macrovoicesjanuary 7, 2021 · 2021. 1. 7. · labyrinth consulting services, inc. artberman.com...
TRANSCRIPT
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Slide 1Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
MacroVoices January 7, 2021
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Slide 2Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
-0.21 -0.08
-1.60
0.00
-1.02 -1.26
-0.32
0.12
1.190.79
7.47
8.93
0.41
1.38 1.31
100.79
92.71
82.57
91.16
93.47 93.97
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
-5
0
5
10
15
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
E
1Q21
E
2Q21
E
3Q21
E
4Q21
E
WorldLiquidsSupplyandDe
mand(m
mb/d)
WorldLiquidsSupply-De
mandBalance(m
mb/d)
Source:OPEC,EIA&LabyrinthConsulting Services,Inc. OPEC/MarketIndicators/OPECSupplyDemandMaster
OPEC-EIA*expectsa-0.32mmb/dworldsupply-demanddeficitin1Q2021butasurplusfortherestof2021reachingamaximumof+1.38mmb/din3Q2021
NegativeBalance(LHS)
Supply(RHS)
PositiveBalance(LHS)
*OPECdoesnotforecastliquids supplybeyondthepresentquarter.Thisforecastusesatransformfor2020-21EIAtoOPECsupply.
2Q2020
1Q2021
mmb/d 3Q2020 4Q2020 2H2020 1Q2021 2Q2021 IH2021 3Q2021 4Q2021 2H20212021 SUPPLY 90.14 92.21 91.18 93.65 96.08 94.87 97.94 98.60 98.27
DEMAND 91.16 93.47 92.31 93.97 95.68 94.82 96.57 97.29 96.93S-DBALANCE -1.02 -1.26 -1.14 -0.32 0.41 0.05 1.38 1.31 1.35
3Q2021
Saudi Arabia’s solo production cut probably is because their demand forecast for 2021 has decreased from this December estimate
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Slide 3Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
WTI is correctly priced at $47 spot priceIt is almost $4 over-priced at $50.80 futures price
$0$2$4$6$8
$10$12$14$16$18$20$22$24$26$28$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48$50$52$54$56$58$60$62$64$66$68$70$72$74$76$78$80$82$84$86$88$90$92$94$96$98$100$102$104$106$108$110$112$114$116$118$120
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250
U.S.Crude +productscomparative Inventory (C.I.)mmb Source:EIA
,HSN
O&LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.-Aperio
EnergyResearch
Mar-June 2015FalseOptimism
WTIPrice($/barrel)
Dec '16- Apr '17Production-CutOptimism
WTIspotiscorrectlypricedatweeklyavgpriceof$48.02weekendingJanuary1Futurespriceof$50.42isabout$2.50over-priced
EIACurrent/W
eeklyUpdates/Crude
Oil&RefinedProductsInventories&CI
2013-14Optimism
Jan1$47.48.0
1
C.I. WTI1/1/21 30.11 $48.0212/25/20 37.99 $47.73Change -7.87 $0.29
Late2016Pessimism
35%excursionMar-July2020
PriceDiscoveryExcursion
Apr24 $3.32
Apr-Oct2018IranSanctionOptimism
$48.00
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Slide 4Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
WTI comparative inventory should reach the 5-year average during Q1 2021Decline since mid-July resumed in mid-December after a 3-week increase
148 148
33
59
3830
$61.62
$53.14
$48.36
$24.41
$3.32
$40.57
$48.02
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$901/3/20
1/10/20
1/17/20
1/24/20
1/31/20
2/7/20
2/14/20
2/21/20
2/28/20
3/6/20
3/13/20
3/20/20
3/27/20
4/3/20
4/10/20
4/17/20
4/24/20
5/1/20
5/8/20
5/15/20
5/22/20
5/29/20
6/5/20
6/12/20
6/19/20
6/26/20
7/3/20
7/10/20
7/17/20
7/24/20
7/31/20
8/7/20
8/14/20
8/21/20
8/28/20
9/4/20
9/11/20
9/18/20
9/25/20
10/2/20
10/9/20
10/16/20
10/23/20
10/30/20
11/6/20
11/13/20
11/20/20
11/27/20
12/4/20
12/11/20
12/18/20
12/25/20
1/1/21
1/8/21
Crude+RefinedProductCom
parativeInvneory(m
mb)
WTIPrice($/barrel)
Source:EIA&LabyrinthConsulting Services,Inc. EIACurrent/WeeklyUpdates/Crude Oil&Refined Products Inventories&CI
Oil Over-SupplyPositive C.I.
WTI(LHS)
ComparativeInventorydecreasedforthirdweekin-a-row6weeksforC.I.toreach5-yearaverageat-4.9mmb/weekmeandeclinerate
OPEC+Failure
OPEC+Cuts
mmb DECREASE PCT WEEKS AVG/WK WKS TO 5 YA
SINCE JUL 17 -118 -80% 24 -4.92 -6
Jul 17
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Slide 5Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
4.13.6
8.6
20.3
1.9 1.6
0.3
4.3
3.8
7.9
19.1
1.61.2
0.2
3.43.0
5.3
14.5
0.7 0.70.1
138% 134%
79% 78% 72%
57%
29%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OtherOils Diesel Gasoline ProductSupplied Propane KeroseneJet Residual
PercentRecovery
CurrentWeekConsumption,5-YearAverageand2020M
inium(mmb/d)
ChartTitle
5-YRAVG
CURRENT
2020MIN
PCTRECOVERY
Source:EIA &LabyrinthConsulting Services,Inc. EIACurrent/WeeklyUpdates/Product SuppliedWeekly
U.S.refinedproductconsumptionrecoveryrosefrom73%to79%
Dieselandotheroilshaverecoveredtomorethantheir5-yearaverages
Gasoline,residual,propane,jetfuel&residualremainlessthantheir5-yearaverages
kb/d Other Oils Diesel Gasoline Product Supplied Propane Kerosene Jet Residual12/25/20 4,338 3,790 7,931 19,069 1,602 1,218 190
PCT RECOVERY 138% 134% 79% 78% 72% 57% 29%12/18/20 4,264 3,838 7,892 18,856 1,416 1,197 249
PCT RECOVERY 183% 93% 67% 78% 58% 53% 72%
U.S. consumption recovery reached a maximum of 84% in Novemberbut has been lower since then
Gasoline recovery is the main obstacle
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Slide 6Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
• My earlier “thought experiment” forecast for lower U.S. production in late 2020 was wrong.• It was wrong because more shut-in wells were reactivated than I expected.• It was wrong because it was based on tight oil decline extrapolated to all U.S. production.• The model was too closely tied to the rig count decline curve.• Current forecast used all wells from the 4 states + Gulf of Mexico that account for 80% of U.S.
production.• It was carefully calibrated with production decline, number of producing wells, rig count and
DUCs.• Output decline has begun but more serious decline begins in late Q1 early Q2 2021.• Three cases suggest minimum rates of 7.8 to 9.9 mmb/d by Q3 2021.
U.S. production forecast update
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Slide 7Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
7.52 7.44
5.87
5.78
4.183.97
-1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-1
7
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-1
8
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-1
9
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-20
Nov-20
12-M
onthLaggedTightO
ilProduction(m
mb/d)
ChartTitle
LAGGEDPROD USLAGGEDPROD
Octobertightoilrigcountis157,35%of450rigsneededtomaintain5.5mmb/dtightoil/11mmb/dtotalU.S.output
Tightoiloutputmaydeclineto3.5mmb/d&U.S.to6.5mmb/dinQ32021
Source: BakerHughes,EIADPR,Enverus&Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc. RigCount/Rig CountCurrent/MONTHLY SHALEGAS-TIGHTOILRIG
LaggedTightOilProduction
(LHS)
LaggedU.S.Production(RHS)
Feb2021Prod
Aug 2021Prod
MayProd
Oct RC
Shut-inwells
Wellre-activation
AThoughtExperiment2021 TightOil U.S. EIAJan 5,841 11,117 11,096Feb 5,783 11,051 11,008Mar 5,494 9,587 10,960Apr 5,219 9,108 10,930May 4,175 8,197 10,942Jun 3,966 7,377 10,912Jul 3,173 5,902 10,907
Nov2019
May2016
Comparison of earlier tight oil forecast with observed total U.S. output to-date
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Slide 8Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
1,006
846
178234
12.7
10.4
11.4
9.1
9.6
11.4
7.8
8.6
9.9 10.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-1
8
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-1
9
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-2
1
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
U.S.CrudeandCondensateProduction(m
mb/d)
13-m
onthShifte
dU.S.Oil-DirectedRigCount
ChartTitle
CALIBRATEDRIGCOUNT PRODUCTION EIA LOWCASE HIGHCASE
BasecaseisforU.S.productiontofalltoalmost9mmb/din2021Itfallsbelow8mmb/dinthelowcase
Source: BakerHughes,EIA,Enverus&Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc. RigCount/Rig CountCurrent/MONTHLY SHALEGAS-TIGHTOILRIG
Production(RHS)
13-monthshiftedoilrigcount(LHS)
Mar2021
EIA
Oct2020914
Nov2020rigcount
Low
HighBase
Sep2021
Updated forecast suggests production minimum by late 3Q 2021
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Slide 9Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
9.66
8.53
12.86 12.74
10.02
10.42
11.18
10.96
11.36
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
CrudeOilandLeaseCondensateProduction(m
mb/d)
Source:EIA914 &Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc. EIACurrent/Monthly Updates/914U.S._crude_oil_production_2010-2020
U.S.oilproductionhasfallen-2.3mmb/d(-18%)from12.7mmb/d inMarch2020to10.4mmb/dinOctober 2020
EIAexpectsproductiontoaverage11.1mmb/din2021
Crude +CondensateProduction
Nov2019
Mar2020
May
Apr2015
Dec 2021
Sep2016
-1.1 mmb/d-11.6%
Oct
-2.3 mmb/d-18%
October production was -2.3 mmb/d less than March output of 12.74 mmb/dLatest EIA 914 data remains below STEO forecasts
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Slide 10Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
Gulf of Mexico (-1 mmb/d) & Texas (-0.8 mmb/d) have fallen mostRest of U.S. has fallen -0.4 mmb/d, ND -0.3 mmb/d & OK -0.2 mmb/d
12,860 12,737
10,019
10,86110,419
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
U.S.CrudeOilandCondensateProduction(kb/d)
IncrememtalCrude+CondensateProduction(kb/d)
ChartTitle
Oklahoma NewMexico NorthDakota FederalOffshoreGulfofMexico RestofUS Texas TOTALUSPROD
2019-2020kb/d MIN Oct-20 MAX OCTVSMIN PCT OCTVSMAX PCTTexas 4,403 4,634 5,437 231 5% -803 -15%FederalOffshoreGulfofMexico 1,057 1,057 2,045 0 0% -988 -48%NorthDakota 864 1,218 1,519 354 41% -301 -20%NewMexico 808 1,081 1,111 273 34% -30 -3%Oklahoma 359 421 613 62 17% -192 -31%RestofUS 1,891 2,008 2,444 117 6% -436 -18%U.S.Total 10,019 10,419 12,860 400 4% -2,441 -19%
Source:EIA914 &Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc. EIACurrent/Monthly Updates/914U.S._crude_oil_production_2010-2020
U.S.oilproductionis-2.44mmb/d(-19%)lessthan2019-2020maximum12.86 mmb/dOffshoreGulfofMexico(-48%)&Oklahoma(-31%)havefallenthemost
NewMexico(-3%)andTexas(-15%)havefallentheleast
Texas
Rest ofU.S.
Gulf ofMexico
NorthDakotaNewMexicoOklahoma
Incrementalkbo/d
TotalU.S.Production(RHS)
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Slide 11Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-1
7
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-1
8
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-1
9
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-20
Nov-20
OilProduction
(mmb/d)
ChartTitle
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Jun2019
6months
8months 6months
7months
6-8monthsfromfirstoiltooffsetofdeclininglegacyproductionDatafromallTexas,NorthDakota,NewMexico,Oklahoma&GulfofMexicowells
80%ofallU.S.oilproduction
Source: Enverus&Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc. RigCount/Rig Count Current/TX-OCS-ND-OK-NM OIL2000-2020_DECLINENOV2020
6months
8months
Total U.S. decline rate is 43% annuallyWell start to first oil is 140 days (~ 4.5 months)
First oil to legacy decline offset is another 215 days ( ~7 months)
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Slide 12Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
6.95
6.28
10.45
7.92
8.40
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-1
7
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-1
8
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-1
9
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-20
U.S.CrudeOil+CondensateProduction(m
mb/d)
ChartTitle
PriorYears 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019
2020 TOTAL
2020U.S.oilproduction*declinesat43%peryear
Ifnonewwellsweredrilled,totalU.S.productionwouldfall- 4.25mmb/dinoneyear
SourceEnverus&LabyrinthConsulting Services,Inc. RigCount/Rig Count Current/FO-ND-NM-OK-TXMergedVintagedCUM1980-2020
*dataincludesallwellsinFOGOM,ND,NM,OK,&Texaswhichaccountfor~80%ofU.S.output
5.71
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-0
8
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-0
9
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-1
0
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-1
1
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-1
2
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-1
3
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-1
4
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-1
5
Oct-15
OilProduction
(mmb/d)
ChartTitle
PriorYears 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013
2014
Source: BakerHughes,EIA,Enverus&Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc. RigCount/Rig CountCurrent/MONTHLY SHALEGAS-TIGHTOILRIG
In2014,U.S.oilproduction*declinedat22%peryearIfnonewwellsweredrilled,productionwouldfallabout0.9mmb/dinoneyear
*dataincludes allwellsinFOGOM,ND,NM,OK,&Texaswhich accountfor~80%ofU.S.output
U.S. decline rate has increased from 22% in 2014 to 43% in 2019Production would fall ~4.25 mmb/d today if no wells were drilled
vs about 1 mmb/d in 2014
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Slide 13Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
1830
334
1,009
846
181
260
9.66
8.53
10.07
12.86
12.74
10.0210.60
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-1
4
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-1
5
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-1
6
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-1
7
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-1
8
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-1
9
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-2
0
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-2
1
Oct-21
Jan-22
U.S.Crude+CondensateProduction(m
mb/d)
Time-ShiftedOil-DirectedRigCount
2014-2021OilRCvsProduction
CALRC PROD
Annualdeclineratehasincreasedfrom22%to43%and-1.0to-4.3mmb/dbetween2015and2020productionandrigcountcollapses
Source: BakerHughes,EIA,Enverus&Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc. RigCount/Rig CountCurrent/MONTHLY SHALEGAS-TIGHTOILRIG
Production(RHS)
Time-shiftedrigcount(LHS)
2015rigcountcollapse Mar2021
Aug2021
Technology Change
Mar2019
Apr2015Sep2016
Feb2015
May2020
Nov2019
Nov2017
Mar2020
2020rigcountcollapse
Jan2022
Nov2020
Rig count has been a reasonable guide to production since mid-2016when properly time-shifted to account for start-drilling to decline offset
-
Slide 14Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
297,041288,221 294,027
259,952
6.96.3
10.5
8.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-25,000
25,000
75,000
125,000
175,000
225,000
275,000
325,000
375,000
425,000
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-1
7Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-1
8Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-1
9Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-2
0Sep-20
Nov-20
CrudeOil+
CondensateProduction(m
mb/d)
NumberofProducin
gWells
ChartTitle
PriorYears 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NumberofactiveU.S.wellshasfallenbymorethan34,000(-12%)sinceAugust2019Activewellsonlyfellby8,800(-3%)fromApril2015toMarch2016
duringthelastpricecollapse
SourceEnverus&LabyrinthConsulting Services,Inc. RigCount/Rig Count Current/FO-ND-NM-OK-TXMergedVintagedCUM1980-2020
*dataincludesallwellsinFOGOM,ND,NM,OK,&Texaswhichaccountfor~80%ofU.S.output
Apr2015 Mar2016 Aug2019
Sep2020
Production(RHS)
Number of active wells has fallen more in 2020 than at any other time
-
Slide 15Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
2,2992,423
2,340
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-700
-200
300
800
1,300
1,800
2,300
2,800
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-1
7
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-1
8
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-1
9
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-20
Nov-20
Increm
etalDrilledUn
completedW
ellsSinceDe
cember2
015
ChartTitle
Eagle Ford Niobrara Bakken Permian TIGHTOILPROD
Niobrara
EagleFord
Permian
Bakken
LittleevidencethatdecliningDUCsareaffecting2020tightoilproduction
Source: EIA&LabyrinthConsulting Services,Inc EIA Current/ DUC-DPR/ duc-data_MASTER
*Incrementaldrilleduncompletedwellssince
December2015
-187% -1645%Bakken EagleFord Niobrara Permian
Dec-15 862 1364 868 1176Nov-20 806 1031 456 3516Change -56 -333 -412 2340
SinceDec2019 -32 -113 -121 117
Aug2019
Jan2017
Jul2020
Tight OilProduction(RHS)
Drilled uncompleted wells are not a greater factor now than during past 5 yearsTheir distribution has shifted more to the Permian basin than before
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Slide 16Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com
1,006
846
178234
12.7
10.4
11.4
9.1
9.6
11.4
7.8
8.6
9.9 10.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-1
8
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-1
9
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-2
1
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
U.S.CrudeandCondensateProduction(m
mb/d)
13-m
onthShifte
dU.S.Oil-DirectedRigCount
ChartTitle
CALIBRATEDRIGCOUNT PRODUCTION EIA LOWCASE HIGHCASE
BasecaseisforU.S.productiontofalltoalmost9mmb/din2021Itfallsbelow8mmb/dinthelowcase
Source: BakerHughes,EIA,Enverus&Labyrinth Consulting Services,Inc. RigCount/Rig CountCurrent/MONTHLY SHALEGAS-TIGHTOILRIG
Production(RHS)
13-monthshiftedoilrigcount(LHS)
Mar2021
EIA
Oct2020914
Nov2020rigcount
Low
HighBase
Sep2021
With all that it mind…The forecast is probably optimistic