maruti suzuki india (maruti) - icici...
TRANSCRIPT
ICIC
I S
ecurit
ies –
Retail E
quit
y R
esearch
Result
Update
April 26, 2019
CMP: | 6900 Target: | 5815 ( -16%) Target Period: 12 months
months
Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
SELL
Tapering growth to weigh on rich valuations…
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported a weak operational performance in Q4FY19,
especially on the margin front, posting 10.5% EBITDA margins against our
expectation of 12.0%. Total operating income was at | 21,459 crore, up 1.4%
YoY, with the beat being led by higher-than-expected ASPs. Average
discounts amounted to | 15,125/unit, down 37.8% QoQ. Consequent PAT
for the quarter was down 4.6% YoY to | 1,796 crore. Volumes for Q4FY19
were at 4.6 lakh units, down 0.7% YoY. The company declared a dividend
of | 80/share for FY19.
Market leadership maintained, foremost in BS-VI model launch
FY19 was a difficult year for the domestic automobile space with growth
challenging, particularly in H2FY19. Demand sentiments were soured by a
concurrent increase in fuel, insurance as well as finance costs during the
seasonally important Dussehra-Diwali period. For FY19, total domestic sales
growth in the automobile space were at 5.2% YoY wherein PV volumes were
at 33.8 lakh units, up 2.7% YoY. MSIL in FY19 clocked domestic volumes of
17.3 lakh units, up 5.3% YoY and maintained its market leadership, ending
the year at 51.2% market share, up 120 bps YoY. Separately, the company
was at the forefront of PV OEMs in terms of BS-VI compliant vehicle
launches, introducing new emission norms compliant Baleno and Alto
models recently at a price increase of ~| 15,000-20,000/unit.
Margin disappointment continues, limited expansion under way
EBITA margins hit a recent low of 9.8% in Q3FY19 amid adverse currency
movement, higher commodity price and one-offs in employee costs. These
pressure points were expected to ease QoQ but MSIL posted EBITDA
margins of 10.5% in Q4FY19 against our estimates of 12%. The reason for
the same was attributed to higher commodity prices, adverse currency
movement and initial ramp up costs associated with Suzuki’s new plant in
Gujarat. Going forward, with commodity prices inching up, we foresee
limited scope for margin improvement and build in a limited 20 bps
expansion over FY19-21E.
Valuation & Outlook
Going forward, we expect sales and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 9.3% & 8.2%,
respectively, in FY19-21E. We build in 5.7% volume CAGR and EBITDA
margin trajectory of 12.5-13% over FY19-21E. We value MSIL at | 5815 i.e.
20x P/E (in line with long term averages) on FY21E EPS of | 290.7 and assign
a SELL rating on the stock. We do not deny the underlying opportunity
presented by underpenetrated 4-W market domestically. However, we will
wait for valuations to correct amid muted growth prospects in the near term
before any meaningful change in our stance. On the B/S front, MSIL remains
a cash rich company with healthy ~15% return ratios.
Key Financials FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR (FY19-21E)
Net Sales 68,034.8 79,762.7 86,020.3 94,012.4 102,775.9 9.3%
EBITDA 10,353.0 12,061.5 10,999.3 11,806.3 13,363.6 10.2%
EBITDA Margins (%) 15.2 15.1 12.8 12.6 13.0
Net Profit 7,337.7 7,721.8 7,500.6 7,742.8 8,781.9 8.2%
EPS (|) 242.9 255.6 248.3 256.3 290.7
P/E 28.4 27.0 27.8 26.9 23.7
RoNW (%) 20.3 18.5 16.3 15.2 15.6
RoCE (%) 20.3 21.1 16.3 15.9 16.5
Key Financial Summary
Source: ICICI Direct Research, Company
Particulars
Particular Amount
Market Capitalization | 208435.2 Crore
Total Debt | 149.6 Crore
Cash & Investment | 35235.8 Crore
EV | 173349 Crore
52 week H/L (|) 9923 / 6325
Equity capital | 151 Crore
Face value | 5
Key Highlights
Expected margin recovery fails to
come through, up merely 70 bps
QoQ against expectation of 12.0%.
Limited improvement foreseen
over FY19-21E
Management guidance of 4-8% as
volume growth for FY20E
Single digit volume growth and
consequent single digit topline and
bottomline growth to weigh on
valuations
Maintain SELL with a revised target
price of | 5815
Research Analyst
Shashank Kanodia, CFA
Jaimin Desai
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Exhibit 1: Variance analysis
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 2: Change in estimates
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 3: Assumptions
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Q4FY19 Q4FY19E Q4FY18 YoY (Chg %) Q3FY19 QoQ (Chg %) Comments
Total Operating Income 21,459 21,133 21,166 1.4 19,668 9.1Higher-than-expected ASPs help post marginal topline growth despite 0.7%
YoY drop in volumes
Raw Material Expenses 15,424 14,946 14,376 7.3 14,044 9.8 Gross margins contracted on both YoY as well as QoQ basis
Employee Expenses 817 813 828 -1.4 881 -7.3
Other expenses 2,956 2,845 2,946 0.3 2,812 5.1Other expenses came in higher due to adverse foreign currency
movements as well as initial costs associated with new plant ramp up
Operating Profit (EBITDA) 2,263 2,530 3,015 -24.9 1,931 17.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.5 12.0 14.2 -370 bps 9.8 73 bpsMargins for the quarter were substantially lower due to higher raw material
costs as well as higher other expenses
Other Income 868 546 595 45.8 917 -5.4 Other income came in substantially higher than our estimates
Depreciation 810 791 703 15.3 768 5.5
Interest 9 21 273 -96.8 21 -57.3
Total Tax 516.5 679.2 752.3 -31.3 570.8 -9.5Tax rate for the quarter came in lower at 22.3% vs. the usual run rate of 28-
30% due to tax reversals related to some previous years
PAT 1,796 1,585 1,882 -4.6 1,489 20.6
EPS 59.4 52.5 62.3 -4.6 49.3 20.6
Key Metrics
ASP (|) 452,311 443,218 445,983 1.4 441,542 2.4ASPs came in higher than our estimates primarily tracking a decline in
discounts in the marketplace and a change in product mix
Discounts (|) 15,125 25,000 13,880 9.0 24,300 -37.8 Blended discounts were lower than our estimates at | 15,125/unit
Q4FY19 Q4FY19E Q4FY18 YoY (bps) Q3FY19 QoQ (bps)
Rm to Sales 71.9% 70.7% 67.9% 115.1% 71.4% 47.1%
EMP to Sales 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% -3.9% 4.5% -67.3%
Other Exp to Sales 13.8% 13.5% 13.9% 31.1% 14.3% -52.7%
FY21E
(| Crore) Old New % Change Introduced Comments
Total Operating Income 93,113 94,012 1.0 102,776Increase in ASPs offset decline in volume estimates. Introduced FY21E
numbers. Expect a topline growth of 9.3% CAGR over FY19-21E
EBITDA 13,250 11,806 -10.9 13,364
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.2 12.6 -167 bps 13.0Reduce margins estimates tracking weak management commentary and
elevated costs structure amid depreciated rupee
PAT 8,593 7,743 -9.9 8,782
EPS (|) 284 256 -9.9 291Decline in margin estimates leads to decline in PAT estimates for FY20E.
Introduce FY21 numbers
FY20E
Current Earlier Introduced Comments
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY20E FY21E
Total Volumes (nos) 1,568,604 1,779,575 1,862,449 1,967,523 2,026,364 2,080,048
We build in 5.7% CAGR volume growth over FY19-21E.
It includes domestic volume growth of 6% CAGR and
export volume growth of 1% CAGR
Average ASPs (|) 426,353 438,896 445,792 460,773 441,837 476,474
ASPs are expected to perk up following improving
product mix (in favour of Baleno, new Swift, Brezza)
and increase in costs due to regulatory changes
RMC/Unit (|) 297,336 308,922 323,521 341,023 320,018 351,715
Discount (|) 16,774 15,895 18,334 15,000 20,000 15,000 Tapering the discount expectation tracking Q4FY19
results and management commentary
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Conference Call Highlights
Management guidance/outlook and demand
The management guided for 4-8% YoY volume growth in FY20E, with
demand likely to remain particularly soft in Q1FY20E on the back of
general elections
Exports would remain flat YoY in FY20E but the company is hopeful
about Africa market prospects in later years
BS-VI regime would threaten viability of diesel engine products. MSIL
would undertake phased introduction of BS-VI compliant models
throughout the year leading up to Q4FY20E
For FY19, rural volumes grew 10% YoY while urban markets de-grew
2% YoY. In H2FY19, rural markets grew 8.5% YoY against 13% YoY
growth in H1FY19. MSIL’s urban: rural mix is now at 61:39
Sales, costs and margins
Conversion costs (100 bps), ramp-up of the Gujarat plant (70 bps), forex
movement (60 bps) and lower retail sales adversely impacted margins
on YoY basis
MSIL took a price hike in January 2019
The company undertook its periodic wage revision exercise in FY19,
with the next scheduled in FY22
Revenues from exports amounted to | 1,474 crore in Q4FY19 and
| 5,335 crore for full year FY19
Other
The company undertook ~| 4,500 crore of capex during the year, with
a similar outlay expected for FY20E
MSIL’s diesel portfolio was at (as percentage of total portfolio) 23% in
Q4FY19 and 25% for FY19
Average discount levels for the quarter were at | 15,125/unit
Channel inventory is comfortable at 25-28 days of sales
The company currently manufactures Swift and Baleno models in
Gujarat while Q4FY19 procurement from that plant was at ~96,000 units
Royalty rate for the quarter was at 5%, with 40% model slate moved to
the new system that negates forex movement
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Financial story in charts
Exhibit 4: Topline and bottomline trends
43701
49874
57746
68035
79763
86020
94012
102776
2783
3711
4571
73387722
7501
7743
8782
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E
(| crore)
(| crore)
Topline Bottomline
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 5: EBITDA and margin profile
6,605.9
8,978.6
10,353.0
12,061.5
10,999.3
11,806.3
13,363.6
13.2
15.5 15.2 15.1
12.8 12.6
13.0
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(%
)
(| crore)
EBITDA Margins (%)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 6: Domestic vs. Export volumes trend
1051
1054
1171
1305
1445
1654
1754
1859
1969
120
101
122
124 124
126
109 1
09
111
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
('0
00s)
Domestic Exports
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
We expect sales to grow at a CAGR of 9.3% over
FY19-21E. We build in 5.7% volume CAGR
Going forward, we expect EBITDA to grow at a
CAGR of 10.2% in FY19-21E. We build in EBITDA
margin trajectory of 12.5-13% in FY19-21E
We expect domestic volumes to grow at a CAGR of
6.0% over FY19-21E while export volumes are
expected to be largely flat. Blended volume CAGR is
expected at 5.7% CAGR in FY19-21E
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Exhibit 7: Domestic market PV share
46.8 46.247.2 47.3 47.4
50.5 50.4 50.3 50.0
52.5 52.1 51.7 51.2
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
(%
)
Domestic Market Share
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 8: Annual discount trends and expectations
16951
19,529 18,898
16,774 15,895
18,334
15,000 15,000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(|)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
MSIL has largely maintained its market leadership
with market share at FY19 end at 51.2%, up 120 bps
on a YoY basis
Discounts for Q4FY19 came in surprisingly low at
| 15,125/unit against our expectation of
| 25,000/unit. Reduced forward estimates
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Exhibit 9: Segment and model wise MSIL volumes
Segment, sub-segment
and model
FY18 FY19 YoY (%) Domestic market
share (%)
Passenger Cars 1,234,571 1,287,023 4.2 58.0
Mini 427,183 379,050 (11.3)
Alto 258,539 259,401 0.3
Wagon-R (old) 168,644 119,649 (29.1)
Compact 748,475 861,804 15.1
Wagon-R (new) - 31,813 -
Swift 175,928 223,924 27.3
Celerio 94,721 103,734 9.5
Dzire 240,124 253,859 5.7
Baleno 190,480 212,330 11.5
Ignis 47,222 36,144 (23.5)
Mid Size 58,913 46,169 (21.6)
Ciaz 58,913 46,169 (21.6)
Utility Vehicles 253,759 264,197 4.1 28.1
Ertiga 66,141 65,263 (1.3)
Gypsy 8,233 3,232 (60.7)
S-Cross 30,923 37,822 22.3
Vitara Brezza 148,462 157,880 6.3
Vans 155,137 178,606 15.1 82.2
Omni 80,583 86,837 7.8
Eeco 74,554 91,769 23.1
-
Passenger Vehicles 1,643,467 1,729,826 5.3 51.2
-
LCV 10,033 23,874 138.0
Total domestic 1,653,500 1,753,700 6.1
-
Total exports 126,074 108,743 (13.7)
-
Grand total 1,779,574 1,862,443 4.7
Source: SIAM, ICICI Direct Research; Domestic market share as of March 2019
Among models, the company realised main growth
across Baleno, Swift in the passenger car category
& Brezza and S-cross in the utility vehicle category
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Exhibit 10: Valuation
Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE
(| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)
FY17 68,035 55.7 243 163.7 28.4 17.5 20.3 20.3
FY18 79,763 17.2 256 5.2 27.0 14.5 18.5 21.1
FY19P 86,020 7.8 248 (2.9) 27.8 15.8 16.3 16.3
FY20E 94,012 9.3 256 3.2 26.9 14.4 15.2 15.9
FY21E 102,776 9.3 291 13.4 23.7 12.4 15.6 16.5
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 11: MSIL currently trades at ~23.7x FY21E EPS of |291
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Apr-09
Jul-09
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Apr-10
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Jul-11
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(|)
Price 33x 30x 26x 23x 19x 15x 12x
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 8
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Exhibit 12: Recommendation history vs. consensus
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Apr-19Jan-19Oct-18Jul-18May-18Feb-18Nov-17Aug-17May-17Feb-17Nov-16Aug-16May-16
(%
)(|)
Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY
Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 13: Top 10 shareholders
Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
1 Suzuki Motor Corp 31-Dec-18 56.2 169.8 0.0
2 Life Insurance Corporation of India 31-Dec-18 6.7 20.2 0.4
3 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 31-Mar-19 1.4 4.3 0.0
4 BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 31-Mar-19 1.1 3.3 0.0
5 SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. 31-Dec-18 1.1 3.2 0.0
6 Axis Asset Management Company Limited 31-Mar-19 0.9 2.6 -0.2
7 ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 31-Mar-19 0.7 2.2 0.3
8 UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd. 31-Mar-19 0.7 2.2 0.1
9 Nomura Asset Management Co., Ltd. 31-Oct-18 0.7 2.2 0.0
10 Fidelity Management & Research Company 28-Feb-19 0.6 1.9 -0.1
Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 14: Recent activity
Investor name Value ($ M) Shares(M) Investor name Value ($ M) Shares(M)
T. Rowe Price International (UK) Ltd. 37.9 0.4 Baron Capital Management, Inc. -60.1 -0.6
Life Insurance Corporation of India 42.0 0.4 Causeway Capital Management LLC -26.2 -0.2
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 29.3 0.3 Axis Asset Management Company Limited -16.3 -0.2
Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) 21.9 0.2 Fidelity Management & Research Company -12.4 -0.1
Mirae Asset Global Investments (India) Pvt. Ltd. 18.9 0.2 FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Ltd. -10.0 -0.1
Buys Sells
Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 15: Shareholding pattern
(in %) Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
Promoter 56.2 56.2 56.2 56.2 56.2
FII 25.4 23.9 23.0 22.7 22.3
DII 14.3 15.7 16.0 13.4 13.4
Others 4.1 4.3 4.9 7.7 8.1
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 9
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Financial Summary
Exhibit 16: Profit and loss statement | crore
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E
Total operating Income 79,763 86,020 94,012 102,776
Growth (%) 7.8 9.3 9.3
Raw Material Expenses 54,975 60,254 67,097 73,158
Employee Expenses 2,834 3,255 3,522 3,812
Marketing Expenses 0 0 0 0
Administrative Expenses 0 0 0 0
Other expenses 9,892 11,512 11,587 12,442
Total Operating Expenditure 67,701 75,021 82,206 89,412
EBITDA 12,062 10,999 11,806 13,364
Growth (%) -9 7 13
Depreciation 2,758 3,019 3,290 3,597
Interest 346 76 50 25
Other Income 2,046 2,561 2,596 2,804
PBT 11,003 10,466 11,061 12,546
Others 0 1 2 3
Total Tax 3,282 2,965 3,318 3,764
PAT 7,722 7,501 7,743 8,782
Growth (%) -3 3 13
EPS (|) 256 248 256 291
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 17: Cash flow statement | crore
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E
Profit after Tax 7,722 7,501 7,743 8,782
Add: Depreciation 2,758 3,019 3,290 3,597
(Inc)/dec in Current Assets -50 -504 -875 -747
Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions 2,584 -1,331 784 1,173
Others 346 76 50 25
CF from operating activities 13,359 8,760 10,993 12,830
(Inc)/dec in Investments -6,527 -975 -3,000 -4,700
(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -3,701 -4,542 -4,500 -4,500
Others -218 17 -219 -211
CF from investing activities -10,447 -5,499 -7,719 -9,411
Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 0 0 0 0
Inc/(dec) in loan funds -373 39 -50 -50
Dividend paid & dividend tax -2,900 -2,900 -3,081 -3,262
Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium 0 0 0 0
Others 419 -292 -50 -25
CF from financing activities -2,854 -3,153 -3,182 -3,338
Net Cash flow 58 108 92 81
Opening Cash 13 71 179 271
Closing Cash 71 179 271 352
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 18: Balance Sheet | crore
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E
Liabilities
Equity Capital 151 151 151 151
Reserve and Surplus 41,606 45,990 50,652 56,172
Total Shareholders funds 41,757 46,141 50,803 56,323
Total Debt 111 150 100 50
Deferred Tax Liability 559 564 564 564
Others Liabilties 1,612 2,076 2,116 2,156
Total Liabilities 44,039 48,931 53,583 59,092
Assets
Gross Block 21,424 26,492 32,092 36,592
Less: Acc Depreciation 8,065 11,084 14,374 17,971
Net Block 13,359 15,408 17,717 18,620
Capital WIP 2,126 1,600 500 500
Total Fixed Assets 15,485 17,008 18,217 19,120
Investments 35,290 36,515 39,665 44,515
Inventory 3,161 3,326 3,735 4,083
Debtors 1,462 2,310 2,576 2,816
Loans and Advances 3 16 9 10
Other Current Assets 2,007 1,485 1,692 1,850
Cash 71 179 271 352
Total Current Assets 6,704 7,316 8,283 9,111
Creditors 10,497 9,633 10,303 11,263
Provisions 560 624 721 788
Other current Liabilities 4,274 3,743 3,760 3,905
Total Current Liabilities 15,331 14,001 14,784 15,957
Net Current Assets -8,627 -6,685 -6,502 -6,846
Other Assets 1,891 2,093 2,202 2,303
Application of Funds 44,039 48,931 53,583 59,092
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 19: Key ratios
(Year-end March) FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E
Per share data (|)
EPS 255.6 248.3 256.3 290.7
Cash EPS 346.9 348.2 365.2 409.8
BV 1,382.3 1,527.5 1,681.8 1,864.5
DPS 80.0 80.0 85.0 90.0
Cash Per Share 2.4 5.9 9.0 11.7
Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.1 12.8 12.6 13.0
PBIT / Net sales (%) 11.7 9.3 9.1 9.5
PAT Margin (%) 9.7 8.7 8.2 8.5
Inventory days 14.5 14.1 14.5 14.5
Debtor days 6.7 9.8 10.0 10.0
Creditor days 48.0 40.9 40.0 40.0
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 18.5 16.3 15.2 15.6
RoCE 21.1 16.3 15.9 16.5
RoIC 91.7 58.1 52.2 57.2
Valuation Ratios (x)
P/E 27.0 27.8 26.9 23.7
EV / EBITDA 14.5 15.8 14.4 12.4
EV / Net Sales 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6
Market Cap / Sales 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
Price to Book Value 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.7
Solvency Ratios
Debt/EBITDA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt / Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current Ratio 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Quick Ratio 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 10
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Exhibit 20: ICICI Direct Research coverage universe (Auto & Auto Ancillary)
Sector / Company CMP M Cap
(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E
Amara Raja (AMARAJ) 670 630 Hold 11448 27.6 29.8 34.8 24.3 22.5 19.2 12.8 11.5 10.0 23.3 22.1 22.4 16.0 15.2 15.5
Apollo Tyre (APOTYR) 208 225 Buy 11921 12.7 14.2 22.5 15.8 14.1 8.9 6.7 6.7 5.7 7.8 9.1 11.0 7.4 9.1 11.1
Ashok Leyland (ASHLEY) 89 85 Hold 26007 5.3 6.4 7.8 16.6 13.9 11.4 7.3 6.6 5.0 28.1 28.2 31.9 21.9 23.2 24.3
Bajaj Auto (BAAUTO) 3068 2380 Hold 88764 140.6 149.7 167.2 17.8 16.7 14.9 11.9 11.3 9.3 22.9 21.1 21.7 21.5 20.3 20.2
Balkrishna Ind. (BALIND) 929 820 Hold 17968 38.2 42.5 49.8 21.1 18.9 16.2 14.2 11.6 9.5 22.4 21.0 22.4 18.1 21.0 22.4
Bharat Forge (BHAFOR) 700 535 Buy 32590 16.2 23.5 27.6 29.0 20.0 17.0 13.9 11.5 9.9 18.2 21.1 23.3 17.3 20.8 21.4
Bosch (MICO) 17987 17565 Hold 54898 449.1 545.6 622.9 40.4 33.2 29.1 25.1 22.4 18.9 14.4 14.9 15.2 21.4 22.2 22.6
Eicher Motors (EICMOT) 30000 21250 Hold 55589 718.9 848.4 1112.9 27.2 24.6 18.9 19.0 16.7 12.3 39.1 34.6 35.3 29.9 26.0 26.4
Escorts (ESCORT) 734 700 Hold 9002 28.1 40.7 44.1 23.8 16.5 15.2 14.2 10.6 9.3 18.8 20.9 20.8 13.5 16.5 15.3
Exide Industries (EXIIND) 214 235 Hold 18207 8.2 8.5 9.6 28.4 24.0 23.4 15.2 13.8 12.3 19.1 18.0 18.7 13.0 12.4 12.9
Hero Moto (HERHON) 2610 3000 Buy 52112 185.1 171.5 196.1 14.2 15.3 13.4 8.7 9.2 7.9 42.4 37.5 38.6 31.4 26.5 27.1
JK Tyre & Ind (JKIND) 89 82 Hold 2017 2.9 10.0 22.0 3.9 8.6 3.9 9.2 5.8 4.1 7.7 12.2 16.1 3.6 12.9 19.2
Mahindra CIE (MAHAUT) 229 275 Buy 8674 14.5 17.0 19.1 16.6 14.1 12.6 9.4 7.5 6.5 12.8 13.2 13.0 13.2 15.5 16.2
Maruti Suzuki (MARUTI) 6900 5815 Sell 204813 255.6 248.3 256.3 27.0 27.8 26.9 14.5 15.8 14.4 21.1 16.3 15.9 18.5 16.3 15.2
Motherson (MOTSUM) 145 125 Hold 45711 5.1 5.3 7.0 25.7 24.5 18.6 9.3 8.5 6.8 16.3 15.2 18.0 17.4 15.7 18.0
Tata Motors (TELCO) 217 145 Hold 64510 26.8 -83.4 16.6 5.6 NA 9.1 2.4 3.3 2.6 9.1 5.1 9.9 10.3 5.9 12.6
Wabco India (WABTVS) 6304 7000 Hold 11956 143.8 172.2 212.3 46.9 39.2 31.8 30.4 26.2 20.8 17.9 17.8 18.2 25.1 25.7 26.0
RoE (%)EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%)
Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 11
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined
as the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 12
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
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