Maritime Drug Interdiction Through UAV Surveillance

Presented byLT Monica SchneiderLT Sylvester CamposLT Mike Dickenson

Background

• US Counter Drug Programs • Goal: Reduce the flow of Latin American

sourced Illicit drugs into the U.S.• Interdiction methods

•Stricter Cross Border Control•Supply reduction - Crop Eradication

• Primary source of Cocaine• Bolivia, Columbia, Peru account for all cocaine

harvested in the world

2012 CBP Cocaine Seizure Statistics

• Coastal Border Sectors• 24 Seizures• 5,953 Pounds

• Southwest Border Sectors• 457 Seizures• 5,992 Pounds

Drug Traffickers Transport Methods

Self-Propelled Semisubmersibles (SPSSs) Go-Fast Boats

Fishing Vessels Container Ships

The Latest in the Drug War “Operation Martillo”

• Operation Martillo is a multinational interagency and joint military operation that combats aerial and maritime drug trafficking off Central America’s coasts. U.S. military participation is led by Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF), a component of U.S. Southern Command.

• Partnership of 14 various countries

Successes of Operation Martillo

• January 24, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted 1,400 pounds of cocaine ($17 million) from a smuggler go-fast boat

• April 26, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted 2,200 pounds of cocaine ($27 million) from a fishing vessel

• June 1, 2013 - $527 million worth in Cocaine from 2 Speed Boats

Assets for Maritime Interdiction

• Support from 4th Fleet• 4 Frigates Patrol in 2 zones (Pacific/Atlantic) coasts

of South America• Coast Guard A/C and Cutters• 600 Person Multiagency Task Force• Partner nations contribute Patrol Boats and P-

3’s (Canada)• 4 UAV’s

MQ-9 Predator General Characteristics Primary Function: Airborne surveillance and target acquisition Fuel Capacity: 100 gallons Payload: 450 poundsSpeed: Cruise speed around 84 mph (70 knots), up to 135 mph Ceiling: up to 50,000 feetEndurance: Up to 30 hoursCost: $16.9 MillionCrew (remote): Two (pilot and sensor operatorTracking: FMV monitored by controlling station or uplinked with an asset.Capable in low visibility (cloud cover) and inclement weather

Intent• UAV’s will be able to spot drug traffickers and

then report back to a command center, which will alert the Coast Guard, Navy or authorities from Caribbean or Central American nations to take action.

UAV Search Graph

• Original Problem• Cocaine & Marijuana• All possible routes• Max Flow

• Project Focus• Cocaine• Maritime Routes• Max Flow with shortestpath properties

Network Model• Max Flow Network Model / Modified Min Cost

Flow to force shortest path properties• Nodes

• Demand Nodes - Corpus Christi, Miami, New Orleans

• Supply Nodes – Equally Distributed Supply Nodes along Latin American Coast (53 Total)

• Edges – All neighboring water nodes are connected

Network Edges

• Each Node over waterIs connected by an edge

• Flow moving from Supply nodes to Demand nodes

Supply & Demand Nodes• Supply Nodes

• Equally Distributed• 53 Supply Nodes• 625lbs each

• Demand Nodes• Miami - 9,922• New Orleans 9,921• Corpus Christi 13,282

• Transit Nodes• 329

Equally Distributed Supply

• Distance vs Profit • Annual estimated

flow

Assumptions

• Cocaine travels from supply to demand nodes shortest feasible path• Presently 15% rate of seizure of all drugs in the demand regions• UAVs are available to be on station 24/7• UAVs identify targets and tracks until forces arrive for apprehension

(never leave station after they are assigned best grid location)• 100 percent detection rate of drug running vessels transiting through

UAVs’ station.• Can not interdict within 60 km off US coast• Each node is 1° degree of latitude and longitude

Analysis

• 33,126 lbs transportedfrom all supply nodes Combined

• Node distinction

The “Interesting Questions”

• How much drug flow can be interdicted?

• How many UAVs do we need to stop as much

drug flow as possible?

• Marginal cost of adding UAV interdictions?

• At what levels can the program be fiscally

justified?

Interdictions

• UAVs can be assign 1 to multiple nodes to survey

• Probability of detection is initially 1 when assigned a single node and is reduced to 1 divided by number of nodes assigned

• UAVs never participate in apprehension• Apprehension away from UAV station • No Interdictions with 60 miles of US Coastline• UAV yearly mission cost $18.4 Million per UAV

1 UAV Interdiction

Total/Change• 11,328 lbs seized

• $133 Million• 34.2% reduction

• Seizure Cost• $1,641/lbs• $0.54 Million/%

2 UAV Interdictions

Additional 5,625 lbs•$66.5 Million•17.0% reduction

Total 16,953 lbs seized• $200 Million• 51.2% reduction

Seizure Cost• $2,171/lbs• $0.72 Million/%

3 UAV Interdictions

Additional 5,000 lbs•$59.1 Million•15.1% reduction

Total 21,953 lbs seized• $259 Million• 66.3% reduction

Seizure Cost• $2,514/lbs• $0.83 Million/%

4 UAV Interdictions

Additional 2,500 lbs•$29.5 Million•7.5% reduction

Total 24,453 lbs seized• $289 Million• 73.8% reduction

Seizure Cost• $3,010/lbs• $1.0 Million/%

5 UAV Interdictions

Additional 1,250 lbs•$14.8 Million•3.8% reduction

Total 26,003 lbs seized• $307 Million• 78.4% reduction

Seizure Cost• $3,538/lbs• $1.2 Million/%

Patterned Interdictions

Additional 2,656 lbs•$31.4 Million•$6,927 / lb

Additional 3,144 lbs•$37.2 Million•$5,852 / lb

Number of Interdictions

$/lb

Number of Interdictions

Further Research• Increase complexity by removing as many

assumption as possible• Specific UAV parameters• Joint coordination timelines/requirements/assests

• Refueling and replacement plans for UAV for management of assets (time to station)

• Improve intelligence on drug smuggling process

References• “Just the Facts” A Civilians Guide to U.S. Defense and Security Assistance

• http://justf.org/blog/2013/03/12/operation-martillo-southcoms-counternarcotics-operation-central-americas-coasts

• Statfor Global Intelligence• http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexicos-cartels-and-economics-cocaine?older=1353501041

• 162nd Fighter Wing• http://www.162fw.ang.af.mil/resources/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=11932

• World Drug Report

Questions?