market development and r&d · 2012. 8. 24. · page 4 topsil Årsrapport 2010 solid development...
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MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND R&D
LD Markets 15 April 2011
3 2010 in brief
5 Market development
15 8” R&D and new plant
21 Focus towards 2012
24 Q&A
AGENDA
2010 IN BRIEF
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
Solid development in underlying markets continued in 2010 – aggregated market growth on Topsil’s markets of around +8% to approx. USD 1.4bn*
Main growth driver remains increased investments in smart power and energy efficient solution, e.g. in transportation, infrastructure and industry
Growth on high and very high voltage levels on par with previous year
20% increase in wafer volume
Sharp increase in demand for CZ as consumer electronics market rebounded
Group revenue of DKK 457m (+8%) and EBITDA of DKK 102m (+2%) – in line with expectations for 2010
Surge in cash flow from free operations (CFFO )to DKK 92.7m (DKK 37.2m) driven by reduced NWC
Decrease in trade receivables
Tax for 2010 pre-paid
STRONG DEMAND IN UNDERLYING MARKETS RESULT ON PAR WITH EXSPECTATIONS
* Source: Yole Developpement, March 2011
MARKETDEVELOPMENT
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
UPDATE FROM YOLESHORT TERM IMPACTED BY FIN. CRISES
The High Power market is a “long cycle” business and has performed well during the financial crises.
Short term growth impacted by slow down of projects:
Until beginning of 2011, bank financing has been restricted. Industry investments and renewable projects have been put on hold.
Infrastructure and government programmes have been stopped awaiting financial stability.
Stimulus packages aim at supporting infrastructure projects, but these projects require long planning and approval processes .
Order visibility has become shorter, but underlying market is regaining momentum.
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
UPDATE FROM YOLELONG TERM GROWTH SCENARIOS INTACT
Longer term growth scenario in the power market is maintainedwith double digit growth numbers
Source Yole Developpement, March 2011
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
UPDATE FROM YOLEGROWTH SCENARIOS CONFIRMED
Source Yole Developpement, March 2011
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
MARKET UPDATE AND GROWTH SCENARIOS 2011 - 2012
Main wafer type split by application
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
LONG TERM MARKET DRIVERSGLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND SOURCES
Energy consumption expected to increase more than 3 times over the next decade
Existing energy sources will run out and new will be developed
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
LONG TERM MARKET DRIVERSGLOBAL ENERGY – SOLAR BEYOND SUBSIDIES
Grid parity: Consumer price = PV power cost
• Source: www.eupvplatform.org• Source: www.eupvplatform.org
Solar market has taken off significantly and will continue to develop
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
LONG TERM MARKET DRIVERSGLOBAL ENERGY – THE GRID
Transformation of the Grid is essentiel to handle new sources of energy
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
Industry: Continued focus on energy-efficient solutions in industry, e.g. industrial motors (”Smart power”)
Transportation: Continued movement towards more efficient and more climate-friendly transport of people and goods
Automotive:
Hybrid and Electrical vehicles (# units): 2010: 1m, 2014: 3m, 2018: 12m
Renewable energy sources
Solar generation (# units): 2010: 3m, 2014: 6m, 2018: 15m
Wind generation (# units): 2010: 80K, 2014:130K, 2018:230K
New investments in infrastructure and integration of new energy sources in existing grids (smart Grids etc.)
Main risks: Financing, manufacturing and supply chain bottle necks, availability of rare metals change of political focus
SUMMARYLONG TERM MARKET DRIVERS
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
Contract customers developing in line with expectations
Costumers are scaling up production capacities in some production lines, short term, implying lower overall production in 2011
Introduction of new 6” PFZ for medium power market will have positive effect from 2011 with sales from new customers
Development of 8” product represents a significant growth opportunity. Global shortage of supply to continue.
GROWTH TOWARDS 2012CUSTOMERS
R&D AND NEW PLANT
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
Development in wafer sizes due to production line constraints (i.e 6” line, 8” line)
CZ: 3” -> 4” -> 5” -> 6” -> 8” -> 12” -> 16” (400mm) -> 18” (450mm)
FZ: 3 ” -> 4” -> 5” -> 6” -> 8”
12” FZ theoretically possible, but never tried.
Lifecycle of given diameter typically 15-20 years (FZ) and 10 years (CZ)
Marked development drivers: Technical performance, cost and quality (yield)
R&D CENTRAL IN SILICIUM WAFER MARKETP
rod
uct
Design of Experiment
Product capability Qualification follow up
Product release
Year 0
Project start Crystal Growth
Experimental and statistical DOEIP protection
Irradiation and anneal Engineering samples
Statistical product capability
Detailed customer and
production feedback
Customer feedback
Lock down of all
parameters
Define objectives
and resources
Experienced trial & error
simulations
First Crystal Process locked Samples QualifiedLaunch
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Time
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
8” FLOAT ZONE PRODUCT
Large and heavy weight poly rods on stock for 8” production
Ingot
Tail
Cone
Flat
8” allows more components per wafer, thus reducing cost
8” NTD is relevant to the very high voltage applications and is currently in demand
8’’ NTD is still on R&D level
8’’ PFZ has been launched by two of the biggest corporations in industry
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
TOPSIL 8”- R&D
Design of Experiment
Product capability
Qualification follow up
Product release
Crystal Growth
PolyDefine specs Test poly Develop specs Qualify
Ingot productionCheck compliance Install machinery Train operators Ramp
Market & customers Strategy Target customers Sampling Ramp
IrradiationContact to reactors Resistivity control Annealing
Wafering8” compliance Strategic options Qualify Ramp
FinancialsCAPEX Cost model Cost price rev. Sales price rev. Ramp P&L
8’’
New manufacturing facility – Capacity expansionFinancing Project drawings Buy land Start building Finalize building Transition / Customer Qualification
First Crystal Process locked Samples QualifiedLaunch
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
TOPSIL – PRODUCTION (ALL PRODUCTS)
Ingot post processing+ QC
Irradiation
Ingot Etch + Anneal
Wafering
WaferingQC + Shipping
PFZ
WaferingQC + Shipping
Sourced CZ wafers
CZ growthIngot post processing+ QC
EPI
Speciality
Speciality
WARSAW
FREDERIKSSUND
EXTERNAL
WARSAW
EXTERNAL
FZ
CZ+CZ-EPI
CZ preparation
FZ growthPoly preparation+ Etch
Ingot post processing+ QC
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
NEW PLANT, CONSTRUCTION 2011-2012
To increase capacity in line with expansion business case
To make a modern facility in a modular and scalable design
To optimise flow and cleanliness in order to improve cost and quality
To increase capability, including 8’’, however is not a prerequisite for 8’’ production
Step by step transfer of machinery and people to enable smooth production and supply
FOCUSTOWARDS2012
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
MAIN FOCUS : GROWTHSTRATEGY SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY
Increasing market share (revenue and earnings) in power market
Maintain high market share and grow with existing customers in the NTD market (high voltage)
Possibilities in the medium voltage power market with PFZ/EPI are large due to expected market growth and Topsils current limited size in this market
Topsil MUST expand as customers are demanding
Increased capacity
More efficient production at state-of-the-art cost positions (cost down)
Access to new products - 8”
Ability to choose the best substrate for a component (NTD, PFZ, EPI)
Movements from NTD to PFZ for some components
Movements from EPI to PFZ for some components
Movements from CZ to EPI for some components
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TOPSIL ÅRSRAPPORT 2010
RISK MANAGEMENT
Time to operation /qualification
Cost improvements to be reached for PFZ & NTD
Challenge Response
New Production facility
Primary focus on growth in volume; less on closing date for old plant
Detailed plan for all available internal / external resources (production equipment)
Cost improvements reached through yield improvements for Topsil and Cemat
Cost focus
Cost improvement program scaling to reach target
Cemat to be run as a production site
Time to market 8” NTD and PFZ + cost
Research & Development
8” Integrated Product Development is scaled to reach target (ingot, wafering etc.)