market pulse-october 2015 public

7/24/2019 Market Pulse-October 2015 Public

1/24

MARKET PULSEOctober 2015

1


2/24

Survey Methodology

Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS

Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month and the last year.

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3/24

LASTTRANSACTION

3


4/24

More thanHalf AreSelling atoraboveAsking Price

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

27%

47%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

J a n - 1

4

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1

4

S e p - 1

4

O c t - 1

4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1

5

J u n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1

5

S e p - 1

5

O c t - 1

5

Over Below At

4

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


5/24

BuyersAre Paying aSmaller Premiumover theAskingPrice WhenComparedtoSeptember

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

8.4%

11.0%

8.9%

0.0%2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Average

5



6/24

PercentagesPaidBelowAskingPriceWas the Highestsince Dec 2014

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12%-13%-11%-11%-11%-11% -7.0 -11% -9.6 -11%-10%-12%

6



7/24

MarketRemainedCompetitiveasTwo-thirds of Properties Received MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

51%

63% 64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

J a n - 1

4

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1

4

S e p - 1

4

O c t - 1

4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1

5

J u n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1

5

S e p - 1

5

O c t - 1

5

7



8/24

NumberofOffers ReceivedWasthe Highest inSixMonths

0.00.5

1.0

1.5

2.02.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

J a n - 1

4

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1

4

S e p - 1

4

O c t - 1

4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1

5

J u n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1

5

S e p - 1

5

O c t - 1

5

2.3 2.4

3.2

Average

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

8



9/24

One-third ofPropertiesHadTheir Listing PriceReduced, the Highest in the Last 12 Months

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

33%

27%

32%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1

4

S e p - 1

4

O c t - 1

4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1

5

J u n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1

5

S e p - 1

5

O c t - 1

5

9



10/24

AlmostHalfofBuyerswerePreviousRenters,Highest since March 2014

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

31%

41%

48%

10



11/24

Sellers Becoming Renters Remained Flat

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

18% 18%18%

11



12/24

Share of First-time Buyers Increased

Q:Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

29%

34%31%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%25%

30%

35%

40%45%

J a n - 1

4

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1

4

S e p - 1

4

O c t - 1

4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1

5

J u n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1

5

S e p - 1

5

O c t - 1

5

% First-time Buyers Long Run Average

12



13/24

International BuyersRose for theSecondMonth

Q:Was the buyer an internationalclient (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

7.6%7.0%

10.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

J a n - 1

4

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1

4

S e p - 1

4

O c t - 1

4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1

5

J u n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1

5

S e p - 1

5

O c t - 1

5

% International Buyers Long Run Average

13



14/24

MajorityPurchases are Primary Residences

Q:What was the intended use of the property?

77%

62% 66%

16%

28% 23%

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%

70%80%90%

100%

J a n - 1

4

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1

4

S e p - 1

4

O c t - 1

4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1

5

J u n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1

5

S e p - 1

5

O c t - 1

5

Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other

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15/24

MARKETCONDITIONS

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16/24

REALTORSContinued toReceiveFewer FloorCallssince the PeakinApril2015

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y -

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1

4

S e p - 1

4

O c t - 1

4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y -

J u n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1

5

S e p - 1

5

O c t - 1

5

Last MonthDown Flat Up

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17/24

ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsSlowing Down

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%50%

60%

70%

F e b

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1

4

S e p - 1

4

O c t - 1

4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1

5

F e b

- 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1

5

J u n - 1

5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1

5

S e p - 1

5

O c t - 1

5

Last MonthDown Flat Up

17

SERIES: Market Pulse Survey

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS


18/24

Open HouseTrafficContinuetoDip, Partly Due toSeasonality

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

Down Flat Up

18




19/24

Auctions Declining

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-1

Down Flat Up

19




20/24

AllCashPurchasesContinuetoDecline, asHomePricesRemain onanUpwardTrend

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was

41%

35%

25%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

40%45%50%

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15

Down Flat Up

20




21/24

Four of FiveREALTORSBelieve MarketConditions

will Either Improve or Remain theSame in 2016

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

18%

51%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Worsen Same Improve

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22/24

Why REALTORSExpectMarketConditions toWorsen

Prices are nearly as high as they were justbefore the last crash

Gap between seller expectation and buyeraffordability

Loan requirements becoming more andmore stringent

Election years seem to cause more uncertainty

Q:Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?

22




23/24

REALTORSAreConcernedAboutAffordabilityandInventory

23

2%

5%

2%

4%

6%

9%

12%

16%

21%

22%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

No Concerns

Other

Policies & Regulations

Housing bubble

Rising Interest Rates

Lending & financing

Slow down in economic growth

Home prices overinflated

Lack of Inventory

Decline in housing affordability

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?SERIES: Market Pulse Survey



24/24

What are REALTORSSaying?

We are in a bubble again Alameda

Multiples are down, though still prevalent Los Angeles

There seems to be more distressed sales with reversemortgages - Madera

Lack of water has stopped future development in its tracks San Luis Obispo

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?

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market pulse-october 2015 public

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