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TRANSCRIPT
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Heading3 - 1
Managerial Decision Making LearningManagerial Decision Making Learning
ObjectivesObjectives
After studying this slides 3, you will know:
the kinds of decisions you will face as a manager
how to make rational decisions
the pitfalls you should avoid when making decisions the pros and cons of using a group to make decisions
the procedures to use in leading a decision-making group
how to encourage creative decisions
the processes by which decisions are made in organizations
how to make decisions in a crisis
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Lack of
Structure
Risk
Conflict
Uncertainty
Characteristics Of Managerial DecisionsCharacteristics Of Managerial Decisions
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Characteristics Of Managerial DecisionsCharacteristics Of Managerial Decisions
(cont.)(cont.)
Lack of structure
the usual state of affairs in managerial decision making
programmed decisions - decisions that have been encountered
and made in the past
have objectively correct answers
are solvable by using simple rules, policies, or numerical
computations
nonprogrammer decisions- new, novel, complex decisionshaving no proven answers
decision maker must create or impose a method for making the
decision
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Comparison Of Types Of DecisionsComparison Of Types Of Decisions
Programmed Decisions Nonprogrammer Decisions
Problem
Procedure
Business
example
Frequent, repetitive, routine.
Much certainty regarding
cause and effect relationships.
Dependence on policies,
rules, and definite procedures.
Periodic reorders of inventory.
Novel, unstructured. Much
uncertainty regarding cause and
effect relationships.
Necessity for creativity, intuition,
tolerance for ambiguity, creative
problem solving.
Diversification in new products
and markets.
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Characteristics Of Managerial DecisionsCharacteristics Of Managerial Decisions
(cont.)(cont.)
Uncertainty and risk
certainty - have sufficient information to predict precisely the
consequences of ones actions
uncertainty - have insufficient information to know the
consequences of different actions
cannot estimate the likelihood of various consequences of their
actions
risk- available information permits estimation of the likelihood
of various consequencesprobability of an action being successful is less than 100 percent,
and losses may occur
good managers prefer to manage risk
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Conflict
opposing pressures from different sources
occurs at two levels
psychological conflict - individual decision makers: perceive several attractive options
perceive no attractive options
conflict between individuals or groups
few decisions are without conflict
Characteristics Of Managerial DecisionsCharacteristics Of Managerial Decisions
(cont.)(cont.)
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Identifying anddiagnosing
the problem
Generating
alternative
solutions
Evaluating
alternatives
Evaluating
the decision
Implementing
the decision
Making the
choice
The Stages Of Decision MakingThe Stages Of Decision Making
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Stages Of Decision MakingStages Of Decision Making
Identifying and diagnosing the problem recognize that a problem exists and must be solved
problem - discrepancy between current state and:
pastperformance
currentperformance of other organizations future expected performance
decision maker must want to resolve the problem and have the
resources to do so
Generating alternative solutions
ready-made solutions - ideas that have been tried before
may follow the advice of others who have faced similar problem
custom-made solutions - combining new ideas into solutions
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Stages Of Decision Making (cont.)Stages Of Decision Making (cont.)
Evaluating alternatives
determining the value or adequacy of the alternatives
predict the consequences that will occur if the various options
are put into effect managers should consider several types of consequences
success or failure of the decision will affect the track record of
the decision maker
contingency plans - alternative courses of action that can beimplemented based on how the future unfolds
contingency plans are necessary to prepare for different
scenarios
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Stages Of Decision Making (cont.)Stages Of Decision Making (cont.)
Making the choicemaximize - a decision realizing the best possible outcome
requires searching thoroughly for a complete range of alternatives
each alternative is carefully assessed
compare one alternative to another
satisfies - choose an option that is acceptable although not
necessarily the best or perfect
compare the choice with the goal, not against other options
search for alternatives ends when an okay solution is foundoptimizing- achieving the best possible balance among several
goals
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List the resources and
activities required to
implement each step
Estimate the time needed
for each step
Determine how things will
look when the decision
is fully operational
Implementation
Plan
Order the steps necessaryto achieve a fully
operational decision
Assign responsibility foreach step to specific
individuals
Steps In The Implementation PlanSteps In The Implementation Plan
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Stages Of Decision Making (cont.)Stages Of Decision Making (cont.)
Evaluating the decisioncollecting information on how well the decision is working
evaluation is useful whether the feedback is positive or negative
if decision appears inappropriate, the process cycles back to the first
stageThe best decision
nothing can guarantee a best decision
must be confident that theprocedures used are likely to produce the
best decision given the circumstances vigilance - decision maker carefully and conscientiously executes all
stages of decision making
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Barriers To Effective Decision MakingBarriers To Effective Decision Making
Psychological biases
biases that interfere with objective rationality
illusion of control- a belief that one can influence events
even when one has no control over what will happen
framing effects - how problems or decision alternatives are
phrased or perceived
subjective influences can override objective facts
discount the future - weigh short-term costs and benefitsmore heavily than longer-term costs and benefits
the avoidance of short-term costs or the seeking of short-term
rewards may result in negative long-term consequences
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Barriers To Effective Decision MakingBarriers To Effective Decision Making
(cont.)(cont.)
Time pressures
todays economy places a premium on acting quickly and
keeping pace
in order to make timely and high-quality decisions one must:
focus on real-time information
involve people more effectively and efficiently
rely on trusted experts
take a realistic view of conflictSocial realities
many decisions result from intensive social interactions,
bargaining, and politicking
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Potential Advantages
1. Larger pool of information
1. More perspectives andapproaches
3. Intellectual stimulation
1. People understand the
decision
5. People are committed to
the decision
Pros And Cons Of Using A Group ToPros And Cons Of Using A Group To
Make DecisionsMake Decisions
Potential Disadvantages
1. One person dominates
1. Satisfying
1. Groupthink - team spirit
discourages disagreement
1. Goal displacement - new
goals replace original goals
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Leadership1. Avoid domination
2. Encourage input
3. Avoid groupthink
and satisfying
4. Remember goals
Effective Group
Decision Making
Constructive Conflict1. Air legitimate
differences
2. Stay task-focused
3. Be impersonal
4. Play devils advocate
Managing Group Decision MakingManaging Group Decision Making
Creativity1. Brainstorm
2. Avoid criticizing
3. Exhaust ideas
4. Combine ideas
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Managing Group Decision MakingManaging Group Decision Making
Leadership style
leader should attempt to minimize process-related problems
leader should:
avoid dominating the discussion encourage less vocal members to express themselves
mitigate pressures for conformity
stay alert to groupthink and satisfying
prevent group from losing sight of the primary objective
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Managing Group Decision MakingManaging Group Decision Making
(cont.)(cont.)
Constructive conflicta certain amount ofconstructive conflict should exist
cognitive conflict- issue-based differences in perspectives or
judgments
a constructive type of conflict can air legitimate differences of opinion and develop better ideas
affective conflict- emotional disagreement directed toward other
people that is likely to be destructive conflict
two techniques used to purposely program cognitive conflict devils advocate - has the job of criticizing others
dialectic - structured debate comparing two conflicting courses of
action
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Managing Group Decision MakingManaging Group Decision Making
(cont.)(cont.)
Encouraging creativity creativity is essential to survival and involves:
creation - bringing a new thing into being
synthesis - joining two previously unrelated things
modification - improving something or giving it new application
to become creative one must: recognize creative potential in little opportunities
obtain sufficient resources
escape from work once in awhile and read widely
brainstorming- group generates ideas about a problem
evaluation of ideas is postponed until all have been proposed
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Organizational Decision MakingOrganizational Decision Making
Constraints on decision makersorganizations cannot do whatever they wish
MarketHuman
Financial
Constraints
LegalOrganizational
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Organizational Decision Making (cont.)Organizational Decision Making (cont.)
Models of organizational decision processesbounded rationality - decision makers cannot be truly rational
because:
they have imperfect, incomplete information about alternatives
the problems they face are so complex human beings cannot process all the information to which they are
exposed
time is limited
people in the organization have conflicting goalswhen the conditions above hold, perfectly rational decision
making gives way to more biased, subjective decision
processes
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O i i l i i ki ( )
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Organizational Decision Making (cont.)Organizational Decision Making (cont.)
Models of organizational decision processes (cont.) incremental model- major decisions arise through a series of
smaller decisions
piecemeal approach to larger solutions
coalitional model- groups with differing preferences use powerand negotiation to influence decisions
used when people disagree about goals or compete for resources
garbage can model- a chaotic process leading to seemingly
random decisions occurs when people are unsure of their goals and what should be done
a dramatic departure from rationality in decision making
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i i l i i ki ( )O i i l D i i M ki ( )
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HeadingOrganizational Decision Making (cont.)Organizational Decision Making (cont.)
Negotiations and politics
negotiations necessary to galvanize the preferences of
competing groups and individuals
organizational politics - people try to influence decisions to
promote their own interests
use power to pursue hidden agendas
create common goals - helps to make decision making a
collaborative rather than a competitive process
Decision making in a crisis
stress and time constraints make decisions less effective
should be prepared for crises in advance
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HeadingMistaken Assumptions: How Not ToMistaken Assumptions: How Not To
Handle Crisis ManagementHandle Crisis Management
We dont have a crisis.We can handle a crisis.
Crisis management is a luxury we cant afford.
If a major crisis happens, someone else will rescue us.
Accidents are just a cost of doing business.
Most crises are the fault of bad individuals; therefore, theres not much
we can do to prevent them.
Only executives need to be aware of our crisis plans; why scare our
employees or members of the community?
We are tough enough to react to a crisis in an objective and rationalmanner.
The most important thing in crisis management is to protect the good
image of the organization through public relations and advertising
campaigns.
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Pl F C i i MPl F C i i M t
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HeadingPlan For Crisis ManagementPlan For Crisis Management
Evaluation and
Diagnostic Actions
Communication
Actions
Strategic
Actions
Crisis
Management
Technical andStructural Actions
Psychological andCultural Actions
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O i ti l D i i M ki ( t )O i ti l D i i M ki ( t )
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HeadingOrganizational Decision Making (cont.)Organizational Decision Making (cont.)
Emergent strategies the strategy that evolves from all the activities engaged in by
people throughout the organization
result from dynamic processes in which people engage in
discovery, implement decisions, and reconsider the initial
decision after discovering new things by chance
emergent strategies may start at any organizational level
emergent strategies are generally the result of constructiveprocesses
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E t St t iE t St t i
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Heading
Choice Set objectives
Generate options
Evaluate and selectacceptable, feasible,
suitable option
Discovery Systematic gathering
and analysis of
the facts Monitoring
outcomes of
actions
Action Implementing
chosen option Correcting
deviations fromfrom plan
Emergent StrategiesEmergent Strategies