market features report · across india, a substantial divide between level of sanitation &...

The Sanitation Technology PlatformPlease Note: This report is a good faith effort by RTI International to accurately represent information available via secondary and primary sources at the time of the information capture. The report is confidential and proprietary and only for internal uses and not for publication or public disclosure.

MARKET FEATURES REPORTHigh-level scan of four countries

SEPTEMBER 2016

CONTENTS Context

India market features

Indonesia market features

Thailand market features

Bangladesh market features

3

This study was completed to focus on two main objectives.

CONTEXT

Develop a high-level understanding of the types and depth of publically-available data related to sanitation for with primary focus on India and secondary focus on Indonesia, Thailand, and Bangladesh.

Highlight key market features for each of the countries that may impact the market opportunity for the Reinvented Toilet.

1

2

Note: This report is based on publically-available data and intended to serve as a high-level market scan vs. be a comprehensive resource. In many cases, strong secondary data on the market features is limited.

4

Several main sources of secondary data were utilized to complete the assessment.

CONTEXT

Country Key Data Sources

India• Indian National Census (2011)• 69th National Sample Survey (2012)• KnightFrank Report (2016)

Indonesia • Census of Indonesia (2010)• Indonesia Demographic & Health Survey (2012)

Thailand

• Population and Housing Census (2010)• Population and Housing Census (2000)• Access to Electricity, The World Bank (2015)• Whitepaper: Thailand’s Green Building Goals (2011)

Bangladesh • Bangladesh Population Census (2011)

CONTENTS Context





6

Executive Summary

INDIA

India is one of the world’s largest nations, with a population over 1 billion and more than 240 million houses.

• Despite rapid urbanization, the majority of the Indian population lives in rural areas, 166 million homes in rural areas vs. 80 million in urban areas.

• National growth rate has been slowing, but remains at 1.2% per annum.

Across India, rural housing lags in access to sanitation and electricity, and is often of poorer construction quality.

• Only 31% of rural Indian houses have access to latrines, compared to 81% of urban houses. Of that 31%, only 17% have access to sewers or septic tanks.

• 55% of rural houses use primarily electric lighting, compared to 93% of urban houses.

Slum dwellings in urban areas across India have lower levels of latrine and sewer access.

• Only 66% of slum dwellings have latrines compared to 81% of urban houses. Of that 66%, 56% of slums (versus 71% for urban home) have access to sewer/septic systems.

• Relative parity exists in electricity access, 91% for slums vs 95% for urban homes.

Poverty and lack of access to sanitation is particularly concentrated in northern, rural India.

• Across numerous sanitation and electrification indicators, northern, rural Indian homes have lowest levels of access.

• However, Mumbai suffers among the lowest levels of latrine access.

7

India is the second most-populous country in the world, with population >1B and >240MM houses.

INDIA

Indian population by state (2011)Indian population is large and growing

2011 Indian census estimated population at 1.2B; currently estimated approaching 1.3B

• Growth rate has been declining, but currently estimated at 1.2% per annum

Census estimated 244 million houses in India• 166 million houses in rural areas• 78.4 million houses in urban areas

High populations concentrated in several poorer northern states, e.g. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar

8

Across India, a substantial divide between level of sanitation & electricity access in urban & rural areas.

INDIA

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

Rural Urban

Total households Households with latrines

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

Rural Urban


Households with access to latrines

~31% ~81%

Households using electric lighting

~55% ~93%

2011 Indian census data

9

Gap between urban and rural sanitation access is more pronounced in northern India.

INDIA

In-home latrines across India by state, rural and urban (2011)

Northern India housing lags on latrine access

Across numerous states, rural Indian homes suffer from shortfall of latrine access


7

Slum dwellings in urban areas across India suffer lower levels of latrine and sewer access.

INDIA

95%

81%

71%

91%

66%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Homes with electricity Homes with latrines Homes with latrine &sewer/septic access

Urban Slum

Electricity, latrine, and sewer/septic access across urban & slum homes

Near-parity in slum electricity access may enable deployment of more conventional solutions to address sanitation gap


11

Access to sewers and septic tanks is especially constrained in rural India.

INDIA

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

Rural Urban

Total householdsHouseholds with latrines emptying into septic tanks or sewers

Only 17% of rural households have latrines emptying into septic/sewer (2011)

~17% ~71%

Significant health consequences resulting from lack of sanitation access


UNICEF estimates that only 31% of Indians use improved sanitation facilities

• Over 50% of the population practices open defecation

Poor sanitation means diarrheal disease is endemic in Indian children• Diarrhea is the second leading cause of

death for children under 5 in India• 48% of Indian children experience

malnutrition, largely due to diarrhea• India shows greater incidence of child

malnourishment than DRC or Somalia

In 2006, total economic costs of poor sanitation were estimated at ~6% of GDP

Source: New York Times, “Poor Sanitation in India May Afflict Well-Fed Children With Malnutrition”; World Bank WSP, “The Economic Impacts of Inadequate Sanitation in India”; UNICEF India, “Water, Environment, Sanitation Fast Facts”

12

Adequate waste-water drainage is particularly lacking in northern, rural areas.

INDIA

Home waste-water drainage across India by state, rural and urban (2011)

Odisha has particularly poor drainage access

As in other categories, rural Indian homes lag severely in Drainage access


13

Mumbai lags other large Indian cities in household access to latrines.

INDIA

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

GreaterMumbai

Delhi Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Chennai Kolkata


~58% ~89% >90%

Gap in even rudimentary latrine access implies a >1MM device market in Mumbai alone


Total households and households with latrines across major Indian cities (2011)

14

Primary source of lighting for Indian households varies strongly by region; rural areas often use kerosene.

INDIA

Primary source of lighting across India by state, rural and urban (2011)

Northern India housing lags on electrification

Southern Indian housing largely electrified


15

While most Indian homes report consistent access to electricity for domestic use, rural northern India lags.

INDIA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Rural Urban

Homes with electricity, state-by-state medianHomes with electricity, national mean

% of Indian homes with electricity for domestic use, urban and rural (2012)

2012 NSS data

Northern Indian states with low rural electrification bring down national mean

Electrified rural homes per 1,000; NSS data (2012)

16

Stark differential construction quality between rural & urban India; rural homes often made of mud/grass.

INDIA

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

Rural Urban

Total houses Houses with mud floor Houses with mud or grass walls

Total homes by construction type across India, rural and urban (2011)


Successful RTs that are target at rural India will need to be robust vis a vis home construction quality

14

Average home size across India is ~40 square meters; variance between rural & urban India is minimal.

INDIA

24.99

40.03

69.58

29.66

39.2

68.77

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Chandigarh All India Manipur

Rural Urban

Average home size by Indian state, rural and urban (square meters, 2012)

Effectively the national minimum for both rural and urban (one outlier

removed)

Effectively the national maximum for both rural and

urban (two outliers removed)

RT unit size likely not a differential constraint between rural and urban contexts, but physical footprint must be a general concern given small size of homes.

2012 NSS data

15

Indian government initiatives are pushing to reform sanitation access nationally.

INDIA

Poor sanitation is a serious drain on Indian economy & well-being

Indian government has begun to campaign for improvement

UNICEF estimates that only 31% of Indians use improved sanitation facilities

• Over 50% of the population practices open defecation

Poor sanitation means diarrheal disease is endemic in Indian children• Diarrhea is the second leading cause of

death for children under 5 in India• 48% of Indian children experience

malnutrition, largely due to diarrhea• India shows greater incidence of child

malnourishment than DRC or Somalia

In 2006, total economic costs of poor sanitation were estimated at ~6% of GDP

“A clean India would be the best tribute India could pay to Mahatma Gandhi on his 150 birth

anniversary in 2019.” – PM Narendra Modi

“Swachh Bharat Abhiyan,” or “Clean India Mission” is flagship campaign

• Inaugurated by PM Narendra Modi in 2014, with rural & urban components

• Aims to accomplish vision of “Clean India” by 2019

• Specific targets include elimination of open defecation, installation of municipal waste management in 4000 cities

Source: New York Times, “Poor Sanitation in India May Afflict Well-Fed Children With Malnutrition”; World Bank WSP, “The Economic Impacts of Inadequate Sanitation in India”; UNICEF India, “Water, Environment, Sanitation Fast Facts”

15

Publically-available Knight Frank Report, “India Real Estate, Residential and Office” provides housing data.

INDIA

This report and others can be found here: http://www.knightfrank.co.in/research/results.aspx?typeid=research&isocodes=IN&view=grid

Includes:

• Residential market launches & sales over Q1-2 2016

• Office market completions, stock, vacancies

Data for top eight cities (as shown at left)

Projections and trends

CONTENTS Context





21

Executive Summary: Indonesia

INDONESIA

Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world, with ~250MM people.

• 2015 population projection for Indonesia is in excess of 255MM people, with strong growth.

• In 2012, the Indonesian government assessed that there were 61 million households, evenly split between rural and urban areas.

Across Indonesia, rural housing lags in access to sanitation and is often of poorer construction quality; however electrification is strong across the country.

• Only 65% of rural Indonesian houses have access to latrines, compared to 89% of urban houses.

• Substantial portions of rural Indonesian homes are of mud or grass floor or construction, with 30% made of non-durable materials.

• Electrification rates are strong: 92% in rural areas and 99% in urban ones.

Although sanitation situation is improving, work remains to be done: 20% of rural Indonesian households still use open waterways as toilets.

• Bottled water remains a preferred source of drinking water in urban areas, as 40% of households use it as their primary source of drinking water.

22

INDONESIA

Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world, with ~250MM people.

Indonesian population is large and growing Population is concentrated on Java

Island of Java, home to 145MM people

2015 population projection for Indonesia is in excess of 255MM people, with strong growth.

• 58% of Indonesian population lives on Java, making it the world’s most populous island.

In 2012, the Indonesian government assessed that there were 61 million households.

• ~31 million houses are in rural areas.

• ~30 million houses are in urban areas.

As high population growth continues, Indonesia is projected to become world’s 3rd-largest country by 2043.

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INDONESIA

Sanitation remains an issue with Indonesian households, particularly in rural areas.

86.3%

52.0%

66.3%

89.4%

65.4%

77.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Urban Rural Total

2007 2012

Percentage of Indonesian Households Using Improved Toilets*(by year & urban / rural)

Substantial year-over-year improvement in rural sanitation, but still gap remains, particularly compared to urban.

Effective rural AND urban solutions are imperative to address sanitation in Indonesia, but rural has largest gaps.

Given density of urban settings, 10% shortfall in sanitation translates to large numbers.

*Improved toilets defined as septic or sewered toilets; does not include pit latrines.

24

INDONESIA

Strong electricity access exists across urban and rural areas in Indonesia.

98.2%

86.1%91.1%

99.1%92.9% 96.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Urban Rural Total

2007 2012

Percentage of Indonesian Households with Electricity Access(by year & urban / rural)

Electrification unlikely to be a major obstacle to RT rollout in Indonesia, whether in rural or urban areas.

25

INDONESIA

Homes in urban Indonesia tend to be of solid construction; rural areas still lag.

88%

62%

73%

90%

69%

79%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Urban Rural Total

2007 2012

Percentage of Indonesian Households Constructed with Durable Materials* (by year & urban / rural)

Rural homes still lag in construction quality across Indonesia.

*Durable materials defined as stone, ceramic (incl. brick), or cement.

~30% of rural homes are still built of earthen / wooden materials entirely.

CONTENTS Context





27

Executive Summary: Thailand

THAILAND

Thailand is a populous nation of ~67 million individuals, with low growth and shrinking household size in wake of government contraception initiative.

• In 1960, growth rate was 3.1%; today rate is ~0.4%.

• Household size has also been reduced from average 5.7 to 3.2.

• Thailand had approximately 20 MM households at the time of the 2010 census, evenly divided between rural and urban areas.

High rates of flush latrine use and access, as this has been priority for government, but large segments of wastewater still go untreated; households tend to be of durable construction.

• 99% of Thai households have access to flush latrines, representing rapid growth since 2000.

• However, Bangkok only manages to treat 40% of its wastewater.

• Across Thailand, serious skepticism of drinking water quality and water treatment standards.

• As of 2010, ~75% of Thai homes were of durable construction.

Basic sanitation access may be poor outside of major nationalized areas.

• Mountain and marginal peoples in Thai territory generally have extremely poor access to sanitation, in need of solutions robust w/r/t grid access.

28

THAILAND

Thailand had a population of ~67 million in 2015, with low growth and shrinking households.Thailand’s family planning program has

re-shaped demography.

Thai population growth, household size have declined dramatically in recent decades.

• In 1960, growth rate was 3.1%; today rate is ~0.4%.

• Household size has also been reduced from average 5.7 to 3.2.

Thailand had approximately 20 MM households at the time of the 2010 census.

• ~10.5 million houses are in rural areas.

• ~9.5 million houses are in urban areas.

• Electrification is ~100%.

Thailand is urbanizing, principally in the vicinity of Bangkok.

• 45.7% of Thai population is in urban areas, with urban areas capturing all population growth between 2000 and 2010.

Thai population is clustered near Bangkok.

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THAILAND

Thai government data suggest remarkably rapid progress toward household access to flush latrines.

26%

5%12%

99% 99% 99%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Urban Rural Total

2000 2010

Percentage of Thai Households Using Flush Latrines(by year & urban / rural, according to Thai housing & population censuses)

30

THAILAND

On-the-ground reporting from UN officials and others suggest while latrine access is good, treatment lacking.

Various sources corroborate Thai government claims of high access.

Thai Household Census99% flush latrine access in 2010

World Bank96% improved sanitation coverage in 2010

UNICEF93% improved sanitation access in 2006

While latrine access is high, waste treatment has gaps.

On 2013 visit, Special Rapporteur suggested substantial gaps in water treatment

• Only 21% of community wastewater is treated regularly

• City of Bangkok only treats 40% of wastewater

• Safe water access appeared to be at 25% in rural areas and 40% in urban areas

Rapporteur noted strong, striking disparities between the modernized areas and others

• Informal settlements (rural and urban) as well as tribal areas suffer from lack of adequate sanitation & clean water as downstream effects of poor treatment

While latrine coverage is generally high, need for actual treatment solutions is pressing across Thailand.

31

THAILAND

Lack of adequate water treatment visible in Thai households’ mistrust of tap water.

Percentage of Thai households with tap water access, urban & rural

Percentage of Thai households using tap for drinking water, urban & rural

77%

47%57%

90%

75%82%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Urban Rural Total

2000 2010

36%

17%23%

36%

22%28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Urban Rural Total

2000 2010Sharp improvements in overall tap water access

32

THAILAND

Progress across Thailand towards durable home construction shows rural areas lag national average.

64%

39%47%

84%

69%76%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Urban Rural Total

2000 2010

*Durable materials defined as stone, ceramic (incl. brick), or cement; wood may be used but may not be not the sole construction material

Percentage of Thai Households Constructed with Durable Materials*(by year & urban / rural)

33

THAILAND

Rapid growth in both detached homes and condominiums/apartments in urban areas.

Detached homes in Thailand, 2000 & 2010, millions

Percentage of Thai households usingtap for drinking water, urban & rural

2.7

9.8

12.5

5.2

9.6

14.8

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Urban Rural Total

2000 2010Rapid growth, with urban supply almost doubling in 10 years.

0.40.0

0.5

1.7

0.2

1.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Urban Rural Total

2000 2010

Supply more than tripled within ten years.

Potential market for RT in Thailand worth looking into due to new home growth.

AGENDA Context





35

Executive Summary: Bangladesh

BANGLADESH

Bangladesh is a populous and extremely population-dense country, with more than ~160MM people in a comparatively small land area.

• Overall fertility has declined, but Bangladesh continues to grow at ~1.6% annually.

• Urban population is about 35% of overall population (2015), with a rate of change of about 3.5% per annum; 29MM households split 23MM in rural areas and 6MM in urban areas.

Across Bangladesh, lack of sanitation, with only ~28% of household accessing reliably sanitary toilets; electrification rates are low in rural areas

as well, and home durability is lacking.• No area of Bangladesh has >50% access to

reliably sanitary toilets.• <50% of rural households use electric lighting,

although electrification rates tend to be higher in urban areas nationally.

• <30% of Bangladeshi homes nationally are built with durable materials.

Vast majority of drinking water comes from tube wells, which while generally sanitary have contributed to epidemic of arsenic overexposure.

• ~90% of national drinking water is drawn from tube wells, even as ~10% of the population is thus exposed to unsafe levels of arsenic.

36

BANGLADESH

Bangladesh has a population of ~166MM and continues to experience substantial growth.

Bangladesh continues to experiencerelatively rapid population growth.

Overall fertility has declined, but Bangladesh continues to grow at ~1.6% annually.

• Between 1965-70 and 2005-2010, fertility declined from ~7 to 2.4.

• Population growth is expected to remain high.

Bangladesh remains majority rural even as urbanization continues.

• Urban population is about 35% of overall population (2015), with a rate of change of about 3.5% per annum.

With large households, total number of homes in Bangladesh is ~29MM (2011).

• ~23MM are in rural areas.

• ~6MM are in urban areas.

Bangladesh is extremely populationdense, especially near Dhaka.

37

BANGLADESH

Access to proper toilets is low across Bangladesh, with a 28% overall rate of access to sanitary toilets.

48%

23%28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Urban Rural Total

Percentage of Bangladesh Households Using Sanitary Latrines with Water Seal (by urban / rural)

Need for proper toilets is sizable across Bangladesh.

38

BANGLADESH

Proper toilet access is extremely low across Bangladesh, with outlying areas lowest.

No region has more than 50% of overall toilets sanitary and water-sealed; Chittagong closest.

Even dense, urban areas (e.g. Dhaka) have astonishingly high rates of unsanitary or non-sealed toilets.

Although urban areas tend to have higher rates of access, substantial need exists in all areas of Bangladesh.

39

BANGLADESH

Majority of Bangladeshi households draw water from tube wells.

33%

2%8%

66%

95%89%

0.9% 3.3% 2.8%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Urban Rural Total

Tap

Tube well

Well/pond/other

Percentage of Bangladesh Households Using Three Major Water Sources (by urban / rural)

While tube wells generally insulate water supplies from fecal contamination, better drinking-water solutions are needed.

• Tube wells generally provide substantial insulation from microbial contamination

• However, high groundwater arsenic levels across Bangladesh continue to affect ~10% of the population

NB that 28% of urban households use bottled, boiled, or filtered drinking water.

40

BANGLADESH

Across Bangladesh, electrification remains limited, with rural areas most underserved.

89%

49%57%

11%

47%40%

0.6%4.7% 3.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Urban Rural Total

Grid electricity Kerosene Other sources

Percentage of Bangladeshi Households by Primary Source of In-home Lighting (by urban and rural)

RTs deployed in Bangladesh will need to factor in spotty electricity access, particularly in rural areas.

41

BANGLADESH

Electrification is high in urban areas across Bangladesh, but often quite low in rural areas.

Relatively high rates of urban electrification

Deeply underserved rural areas contributed to low overall electrification, esp. given that rural households comprise a strong majority.

42

BANGLADESH

Home construction quality in Bangladesh remains low, particularly in rural areas.

13%

35%31%

25%

44% 41%

61%

18%26%

1.2% 3.0% 2.7%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Urban Rural Total

Straw or mud

Tin sheet

Brick or cement

Other

Percentage of Bangladeshi Homes by Primary Wall Construction Material (by urban and rural)

Just 26% of homes nationally are built of durable materials.

market features report · across india, a substantial divide between level of sanitation &...

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