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HL/MPV Fleet BeatFleet Analysis 1Q17
25th April 2017
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Agenda
• Vessel Supply‒ Multipurpose vessels and project carriers
• Cargo Demand‒ Dry cargo demand, General cargo demand and Project cargo
• Sector Competition‒ Handy bulk carriers and Container vessels
• Market Outlook‒ Challenges and conclusions
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Vessel Supply
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Vessel SupplyMPV Fleet age profile (’000 dwt)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyMPV Fleet age profile by type (’000 dwt)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyMPV Fleet profile by vessel type (’000 dwt)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel Supply
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk))
MPV orderbook / delivery schedule (no. of vessels)
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Vessel SupplyMPV & HeavyLift demolitions (‘000 dwt) Average age of demolitions (years)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyFleet development to 2018 (‘000 dwt)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Vessel SupplyFleet development by vessel type to 2018 (’000 dwt)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Cargo Demand
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World economic growth (% change)
Crude oil price – Dubai ($/bbl)
Crude Steel Production (million tonnes)
Key Drivers
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
Cargo Demand
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Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
Cargo DemandDry bulk demand
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Cargo DemandDevelopment of dry cargo demand (million tonnes)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Cargo DemandDevelopment of General cargo demand (million tonnes)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Cargo DemandDevelopment of MPV market share (million tonnes)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Sector Competition
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Sector competitionDrewry all-earnings index
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Sector competitionWeighted East-West Container rates ($ per teu) Estimated bulk carrier time charter rates ($pd)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Sector competitionIndicative newbuilding prices ($m) Trend in second-hand prices ($m)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Market Outlook
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Market outlookSupply vs Demand balance
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Market outlookSupply vs Demand Index – Projected movement in rates
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)
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Market Outlook
Fivethingsyouneedtoknow
• Drycargodemandisforecasttogrowatanannualrateof2.2%to2018
• Heavylift fleetisexpectedtogrowat3.0%ayearto2018,whilethesimpleMPVfleetdeclinesatarateof2%overtheperiod
• Projectcargodemandlikelytoremainsubdueduntiloilpricesriseover$80/bbl
• Carriervettingwillbecomeasimportantasshipvettingifshipperscontinuetodriveratesdown
• Outlookforthemarketisbrighterthanbeforebutreliesheavilyonthecontinuedimprovementinthecompetingsectors
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DREWRY
ü Long-established industry referenceü Annual Market Review and Forecast
Published March 2017ü plus 3 quarterly updates
ü Highly detailed and unique analysis on:ü Tradeü Fleetü Marketü Economics and costs
ü Quantitative and qualitative analyses
ü Independent and carefully judged
ü Essential reference for all multipurpose and heavy-lift shipping market stakeholders
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