mary erickson nccoos - ioos association...ecologicalforecastinggaps: habs,(hypoxia,(pathogens mary...
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Ecological Forecasting Gaps:HABs, Hypoxia, Pathogens
Mary EricksonNOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science
September 26, 2016
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Overview
• Ecological Forecasting 101• NOAA’s Ecological Forecasting Roadmap• Transitioning• Discussion Questions
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What Are Ecological Forecasts?• Ecological forecasts predict likely changes in ecosystems in response to environmental drivers and resulting impacts to people, economies and communities.
• Ecological forecasts provide early warnings of the possible effects of ecosystem changes (e.g., harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, etc.) on coastal systems and human well-being with sufficient lead time to allow for corrective or mitigative actions.
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High Demand for Ecoforecasting
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Ecoforecasting: Missions and Mandates“Our job is to build an understanding of the Earth, the atmosphere, and the oceans to transform that understanding into critical environmental intelligence: timely, actionable information, developed from reliable and authoritative science, that gives us foresight about future conditions”
Dr. Kathy Sullivan, NOAA Administrator
• Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Amendments (HABRCA) Act of 2014 • Chesapeake Bay Executive Order
• Coastal Zone Management Act
• Coral Reef Protection Executive Order/Coral Reef Conservation Act
• Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act
• Clean Water Act
• National Marine Sanctuaries Act
• Marine Mammal Protection Act
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NOAA’s Ecological Forecasting: Who we are, what we will achieve
• Strong science to enable delivery of forecasts• Delivery of more products and services building on existing NOAA and partner capacity
• Delivery of more consistent, efficient, reliable, and national forecasts (tailored to region-specific needs)
Ecological Forecasting Portfolio Manager: Allison Allen
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NOAA’s Ecological Forecasting: Priority Areas and Geographies of Interest
HABS• Gulf of Maine • Pacific Northwest• Lake Erie • California• Texas/Florida
Hypoxia• Gulf of Mexico• Chesapeake Bay
Pathogens • Chesapeake Bay • Delaware Bay• Pacific Northwest
Habitat
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Next Steps for Ecological ForecastingShort-Term: Better define and agree upon the gaps• Identify specific needs most critical to supporting forecasts • Define a national strategy for cells and toxin detection• Prioritize operational forecasting and research observing and modeling needs by region• Develop a blended approach of human-based detection methods, autonomous sensors to maximize sustained operation of sentinel sites
Long-Term• Build on NOAA and IOOS RA partnership to seek resources, fill gaps in models and observations to continue to develop and transition HAB forecasts in critical regions
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NOAA’s R2X
DEPLOYRL9
DEMONSTRATERLs 6-‐8
DEVELOPRLs 3-‐5
RESEARCHRLs 1-‐2
Research & Development
Transition
Operations & Applications
Tailored to RequirementsBroadly relevant to NOAA
missionSCOPE OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
LIFE CYCLE PH
ASE O
F SCIEN
CE &
TECHNOLOGY
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Research Transition Acceleration Program(RTAP)
Tier 1 examples• Mid-Atlantic pathogens models• Chesapeake Bay hypoxia forecast• Lake Erie 3-D HAB forecast• Alaska CLIMate Project
Accelerate toward RL8 (“mission-ready”) in 1-3 years
FY 17 “Blue Book” p.23http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/nbo/
10
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Criteria for an Operational ForecastScientifically vetted • Have components been published? • Are they scientifically acceptable?
User vetted• Are the vetted forecasts useful?
Transferable• All capability does not depend on one expert or computer
Can meet operational definition• SOPs, training materials, skill assessment criteria, strategy for resources
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Operational DefinitionInstitutional
• Base-funded, not grant-funded• Standard operational procedures• User training• Annual assessment
Reliable• No single point of failure• Operational on a 5 (or 7) day-week (analysts available every day)
• Model operators fix problems before the forecasters see themScheduled
• Forecasts produced as scheduled (daily, semi-weekly, weekly) • Model guidance produced as scheduled before forecasts• Standard distribution
Forecasts are analysis• Models are guidance, interpretations are forecasts
• This is standard for weather forecasts
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Discussion Questions
Transitioning operational forecasts from NOAA to regional partners • Is this a feasible approach? What do you see as the major challenges?• Does your RA have the requisite capacity? • What are the opportunities, the challenges? • How do we create a path forward? The key steps?• Relationship between forecast transition and observations:–How do we move forward with filling the gaps in observations and the need to support forecasting events?
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Let’s Discuss!
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2004Initial Field Research Begins (GLERL,
NCCOS)
2009Experimental Forecast Begins
2012Seasonal Forecast Begins
2014First Concept of Operations drafted
2016/2017 Planned IOC/FOC
Development and Transition Timeline
The good•1600+ bulletin subscribers
•13,571 web hits during event
•Highly visible product
•Instrumental in providing warning for 2014 Toledo event
•Made on-the-fly modifications at direct request of Ohio responders
The not-so-good•Loss of MERIS led to redesign for MODIS (single point of failure)
•Field data were initially ad-hoc
•Did not obtain early corporate NOAA buy-in
–no CONOPS until FY15–No funding champion
Challenges in Transition: Lake Erie HAB