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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Mobile Services Evolution
Evgeni KarakanovskyDirector Business Development and Services
MobilTel EAD
UMTS Forum member
Mobile Services EvolutionMobile Services Evolution
Evgeni KarakanovskyDirector Business Development and Services
MobilTel EAD
UMTS Forum member
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Many countries decided on IMT-2000Many countries decided on IMT-2000
Today‘s Mobile Services Market
Status June 2002 worldwide
Voice > 1 billion usersSMS > 30 billion SMS/monthData > 50 million i-mode, WAP, GPRS
subscriptions
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Mobile Revenue TrendsMobile Revenue Trends
Source: Durlacher report on mobile commerce
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Central and Eastern European Market dataCentral and Eastern European Market data
Siemens
EMC
Source
169Mn148Mn125Mn99Mn74Mn
113Mn103Mn92Mn79Mn64Mn
End 2006
End 2005
End 2004
End 2003
End 2002
Total Mobile users (analogue and digital standards)
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Most popular Data Applications in early Mobile Data MarketsPercentage use of data services
Most popular Data Applications in early Mobile Data MarketsPercentage use of data services
E-Mail, SMS
Ring tone/screendownload
Other (GPRS...)
Games
Information
Transaction
Directories
JapanI-mode (NTT DoCoMo) accessbreakdown, September 2000
Korean-Top (SK Telecom) accessbreakdown, August 2000
GSM CountriesSMS, GPRS, HSCSD
20
36
12
12
11
6
1
4,3
11
29
25
N/A
3 N/A
N/A
95
1
3
N/A
N/A
0
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Paper guide& telephone
Online guide &online ticket reservation
Real-time guidewith nearest cinema & mobileticketing
Find out a nice movieand buya ticket
Phone, postcards & picturesE-mails, attachments, SMS, videos etc.
Video-telephony, Photo messaging via mobile
Sending a “hello” from vacation
Board games Gameboy, Playstation etc. (Interactive) Mobile gaming
GamingService
1990 2000 2005
Changing Lifestyles & End-user HabitsChanging Lifestyles & End-user Habits
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Mobile Services Value ChainMobile Services Value Chain
MobileConnectivity
Contentmanagement
Application Development
Application Platform Operation
Gateway Services
Service Provisioning
& CRM
Contentcreation
Systems & business integration
Content Applications Mobile NetworkAggregation
and Sales
MobileConnectivity
Service Provisioning
& CRM
The “old” voice centric mobile industry:
user interface
The “new” mobile data industry:
Source: Siemens ICM N M P (2001)
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Sou
rce:
EU
Com
mis
sion
Rep
ort 6
/200
2
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
UMTS extends the business chain for 3rd
Party Content ServicesUMTS extends the business chain for 3rd
Party Content Services
Business Chain
ITU/3GPPIMT-2000
CommercialCommercial
UMTS
IETF/ISOInternet
Terminal Radionetwork
Corenetwork
Networkapplications
Contentproviders
ISP’s Portals
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
UMTS Service CategoriesUMTS Service Categories
Intranets Internet Services Mobile Internet PSTN
PDA
BusinessUser
Business + Consumer
Consumer Business + Consumer
Business + Consumer
Intranet Access Internet Access CustomizedInfotainment
MultimediaMessaging
LocationBased Service Voice
UMTS Services
PDALaptop
SmartPhone SmartPhoneLaptop
Mobile PhoneMobile Phone
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
3G Revenue Growth till 20103G Revenue Growth till 2010
Worldwide Revenues - All Services
Serv
ice
Rev
enue
s ($
M)
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Simple VoiceRich VoiceLocation-Based ServicesBusiness MMSMobile Internet AccessConsumer MMSMobile Intranet/Extranet AccessCustomised Infotainment
Source: Telecompetition Inc., February 2001
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Internet Access: 3 % Operator Revenues (2010)Internet Access: 3 % Operator Revenues (2010)
Applications:Messaging (E-Mails, SMS, MMS)Download video, music, streamingVoIP, Video over IPm-banking
m-commerce (m-purchasing), trading
www travel
www Infoservices
ServiceAccess
Billing forAirtime
Connectivity
ContentProvider
Portal
ISP
Business UserConsumer
3G Operator Internet
MobileISP
Seite 7
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Intranet/Extranet Access:15 % Operator Revenues (2010)Intranet/Extranet Access:15 % Operator Revenues (2010)
Enterprise Applications:Messaging (E-Mails), Travel assistance (www)Mobile Sales, Technical ServicesTeleworking, Access to Corporate Database
Video Telephony, Conferencing
Fleet Management, Warehouse
ServiceAccess
Billing forAirtime
ContentProvider
CorporatePortal
CorporateISP
Mobile Office,Business User
3G Operator Enterprise
IP network‚Mobile
ISP‘ Fire
wal
l /Se
curit
y
Connectivity,Roaming
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Customized Infotainment:28 % Operator Revenues (2010)Customized Infotainment:28 % Operator Revenues (2010)
Applications:Information (photo, video, music download)www TravelEducation (Schools, Universities)Mobile messaging, Chatting (SMS, MMS)
Gaming
m-shopping, banking, e-wallet, micro-payment
voice portal
video portal
Billing forService
AffinityPartner
Business UserConsumer
3G Operator 3rd Parties
RevenueSharing
UserProfile
MobilePortal
ISP MobilePortal
ContentProvider
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Multimedia Messaging:15 % Operator Revenues (2010)Multimedia Messaging:15 % Operator Revenues (2010)
Applications = Extension of SMS:MMS: Image, Video, Unified Messaging
Mobile postcard, video/audio clip
Billing forMessaging
Billing forMMS Download
User 3G Operator User(3rd Party)
ConnectivityRoaming
CustomerProfile
MMSServer
MS Office documents
Mobile chatting
Machine-to-Machine
Photo messaging
Music
Video messaging
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Location based Services:3 % Operator RevenuesLocation based Services:3 % Operator Revenues
Applications:Navigation (person, car)Localised Info (yellow pages)Location based m-commerceTelematicsTrading (vehicle, goods, person)
ServiceFees
User 3G Operator 3rd Parties
RevenueSharing
UserProfile
UserLocationContext
Content
UserLocation Mobile
Portal
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Rich Voice:34 % Operator RevenuesRich Voice:34 % Operator Revenues
Connectivity
RoamingCharge
User 3G Operator User
ConnectivityRoaming
UserProfile
BillingAirtime
Voice/Video over IPCircuit switched voice/video
Applications:Telephony/ConferencingVideotelephony, Conferencing, PresenceTelemedicineTeleworking (building industry etc.)Multimedia communication (IMS)
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Service Transmission Times Mobile/Fixed NetworksService Transmission Times Mobile/Fixed Networks
ServiceData Volume
2nd GenerationGSM - GPRS
FixedPSTN / ISDN< 64 kbps
3rd GenerationUMTS
Web page20 kbyteDocument100 kbyte3 min Audio CD2 Mbyte MP310s Videoclip600 kbyte MPEG4
1) Optimal CD QualityStreaming = 128 kbps
2) Videostreaming
9,6 kbps 50 kbps 128 kbps 384 kbps 2 Mbps
E-mail5 kbyteSMS with photogr.5 kbyte (JPEG 2000)
8 s 1,7 s
8 s 1,7 s
20 s 4,5 s
2 min 35 s
40 min 9 min
10 min 2,5 min
1,6 s
1,6 s
4 s
25 s
6,5 min
1,5 min
1,2 s 0,5 s <0,5s
1,2 s 0,5 s <0,5s
2,4 s 0,8 s <0,5s
12 s 4 s <1s
3 min ---1) ---1)
45 s 15 s2)
Transfer Time
User acceptance
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
How will Services Differ in the Regions of the World?How will Services Differ in the Regions of the World?
i Requirements vary in the regions regardingservices and applications
i Wireless access to the Internet may be thefirst driver for 3G in many countries in orderto get faster penetration – public WLAN accesswill be complementary
i Specific Mobile Services will come from 2Gevolution: MMS, Rich Voice, LBS, Infotainment
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
3G leads to new Business Models3G leads to new Business Models
MobilePortal
RichVoiceand
SimpleVoice
InternetAccess
Intranet/ExtranetAccess
MultimediaMessaging
Service(MMS)
Location-based
Services
Customisedinfotain-
ment
Mobile ISP Mobile SpecialisedServices
VoiceInformation and Content
CONTENT CONNECTIVITY(Internet)
MOBILITY
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Multimedia Messaging ServiceRevenues by Region in 2005 and 2010Multimedia Messaging ServiceRevenues by Region in 2005 and 2010
Source: UMTS ForumConsumer Business
0
2
4
6
8
10
Serv
ice
Rev
enue
s ($
bio)
North America Asia Pacific Europe Rest of World
12
14
16
18
2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010
© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
The UMTS Forum Estimatesshow thatThe UMTS Forum Estimatesshow that
Wireless Access accelerates Internet Penetration compared to wireline access(for business, for schools, private)UMTS Services will dominate in the global market place – Economy of scaleGlobal Industry Support for Service Evolution from 2G to 3G
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© UMTS Forum 2003 ITU Seminar IMT-2000, 21-24th January 2003Sofia, Evgeni Karakanovsky MobilTel EAD
Thank you for your Attention!Thank you for your Attention!
UMTS ForumRussell Square House10 - 12 Russell Square
London WC1B 5EEUnited Kingdom
Website: www.umts-forum.org