marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical …blue science for blue growth –connecting ideas...
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Blue Science for Blue Growth – Connecting ideas and people 8 February 2017, Euromarine Event at EU Parliament, Bruxelles
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools
for supporting marine policy
Simone Libralato([email protected])
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale
Trophodynamic models to integrate processes and pressures
Blue Science for Blue Growth
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.
Integrating biological processes and
species interaction with different impacts
(including the multitarget and multigear
fisheries) helps understanding cumulative
impacts, permits to highligh trade-offs:
tools for decision support.
Maintaining and monitor the resilience of marine ecosystems
Multiple societal needs
Multiple co-occurring stressors
End-to-End (physic+biogeochemical+trophodynamic) modelling
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth
Objective:
Understand and predict cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic pressures (e.g., climatechange, fishing, pollution) on marine ecosystemsand the sustainability of services they provide.
• integrated assessment of marine ecosystems
• computation of synthetic indices• quantify attributes relevant to MSFD
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth
fishing scenarios
Simulating changes for hindcast (2000-2010) and a set of future scenarios(2010-2020)
On climateland use/fertilizersfisheries
Evaluating hindcast and future scenarios with a set of indicators possibly useful asattributes in the frameworkof the Marine Framework Strategy Directive
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth
Significant difference in indicatorsbetween PAST and FUTURE, in general there are little differencesbetween future climatic scenariosfor VIGOR, ORGANIZATION and RESILIENCE indicators
Example from Gulf of Lions
In the short term (up to 2020) fisheries scenariosshowed larger impactsthan nutrient-relatedpolicies that where verycontext dependent
Fisheries Mangement strategies evaluation with trophodynamic models
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth
EU Regulation 1380/2013
Common Fishery Policy regulation created for reducing the
bycatch and the discards of european fisheries
Evaluating ecological, economicconsequences and possiblestrategies
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth
Socio-economic implications
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth
Overall Landing obligation will
(1) Reduce biomasses at sea (approx -0.2%)
(2) increase landed material (approx +13%) [more work for fishermen]
(3) Reduce profits & commercial landings (-0.5%)
(4) Optimistic case of discards landed and sold for fishmeal: no increase in profit (change 0%)
Management strategies evaluation
Blue Science for Blue Growth
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth
A) introduction of quotas for small pelagic fish;B) halving the fishing effort of otter trawl fisheries; C) improving selectivity of OTB and TBB fisheries; D) application of both quotas for small pelagic fish and improving
selectivity for OTB and TBB fisheries.
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth
Trophodynamic models: toward operationality
End-to-End modelling is the result of a long term development process that benefited alsoof activities and conferences
There are several ways to build End-to-End models (one/two ways, several links still poorlyrepresented) Networking was important for sharing and Discussing ideas
These kind of models are data demanding(ecosystem data) and it is important a large involvement: these events helped for sharingdata
Dissemination of results and insights to fosterfurther applications
Next steps
Integrating processes
Basic research
Need for long term data
Transdisciplinary
Transboundary
Include stakeholders
Disseminate
Capacity building
Create tools for involving stakeholders
Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy
Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth
www.euromarinenetwork.eu
Thanks
Ecological Modelling Group (ECHO) at