matthew warren, energy supply association of australia: how are the dynamics of the east coast gas...
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Matthew Warren, Chief Executive Officer, Energy Supply Association of Australia delivered this presentation at the East Coast Gas Outlook conference. The event brings together industry professionals and government representative to discuss opportunities and options to secure gas supply on the east coast of Australia. For more information, please visit the conference website: http://www.informa.com.au/eastcoastgasconference.TRANSCRIPT
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The changing dynamics of east coast gas markets
Sydney
22 October 2013
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• 36 downstream energy companies
• The “UN” of gas policy in Australia
• Upstream gas suppliers, retailers,
pipeline owners, customers
esaa
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• Australia has been deindustrializing for a
generation – what can/do we want to do
about it?
• East Coast reservation policy doesn’t
make sense
• Preservation or transformation
Outline
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2005-13 NEM target demand (GWh)
192,000
194,000
196,000
198,000
200,000
202,000
204,000
206,000
208,000
210,000
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
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• Detailed modeling three years away
• Initial estimates of changes:
– 50 per cent – AUD/industrial demand
– 15 per cent – price effect
– 15 per cent – PV
Electricity Demand in Australia - AEMO
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Energy price rises – public view
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Eastern states annual energy consumption
growth rate 1960-61 to 2010-11
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Australian energy intensity
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Low growth is a common theme
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Historical consumption
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Historical east coast gas consumption
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Historical consumption
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Demand projections continue to be dialled down
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Demand projections continue to be dialled down
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Demand projections continue to be dialled down
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Gas fired generation likely to slow
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Judisch: Germany: weak carbon price, high
renewables penetration, high gas price
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Gas prices difficult to predict
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Future contingent on fuel prices
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Existing gas and oil infrastructure – Aus vs US
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CSG dominates the supply outlook
• Remaining east coast gas reserves and contingent resources
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East coast gas basins and transmission pipelines
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NSW is most exposed
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4,225
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• 0.1 per cent of NSW Senate vote
• 1.4 per cent of CSG community vote
• Half that of the Smokers’ Rights Party and Bullet Train for Australia party
• One third of the Pirate Party
• One tenth of the Sex Party
Mini Antony Green
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• It’s been gradually occurring for more
than a generation
• Major energy customers are hurting
• Reservation policy isn’t the solution
• Preservation or transformation?
Deindustrialisation