Marine and Coast in a Changing Climate

Elvira S PoloczanskaAlistair J HobdayAnthony J Richardson Aug 2008

Climate Adaptation

Marine Ecosystems under Threat

Outline

1. Value of marine and coast

2. Climate change and marine ecosystems

3. Vulnerability analysis

4. Adaptation – focus on aquaculture

Marine Ecosystems under Threat

Annual Value of Marine and Coastal Systems to Australia

• Recreational (global) value of GBR ~ A$846 million to A$1.9 billion (Carr and Mendelson 2003 Ambio)

• Economic values (Blackwell 2005):• Open ocean A$ 464.7 billion

• Seagrass/algal beds A$ 175.1 million

• Coral reefs A$ 53.5 billion

• Shelf system A$ 579.9 billion

• Tidal marsh/mangroves A$ 39.1 billion

• Gross domestic product A$ 52 billion • Fisheries and aquaculture A$ 2.12 billion (ABARE 2007)

• Ecosystem services product of Australian coastal ecosystems (Martinez et al 2007 Ecol. Econ.):

• Terrestrial A$ 10.8 billion

• Marine A$ 26.7 billion

Bringing Climate Change to the Fore

2006• Stern Report• Inconvenient Truth• Drought (Hurricane Katrina)

2007• IPCC 4th assessment report• Nobel Peace Prize

Rainfall Projections (A1F1)

2030

2070

Summer Winter

Temperature Projections (A1F1)

2030

2070

Summer Winter

Past and future: temperature

IPCC 2007

150

200

250

300

350

-10 -5 0 5

Deuterium-based Temperature Anomalies, °C

Deglaciations

Glaciations

Atm

osph

eric

pC

O2

, at

m.

IGBP 2000

400

Year 2007 385 ppm

CO2 & Temperature (420,000 Years)

Vostok Ice Core Data

Courtesy David Ugalde, DCC

Recent Surface Temperature Observations

IPCC 2007

Trend in Sea Surface Temperature: 1944-2005

• It’s not getting hotter everywhere….

Ridgway 2007

Warming Hotspot

Fastest warming in SH?

Climate change means non-stationarity

• We will be in “new water” compared with historical patterns

Hill et al (2008)

• Summer SST (Jan-Mar)• 350 km movement

Salinity

Tem

pera

ture

°C

Get prepared for a changed future…

The future is uncertain

SST 2070s 9 different models

Climate Change Impacts on the Ocean

Poloczanska et al 2007

Impact on marine systems

• The biological attributes of exploited species and ecosystems that will likely be affected by climate change fall into four categories

(i) phenology and physiology,

(ii) range and distribution,

(iii) composition and interactions within communities,

(iv) structure and dynamics of communities.

764

90%94%

28586

Terrestrial

1

99%100%

85

Marine and Freshwater

IPCC 4th Assessment, 2007

Figure SM-1.4. Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature used in chapter synthesis assessment in Section 1.4.At the global scale TER = Terrestrial; MFW = Marine and Freshwater, and GLO = Global.

Why? Reduced Observing Capacity

• Marine systems inaccessible

• Satellites observe surface

• Few amateur naturalists

• Springwatch Survey (UK) in 2007: 24,453 obs

• Garden bird counts (UK) in 2007: >400,000 people

• Birds In Backyards survey (Australia) in 2006/07: 987 surveys

Snowdrop first flowering observations 2008: Springwatch

Great Barrier Reef

Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science

Marine Ecosystems under Threat

Why?

• Distribution of global science funding (<11% marine)

• Disentangling multiple stressors from poorly sampled systems

• The way marine ecologists report findings

• Limitations in the IPCC process

• 4 out of 43 WG II authors “marine”

• Guidelines for inclusion prejudice marine time series…

Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science

Marine Ecosystems under Threat

Climate Change and Marine Ecosystems: Overlooked

• IPCC criteria: 20 years data minimum, end 1990 or later

Funding crisis 1980s: 40% of European marine time series terminated

Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science

Duarte et al. (1992) Nature

Marine Ecosystems under Threat

Marine Biota: Canaries of Climate Change

• Distribution• Land: 6.1 km per decade poleward• Marine: 100s of kms per decade for phytoplankton,

zooplankton, fish and intertidal fauna• Connectivity important

• Phenology• Land: 2.3 days earlier per decade (172 taxa)• Marine: ~8 days earlier per decade in plankton,

marine turtles, and seabirds• Mismatch and energy flow

Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science; Richardson (2008) ICES J Mar Sci

In Hot Water: Marine Systems

Ecosystem state

High NLow N

• Temperature: proxy & driver for ecosystem state

• Land: no direct link between T, nutrients & state

warm, stratified, stableflagellates and gelatinous zooplankton

recycled nitrogenlong, inefficient food webfew higher trophic levels

cold, well mixed, turbulentdiatoms and large copepods

new production high short, efficient food web

support higher trophic levels

Richardson (in press) ICES J Mar Sci

Human Impacts on the World’s Oceans

Halpern et al. 2008 Science

Human Impacts on the World’s Oceans

globally <200m

Halpern et al. (2008) Science

Case Study 1: Vulnerability Index

Exposure (E)

Adaptive capacity (AC)

Sensitivity (S)

Potential impact

Vulnerability

Vulnerability: Potential to be damaged, altered or to resist change

‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to copewith, adverse effects of climate change’ (IPCC 2001)

(Allen Report 2005)

MEoW Regionalisation (WWF)

110 120 130 140 150 160-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

Longitude

Lat

itu

de

Locations

20202

20203

20204

20205

20206

2020720208

20209

20210

20211

2014020141

20142

20143

20144

2014520150

Estimating Vulnerability – Adaptive Capacity Dimension

Number Name Description

A1Charter Boat Operations

Charter boat operators, businesses per suburb

A2 Ship visitsTotal port visits all vessels 2000-2001

A3 Ship movementsShip location density (low to high)

A4 Siesmic surveys Location of siesmic surveys

A5Oil & gas installations

Location of oil and gas infrastructure and wells

A6 Dumps

Location of ammunition disposal, boat, chemical and miscellaneous dumps

A7Conservation status

Area of land and sea protected under WHA, RAMSAR, Parks etc

A8 Heavy metals Heavy metal pollution total kg

A9Organic compounds

Organic compounds pollution total kg

A10 Particles Particle pollution total kg

A11 Population Number of people

A12 Trawl fisheriesMean annual catch (2000-02) tonnes

A13 Net fisheriesMean annual catch (2000-02) tonnes

Estimating Vulnerability – Exposure (Climate Change) Dimension

Variable name GCM variable

Units GCM Description

C1 Sea surface temperature tos K CSIRO Mk 3.5 Surface temperature marine

C2 Air temperature tas K CSIRO Mk 3.5 Near-surface (usually 2m) air-temperature

C3 Surface downward shortwave flux in air

rsds W m-2 CSIRO Mk 3.5 Shortwave radiation

C4 Precipitation flux pr kg m-2 s-1 CSIRO Mk 3.5 Includes liquid (e.g. rainfall) and solid (e.g. snowfall) phases

C5 Salinity so 1e-3 i.e. ppt Hadcm3 3d variable, depth set 1 selected (surface)

C6 Sea level zosga m Hadcm3 Total change in global mean sea level relative to some fixed distance from the centre of the earth

C7 Eastward wind uas m s‑1 CSIRO Mk 3.5 Near-surface (usually 10m) eastward component of wind

C7 Northward wind vas m s‑1 CSIRO Mk 3.5 Near-surface (usually 10m) northward component of wind

C8 Eastward water velocity vo m s‑1 Hadcm3 3d variable, depth set 1 selected (surface)

C8 Northward water velocity uo m s‑1 Hadcm3 3d variable, depth set 1 selected (surface)

Climate Change Dimension

2030

2060

A1B A2

Estimating Vulnerability – Sensitivity Dimension

Attributes Seagrass Mangrove Coral

S1Thermal

affiliationThermal affiliation from seagrass atlas

Thermal affiliation from mangrove atlas

Thermal affiliation from coral atlas

S2 Latitudinal rangeLatitudinal ranges from seagrass atlas

Latitudinal ranges from mangrove atlas

Latitudinal ranges from coral atlas

S3

% latitudinal range in Australia

Latitudinal ranges from seagrass atlas

Latitudinal ranges from mangrove atlas

Latitudinal ranges from coral atlas

S4 Growth typeGrowth types from literature

Growth types from literature

Growth types from literature

S5 MorphologyMorphology from literature Morphology from literature

Morphology from literature

S6Reproductive

StrategyReproductive strategies from literature

Reproductive strategies from literature

Reproductive strategies from literature

S7Habitat range

(Australia)Primary habitats occupied from literature

Primary habitats occupied from literature

Primary habitats occupied from literature

S8 Patchiness NHMP NHMP NHMP

S9 Diversity Seagrass atlas Mangrove atlas Coral atlas

Vulnerability

0

1

2

3

Climate Change

Adaptive CapacitySensivity

2035

2065

Western Bassian

South Australian Gulfs

Great Australian Bight

0

1

2

3

Climate Change

Adaptive CapacitySensivity

20206

20207

20208

Marine Ecosystems under Threat

Responding to climate change

Two points of action: mitigation (addressing the cause) and adaptation (planned response to the changes)

• Mitigation of climate change refers to those response strategies that reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks

• Adaptation involves adjusting practices, processes and capital in response to the actuality or threat of climate change as well as changes in the decision environment such as social and institutional structures.

Marine Ecosystems under Threat

Climate Impacts and Adaptation Science

Observations

ExperimentsModels

Detection

EvaluationAdaptation(strategies)

Model scenarios

Impacts(Attribution)

BIOLOGY

Socio-economic

ReviewsDesk-top studies

Discovery science

Marine Ecosystems under Threat

Recent Reviews – Biological

Hobday A.J., Okey T.A., Poloczanska E.S., Kunz T.J. & Richardson A.J. (eds.) 2007. Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Marine Life.

Hobday A.J., E. Poloczanska, R. Matear (eds.) 2008. Review of Climate Impacts on Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture

Voice et al (2006). Vulnerability to climate change of Australia’s coastal zone

Hobday, A., Poloczanska, E., Matear, R., Preston, N., Okey, T. A., Thresher, R., Klaer, N., Lyne, V., Bax, N., Rintoul, S. Caputi, N. Young, J. Leaper, R.

Climate Change Impacts on Aquaculture

Impact Fresh water/ Pond

Coastal Off shore

Warming temperature + / - + / - + / -Decreased rainfall - + / - + / -Rising sea level ? -Ocean acidification ? ?Increased extreme events (storms) - - -Declining ocean productivity? ? ?

Do we have the management structure to take opportunities and reduce impact?

Climate impacts on aquaculture

• Physical environment changes• Winds => increase (site selection?)• Temperature => increase (species selection?)• Rainfall => decrease?? (runoff impacts)

• Biological relationships for (sea) farmed species (systems)• Algal blooms – temperature and stratification• Pathogens – temperature

• Economic impacts• Fuel costs (cost)• Increased demand for farmed species (benefit)• Fish meal demand and price (cost?)• Biofouling – (cost)

• Challenges for future prediction: mismatch of scales• Spatial scales: large for physical predictions and offshore• Temporal scales: short for biological time series

Adaptation is crucial

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Changing Climate

Planning Horizon

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Changing Climate

Planning Horizon

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Aquaculture is “ahead” with regard to planning

Adaptation a standard business practice (genetic improvement)

Key Points: Climate Change and Fisheries and Aquaculture

• Understanding climate impacts on fisheries• Studies of climate variability lead to understanding about climate change

impacts.• Paleo-ecology studies can shed light on past response to climate

fluctuation

• Fisheries will be impacted differently according to the physical changes in the regional environment and species characteristics

• A number of stocks are over-exploited; the additional impact of climate change is of concern to future sustainability.

• Increased temperatures at the southern end of species’ ranges leaves little room for further southward migration, thus fishers will likely be affected.

• Socio-economic Impacts• Aquaculture industries have considerable adaptation potential via selective

breeding, regulating the environment, and new species opportunities• Wild fisheries will see increased opportunity where warmer-water species

move southward or increase • For southern fisheries, reconciling non-climate threats with increasing

temperature will require proactive management.• Management structures and policies that account for climate change will

allow most flexibility in adapting to future patterns.

Key questions for fisheries and aquaculture

• Will my species be impacted?• How, positive/negative?

• Will there be new opportunities?• Species, markets, social?

• Is my business adaptable to CC?• Clients, seasons, processing, transport

• Is management policy compatible with CC?• Spatial management and allocation of rights to

area and species?

Rational options

Efficient options

Appealing options

Choices: Informed, efficient, pragmaticChoices: Informed, efficient, pragmatic

Hobday, Marshall, Marshall

Rational options

Efficient options

Appealing options

with climate change, a change in the space

Hobday, Marshall, Marshall

Choices: Informed, efficient, pragmaticChoices: Informed, efficient, pragmatic

Thank you

Climate Adaptation FlagshipClimate Impacts Grouphttp://www.cmar.csiro.au/climateimpacts/

Alistair HobdayPhone: +61 3Email: alistair.hobday@csiro.au

Anthony RichardsonPhone: +61 3Email: anthony.richardson@csiro.au

Elvira PoloczanskaPhone: +61 3 6232 5141Email: elvira.poloczanska@csiro.au

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au