1

MASON-DIXON FLORIDA POLL JULY 2015

BUSH TOP CHOICE OF STATE GOP VOTERS RUBIO DROPS, WALKER RUNS 3RD -- AHEAD OF TRUMP

CLINTON HAS WIDE LEAD AMONG DEMOCRATS

ANALYSIS By: J. Bradford Coker, Managing Director Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.

2015, All Rights Reserved

After falling slightly behind Marco Rubio immediately following his fellow Floridians official announcement, Jeb Bush has separated himself from the growing pack of Republican presidential candidates in the Sunshine State. Statewide, 28% of Republicans said they would vote for Bush if the Florida primary were held today, Rubio is 12-points behind in second with 16%, Scott Walker has moved into third place with an impressive with 13% and the center of the GOP political universe of late -- Donald Trump -- is in fourth with 11%. The remaining twelve candidates are all in single-digits and 13% are undecided.

2

This is the first Florida poll taken entirely since Trumps remarks regarding John McCains Vietnam War service. His 11% showing in Florida is far below his support in recent national polls. This could be the result of the home state advantage of both Bush and Rubio. However, the fact that Walker has slipped ahead of him may be a stronger sign that his candidacy is fading. Furthermore, there is a clear ceiling that Trump has among Florida Republicans. When asked if they are considering a vote for Trump, a large majority (58%) said they were not. Only 27% gave an indication that Trump was under their serious consideration. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is still far ahead of the primary field. Statewide, 58% support Clinton, while 17% back Bernie Sanders, Martin OMalley gets just 2%, Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb registered no support and 23% are undecided.

3

*** 500 REGISTERED REPUBLICAN VOTERS ****

QUESTION: If the Republican presidential primary election in Florida were held today, and the choice was among the following list of candidates, which one would get your vote? (ORDER ROTATED) Jeb Bush 28% Marco Rubio 16% Scott Walker 13% Donald Trump 11% Mike Huckabee 5% Ted Cruz 4% Rand Paul 3% John Kasich 3% Carly Fiorina 2% Ben Carson 1% Bobby Jindal 1% Rick Santorum - Rick Perry - Chris Christie - Lindsey Graham - George Pataki - Undecided (NOT READ) 13% QUESTION: Are you considering voting for Donald Trump, or not? YES 27% NO 58% NOT SURE 15%

4

*** 500 REGISTERED DEMOCRATIC VOTERS **** QUESTION: If the Democratic presidential primary election in Florida were held today, and the choice was among the following list of candidates, which one would get your vote? (ORDER ROTATED) Hillary Clinton 58% Bernie Sanders 17% Martin OMalley 2% Lincoln Chafee - Jim Webb - Undecided (NOT READ) 23%

5

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Mason-Dixon Florida Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from July 20 through July 23, 2015. For this section of the poll 500 registered Republican voters and 500 registered Democratic voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed on land-lines were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Those interviewed on cell phones were selected from a list of working cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect party registration by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than 4.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all party voters were surveyed.