Management FuturesManagement FuturesU09068U09068

Unit Overview and Examination Unit Overview and Examination GuidanceGuidance

Zoë DannZoë Dann

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What’s on the menu today?What’s on the menu today?

1.1. What have we learned?What have we learned?- Let’s have a look at the learning outcomes- Let’s have a look at the learning outcomes- Let’s have a look at our learning- Let’s have a look at our learning

2.2. What do we need to know?What do we need to know?- questions and marking- questions and marking- revisit critical thinking- revisit critical thinking

3.3. Any Questions?Any Questions?4.4. Feedback…for a fewFeedback…for a few

Unit learning outcomesUnit learning outcomes1 Identify a range of 1 Identify a range of contemporary issues contemporary issues

shaping management theory and practice. shaping management theory and practice. 2 Demonstrate 2 Demonstrate knowledge and critically analyse knowledge and critically analyse

the evidence and argument the evidence and argument available to available to support or challenge the claimed impact of support or challenge the claimed impact of such issues. such issues.

3 Engage constructively in 3 Engage constructively in group activities group activities to to generate and evaluate knowledge of future generate and evaluate knowledge of future management trends and developments. management trends and developments.

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Lecture schedule• Introduction• Trends and patterns• Opportunity recognition and evaluation• Scenarios• Trends and the Work Place• Our Demographic Future• Our Economic Future• Socio-technical change• Environmental Future

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Exam structureExam structure• Two questions - 50% eachTwo questions - 50% each

– Part APart A = Q1 = Q1• Compulsory Compulsory • Closed bookClosed book• Based on material delivered in weeks 1-5Based on material delivered in weeks 1-5• Suggested reading – ‘Future Savvy’, Pillkhan and additional Suggested reading – ‘Future Savvy’, Pillkhan and additional

reading on Victoryreading on Victory– Part B Part B = Q2, Q3, Q4, Q5= Q2, Q3, Q4, Q5

• Answer 1 from 4Answer 1 from 4• Open book – can take a small portfolioOpen book – can take a small portfolio• Critically discuss views of the futureCritically discuss views of the future• Justify and evaluate an opportunity arising out of your Justify and evaluate an opportunity arising out of your

discussiondiscussion

Period of future view

Short Term Ultra-longShort - Mid Term

0 -1 years

Long - Mid Term

1 - 3 years 3-10 years 25 -10,000 years

e.g. Sales, budgets,financial indicators

e.g. Strategic changes Philosophical forSocial commentary

Gordon 2008 pp20 -21

e.g. Operational planning

Extrapolating trends

1010Graph: Different predictions of global surface temperature

Source: New Scientist, , 2007

Classifying trends: Impact v speed of change

Methods: Frequency of use

(Dossier, 2000)

Techniques

So what have we learned?• Futures Thinking and Techniques

– Neglect and need for Future Studies– Processes, techniques that are used and when

they are appropriate e.g. Forecasting, trend extrapolation, scenarios, theories, horizon scanning, Delphi technique

– Critical thinking with regard to qualitative and quantitative data ie. opinions and statistics

– Response Opportunity Recognition and Evaluation

Key knowledge areas• Demography

– Demographic Transition Theory• Economy

– Economic Growth, Delphi Technique• Workplace

– Diversity in the workplace, Demographic changes and Influence of Technology

• Technology – Moores Law, Convergence, Singularity, Kondratiev wave

• Environment– Hubberts Peak, Climate change

LogisticsLogistics

• When?When?– 26/05/2010 26/05/2010 18:15 - 20:15

• Where?Where?– Room 1 and 2Room 1 and 2

• How long?How long?– 2 hours2 hours

Exam structureExam structure• Two questions - 50% eachTwo questions - 50% each

– Part APart A = Q1 = Q1• Compulsory Compulsory • Closed bookClosed book• Based on material delivered in weeks 1-5Based on material delivered in weeks 1-5• Suggested reading – ‘Future Savvy’, Pillkhan and additional Suggested reading – ‘Future Savvy’, Pillkhan and additional

reading on Victoryreading on Victory– Part B Part B = Q2, Q3, Q4, Q5= Q2, Q3, Q4, Q5

• Answer 1 from 4Answer 1 from 4• Open book – can take a small portfolioOpen book – can take a small portfolio• Critically discuss views of the futureCritically discuss views of the future• Justify and evaluate an opportunity arising out of your Justify and evaluate an opportunity arising out of your

discussiondiscussion

Portfolio - Instructions• No more than one side A4• Must include Student ID number• Should not be used to answer question 1• Font size no smaller than 10 point Times New Roman• May contain

– Statistical data e.g. market or trends– Verbatim quotations

• Full referencing neededE.g. Gordon, A. (2008), ‘Future Savvy’, American Management

Association, New York, Introduction and Chapter 1, pp 3-37 • Cite references in your answer

Portfolio of Evidence• Verbatim quotation e.g.

– "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.” Source: Guardian 11 April, 2010

• Statistical Data

Source: Death rate, ONS, 2006

Portfolio of Evidence• Competitive Data

– “The world's biggest ecological cleaning product company, the Belgian Ecover, came in for some of the heaviest criticism. Of its lavatory cleaner and laundry tablets, Which? said: "Some claims are greenwash". Its panel "found no convincing evidence" to show that the cleaner had a different impact on aquatic life once it

had been through a waste treatment plant.”Source : ‘Why ecofriendly products are not as green as they appear to be – Independent’, April 2010

Source: Biofuels 2010: Spotting the Next Wave, 2009

Poor v Good for Level 3Poor v Good for Level 3

• DescriptiveDescriptive• Unchallenging thoughtUnchallenging thought• Unstructured analysisUnstructured analysis• Makes assertions i.e. Makes assertions i.e.

Unsupported statementsUnsupported statements• Limited breadth of research Limited breadth of research

e.g. single sided argumente.g. single sided argument• Conclusions unrelated to Conclusions unrelated to

discussion or no conclusion at discussion or no conclusion at allall

• CriticalCritical– Questions validity of data, use of theoryQuestions validity of data, use of theory

• Original thoughtOriginal thought• Uses appropriate frameworks for Uses appropriate frameworks for

analysisanalysis• Applies relevant theoryApplies relevant theory• Uses a range of supporting Uses a range of supporting

evidence, data and examplesevidence, data and examples• Discusses opposing views in the Discusses opposing views in the

literatureliterature• Demonstrates the limits of Demonstrates the limits of

knowledge e.g. gaps in the literatureknowledge e.g. gaps in the literature• Sound conclusions and/or Sound conclusions and/or

recommendationsrecommendations

Being criticalBeing criticalYou will need to QUESTION opinion, data, You will need to QUESTION opinion, data, analysis methods and outcomes:analysis methods and outcomes:

• Some examples of how you can be critical. Some examples of how you can be critical. Answer:Answer:– How valid is your data? How valid is your data? – How plausable is the future view that is presented?How plausable is the future view that is presented?– How does this uncertainty affect your decision?How does this uncertainty affect your decision?– How effective is your opportunity or your response?How effective is your opportunity or your response?

So….

• What have you learned?– More knowledgeable on global issues?– More sceptical about opinions and statistics?– More creative in your thoughts about responses

and opportunities?– More confident in justifying and evaluating

change?

• Try the questionnaire in the yellow handbook

Final Workshops and PreparationFinal Workshops and Preparation

• Examination workshopExamination workshop– LT1 Tuesday 11LT1 Tuesday 11thth May 2009 May 2009– 16.00 -17.0016.00 -17.00

– This will be a question and answer session based This will be a question and answer session based on resolving some of your concerns you may have on resolving some of your concerns you may have with exam.with exam.

FeedbackFeedback

Please tell us if you have enjoyed this unit – Please tell us if you have enjoyed this unit – what would you like more of?what would you like more of?

Please tell us what we can improve on it you Please tell us what we can improve on it you haven’t.haven’t.

BEST of LUCK with yourBEST of LUCK with yourFUTURE!!FUTURE!!