macro synopsis by anric blatt
DESCRIPTION
Food, water, energy and metals are the drivers of industrial, economic and social growth. As the world's popula;on rises and the clamor for higher living standards gets louder, so too the struggle for resource access intensifies. This concise look at the world's most imminent crisis could also turn into one of the most compelling investment themes. Presentation uploaded by Anric BlattTRANSCRIPT
Unique, Rare & Time Sensitive
CRISISANDOPPORTUNITY
GLOBAL FUND EXCHANGEHOLDINGS LLC
1Wednesday, August 29, 12
Food,%water,%energy%and%metals%are%the%drivers%of%industrial,%economic%and%social%growth.%As%the%world's%popula;on%rises%and%the%clamor%for%higher%living%standards%gets%louder,%so%too%the%struggle%for%resource%access%intensifies.%
For%centuries,%the%West%has%controlled%much%of%the%resources%flow,%but%now%China,%India,%Russia,%Brazil,%Indonesia,%Turkey,%the%Middle%East%and%a%host%of%other%na;ons%want%their%share.%
whether%it%is%water%from%the%Nile,%Colorado%or%the%YarlungKZangboKBrahmaputra;%rice%from%the%Mekong%Delta,%oil%from%the%Middle%East,%coal%from%Africa,%gas%from%Russia,%rare%earths%from%China,%iron%ore%from%the%Australian%outback,%phosphates%from%Moroccouranium%from%Namibia%and%Kazakhstan,%or%shale%from%North%America,%
these%resources%are%in%limited%supply%and%valuable.
The%world's%geopoli;cs%will%be%shaped%by%the%global%race%for%four%strategic%resources:%food,%water,%energy%and%metals.%
The%simultaneous%development%and%rising%aspira;ons%of%the%world's%mul;%billionKplus%inhabitants%has%awoken%us%to%the%limits%of%the%earth.%The%scale%of%demand%from%China,%La;n%America%and%India%for%food,%water,%energy%and%minerals,%has%already%reshaped%the%global%economy.%Africa,%too,%is%about%to%wake%up%demographically%in%a%way%that%will%surprise%the%world.
This%crisis%for%mankind%and%our%planet%is%simultaneously%our%greatest%challenge%going%forward,%as%well%as%a%once%in%a%life;me%investment%opportunity%for%visionary%investors.
The%;ming%is%ideal,%the%opportunity%is%evident%and%Global%Fund%Exchange%is%the%right%partner2
Executive Summary
2Wednesday, August 29, 12
The Macro Opportunity
Contents
1234
The Company
The Products
The Opportunity
3Wednesday, August 29, 12
The Macro Opportunity
4
1ENERGY
WATER FO
OD
7"BILLION"HUMANS"WITH"EVER"
INCREASING"ENERGY,"WATER"AND"FOOD"REQUIREMENTS
9"BILLION"HUMANS"WITH"EVER"
INCREASING"ENERGY,"WATER"AND"FOOD"REQUIREMENTS
Unprecedented Population Growth coupled with
Food and water security Water stress and scarcity Rising energy consumption / per capitaRising real incomes Urbanization & IndustrializationIncreasing calorie and protein intakeWeather disrupted by climate changeDroughts / Floods / ShortagesGeopolitical unrest
will provide greater disruptions and investment opportunities than any other period in history
4Wednesday, August 29, 12
5
Global%popula;on%has%grown%exponen;ally%in%the%last%decades
2.5%Billion%in%1950,%5B%in%1987,%7B%in%2011
Expected%to%grow%to%8%Billion%over%coming%decade,%
9%Billion%by%2040
The Macro Opportunity1
0
2
5
7
9
19501987
Today2040
Population in BillionsArable Land in hectares / person
Availability%of%arable%land%per%person%has%sharply%fallen%off%
Global:%from%0.37%hectares%per%person%in%1960%to%less%than%0.2%today
North%America:%from%1.1.%hectares%per%person%to%0.7%today
Simultaneously,%we%are%consuming%ever%more%water,%energy%
and%food%per%capita%with%uncontrollable%growth%in%carbon%
footprint
Population growth & arable land
5Wednesday, August 29, 12
6
NonKOECD%countries%account%for%vast%majority%of%the%
nearly%50%%projected%increase%in%global%energy%use%by%
2035
Vastly%different%energy%mix,%including%alterna;ves%will%have%
to%deliver%this%increase
Bridge%period%where%tradi;onal%fossil%fuels%become%cleaner%
and%more%energy%efficient%and%alterna;ve%energies%
become%more%mainstream%and%financially%efficient%will%
generate%significant%profit%opportuni;es
The Macro Opportunity1
USA OECD w/o U.S. Non OECD Energy Consumption
Energy
0
200
400
600
800
20152020
20252030
2035
6Wednesday, August 29, 12
7
The Macro Opportunity1
POPULATIONAVERAGE CALORIES PER PERSON *FEED GRAIN NEEDED * All indexed to 100 in 1970
Food
The%amount%of%food%needed%to%feed%a%growing%world%popula;on%over%the%next%40%years%will%equal%the%total%amount%of%food%already%produced%over%the%last%10,000%years.
Simultaneously%the%amount%of%arable%land%per%person%is%shrinking
Exacerbated%by%the%ever%increasing%threats%of%water%scarcity
0
175
350
525
700
19701980 1990 20002010
20202030
20402050
Climate%change%is%increasing%the%frequency%and%severity%of%weather%disrup;ons
In%some%countries,%food%costs%have%risen%%%to%40%%of%monthly%budget
Food%insecurity%already%toppling%governments
7Wednesday, August 29, 12
8
The Macro Opportunity1
Water Consumption in billion m3 / year
Water
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
1900 1960 1970 1980 2010 2025
While%the%world’s%popula;on%tripled%in%the%20th%century,%
the%use%of%renewable%water%resources%has%grown%sixKfold.%
Within%the%next%figy%years,%the%world%popula;on%will%
increase%by%another%40%to%50%%.%
This%popula;on%growth%–%coupled%with%industrializa;on%
and%urbaniza;on%–%will%result%in%an%astounding%increase%
in%demand%for%water%and%will%have%serious%consequences%
on%certain%countries%and%the%environment.
The%single%biggest%threat%investment%opportunity
8Wednesday, August 29, 12
9
The Macro Opportunity1
0
4
8
11
15
Asia North America South America Europe Africa Middle East
Energy Investments in $ TrillionsBy 2030 Projected Water and These%vital%industries%are%already%seeing%record%flows%of%
investment%capital,%new%orders%and%profit%opportuni;es.%%
Demand%for%water%&%energy%infrastructure,%technology%and%
services%is%growing%at%exponen;al%rates%while%supply%has%
remained%rela;vely%constant%and%inelas;c.
By%2030%%$%26%Trillion%projected%investment%in%energy%infrastructure
By%2030%$%22%Trillion%projected%investment%in%water%infrastructure
Why now ?
To%avoid%poli;cal%turmoil%and%regime%changes,%
governments%have%no%choice%but%to%con;nue%inves;ng%in%
food,%water%and%energy%infrastructure
9Wednesday, August 29, 12
Contents
1234
The Macro Opportunity
The Company
The Products
The Opportunity
10Wednesday, August 29, 12
11
Our%passion%is%inves;ng%in%the%future%of%our%planet%and%the%most%compelling%mega%macro%trends%facing%our%world%today.
Our%goal%is%to%provide%our%investors%with%the%ability%to%par;cipate%in%these%opportuni;es,%while%significantly%reducing%the%extreme%vola;lity%normally%associated%with%these%markets.
We%prudently%manage%the%collec;ve%exper;se%and%resources%of%some%of%the%world's%premier%niche%managers%focused%on%energy,%agriculture,%water%and%scarce%resources.%
Comprising%over%100%years%of%collec;ve%experience,%the%team%of%experts%at%Global%Fund%Exchange%provides%inKdepth%macro%strategy%research,%pormolio%management,%due%diligence,%repor;ng,%transparency%and%risk%management.
2 The Company Global Fund Exchange
“%In%order%to%have%an%even%greater%impact,%a%por;on%of%our%profits%from%your%investment%will%be%dedicated%to%a%worthy%charity%focused%on%the%needs%of%humanity”%Lauralouise%Duffy,%August%2012
The first company to offer dedicated multi manager portfolios focusing on energy, water, food and other scarce vital assets
11Wednesday, August 29, 12
Contents
1234
The Macro Opportunity
The Company
The Products
The Opportunity
12Wednesday, August 29, 12
13
3 The Products
EARTH"WIND"&"FIRE"FUNDMULTI"MANAGER"MULTI"STRATEGY"
AQUA"TERRA"FUNDWATER,"FOOD"&"NATURAL"RESOURCES
13Wednesday, August 29, 12
14
3
1234
Reduced risk, volatility & drawdown; higher consistency
Actively managed opportunity matrix; flexibility & diversity
Niche focused specialists; expertly managed & blended
Qualitative, quantitative & forensic research
The Products Why Multi Manager ?
14Wednesday, August 29, 12
15
3 The Products Why Multi Manager ?
15Wednesday, August 29, 12
Contents
1234
The Macro Opportunity
The Company
The Opportunity
The Products
16Wednesday, August 29, 12
THE TIMING IS PERFECT
17
The%immediate%and%evident%opportuni;es%for%a%visionary%investment%management%
4 The Opportunity
MACRO ENVIRONMENT SET FOR A “PERFECT STORM” OF
OPPORTUNITY
EXPONENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH WATER SCARCITY - FOOD SECURITY - DIET CHANGES
CLIMATE CHANGE - VOLATILE WEATHERINELASTIC SUPPLY OF ENERGY & RESOURCES
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS - FIAT CURRENCY PRINTING
ACT NOW
LEAVE A LEGACY BY BEING A PART OF THE GREATEST INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY OF OUR TIME
ESTABLISHED BUSINESS READY TO BENEFIT FROM THESE
OPPORTUNITIES
EXPERIENCED TEAM - EXCELLENT TRACK RECORDTOP TIER OPERATIONS & INFRASTRUCTURE
5 YEARS AHEAD OF COMPETITORSTHE HARDEST WORK HAS BEEN DONE
GLOBAL INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR MANDATES
MANY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ARE ACTIVELY SEARCHING FOR REAL ASSETS, WATER INVESTMENTS, ENERGY
DIVERSIFICATION, AGRICULTURE AND RESOURCE INVESTMENTS
VERY FEW DEDICATED AND EXPERIENCED MANAGERS IN THIS SPACE
17Wednesday, August 29, 12
We%are%five%years%into%a%severe%global%food%crisis%that%is%very%unlikely%to%go%away.%It%will%threaten%poor%countries%with%increased%malnutri;on%and%starva;on%and%even%collapse.%Resource%squabbles%and%waves%of%foodKinduced%migra;on%will%threaten%global%stability%and%global%growth.%This%threat%is%badly%underes;mated%by%almost%everybody%and%all%ins;tu;ons%with%the%possible%excep;on%of%some%military%establishments.%Jeremy&Grantham&co.founder&of&GMO
We%are%intensely%concerned%that%global%money%managers%are%woefully%unprepared%for%peak%oil%and%largely%oblivious%to%the%amount%of%;me,%capital%and%effort%it%will%take%to%mi;gate%the%problem.%13D&Research,&Inc
A%catastrophic%water%shortage%could%prove%an%even%bigger%threat%to%mankind%this%century%than%soaring%food%prices%and%the%relentless%exhaus;on%of%energy%reserves,%according%to%a%panel%of%global%experts%at%the%Goldman&Sachs&"Top&Five&Risks"&conference.
Climate%change%ranks%as%the%preeminent%danger%to%modern%human%civiliza;on%today.%The%evidence%for%significant%warming%since%the%Industrial%Revolu;on%is%now%irrefutable%and%undeniable.%Nick&Perry
"I%don't%mind%if%China%has%civil%war,%epidemics,%panics,%depressions,%all%of%that.%You%can%recover%from%that.%The%only%thing%you%cannot%recover%from%is%water,%if%China%doesn't%solve%its%water%problems%than%there's%no%China%story.%They're%spending%large%amounts%of%money%to%solve%this%problem.&Jim&Rogers
Thirty%percent%of%the%world's%arable%land%will%be%unusable%by%2020%due%to%excessive%salt%in%the%soil.%Figy%percent%may%be%unusable%by%2050.%Woodley&B&Preucil
The%global%agriculture%industry%will%have%to%supply,%as%much%food%as%has%been%produced%during%all%of%human%history,%to%meet%human%nutri;onal%needs%over%the%next%four%decades.%FAO
The%World%Bank%reports%that%80%countries%now%have%water%shortages%and%2%billion%people%lack%access%to%clean%water.%More%disturbingly,%the%World%Health%Organiza;on%has%reported%that%1%billion%people%lack%enough%water%to%simply%meet%their%basic%needs.%Arlington&InsKtute
If%current%water%consump;on%trends%con;nue,%by%2025%the%agricultural%sector%will%experience%serious%water%shortages.%Crop%losses%due%to%water%scarcity%could%be%as%high%as%350%million%metric%tons%per%year,%slightly%more%than%the%en;re%crop%yield%of%the%U.S.%This%massive%water%crisis%will%be%caused%by%water%contamina;on,%diver;ng%water%for%industrial%purposes,%and%the%deple;on%of%aquifers.%Climate%change%may%also%play%a%part.%Addi;onally,%many%aquifers%are%contaminated%each%year%by%pollu;on%and%seawater%intrusion.%InternaKonal&Food&Policy&Research&InsKtute&(IFPRI)
18
Closing Thoughts
18Wednesday, August 29, 12
19
ThankYOU
19Wednesday, August 29, 12