market pulse survey, may 2015

MARKET PULSEMay 2015

1

Survey Methodology

Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS

Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month and the last year.

2

LASTTRANSACTION

3

MedianSale Price Down 3.3% MTM, Down 0.9%YTY

Q: What was the sale price of your last closed transaction?

$439,000$450,000

$435,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

2014

2015

YTD

Median

4

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

4/10TransactionsClosed BelowAsking Price

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Over Below At

5


Premium Paid OverAsking Price Decreased

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

6.5%

10%

8.0% 8.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

2014

YTD

2015

Average

6


Discount on Asking Price Declines

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

20142015YTD

Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0 -8.0 -10%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

7


65% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%Ja

n-14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

8


Number of Offers Received Declines

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.7

3.6

2.8

Average

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

9


Listing Price Reductions Down

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

20%

25% 26%28%

33%

29%31% 31% 31%

23%

28%25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

10


% of Previous Renters Declining

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Ja

n-14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

11


Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%Ja

n-14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

12


Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%Ja

n-14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

% First-time Buyers Long Run Average

13


Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended use of the property?

82%73% 79%

10%19% 13%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other

14


International Buyers Fluctuate

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

% International Buyers Long Run Average

15


MARKET CONDITIONS

16

Floor Calls from Potential Clients Increased

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Last MonthDown Flat Up

17


ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsIncrease

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Last Month

Down Flat Up

18


Open HouseTraffic Up from LastYear

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

Last Month Down Flat Up

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

LastYear

19

Auctions Steady

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15

LastYear

20

All Cash Purchases Down

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15

LastYear

21

Majority of REALTORS Expect Similar/BetterMarketConditionsOver the NextYear

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

Worsen Same Improve

22


Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions toWorsen

There are no employment opportunities in this area, there are not many investorseither.

There are many REALTORS without a real estate license and their brokers allowit.

Low inventory of houses.

Prices are too high and many are being priced out.

Fewer sellers entering the market; higher prices will limit opportunities for buyers.

Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?

23


What are REALTORS Saying?Inventory is still limited and buyers are hesitant to pay asking price.

Millennials dont seem to be moving to buy.

Appraisal issues continue to hurt transactions. Issues with solar panel appraisals.

Prices seem to be rising too quickly. I hope we are not in another bubble.

The market is becoming overheated in the under $600k price range.

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?

24

Top 10 Counties

Q: In which county do you live?

April 2015 May 2015

1 Los Angeles Los Angeles

2 San Diego San Diego

3 Riverside Alameda

4 Orange Riverside

5 San Bernardino Santa Clara

6 Sacramento Sacramento

7 San Mateo Orange

8 Santa Clara Fresno

9 Alameda Contra Costa

10 San Francisco San Mateo

25


market pulse survey, may 2015

Documents

closed transaction

j market pulse surveysource

n market pulse surveysource

market areafor

market pulsemay

price declinesq

overasking price decreasedq

online survey