march 2015 debt investor update€¦ · book value of fleet €5.3bn market value of fleet €7.1bn...

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© Ryanair 2014 Debt Investor Update March 2015

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Page 1: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Debt Investor Update

March 2015

Page 2: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Europe ’s Onl y U l t ra Low Cost Car r ier

Proven, resilient business model

Europe’s lowest fares/lowest unit costs

Europe’s No 1, Traffic – 90m (No.1 or 2 market leader)

Europe’s No 1, Coverage – 72 Bases, 189 Airports, 30 Countries

Europe’s No 1, C’mer Service – Lowest Fares/On-time/Bags/Cancellations

– “Always Getting Better” / Digital Rollout

Forward bookings, load factors & traffic rising

380 new aircraft order = growth to 160m pa by FY24

Industry leading cash generation & liquidity

Unblemished 30 year safety record

World’s highest rated airline, BBB+ (stable), S&P & Fitch

2

Page 3: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Res i l ient Model – P ro f i t Growth T hrough Cycle

3

(Forecast)

(Forecast)

6 8 11 16 23

28 35

45 51

59 67

72 76 79 82 90

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Customers (m)

9/11

SARS

Madrid Bombings

London Bombings

Financial Crisis &

Oil Spike

Ash Cloud

EU Recession

130 180 226 340 381

473 547

673 786

427

733 863

1,083 1,146 1,112

35.2% 37.0% 36.2% 40.4% 35.4% 35.8% 32.3% 30.1% 29.0%

14.5%

34.5%

23.8% 24.7% 23.5% 22.0%

-150.0%

-130.0%

-110.0%

-90.0%

-70.0%

-50.0%

-30.0%

-10.0%

10.0%

30.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EBITDAR (€m) FY 31 March

EBITDAR Margin FY 31 March

Page 4: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

RYA EZY NOR

Staff

Airport & hand

Route charges

Own’ship & maint.

Sales, marketing, & other

Total

% > Ryanair

€6

€8

€6

€7

€2

€29

€9

€21

€6

€8

€7

€52

+ 76%

€15

€14

€8

€21

€4

€62

+114%

€35

€8

€0

€16

€15

€74

+155%

LUV Spirit

€19

€6

€0

€19

€15

€59

+103%

€17

€27

€8

€29

€26

€107

+270%

AB1

Europe ’s Lowest Cost (Ex Fuel )

Source: Latest Annual Reports 4

Page 5: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Europe ’s Lowest Fares

Avg. Fare

€46

€83

€84

€93

€121

€235

€242

€300

5

Avg. Competitor Fare €163

+80%

+83%

+102%

+163%

+411%

+426%

+552%

Source: Latest Annual Reports

Page 6: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

72 bases (Yellow boxes)

189 airports

30 countries

1,600+ routes

100m c’mers

306 x B737-800’s

374 x Boeings on order

Europe ’s No 1 Coverage

6

Page 7: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

.

FY15 FY16 FY17

FY14

FY20 FY18 FY19 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

57 62

81.7

62

63

160

90

7

Europe ’s No 1 For Traf f ic Growth

Source: Latest traffic stats for 12 months to Mar’14 and company forecasts

Customers (m)

Page 8: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Europe ’s No 1 A i r l ine

UK (117)

Germany (112)

Spain (105)

Italy (85)

France (72)

Portugal (19)

Belgium (15)

Ireland (15)

Poland (15)

Morocco (12)

16%

4%

18%

25%

7%

17%

25%

46%

26%

12%

Share Country (Capacity m)* No. 1 No. 2

BA

Iberia

EasyJet

EasyJet

Jetairfly

BA

Wizz

EasyJet

No. 3

Air Berlin

Vueling

Alitalia

EasyJet

SN Brussels

Aer Lingus

LOT

Easyjet

Lufthansa

AF- KLM

TAP

RAM

8

* Source: Cap Stats Departing Seats 2014

Page 9: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

90m

100m

106m

114m

120m

128m

136m

143m

150m

160m

FY’15

FY’16

FY’17

FY’18

FY’19

FY’20

FY’21

FY’22

FY’23

FY’24

C’mers P.A.

73

7-8

00

Ord

er

MA

X O

rde

r Fleet

(at YE)

308

340

368

402

420

451

468

489

509

520

Growth Ann Cum

+ 10%

+ 11%

+ 6%

+ 8%

+ 5%

+ 7%

+ 6%

+ 5%

+ 5%

+ 7%

+ 10%

+ 22%

+ 30%

+ 40%

+ 47%

+ 57%

+ 66%

+ 75%

+ 84%

+ 96%

Moderate F leet / Tra f f ic Growth FY15 to FY24

9

Page 10: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

“Always Getting Better” programme

Business Plus & Family Extra Service

90m customers (up 10%)*

87% Load factor (up 5% points)*

530,000+ flights, over 90% on-time

First 9 of 380 new B737 aircraft delivered

8 new bases: Athens, Brussels, Cologne, Gdansk, Glasgow, Lisbon, Salonika & Warsaw

19 new airports incl. Copenhagen, Hamburg, Santorini & Stuttgart

FY’15 profit after tax guidance raised to €840m - €850m range*

2014 /15 – A Recor d Year for Ryanai r

10

* Guidance to FY 31 March 2015 (2nd February 2015)

Page 11: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Forwar d Bookings Dr iv ing Load Factor s

11

Load Factors

FY’14 FY’15

Apr 81% 84% +3%

May 82% 85% +3%

Jun 84% 88% +4%

Jul 88% 91% +3%

Aug 89% 93% +4%

Sep 85% 90% +5%

Oct 83% 89% +6%

Nov 81% 88% +7%

Dec 81% 88% +7%

Jan 71% 83% +12%

Page 12: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Q3 Resul ts

Dec '13

Dec '14

Traffic 18.3m 20.8m +14%

Load Factor 82% 88% +6% points

Avg. Fare (incl. bag) €39 €40 +2%

Rev. Per Pax €53 €54 +3%

Revenue €964m €1,132m +17%

Net Profit / (loss) (€35m) €49m +€84m

Net Margin (4%) +4% +8% points

12

Page 13: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Q3 Balance Sheet

(i) Includes €850m euro bond proceeds (June 2014)

Mar '14 Dec '14

€m €m Aircraft (inc. dep) 5,570 6,385

Cash 3,242 4,121 (i)

Total Net Cash 8,812 10,506 Net Cash

€158m €447m

Liabilities 2,442 2,783

Debt 3,084 3,674 (i)

S/H Funds 3,286 4,049

Total 8,812 10,506

13

Page 14: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Indust r y Leading Cash Generat ion & L iqu id i ty

€447m net cash at 31 December 2014

Will maintain net cash at YE 15 post: - €520m dividend

- Start of €400m buyback programme

- CAPEX

- Secured debt repayments

Consistently Strong EBITDAR Margins Results in Industry Leading Liquidity

2,898

3,481 3,534 3,242

80.0% 79.0% 72.0% 64.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

-400

100

600

1100

1600

2100

2600

3100

3600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cash Cash / Revenues

14

863

1,083 1,146 1,112

23.8% 24.7% 23.5% 22.0%

-150.0%

-130.0%

-110.0%

-90.0%

-70.0%

-50.0%

-30.0%

-10.0%

10.0%

30.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EBITDAR (€m) EBITDAR Margin

Page 15: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Conser vat ive F inancia l Po l ic ies

Significant cash balances (circa €4bn)

- No liquidity lines required

- Ample unsecured hedging lines

- Cash in term or structured deposits

- Placed with highly rated institutions

Strong positive working capital

- Very low cost base

- Customers pay in advance

- Pre delivery payments paid with cash

- Potential to buy aircraft with cash

Hedging Shareholder Returns

€520m dividend in Feb ‘15

€400m share buyback programme

Further returns subject to Shareholder approval &:

- Continuing profitability

- Economic environment

- CAPEX

- Fuel prices

- Fares

OPEX, 70%-90%, 12-30 months forward

CAPEX, 70%-100%, 12 months to FY’18

Match GBP costs & revenues

Interest rate exposure >70% fixed

Floating interest exposure matched with

cash deposits

Liquidity Management Capital Management

15

Page 16: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Year Jet Fuel Currency

% cover $/MT % cover €/$

FY’14 - $980 - $1.31

FY’15 90% $950 90% $1.34

FY’16 90% $920 90% $1.33

FY’17 35% $680 60% $1.21

Fue l Hedging

RYR expects some/all fuel saving to be passed on in lower fares

(“Load factor active / yield passive”)

Source: Q3 results statement on 2nd February 2015 16

Page 17: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Amortisation of Existing Debt Balances (€m)*

Debt Repayment Schedule (€m)*

Ex is t ing Debt Matur i ty Schedule

17 * Assuming a €/S Rate of $1.10

Page 18: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Total Assets (Book Value) Total Assets (Fair Value) Secured Debt

€4.1bn Cash

€4.1bn Cash €1.1bn Other Assets

€1.1bn Other Assets

Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn

Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn

Secured Debt €2.8bn

€10.5bn

€2.8bn

€12.3bn

F leet Va luat ion & Secured Debt Coverage*

Total Assets (Book Value) / Secured Debt = 3.8 x Coverage

Total Assets (Fair Value) / Secured Debt = 4.4 x Coverage

18 * As of 31st December 2014

Page 19: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Wor ld ’s H ighest Rated A i r l ine

BBB+ corporate rating from S&P & Fitch

– World's highest rated airline

– Stable outlooks

– “A-” anchor (S&P), notched due to possible CAPEX & shareholder returns

– Industry leading liquidity, cost base & cash generation

– BBB+ note rating expected

Low cost source of Euro unsecured debt

Supplements existing financing options, Ex-Im available as low cost backstop

19

Page 20: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Out look*

Q4’15 traffic up 25% (FY’15 90m +10%, FY’16 100m +11%)

Q4’15 fares down: -6% to -8% (Jan pricing softer)

Unit cost down -5%, (ex fuel flat)

Oil price falling, 90% hedged FY’16, 35% FY’17

FY’15 profit after tax guidance raised to €840m - €850m

€520m dividend (€0.375ps) Feb, €400m share buyback (Feb – Aug)

Strong net cash position at year end

“Always Getting Better” delivers for customers and investors

20

*Source: Q3 results statement on 2nd February 2015

Page 21: March 2015 Debt Investor Update€¦ · Book Value of Fleet €5.3bn Market Value of Fleet €7.1bn Secured Debt €2.8bn €10.5bn €2.8bn €12.3bn Fleet Valuation & Secured Debt

© Ryanair 2014

Certain of the information included in this presentation is forward looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon future circumstances that may or may not occur. A number of factors could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those express or implied by the forward-looking statements including those identified in this presentation and other factors discussed in our Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC. It is not reasonably possible to itemise all of the many factors and specific events that could affect the outlook and results of an airline operating in the European economy. Among the factors that are subject to change and could significantly impact Ryanair’s expected results are the airline pricing environment, fuel costs, competition from new and existing carriers, market prices for the replacement aircraft, costs associated with environmental, safety and security measures, actions of the Irish, U.K., European Union (“EU”) and other governments and their respective regulatory agencies, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates, airport access and charges, labour relations, the economic environment of the airline industry, the general economic environment in Ireland, the UK and Continental Europe, the general willingness of passengers to travel and other economics, social and political factors and flight interruptions caused by volcanic ash emissions or other atmospheric disruptions. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of events or developments referred to in this presentation on the Ryanair Group. Forward looking statements contained in this presentation based on trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. Except as may be required by the Market Abuse Rules of the Central Bank of Ireland, Listing Rules of the Irish Stock Exchange or by any other rules of any applicable regulatory body or by law, the Company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward statements contained herein to reflect any changes in the Company’s expectations with regard to any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements as defined under US legislation. By their nature, such statements involve uncertainty; as a consequence, actual results and developments may differ from those expressed in or implied by such statements depending on a variety of factors including the specific factors identified in this presentation and other factors discussed in our Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC

Discla imer

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