maharashtra grain based foods supply chain infrastructure initiative 3

25
August 20, 2010 NATIONAL GRAIN BASED FOODS SUPPLY CHAIN INFRASTRUCTURE INITIATIVE A WHITE PAPER ON THE PROSPECTIVE VALUE OF EMPLOYING STATE-OF-THE-ART SUPPLY CHAIN APPROACHES TO IMPROVE THE EFFICACY OF MAHARASHTRA INDIAN WHEAT AND RICE GRAIN CONSUMPTION HANDLING

Upload: roger-cunningham

Post on 23-Feb-2017

28 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

August 20, 2010

NATIONAL GRAIN BASED FOODS SUPPLY CHAIN INFRASTRUCTURE INITIATIVE

A WHITE PAPER ON THE PROSPECTIVE VALUE OF EMPLOYING STATE-OF-THE-ART SUPPLY CHAIN APPROACHES TO IMPROVE THE EFFICACY OF MAHARASHTRA INDIAN WHEAT AND RICE GRAIN CONSUMPTION HANDLING

Page 2: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

CONTENT

INFRASTRUCTURE CURRENT CHALLENGE

CONSUMPTION ANDPRODUCTION SUMMARIES

FOOD CHAIN PROCESS FLOW OPPORTUNITY COMPARISON

MECHANIZATION ANDPROCESS / ENVIRONMENT OPPORTUNITIES

CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT AND MARKET OPPORTUNITY

RESOURCE UTILIZATION AND INTEGRATION PHASING ROADMAP

REFERENCES AND RESOURCES

2

6

10

12

18

21

23

Page 3: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

INFRASTRUCTURE CURRENT CHALLENGE

Page 4: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

With a production demand growing ten times in past fifteen years, India today has been able to meet that demand historically; indeed standing as the second largest wheat producer, as well as second largest rice producer, in the world. Various studies and research efforts have shown that wheat/rice and wheat/rice flour play an increasingly important role in the management of India’s food economy. In recent years however, this capacity match has been shaken by increasing infrastructure shortfalls as well as population growth and changes in consumption habits.

Wheat and Rice production currently paces about 150 million tonnes per year in India and counts for approximately 13 per cent of the world’s production. Being the second largest in population, it is also the second largest in wheat consumption after China, with a huge and growing wheat demand.

Depending on the population and income growth, poverty alleviation and the rate of urbanization, a demand-supply gap may open at a rate of about 1 to 2 per cent per year which is equivalent to 0.7 to 1.4 million metric tonnes of wheat, growing larger over the coming years. Promoting rapid economic development and income growth in India which embraces the poor and particularly the rural poor, may lead to considerable growth in demand for all grain stocks and thus an expansion in trade opportunities. McKinsey Global Institute predicts:

4

General Infrastructure Current Challenge

Page 5: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

5

General Infrastructure Current Challenge

Kanpur, July 29 2010 (ANI): Hundreds of tonnes of wheat procured by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) have been left to rot due to official apathy and lack of storage space at Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh.

Wheat loaded in thousands of gunny bags is kept in the open on the platform and near the sidings in the goods yard of local railway station.

The blame game has begun between the local administration and the FCI to accept responsibility for the decomposition of wheat in huge quantities.

"The FCI is an agency of the government which looks after storage and procurement but the problem is that these people have not done the procurement in the right manner. They ask the state government as per their requirement. Their main problem is storage; they don't keep the wheat bags properly and throw away the rotten wheat. We have just learnt that they are throwing away wheat. So we are investigating if they have spoiled our (state) share of wheat," said Mukesh Kumar Meshram, District Magistrate, Kanpur.

Bags of rotten wheat are being tossed in bushes, spreading a strong stench in the neighborhood. Residents are angry at the wastage of wheat at a time when the commoner is already trying to make both ends meet due to high inflationary trends.

"As I was crossing the storehouses of the FCI, I saw wheat rotting in its drains. The government should take care of the wheat as it belongs to the public. The wheat, which is being sold at the control (ration) of seven kilograms should be increased and given away at 15-20 kilograms. People are dying due to hunger here and wheat is rotting in the country," said Rakesh Singh, a local resident of Kanpur.

- - By Mahendra Mishra (ANI)

Recent headlines have made manifest the conditions which arise when an infrastructure has been outstripped of its ability to meet the demand placed upon it. Belied by the arising capacity shortfall, we will contend within this report, resides the enormous opportunity with regard to quality of life, economic return, and counter-inflationary benefit of returning perished grain stocks into patterns of consumable benefit by Indian Citizenry. We will propose to do this, via an optimal combination of state of the industry product flow practices as well as grain handling technologies. Our White Paper follows.

Page 6: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

6

Maharashtra Specific Infrastructure Current Challenge

2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2030 2030 FactorIndian Population (000) 1,173,100 1,189,242 1,205,606 1,256,061 1,344,889 1,541,836 1.314 Maharashtra Population (000) 96,750 99,072 101,450 108,931 117,349 136,189 1.408 Maharashtra Urban Population (000) 56,115 57,462 58,841 63,180 68,063 78,990 1.408 Current Demand per Capita (kg/yr) 16,737,750,000 17,139,456,000 17,550,802,944 18,845,031,166 20,301,450,628 23,560,662,261 1.408 China Level Demand per Capita (kg/yr) 66,951,000,000 68,557,824,000 70,203,211,776 75,380,124,663 81,205,802,510 94,242,649,042 1.408 Estimated Actual Demand per Cap (kg/yr) 17,239,882,500 19,196,190,720 21,236,471,562 27,890,646,125 39,181,799,711 66,676,674,197 3.868

Demand in Metric Tonnes 17,239,883 19,196,191 21,236,472 27,890,646 39,181,800 66,676,674 3.868 Current Capacity in Metric Tonnes 7,592,000 7,592,000 7,592,000 7,592,000 7,592,000 7,592,000 1.000

India Maharashtra Population and Grains Demand Growth

2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2030 2030 FactorAnnual Turns (unbounded) 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.7 5.2 8.8 Months of Hold 5.3 4.7 4.3 3.3 2.3 1.4

Total Grains Source Based Stores (months) 7 7 7 7 4 3 0.429 Total Grains Forward Stores (weeks) 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 1.000

Total Grain Storage Required 7,592,000 7,592,000 8,494,589 11,156,258 15,672,720 26,670,670 3.513 TOTAL SHORTFALL (Metric Tonnes) - - 902,589 3,564,258 8,080,720 19,078,670

India Maharashtra Grain Capacity Shortfall

The remainder of this White Paper will focus specifically on how these influences will affect that state’s production and consumption. When projecting Maharashtra grains consumption herein, a blended rate of current Indian and current Chinese consumption patterns were used, which aggregated to an overall growth factor below:

Growth Factor

3.9 x

through 2030

Maharashtra SummaryOverall, these factors 1. Population Growth, 2. Growing Affluence and Income, 3. Changes in Grain Consumption Patters, and 4. Increasing Urbanization will serve to outstrip Maharashtra’s ability to meet its grain demands in the coming years, to the order of:

.9 Million MT Grain Shortfall 2012 19.8 Million MT Grain Shortfall 2030

Page 7: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION SUMMARIES

Page 8: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

Rice Production AreasRough rice production reached 134 million t in 2000 from 112 million T beyond 1990, growing at 1.9% annually. The growth rate has slowed down significantly from 3.4% per year during the following years, mainly from the sluggish performance in the progressive states such as Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Haryana, as many districts in these states are approaching the economically optimum yield with the available technologies.

The rough rice yield has increased from 2.61 t/ha in 1990 to 3.01 t/ha in 2000, an annual growth of 1.4%. In Punjab and Tamil Nadu, where almost the entire rice land is irrigated, yield has reached 5.26 t/ha and 5.38 t/ha (1998), respectively. Yield fluctuates widely in Bihar and Orissa, states that suffer from drought and floods often in the same year, making rice cultivation a highly risky economic activity.

8

Consumption and Production Summaries

Page 9: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

Wheat Production AreasMajor wheat growing states in India are Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Bihar. The primary centers of production for wheat cultivation reside in the North. Wheat has a narrow geographic land base of production as compared to rice. Wheat is a temperate crop requiring low temperatures; while conversely, most of the country is tropical. India is the second largest producer of wheat in the world, averaging an annual production of 65,856 TMT. On average, India consumes 65,283 TMT of wheat, ranking them as the second largest consumer of wheat in the world as well. India does not produce enough wheat to be self-sufficient so, to make up the difference, India imports. On average, India imports 990 TMT of wheat, and, for various reasons, exports an average of 767 TMT of wheat. The ending stocks in India average 9,900 TMT, giving India the third largest ending stocks in the world.

9

Consumption and Production Summaries

Page 10: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

10

Problem Summary

• Demand Outstripping Production• Production Mismatched Process• Production Technologies Behind• Excessive Post Harvest Perishment/Loss Rates• Excessive Financial Losses• Negative Impact to Quality of Life Farmer and Consumer• Excessive Famine Risk Quotient

Consumption and Production Summaries

Therefore, several challenges lay in wait for the future of India and Maharashtra’s grain handling planning, The key of which are:

• Shortfalls in Capacity by 19 mill MT by 2020 • Excessive Post Harvest Losses in the range of 30% or 1+ billion USD• Caps on ability to produce more rice or wheat, when demand cannot be met even now• Vulnerability to Monsoon impacts and droughts• Economically Inflationary infrastructure expense exposure

2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2030 2030 FactorTotal Field Production (turns) 7 7 7 7 4 3 0.429 min = 3Total Post Harvest Losses (Current MT) 7,041,642 7,840,698 8,674,052 11,391,954 16,003,834 27,234,135 29% Loss RateTotal Post Harvest Losses (Projected MT) 4,043,923 4,502,810 4,981,395 6,542,250 9,190,793 15,640,208 19% Loss Rate

TOTAL Post Harvest Loss Avoided (MT) 2,997,719 3,337,887 3,692,657 4,849,704 6,813,041 11,593,927 Total Demand in Rupee Crores 27,744 30,892 34,175 44,884 63,054 107,301 3.868Total Demand in Million US Dollars 5,966 6,643 7,350 9,652 13,560 23,076 TOTAL OPPORTUNITY COST (Annual Rs Cr) 4,824 5,372 5,943 7,805 10,964 18,658 1248 rs per 100kg wheatTOTAL OPPORTUNITY COST (Annual MM $) 1,037 1,155 1,278 1,678 2,358 4,012 1673 rs per 100kg rice

1609 rupees/100kg

India Maharashtra Grain Harvest Loss Impact

Annual Value of Harvest Loss

Page 11: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

FOOD CHAIN PROCESS FLOW OPPORTUNITY COMPARISON

Page 12: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

12

Food Chain Process Flow Opportunity ComparisonCurrently a Produce to Consume, Demand Based supply chain practice is involved with the consumption of both wheat and rice grain stocks within Maharashtra. This ensures clear fields and ample supply at warehouses, provided there are no interruptions or problems with regard to product or its lifespan.

However this version of supply chain management involves several inherent problems, not the least of which is that commodity stocks are committed to uncontrolled warehouses far in advance of demand, in order to clear stocks from the field in time to cycle field resources.

This also places the onus of technology squarely on the shoulders of numerous small warehouses who cannot afford to apply those economics to such small stocks of grain.

In stead, it is the recommendation of this white paper that a study be initiated to examine introduction of Source Based Silage Complexes and a supporting rail network, designed to replace the existing Demand Based Supply Chain.

The Source Based Silage Complexes would be located near to the rice and wheat production corridors in order to take quick possession of precious harvest into the discipline of central silage environments as quickly as possible, post harvest. They prospectively for purposes of this paper, would number 14 through Maharashtra, per below:

7 month shelf lifeShifted from numerousCity Warehouses to fewer quality central silage complexes

Page 13: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

MECHANIZATION ANDPROCESS / ENVIRONMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Page 14: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

14

Mechanization and Process/Environment OpportunitiesThe majority of change involved in the process will be the proposed elimination of produce to consume Supply Chain habits in lieu of establishment of a Source Based Value Chain network that will not hold stocks in bad conditions, nor pre-commit them to the community until 6 weeks from demand. This will allow aggregation of environment control, and technology capital to optimal use.

FIELDS

SOURCE BASED SILAGE

CITY WAREHOUSES

NEW COLLECTION

NEW RAIL DELIVERY

NEW 7 MOS STOCKSNEW TECHNOLOGY• Aeration• Temperature• Handling• FIFO only• Drying/Cleaning• Rail Load-out

REDUCE7 MOS to6 WKS STOCKS

Page 15: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

15

Mechanization and Process/Environment OpportunitiesMechanization would be added to the sourcing process as it supports integration of Post Harvest Stocks into 14 Source Based Grain Collection Complexes located near the fields, targeting a 7 month average hold capacity, which is located near origin and not deployed into poor conditions and risk of un-use at current city warehouses. Grain handling processes would be aided with technology to reduce scatter, spill and shatter losses.

Page 16: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

16

Mechanization and Process/Environment OpportunitiesIt is estimated that 14 Source Based Silage Complexes would need to be developed and deployed at the main grain production points for wheat and rice in Maharashtra. These complexes would be located near FCI and Commercial fields and an upgraded rail network to handle shipping to the 140 City Warehouses. The bulk hold of 7 months of supply would be environmentally cooled, treated and controlled. The centers would be equipped for quick release of stocks to the city warehouses to maintain their 6 weeks of supply average.

Source: R&R #’s 4, 20

Page 17: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

17

Mechanization and Process/Environment OpportunitiesEquivalently, it is estimated that around 140 Forward Staged Demand Warehouses would need to be developed around Maharashtra’s 31 primary demographic centers. These Warehouses would need to switch to First In First Out technologies (aeration hoppers, feeders, etc), and hold around 6 weeks of demand at all times to eliminate much of the spoilage and waste in Post Harvest Loss today.

Page 18: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

18

Mechanization and Process/Environment OpportunitiesThe central principle which drives network benefits revolve around two things:

I. Elimination of 10 percentage points of estimated Post Harvest Loss rates.

II. Expansion of the network to avoid loss in quality of life and avoid immense costs involved in ‘catching up’ when deadlines are imminent in 2 to 3 years.

Metric Tonnes 2015 2020 2030 Assets Required

Note: Comparatively, Pakistan, in our discussions with the Ministry of Agriculture expresses a current Post Harvest Loss rate of 41%, with similar program desires to reduce this impact to the Indian level of 30% over the next three years.

Sources: R&R #’s 4, 6, 7, 25

Gross Grain Harvest 1.0000 1.0000Reaping Shrink (scatter) -0.0025 0.9975 -0.0025 0.9975Harvesting Shrink (scatter) -0.0075 0.9900 -0.0045 0.9930

Grain Processing 0.9900 0.9930Threshing Shrink (shatter) -0.0010 0.9890 -0.0010 0.9920

Shrink (spillage) -0.0025 0.9865 -0.0020 0.9900Winnowing Shrink (shatter) -0.0070 0.9795 -0.0040 0.9860Sifting Shrink (shatter) -0.0070 0.9725 -0.0040 0.9820

Grain Production 0.9725 0.9820Cleaning Shrink (shatter) -0.0020 0.9705 -0.0010 0.9810Drying Shrink (shatter) -0.0020 0.9685 -0.0010 0.9800Handling Shrink (shatter) -0.0025 0.9660 -0.0013 0.9788

Shrink (spillage) -0.0045 0.9615 -0.0023 0.9765Grain Storage 0.9765

Handling Shrink (shatter) -0.0013 0.9753Shrink (spillage) -0.0023 0.9730

Aeration Shrink (shatter) -0.0125 0.9605Time Shrink (shelf time) -0.0200 0.9405 Humid & Temp Shrink (Mold Rot) -0.0100 0.9305 Rodent/Bird 0.9305 Insect (Moth, Mite, Weevil) -0.0100 0.9205 Fungus/Bacterium -0.0175 0.9030

Grain Transportation 0.9615 0.9030Handling Shrink (shatter) -0.0025 0.9590 -0.0013 0.9018

Shrink (spillage) -0.0045 0.9545 -0.0023 0.8995Grain Consumption/Demand Storage 0.9545 0.8995

Handling Shrink (shatter) -0.0025 0.9520 -0.0025 0.8970Shrink (spillage) -0.0045 0.9475 -0.0045 0.8925

Aeration Shrink (shatter) 0.9475 0.8925Time Shrink (shelf time) -0.0600 0.8875 -0.0300 0.8625 Humid & Temp Shrink (Mold Rot) -0.0900 0.7975 -0.0225 0.8400 Rodent/Bird -0.0100 0.7875 -0.0025 0.8375 Insect (Moth, Mite, Weevil) -0.0300 0.7575 -0.0125 0.8250 Fungus/Bacterium -0.0500 0.7075 -0.0175 0.8075

Post Harvest Perishment PHP -29% 0.7075 PHP -19% 0.8075

Demand Based Storage Source Based Storage

Modes of Grain Post Harvest Loss

-29% -19%Post Harvest Loss

Current Proposed

Total MT Central Stores Required 11,156,258 15,672,720 26,670,670 14 Source Based Silage ComplexesTotal MT Forward Stores Required 3,218,151 4,520,977 7,693,462 140 Forward City Warehouses

Loss > $1 Billion Annually

Page 19: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT AND MARKET OPPORTUNITY

Page 20: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

20

Capital Development and Market Opportunity Implementation phasing approaches for the development of operating assets can take many forms; however, for purposes of this program, it was viewed that the payback involved in elimination of as much Post Harvest Loss as possible was first priority from both a quality of life and well as financial recovery perspective.

Given the losses and the capacity shortfalls on the horizon, the first development phasing involves establishment of 8 of the 14 projected Source Based wheat and rice silo complexes, each housing 3,000 Metric Tonnes of grain in 12 different silable containment structures to provide wheat and rice strain differences unique holding vessels.

This initial development will produce the most return for the effort, to be followed by replacement of the City Forward Warehouses, the first 100 of them, in Phase II.

Finally Phase III would entail the expansion of this two tier infrastructure to handle capacity needs through 2030. In the end the infrastructure would entail a count of assets as follows:

• 14 Source Based Silage Complexes • 140 Forward Deployed City Warehouses • Expanded Rail Delivery Network• Inventory Management and Controls• Transportation and Visibility Systems• Export and Channel Margin Mgt Systems• State of the Art Preservation Science

Total MT Central Stores Required 7,592,000 7,592,000 8,494,589 9,345,452 10,232,263 11,156,258 15,672,720 26,670,670 Total MT Forward Stores Required 1,989,217 2,214,945 2,450,362 2,695,803 2,951,614 3,218,151 4,520,977 7,693,462

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2030

Build To Points and Phasing Schedule Metric Tonnes Hold to BuildPhase I - Establish Source Based Operations Build Central Stores Required (2020 MT) 15,672,720 15,672,720 Phase II - Replace Forward Store Infrastructure Replace Forward Stores Required (2020 MT) 4,520,977 4,520,977 Phase III - Increase Source Stores w/Growth Build Central Stores Required (2030 MT) 10,997,950 10,997,950 10,997,950 Build Forward Stores Required (2030 MT) 7,693,462 7,693,462 7,693,462

Implementation Phasing

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2030

Build To Points and Phasing Schedule Silos and Warehouses to BuildPhase I - Establish Source Based Operations Build Source Based Silo Complexes (2020 MT) 8 8 Phase II - Replace Forward Store Infrastructure Replace Forward Stores Required (2020 MT) 100 100 Phase III - Increase Source Stores w/Growth Build Central Stores Required (2030 MT) 6 6 6 Build Forward Stores Required (2030 MT) 40 40 40

Implementation Phasing

Page 21: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

21

Capital Development and Market Opportunity The schedule below depicts a capital phasing totaling 1.7 Billion US Dollars across the implementation horizon. These capital flows are allocated according to timing with demand need and elegant phasing.

The capital outlays are robust, given that the infrastructure requires replacement for new methods and technology as well as expansion for robust demand growth. However, even more robust in comparison are the immediate on ongoing returns in terms of reduction in Post Harvest Losses incurred by the FCI, Commercial Business, and Farms in Maharashtra alone. The initial expenditure pays back in the first year in as little as 7 months. Thereafter the accelerated return, through simply the reduction of Post Harvest loss from 29% to 19% results in annual payback rates of a couple months on each phased capital period.

This reflects an Internal Rate of Return potential in excess of 150% in the first return period, subject to the recommended Strategy Study (See Next Step).

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2030

Build To Points and Phasing Schedule Capital Dollars Phased RequirementPhase I - Establish Source Based Operations Build Central Stores Required (2020 MT) 84,000,000 84,000,000 84,000,000 Railway Infrastructure Improvement 44,000,000 44,000,000 44,000,000 16,000,000 22,000,000 20,000,000 40,000,000 Program Development/Systems 3,750,000 17,000,000 17,000,000 17,000,000 12,000,000 12,000,000 12,000,000 12,000,000 Phase II - Replace Forward Store Infrastructure Replace Forward Stores Required (2020 MT) 100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000 Phase III - Increase Source Stores w/Growth Build Central Stores Required (2030 MT) 31,500,000 52,500,000 105,000,000 Build Forward Stores Required (2030 MT) 10,909,091 54,545,455 545,454,545

TOTAL PHASED CAPEX 3,750,000 145,000,000 245,000,000 245,000,000 128,000,000 76,409,091 139,045,455 702,454,545

Implementation Phasing

One Source Based Silage Complex 31,500,000 Compex Plant Assets 10,000,000 Land and Building Storage Silos (12) 3,500,000 12 Silo's for Grain Variety Augers and Ventillation Site Equippage 18,000,000 Tractors and Conveyance Staging Aeration Drying and Chemical Handling

One City Forward Warehouse 3,000,000 Building 1,200,000 Land and Building Storage Flex Bins 600,000 18 Silo bags for Grain Variety rice (6) and wheat (12) Equippage 1,200,000 Conveyance Staging and Aeration

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2030

Recovery Cash versus Capital Schedule Capital Dollars Phased RequirementCapital Schedule Dollars 3,750,000 145,000,000 245,000,000 245,000,000 128,000,000 76,409,091 139,045,455 702,454,545 Post Harvest Loss Recovery Dollars Annually (no benefit until mid 2012) - - 638,980,579 1,405,968,506 1,539,384,102 1,678,393,809 11,789,345,030 40,124,462,039

Cumulative Recovery Cash FlowsCapital Schedule Dollars 3,750,000 148,750,000 393,750,000 638,750,000 766,750,000 843,159,091 982,204,545 1,684,659,091 Post Harvest Loss Recovery Dollars (no benefit until mid 2012) - - 638,980,579 2,044,949,085 3,584,333,187 5,262,726,995 17,052,072,026 57,176,534,065

Payback Rate Annual months 7.4 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.2

Capital Servicing

Payback periods = 1/2 to 8 months annually

Page 22: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

RESOURCE UTILIZATION AND INTEGRATION PHASING ROADMAP

Page 23: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

23

Resource Utilization and Integration Phasing RoadmapOverall implementation should be phased over the horizon of the entire infrastructure development period. The most intensive periods being the establishment of the Sourced Based Silo network for both rice and wheat harvest collection and 7 month hold. The conceptual plan is divided into three Phases as cited below

I. Phase I – Establish Source Based Silo Operations

II. Phase II – Replace City Warehouses

III. Phase III – Expand Infrastructure for Actual Growth

NEST STEP = Conduct Program Strategy and Business Impact Survey

Phase I Phase II Phase III

Page 24: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

REFERENCES AND RESOURCES

Page 25: Maharashtra Grain Based Foods Supply Chain Infrastructure Initiative 3

25

References and Resources1. Silo Capacity Standards, Chore-Time Brock International Capacity Brochure, A Division of CTB,

Inc. 2010.

2. Report: Stock of Food grain in Central Pool as on 31.05.2010, Food Corporation of India, 2010.

3. Report: Month-wise stock position vis-a-vis Buffer Norms and Strategic Reserve for last ten years (as on 1st of month), Food Corporation of India, July 2010.

4. Wheat Production and Wheat Harvesting, University of Arkansas • Division of Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service, 2010.

5. Wheat Left to Rot in Dark City Warehouses, Sushil Manav, Tribune News Service Fatehabad, July 8 2010.

6. Wheat Harvest Loss Rates, The Administrative Staff College of India (ASCI) Hyderabad 1976.

7. Information Network on Postharvest Operations INPhO Newsletter, Wheatstock Losses Attributable by Malady, February 2007 .

8. International Rice Research Institute: http://www.irri.org/science/cnyinfo/india.asp

9. Agricultural Food Maps, Maps of India; http://www.mapsofindia.com/indiaagriculture/foodcrops.htm.

10. Cargill Grain Handling Equipment Functions, Cargill International, 201011. RFID Facilitates Grain Storage in India, Topics/Verticals: Inventory/Warehouse Management,

Transport, Logistics, Mary Catherine O'Connor; Apr. 19, 2010.

12. Material Handling and Storage of Wheat, Schmidt Seeger, 2010 Publication Brochure.

13. Future Requirements in Grain Storage, Spear Logistics, June 5, 2010.

14. MSWC Tariff Schedule 2010, Maharashtra State Warehousing Corporation.15. Indian Grain and CWC Warehouse Capacities 2010, Maharashtra State Warehousing

Corporation.

16. Statewide Storage Capacities of Major Grain Holds, Food Corporation of India, 2010

17. Martell Crop Projections 90 Precipitation Analysis, thru February 8, 2010.18. GAIN Report Number: IN1036, 4/30/2010; India Grain and Feed Update, May 2010, By: A.

Govindan

19. Report on Warehouse and Storage Industry, Shailendra Singh Rathore, INSTITUTE OF AGRI BUSINESS MANAGEMENT RAJASTHAN AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY 334001.

20. The Cost of Storing Grain, Losses and Rates, Iowa State University, Ag Resource Center, File A2-33 November 2009 www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm.

21. India’s Urban Awakening: Building Inclusive Cities and Sustaining Economic Growth, McKinsey & Company,: McKinsey Global Institute, April 2010.

22. Mission of the Food Corporation of India, Food Corporation of India, 2009.23. Grain Storage in Theory and History, by Nicholas Poynder

24. Future Requirements in Grain Storage, Panchshil Group, June 5, 2010.

25. One Inida, Tonnes of wheat left to rot in Kanpur, Mahendra Mishra (ANI), July 29 2010.

26. Central Intelligence Agency, United States, World Factbook, India August 2010 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html.