manufuture „2030“ - eurosfaire · manufuture conference derby, uk 2006 high level group expert...

industrial technologies 2010

MANUFUTURE – go ahead „2030“

Dr. – Ing. S. Stender


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Dr.-Ing. Siegfried Stender

Overview

Future Markets Sources:

• OECD

• Foresight Studies

• RB 2030

• Grand Challenges

• Megatrends

• EC strategy papers

Future Technologies Sources:

• Vision Papers of ETPs

Future Competences 2010

2030

2020 Vision 2020

SRA

Road maps (Leadership)

FP7 projects


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the MANUFUTURE story

1st.

ManuFutureConference

Mailand,Italy

2003 2004

2nd.


Enschede,Netherlands

2005

Strategic Research

Agenda (SRA)

3rd.


Derby, UK

2006

High Level GroupExpert Group

4th.


Tampere, Finland

5th.


Porto, Portugal

2007 2008

6th.


St. Etienne, France

<JTI>

7th.


Gothenburg, Sweden

NMPConference

Brussels,

Belgium

2009 2010

Vision 2020

7. Framework Programm

Road mapsSectorial

Transsectorial

Implementation

EFFRA

High Level Group (HLG), Implementation Support Group (ISG), Working Groups (WGs), IAG, MG, NRTP

Factories of theFuture PPP

strategicmulti-annual

roadmapPorto

Manifesto


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MANUFUTURE Strategic Research Agenda (SRA)

Drivers

Goals

Competition

Rapid technology renewal

Eco-sustainability

Socio economic environment

Regulation

Values – public acceptability

Time scale

Agenda objectives

Con-tinuous

Short-medium term

Medium term

Long term Long term

Make/ delivery products services

Inno-vating researchInnovating products

Transformation of industry Transf.of R&D

New added value

products and

services

New business models

Advanced industrial

engi-neering

Emerging manu-

facturing sciences

and tech-nologies

Infra-structures

and education

Processes Standards


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Transsectorial and Sectorial Road Maps (Leadership)


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Transsectorial Road Map (1): New Business Models

Management of E

uropean Production Systems

Survival Strategies in

turbulent

Environments

Service

and Consumer- oriented

Life Cycle Management New Taylorism

Beyond Lean

Manufacturing

Management of

Global Networking

Virtual and Real-time

Factory

Management

European Answer

for

Production Systems

Management of

European Factories

Finance, Innovation

Entrepreneurship

Innovative, service and consumer-oriented enterprises

Factories as Products

Transformation

Management for

survival and success

European

Production

Systems and

Standards


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EFFRA - Strategic Multiannual Roadmap

EFFRA:

European Factories of the Future Research Association a MANUFUTURE initiative


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Francesco Jovane:


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MANUFUTURE Strategic Intelligence (SI) as a revolving process

next generation

MANUFUTURE road-map

monitoring foresight

implementation roadmapping

Francesco Jovane:

MANUFUTURE cycle


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a lot of foresight studies are available - examples

EU: „The world in 2025“

consultants:

Roland Berger

Germany: BMBF / VDI Technologiezentrum

„relevant technology forecasts ...“

Germany: BMBF / Fraunhofer

foresight process


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BMBF „relevant technology forecasts ...“ - example of available studies

• Sustainability and environment

• Information and communication technologies

• Bio-technology and Life Sciences

• Health (+ medicine technology) & food

• Energy

• Production and process technology

• Material technology

• Nano - and microsystem technology

• Transport, traffic and logistics

• Aviation and astronautics

• Construction and living

• Defence and security

• Electronics

• Optical technologies

• Services

• Maritime technologies and navigation


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BMBF foresight study - example of available studies

Human-Technology Cooperation

Ageing Deciphering

Sustainable Living Spaces

ProductionConsumption2.0

Trans-disciplinary models and multi-scale

simulation

Time research

Sustainable energy solutions


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looking in

the future

-

telling fortunes ?

or inspiration

for possible scenarios ?


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research activities and technology life cycle

short medium

very large Time

Basic Technology

Next Generation Technology

Technology Life Cycles

uncertainty, forecast and

perspective

short and medium term:

-> more specific topics

medium and long term:

-> more general topics


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short + medium term: Economic and industry cycle

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up and down in the automotive industrie

Prime Automotive Index, quaterly…

source: historical data XETRA, 03.01.2000 – 05.09.2010


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medium + long term: Gartner e-business hype cycle, 1999

source: J. Fenn and M. Raskino, Mastering the hype cycle, Harvard Business Press 2008


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next generation MANUFUTURE roadmap -> process

MANUFUTURE road-map( discussion process )

bottom-up approachtop-down approach

discussions about• relevance and• priorities

Branches• strength and• perspectives

survey and round-table of experts from industry

next generationMANUFUTURE road-map

( final version )

suggestions for calls:


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next generation MANUFUTURE roadmap -> Bottom-up approach

bottom-up approach

basic technologies( complete overview )

new technologiesemerging technologies

( complete overview )

ETP´sSRA´s and road-maps

( relevant for manufacturing sector )


( discussion process )

suggestions for calls:• EU• national programs• other initiatives


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ETP´s (key enabling technologies): source for bottom-up approach

Extract,

not completely!


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next generation MANUFUTURE roadmap -> Top-down approach

top-down approachgrand challenges (Lund declaration*)

• energy and material saving*,• sustainable mobility*, • food security and agriculture, • healthcare and ageing society*,• sustainable consumption + production*

• IT for manufacturing

possible new productsunsolved problemsemerging solutions

go one level deeperdifferentiation level

what does this mean--->

manufacturing problem





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grand challenge: sustainable mobility

Andorra (1) 926,97

Luxembourg (4) 655,43 Italy (8) 605

Germany (9) 573,03 Canada (11) 551,17 USA (12) 535,29

Japan (13) 527,67 Belgium (17) 517,39

France (22) 499,54 Great Britain (26) 465,06 China (138) 12,22

India (145) 9,82

Cars per 1000 inhabitants (2007)

-

200.000.000

400.000.000

600.000.000

800.000.000

1.000.000.000

1.200.000.000

1.400.000.000

China

China + India

vehicles in 2030 ??:

500 cars per 1000 inhabitants

in China and India ??

situation today possible scenario

??


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Top-down approach example: Battery electric vehicle

top-down approach(example)

grand challenges (Lund declaration*)



Battery electric vehicle

traction motormotor controller

battery / energy storagelightweight materials and structuresadvanced driver assistance systems

(ADAS)

reduce weightlong life safety (more then 15 years)

reduce costs, mass production,charge cycles, infrastructure

mass production (composite materials)

IT / integration




man

ufa

ctu

rin

gp

rob

lem

s


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sustainable mobility -> battery electric vehicle

grand challenges (Lund declaration*)



Battery electric vehicle

source: GELBART AG

Meyra-Ortopedia Scooter Cityliner 415


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Battery electric vehicle –> hype or future ?

source pictures: auto-motor-und-sport.de

sourc

e g

raph:

J. F

enn a

nd M

. R

askin

o,

Maste

rin

g t

he h

ype c

ycle

, H

arv

ard

Busin

ess P

ress 2

008


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the spirit of manufacturing

EconomicEffectiveness

Integration

ProductionSystem

Eco Efficiency Social-Efficiency

Economy

SocialsEcology

Social-EffectivenessEcologic Effectiveness

Source: BMU econsense

manufacturing

key-words are

• costs

• scope and scale

• mass production

• time and quality


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translation in manufacturing topics

traction motormotor controller

battery / energy storagelightweight materials and structuresadvanced driver assistance systems

(ADAS)

reduce weightlong life safety (more then 15 years)

reduce costs, mass production,charge cycles, infrastructure

mass production (composite materials)

IT / integration

production

problems /

challenges


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Mass

production

in discussion: 4 major topics (top-down approach)

Down-town

production

The next

generation IT

for production

Green factory


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“top down” approach: 4 major topics (1)

Down-town production -> sustainable consumption and production

-> sustainable mobility

- manufacturing in bigger cities / megacities

- on-site configuration

- customized products - production

- event-oriented production

Down-town

production


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Green factory -> energy and material saving

-> renewable energy

- lowest ressource consumption / energy

- low to zero emissions

- close loops for products / production

- sustainability in material, production

processes / workers

green factury


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Mass production -> „jobs, jobs, jobs“

- mass production back to europe

- high competitive products (cost, quality)

- high bandwidth of products (simple – sophisticate)

- high sophisticated manufacturing (micro, nano) /

logistics

mass

production


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The next generation IT

for production -> aging society

-> enabling technology for grand challenges

- smart, grid, cloud, … - computing

- „internet 2.0/3.0 – social networks“ für production

- vitual <-> real production / smooth transition

- hard and soft learning-knowledge back-bone for life time

learning

The next

generation IT

for production


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MANUFUTURE relevant areas - “solutions, services and products”

MANUFUTURE

automotive, consumer goods textile maritime photovoltaic, windmills, bio, ... lighting healthcare Food industry biotechnology …

robotics laser machine tools coating and printing joining and assembling machine tools and tooling instruments material handling, transport and logistic …

steel : rolling mills paper mills chemical industry: pumps and pipes (precision + micro) …

automation computers digital / virtual manufacturing simulation …

material machine parts assembling, configuration product

process, ICT

Dr. – Ing. S. Stender

thank you for your attention !


manufuture „2030“ - eurosfaire · manufuture conference derby, uk 2006 high level group expert...

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