MATERI 8

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*The time for each activity is assumed

to be constant

*Basic network method

*Step:

*Preparing the activity list

*Identify the precedence relations among

activities

*Drawing the network to display predence

relationship graphically

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Event calculation

* tij = time to complete activity from event i to event j

*Ej = earliest time event j can occur based on completion of all predecessor activities

*Lj = latest time event j can occur without delaying the project’s completion

Procedure (forward pass)

*Set Ei= 0 for starting event

*Set Ej = maxi(Ei = tij) where the maximization occurs over all events i which are immediate predecessors of event j

Procedure (backward pass)

*Set Ln = En

*Set Lj = minj (Lj – tij) where the minimization occurs over all events i which are immediate successor of event j

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*Considers the uncertainty in activity time

*Suitable for R&D project types

*Required three times estimates for each activity

Optimistic time estimate (To)

Most likely time estimate (Tm)

Pessimistic time estimate (Tp)

*Assumes that the actual activity times are distributed according to the beta distribution

*When the individual activity times are uncertainty, the total project completion time will also be uncertainty

*Assumes that the distribution of project completion times is normal

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*The average or expected time :

*Variance for each activity i on the critical path

*S = √∑Rvar

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*Peluang Proyek (dipercepat atau diperlambat)

*T(d) : target (dipercepat atau diperlambat)

*TE : waktu estimasi (yang diharapkan)