market insight -...
TRANSCRIPT
Market Wrap
Participants wise OI Activity
Market Insight 10th Oct, 2018
Bank Nifty Activity
NIFTY 50 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Resistance 10327 10353 10378
Support 10251 10226 10201
NIFTY BANK Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Resistance 24590 24649 24727
Support 24453 24375 24297
NSE Indices Curr Close Points Chg Chg %
NIFTY 10301.05 -47 -0.45
NIFTY 100 10473.55 -50.25 -0.48
NIFTY 500 8562.95 -39.65 -0.46
NIFTY MIDCAP 16003.75 -51.65 -0.32
INDIA VIX 19.755 -0.3925 -1.95
BSE Indices Curr Close Points Chg Chg %
SENSEX 34299.47 -174.91 -0.51
BSE 100 10494.87 -54.72 -0.52
BSE200 4358.3 -22.3 -0.51
BSE 500 13585.36 -67.31 -0.49
BSE MID CAP 13703.35 -21.52 -0.16
BSE SMALL CAP 13501.95 -60.67 -0.45
Sectorial Indices Curr Close Points Chg Chg %
NIFTY AUTO 8732.9 -236.2 -2.63
NIFTY FIN SERVICE 10212.45 36.5 0.36
NIFTY FMCG 27149.65 -556.15 -2.01
NIFTY IT 15369.8 64.6 0.42
NIFTY MEDIA 2398.35 50.05 2.13
NIFTY METAL 3373.75 34.3 1.03
NIFTY PHARMA 9638.75 132.95 1.4
NIFTY PSU BANK 2670.15 -33.35 -1.23
NIFTY PVT BANK 13826.75 -37.8 -0.27
NIFTY REALTY 200.1 -2 -0.99
NIFTY COMMODITIES 3335.25 -24.15 -0.72
NIFTY CONSUMPTION 4405.85 -80.75 -1.8
NIFTY CPSE 2044.05 -21.05 -1.02
NIFTY ENERGY 13591.35 -236.8 -1.71
NIFTY INFRA 2826.55 -2.2 -0.08
NIFTY MNC 12525.4 -74.2 -0.59
NIFTY SERV SECTOR 14033.45 52 0.37
NIFTY PSE 3206.1 -33.8 -1.04
NIFTY BANK 24527.65 -90.7 -0.37
Nifty 50 Top 3 Gainers Curr Close Points Chg Chg %
DR REDDY'S LABS 2454.15 114.05 4.87
ADANI PORTS AND 318.75 14.4 4.73
ZEE ENTERTAINMEN 432.8 18.75 4.53
Nifty 50 Top 3 Losers Curr Close Points Chg Chg %
TATA MOTORS LTD 184.35 -28 -13.19
TITAN CO LTD 749.5 -64.05 -7.87
EICHER MOTORS 21085.7 -1049.05 -4.74
Exchange Advance Decline Unchg
NSE 675 1089 291
BSE 1024 1591 151
NIFTY 50 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Technical View
• Indian shares closed lower on Tuesday as oil prices resumed their climb and the rupee gave up all early gains to hit a fresh record low of 74.27 in the afternoon, raising concerns about inflation and capital outflows.
• Caution ahead of corporate earnings results from prominent companies due this week also weighed on markets.
• Benchmark Brent crude was up 1.10 percent at $84.83 a barrel in European trade, as more evidence emerged that crude exports from Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, are declining ahead of the U.S. sanctions against the country, kicking in from November 4.
• Prices also remained supported amid news that Hurricane Michael will make landfall along the Gulf Coast Wednesday as a Category 3 storm.
• BSE Sensex dropped 174.91 points or 0.51 percent to 34,299.47 while the broader Nifty index ended down 47 points or 0.45 percent at 10,301.05.
• Tata Motors plunged as much as 13 percent after its JLR unit reported 12.3 percent decline in global sales for September.
• Asian Paints, Eicher Motors, HPCL and Titan were among the other prominent decliners, with losses ranging between 4 percent and 8 percent.
• On the positive side, Vedanta, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Zee Entertainment Enterprises and Dr Reddy's Laboratories climbed 3-5 percent.
• Yesterday Nifty opened with the gap up of 40 points but as usual given up early gains and closed down by 47 points. Since last two trading sessions nifty is trying to cross 10420 level but its failing to cross it.
• We will continue our bearish view on market till the time nifty is closing below 10560 for medium term. For short term we might see some consolidation between 10200 to 10500 levels ahead of result season starts.
• As per daily charts Nifty support would be 10200, 10111 and 9951 on downside and resistance would be in the range of 10420 - 10495.
Nifty Derivative Activity
Participants wise OI Activity
1.2
10.4
1.0
3.3
10.4
21.1
40.0
30.6
37.0
42.2
28.7
21.2
55.5
18.2
24.0
24.9
24.8
43.1
21.9
41.8
28.7
14.1
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
Tho
usa
nd
s C
on
trac
ts
CE
PE
0.0
-0.3
0.1
0.4
1.5
5.1
3.8
4.4
2.9
3.8
0.2
1.2
3.0
-0.5
-0.2
1.0
-0.9
-0.4
-1.0
1.0
-0.2
-0.5
(2.00) (1.00)
- 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
Tho
usa
nd
s C
on
trac
ts
CE
PE
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.7
1.0
5.3
5.7
6.6
9.6
14
.2
32
.8
18
.2
5.7
7.2
5.2
3.9
8.4
3.9
2.9
1.9
0.6
2.6
-
10
20
30
40Th
ou
san
ds
Co
ntr
acts
CE
PE
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.1
1.3
1.4
1.5
2.4
8.1
12.1
-0.9
-0.2
1.0
1.6
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.3
-0.4
-0.0
-0.7
(5)
-
5
10
15
Tho
usa
nd
s C
on
trac
ts
CE
PE
Bank Nifty Derivative Activity
OI
OI
OI Change
OI Change
Client 33.6%
DII 16.9%
FII 41.1%
Pro 8.4%
56.7%
73.9%
38.3%
32.5%
43.3%
26.1%
61.7%
67.5%
Client
DII
FII
Pro
Future Index Long Future Index ShortParticipant wise OI Activity ( Fig in ‘000 Contracts) Index Future OI %
Participant Type
Index Fut Activity
Call Activity
Put Activity
Client -2.4 18.8 13.6
DII 1.8 0.0 0.9
FII 1.4 0.8 -17.6
Pro -0.9 -19.5 3.0
• Yesterday NIFTY future was down -0.12% with increase in O I by 2%. • Put O I addition was seen at 10500 which can act as short term support. • Call O I addition was seen at 10700 which can act as short term
resistance. • Current data suggests till the time nifty breaks 10500 or 10700 nifty
should consolidate in given range.
• Friday NIFTY future was up 0.07% with increase in O I by 1.81%. • Put O I Reduction was seen at 10400 followed by 10300. • Call O I reduction was seen at 10600 followed by 10500. • Current option data suggests call and puts both seen unwinding on
Friday. • We are expecting Nifty should consolidate between 10450 and 10700
for next few trading sessions.
• Yesterday NIFTY future closed flat with increase in O I by 1.61%. • Put O I addition was seen at 10550 followed by 10600 which can act
as support till expiry. • Call O I reduction was seen at 10500 followed by 10300. • We are expecting Nifty should close this expiry between 10450 and
10700. • For intraday one can refer given Volatility based levels.
• Yesterday NIFTY future was up 0.31% with decrease in O I by 2.53%. • Put O I Reduction was seen at 10500 followed by 10400. • Call O I reduction was seen at 10600 followed by 10500. • Current option data suggests call and puts both seen unwinding
Yesterday. • we are expecting Nifty should close between 10500 and 10700 in this
Expiry.
Index NIFTY Change
Fut Closing 10314.4 -0.6%
Prem /Disc 13.35 -17.60
OI Qty 2.14 cr. -2.2%
INDIAVIX 19.76 -2.0%
Nifty PCR 0.89
Highest OI 11000 CE 10000 PE
Index BANKNIFTY Change
Fut Closing 24563.5 -0.6%
Prem/Disc 35.85 -58.45
OI Qty 0.26 cr. -10.4%
Highest OI 25000 CE | 24000 PE
• Yesterday NIFTY future was down -0.41% with decrease in O I by 1.18%.
• Put O I Reduction was seen at 10500 and 10400 and Call O I addition was seen at 11000 and 10900.
• Current option data suggests any move above 10800 in Nifty futures can trigger short covering can pull nifty to 11000 till the time 10800 can act as resistance. While Nifty futures immediate support at 10600 and major support at 10500.
• Friday BANKNIFTY future was up 1.26% with increase in O I by 6.12%.
• In weekly expiry major Put O I addition was seen at 25500 followed by 26000 and major Call O I reduction was seen at 26500 followed by 26200.
• Current option data suggests any move above 26500 in Bank Nifty futures can trigger short covering and can pull Bank Nifty to 26700. till the time 26500 can act as resistance. While 26200 and 26000 are support levels.
• Yesterday, FII had done Short Covering of 1.4K Contracts in Index Futures and Clients had done Long Unwinding of 2.4K Contracts
• FII had added Call Long by 0.8K Contracts and added Put Short by 17.6K Contracts
• Clients had added Call Long by 18.8K Contracts and added Put Long by 13.6K Contracts
• Yesterday BANKNIFTY future was down 0.6% with decrease in O I by 10.4%.
• Put O I addition was seen at 24300 followed by 24200 which can act as short
term support.
• Call O I addition was seen at 25000 followed by 24900 which can act as short
term resistance.
• Yesterday NIFTY future was down 0.6% with decrease in O I by 2.2%.
• Put O I addition was seen at 10000 followed by 9800 and Call O I addition was seen at 10500 followed by 10400.
• Immediate Resistance & Major Resistance is around 10500 for the October Series.
• Immediate support & Major Support is around 10000 for the October Series.
Market Buzz
• India’s SBI Triples Aim for Purchase of NBFC Loan Portfolio, State Bank of India steps up target for purchase of good quality portfolio of assets from non-banking financial companies; lender believes there is good opportunity to expand loan portfolio at attractive rates, according to an emailed statement. Sees opportunity to buy additional portfolio in the range of 200 billion rupees to 300 billion rupees this year. NOTE: SBI initially planned for a growth of 150 billion rupees via portfolio purchases this year. Bank looking for opportunities both in priority and non-priority sectors: statement.
• Tata Motors Group September Global Wholesales including Jaguar Land Rover rose by 6 percent to 123,577 units on a year on year basis. Tata Motors’ commercial vehicles and Tata Daewoo global wholesales up 25 percent at 52,018 units. For all the passenger vehicles global wholesales declined by 4 percent to 71,559 units and lastly JLR global wholesales stood at 52,987 units.
• Bharat Forge initiates voluntary liquidation process of its joint venture with NTPC for business of manufacturing, buying and selling equipment relating to the power sector. The company says since its incorporation the venture has not commenced any business activity.
• KEC International bags order worth Rs 1,496 crore, Company has bagged an order worth Rs 1,496 crore. The company secured new turnkey order of Rs 1,496 crore in its transmission & distribution business in Bangladesh for design, supply and installation of 400 kV Meghnaghat - Madunaghat double circuit transmission line.
• Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd. said that it has raised retail lending rates by 20 basis points to accommodate for the recent spike in interest rates in the economy. Loans of up to Rs 35 lakh will be disbursed at an interest rate of 8.8 percent per anum, while loans bigger than that will attract interest rates of 8.95 percent. According to an official of the company who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the effective lending rates for builder loans have been increased by 100 basis points. The benchmark rate for such loans has been increased by 200 basis points to 14.9 percent, with effect from Oct. 1.
• BHEL gains 2% on orders win worth Rs 2,900 crore, The company has bagged four orders for emission control equipment from NTPC valued at
about Rs 2,900 crore. The company has bagged four orders for emission control equipment from NTPC valued at about Rs 2,900 crore. These orders involve supply and installation of flue gas desulphurization (FGD) systems for control of SOx emissions at NTPC's 3x660 MW North Karanpura, 2x500 MW Mauda Stage-I, 3x660 MW Barh Stage-I and 2x660 MW Barh Stage-II power projects.
• Glenmark Pharma executes pact to transfer the company’s API business to its wholly owned subsidiary Glenmark Life Sciences.
• Suzuki’s India Unit Starts Field Test on Electric Vehicles, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., the nation’s biggest carmaker, has started testing electric vehicles at its Gurugram facility adjoining India’s capital Delhi, The prototypes electric vehicles have been developed exclusively by Suzuki Motor on an existing model.
• Usha Martin clarifies that union quoted in the news for raising concern over irregular payment of salaries is not a recognized trade union of the company and that does not represent the voice of the employee of the company at the Ranchi plant.
• Aban Offshore to Buy U.K. Continental Shelf Production License, A unit of the company has entered into a conditional agreement to acquire
100% interest in a U.K. Continental Shelf Production License, comprising of two blocks in U.K. North Sea, for non-cash $75m. The unit has also entered into a pact to sell 50% interest in the license immediately after acquisition is completed, for $37.5m in cash to an unrelated party. Upon completion of the transactions, Aban unit and the party buying stake will be equal stakeholders in the license, while the latter will be the operator. Payment for the license purchase will be set-off against amounts due from certain customers to another Aban unit for drilling services provided.
• NMDC Targeting Iron Ore Output Capacity of 100M Tons/Yr by 2030, NMDC plans to raise annual capacity to 67m tons by 2022 in first phase and
increase it to 100m tons by 2030, N. Baijendra Kumar, chairman of the state-run iron ore producer, says in New Delhi. Miner produced record 35.6m tons of iron ore in 2017-18. Company successfully bid for a gold mine in India and will develop the mine in the next few years.
• NLC India board approves to buy back 14.19 lakh shares at Rs 88 per share, aggregating to Rs 1,249 crore. The shares proposed in the buyback represent 9.28 percent of the company’s equity paid-up share capital.
• National aluminum to consider buy-back of equity shares, National aluminum to consider buyback of shares OCT. 12.
• Results To Watch • Zee entertainment enterprises ltd. • Bandhan Bank • Indiabulls Ventures
Nifty 50 Daily Volatility Levels
ADANIPORTS 319.2 Long Built-up Up 380 260 329.7 323.9 314.7 312.5 310.2 301.0 295.2
ASIANPAINT 1200.35 Long Unwinding Down 1300 1200 1273.6 1257.0 1230.4 1223.8 1217.1 1190.6 1174.0
AXISBANK 554.95 Neutral Neutral 600 530 583.3 574.6 560.7 557.2 553.7 539.8 531.1
BAJAJ-AUTO 2554.5 Neutral Down 3000 2400 2690.3 2650.7 2587.3 2571.4 2555.6 2492.2 2452.6
BAJAJFINSV 5448.15 Neutral Neutral 6000 5000 5690.5 5601.9 5460.2 5424.7 5389.3 5247.6 5159.0
BAJFINANCE 2057.6 Neutral Up 2400 1800 2162.8 2115.3 2039.3 2020.3 2001.2 1925.2 1877.7
BHARTIARTL 289.65 Neutral Down 380 340 309.2 303.9 295.3 293.2 291.1 282.5 277.2
BPCL 257.05 Neutral Neutral 300 240 299.6 286.9 266.7 261.6 256.6 236.3 223.6
CIPLA 637.4 Neutral Neutral 660 620 656.2 650.1 640.3 637.8 635.4 625.5 619.4
COALINDIA 273.85 Long Built-up Up 280 260 283.5 279.4 272.9 271.3 269.7 263.2 259.1
DRREDDY 2453.75 Long Built-up Up 2500 2300 2524.8 2483.8 2418.2 2401.9 2385.5 2319.9 2278.9
EICHERMOT 21134.1 Neutral Down 26000 20000 23279.1 22738.4 21873.4 21657.2 21440.9 20575.9 20035.3
GAIL 335 Long Unwinding Down 400 340 364.3 356.3 343.5 340.3 337.0 324.2 316.2
GRASIM 904.3 Short Built-up Down 1000 960 956.1 942.4 920.5 915.1 909.6 887.7 874.0
HCLTECH 1071.1 Long Unwinding Neutral 1200 1000 1102.3 1092.9 1077.8 1074.1 1070.3 1055.2 1045.8
HDFC 1718 Short Covering Up 1800 1600 1781.7 1753.1 1707.4 1695.9 1684.5 1638.7 1610.1
HDFCBANK 1944.05 Neutral Neutral 2040 1900 2006.4 1987.5 1957.4 1949.9 1942.3 1912.2 1893.3
HEROMOTOCO 2883.9 Neutral Neutral 3100 2700 3032.1 2980.4 2897.6 2877.0 2856.3 2773.5 2721.8
HINDALCO 224.2 Neutral Neutral 240 220 240.8 235.0 225.9 223.6 221.3 212.2 206.5
HINDPETRO 171.2 Neutral Neutral 200 170 207.5 196.7 179.3 175.0 170.6 153.3 142.5
HINDUNILVR 1507.3 Short Built-up Down 1700 1400 1593.5 1572.4 1538.5 1530.1 1521.6 1487.8 1466.6
IBULHSGFIN 942 Neutral Neutral 1000 900 1030.1 999.3 950.0 937.7 925.3 876.0 845.2
ICICIBANK 306.45 Short Built-up Down 350 300 323.0 318.2 310.7 308.8 306.9 299.3 294.6
INDUSINDBK 1610.3 Neutral Neutral 1700 1600 1672.1 1651.2 1617.7 1609.4 1601.0 1567.5 1546.6
INFRATEL 267.4 Neutral Neutral 250 281.1 276.5 269.1 267.3 265.5 258.1 253.5
INFY 718.35 Neutral Neutral 800 670 743.5 735.1 721.5 718.1 714.7 701.1 692.7
IOC 122.5 Neutral Neutral 160 155 138.9 133.8 125.7 123.7 121.6 113.5 108.4
ITC 269.45 Short Built-up Down 300 260 282.6 279.1 273.4 272.0 270.6 264.9 261.4
JSWSTEEL 371.55 Neutral Neutral 400 360 392.2 386.1 376.3 373.9 371.4 361.6 355.5
KOTAKBANK 1108.1 Neutral Neutral 1160 1000 1158.2 1141.1 1113.8 1107.0 1100.1 1072.8 1055.7
LT 1212.5 Neutral Neutral 1400 1200 1249.7 1237.0 1216.7 1211.6 1206.5 1186.2 1173.5
M&M 766.7 Neutral Down 880 700 814.8 800.8 778.3 772.7 767.1 744.6 730.5
MARUTI 6720.05 Neutral Down 8000 6500 7150.1 7039.0 6861.2 6816.8 6772.4 6594.6 6483.5
NTPC 162.25 Short Built-up Down 180 155 167.7 166.2 163.8 163.2 162.6 160.2 158.7
ONGC 147.2 Long Unwinding Neutral 190 170 162.6 158.0 150.5 148.7 146.8 139.3 134.7
POWERGRID 187.15 Long Unwinding Neutral 200 180 194.4 192.0 188.2 187.3 186.4 182.6 180.2
RELIANCE 1092.8 Long Unwinding Down 1300 1000 1176.3 1151.9 1112.8 1103.1 1093.3 1054.2 1029.8
SBIN 263.2 Short Built-up Neutral 300 260 277.9 273.5 266.6 264.9 263.1 256.2 251.8
SUNPHARMA 610.35 Short Covering Neutral 660 580 634.4 625.6 611.5 607.9 604.4 590.3 581.4
TATAMOTORS 185.2 Long Unwinding Down 240 160 217.9 211.7 201.8 199.4 196.9 187.0 180.8
TATASTEEL 573.8 Short Covering Up 600 540 593.2 584.8 571.4 568.0 564.7 551.3 542.9
TCS 2098.65 Long Built-up Neutral 2300 2100 2188.6 2157.0 2106.4 2093.8 2081.1 2030.5 1998.9
TECHM 698.1 Short Built-up Neutral 720 700 729.7 719.2 702.4 698.2 694.0 677.2 666.8
TITAN 749.1 Short Built-up Down 900 700 829.8 813.7 788.1 781.7 775.2 749.6 733.5
ULTRACEMCO 3792.25 Long Built-up Neutral 4200 3600 3945.4 3892.4 3807.6 3786.5 3765.3 3680.5 3627.5
UPL 606.8 Short Built-up Down 680 840 654.1 640.7 619.4 614.1 608.7 587.4 574.1
VEDL 212.6 Short Covering Up 250 200 226.6 221.0 212.1 209.9 207.7 198.8 193.2
WIPRO 322.05 Long Built-up Up 360 300 329.5 326.4 321.5 320.3 319.0 314.1 311.0
YESBANK 225.25 Long Built-up Neutral 300 200 261.4 248.9 228.8 223.8 218.8 198.7 186.1
ZEEL 433.55 Long Built-up Up 450 400 442.8 436.8 427.2 424.8 422.4 412.8 406.8
Symbol Futures
Close O I Activity Trend
Highest Call OI
Highest Put OI
R3 R2 R1 Mid
Point S1 S2 S3
BANKNIFTY 24563.5 Neutral Neutral 25000 24000 25269.2 25058.9 24722.2 24638.1 24553.9 24217.3 24006.9
NIFTY 10314.4 Neutral Neutral 11000 10000 10611.4 10523.2 10382.0 10346.7 10311.4 10170.2 10082.0
DISCLOSURES
Mr. Prashant Barwaliya Head- Research [email protected]
Created by: IGSL - Research Contact : IGSL-Research , Inventure Growth & Securities Ltd,201,Viraj Tower, Near Landmark Building, Western Express Highway, Andheri (East),Mumbai -400 093 Tele: 91-22-71148500 , Fax: 91-22-40751511. E-mail: [email protected] , website : http://www.inventuregrowth.com
Research Team Tel: 022 – 71148579 E-mail: [email protected] Website: Inventuregrowth.com
Research Team Profile Email ID
Mr. Yash Doshi Fundamental Analyst [email protected]
Mr. Smeet Gala Fundamental Analyst [email protected]
Mr. Prasad Shetty Technical Analyst [email protected]
This Report is published by Inventure Growth & Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as “IGSL”) for private circulation. IGSL is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH000006129. IGSL is also a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited, BSE Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited (MSE) in cash, F&O & currency derivatives segments. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and is also registered with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor IGSL have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI for Retail & Institutional business or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market other than PRO business. IGSL, its associates or analyst or his relatives may or may not hold any financial interest in the subject company. IGSL or its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. IGSL or its Affiliates may or may not have been beneficial ownership of one percent or more of the securities mentioned in this report. However, one or more of IGSL or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those securities or options thereon, either on their own account. IGSL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. IGSL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and IGSL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. Analyst Certification: I/We, Prasad Shetty / Yash Doshi the research analyst Is the author of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflects my/our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
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