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market haven monthly newsletter - november 2010

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 MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY PAGE 1 T his month we changed the name of the publication from Sensible Investing to Market Hav en Month ly. So, please don’t be confused by the title change. We’ve kept the same look and substance. You will continue to see other changes over the near future as  we respond to reader requests and develop our marketing strategy. The month of October continued the strong run that  began in September. The S&P 500 returned +3.7% for the month, ending at a value of 1183. The elections are upon us again and the Fed is queuing up to announce its plans for future monetary policy. We doubt there are too many surprises at this point in time. The Fed will continue its easy monetary stance, but will wait to announce anything until after the elections.  Additionally, there is little doubt that the continued pumping of money into the economy  will push assets up for a time indiscriminately. But for how long, no one knows. Adding fuel to the run-up are analysts who predict S&P 500 earnings will continue to rise +17% year-over-  year by next September to $91. We believe that estimate is too high and that a more appropriate estimate is trend earnings,  which should be closer to $80. The price/earnings ratio is slightly elevated at 15.8x. As  we noted last month, from a  valuation perspective, the market does not look favorably priced. However, we all know that valuation is not the primary driver of return in the short-term, so patience may be in order here, especially for those who have already chosen to exit the market altogether. It is partially for this reason that, as a general rule of thumb, we encourage investors to almost always keep some minimal exposure to equities, even when they are clearly overvalued. When combined with a simple rebalancing program, such a strategy will more often than not prove beneficial. Market Haven Monthly 2010 NOVEMBER The price/earnings ratio is slightly elevated at 15.8x. As we noted last month, from a valuation perspective, the market does n ot look f a vora bly priced.

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