xp presidential poll round 18 - images.infomoney.com.br · 4 highlights political analysis the 18th...
TRANSCRIPT
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Political Analysis
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register# # Interviews Margin of ErrorMay Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018 1,000 3.2May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018 1,000 3.2
May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - - - -June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018 1,000 3.2June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018 1,000 3.2June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018 1,000 3.2June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 1,000 3.2July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018 1,000 3.2July Wk2 Jul-09 to Jul-11 BR-09898/2018 1,000 3.2July Wk3 Jul-16 to Jul-18 BR-02843/2018 1,000 3.2July Wk4 Jul-23 to Jul-25 BR-07756/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 BR-06820/2018 1,000 3.2August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 BR-08988/2018 1,000 3.2August Wk3 Aug-13 to Aug-15 BR-02075/2018 1,000 3.2August Wk4 Aug-20 to Aug-22 BR-07829/2018 1,000 3.2August Wk5 Aug-27 to Aug-29 BR-07252/2018 1,000 3.2
September Wk1 Sep-03 to Sep-05 BR-00339/2018 2,000 2.2September Wk2 Sep-10 to Sep-12 BR-07277/2018 2,000 2.2September Wk3 Sep-17 to Sep-19 BR-02995/2018 2,000 2.2
XP Presidential Polls
Conducted by: Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe) Coverage: National Method: Phone call interviews
XP Presidential Poll - Details
All files from previous polls and scenarios breakdowns are available here.
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Political Analysis
GENDER REGIONMALE 48% NORTH 8%FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%
AGE SOUTHEAST 43%16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%18 TO 34 YO 34% MIDWEST 7%35 TO 54 YO 39% TYPE OF CITY+55 YO 26% CAPITAL TOWNS 24%
OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 10%WORKING 59% COUNTRY TOWNS 66%NOT WORKING 41% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 34%E CLASS (< 1 MW) 21% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 23%D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 28% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 14%C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 35% > 500.000 HAB 29%B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 15% RELIGIONA CLASS (> 20 MW) 1% CATHOLIC 61%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 24% EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 8%ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 7% SPIRITTUALISM 3%MIDDLE SCHOOL 31% ADVENTITST 1%HIGH SCHOOL 42% OTHER 4%HIGHER EDUCATION 20% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)
Voter profile: current week distribution
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis Highlights
The 18th round of XP Presidential Poll shows that Fernando Haddad (PT) rose 6 points since last week,
from 10% to 16%, and is now the vice-leader, five points ahead of Ciro Gomes (PDT). Jair Bolsonaro has
increased his performance since the beginning of September and now leads with 28% of voters intension,
two points above last week.
Haddad’s rejection increased for the fifth consecutive week, reaching 60%, while Bolsonaro’s rejection
remains unchanged at 57%. The front-runners are said to be the worst possible presidents for Brazil –
32% say Haddad would be the worst one and 30% say Bolsonaro.
In second round scenarios, Bolsonaro increased marginally his advantage over Haddad from 40% x 38%
to 41% x 38%. Bolsonaro improved his performance against Geraldo Alckmin (they are tied, 39% to 39%)
and against Marina Silva (he leads, 40% x 35%). He still loses to Ciro Gomes, 40% to 35%.
For the first time, there’s no meaningful difference in results when the voters are informed that Haddad is
“supported by Lula” – the PT candidate receives only one extra p.p.
Strategic vote: Voters were asked for the first time if they would change their vote in first round in order to
avoid a second round with a candidate they dislike: 37% said “yes” and 57% said “no”. The voters more
likely to change the decision are those who support Alvaro Dias, Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes – more
than a half said they would change.
Among the voters of the four right-wing candidates (Geraldo Alckmin, Alvaro Dias, Henrique Meirelles,
and João Amoedo), 47% said they would cast a strategic vote to avoid a candidate they dislike in the
second round.
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Political Analysis Voting Intention - Spontaneous
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September Week 3
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Political Analysis Scenario 1
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September Week 3
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Political Analysis Scenario 2 – Haddad with Lula’s support
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September Week 3
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Political Analysis Second option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis
FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA
JAIR BOLSONARO
GERALDO ALCKMIN
MARINA SILVA
CIRO GOMES
ÁLVARO DIAS
UNDECIDED
ÁLVARO DIAS 2% 7% 5% 1% 2% 0% 0%CIRO GOMES 35% 6% 19% 19% 0% 2% 0%FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 2% 6% 16% 32% 8% 0%GERALDO ALCKMIN 8% 10% 0% 16% 10% 18% 0%GUILHERME BOULOS 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0%HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 2% 3% 10% 11% 3% 10% 0%JAIR BOLSONARO 4% 0% 16% 9% 9% 16% 0%MARINA SILVA 13% 3% 14% 0% 12% 4% 0%JOÃO AMOÊDO 1% 7% 2% 1% 3% 0% 0%VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0%CABO DACIOLO 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%JOÃO GOULART FILHO 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0%DIDN'T ANSWER 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%DON'T KNOW 5% 9% 19% 7% 0% 0% 0%NONE/BLANK/NULL 27% 48% 6% 15% 24% 38% 0%HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?Choice in scenario 2
2nd Option
Second option
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis Vote Migration MICRODATA SPECIAL
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis 2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis 2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis 2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis Voter conviction
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.
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Political Analysis Rejection
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.
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Political Analysis Unfamiliarity
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.
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Political Analysis
Would Surely Vote
Could VoteWouldn't
Vote Dont't Know
EnoughDon'tKnow/
Didn'tAnswerTotal
BOLSONARO 25% 13% 57% 4% 1% 100%
HADDAD 16% 12% 60% 10% 1% 100%
CIRO 13% 25% 54% 7% 1% 100%
ALCKMIN 8% 22% 60% 7% 1% 100%
MARINA 5% 19% 67% 6% 1% 100%
AMÔEDO 5% 14% 44% 36% 1% 100%
A. DIAS 5% 17% 51% 26% 1% 100%
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T
VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Conviction, recognition and rejection.
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September Week 3
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Political Analysis Expectation of Victory
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
September Week 3
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Political Analysis Interest in the election
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis Veto
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis Strategic vote
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Political Analysis How the angry vote?
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
This week, 28% of voters reject both Haddad and Bolsonaro. This is how they vote.
MICRODATA SPECIAL
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Political Analysis Vote migration (to Haddad)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Distribution of votes in the 2nd round scenario between Haddad & Bolsonaro
MICRODATA SPECIAL
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Political Analysis Vote migration (to Bolsonaro)
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Distribution of votes in the 2nd round scenario between Haddad & Bolsonaro
MICRODATA SPECIAL
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Political Analysis Vote migration (to none, blank, null, DA & DK )
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Distribution of votes in the 2nd round scenario between Haddad & Bolsonaro
MICRODATA SPECIAL
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Political Analysis Disclaimer
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).
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confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.
Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.