m. ross, n. walker, a. yamamoto ilc cost review, (updated for tb) 2013-02-07and 2013-02-26 cost...
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M. Ross, N. Walker, A. Yamamoto
ILC Cost Review, (updated for TB)
2013-02-07and 2013-02-26
Cost Drivers Future R & D
2013-02-07 ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC)
Technical highlights of this Review and comments on future work
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 2
Outline
• Five – year R & D Program for TDR (2007-2012)– Risk Reduction and Technology Development
• Selection of Cost-Drivers based on Value / Labor and Uncertainty– 5 of each selected
• Suggested Future R & D – Cost / Cost-risk– (including potential for progress)
• Conclusion
2013-02-07
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 3
• Five – year R & D Program for TDR (2007-2012)– Risk Reduction and Technology Development
• Selection of Cost-Drivers based on Value / Labor and Uncertainty– 5 of each selected
• Suggested Future R & D – Cost / Cost-risk– (including potential for progress)
• Conclusion
Outline
2013-02-07
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 4
Technical Risk R&D Topics:
1. Further R&D for cavity auxiliary design integration: tuner, coupler, He-vessel, and magnetic shield
2. Further R&D and demonstration for mitigating the CM field gradient degradation during CM assembly
3. Further R&D to improve the field gradient in the first pass surface treatment to help get the best cost-effective cavity production,
4. With longer term scope, extend the high-gradient cavity R&D to save LC project cost and support extending the energy in the best cost-effective way.
2013-02-07
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 5
Outline
• Five – year R & D Program for TDR (2007-2012)– Risk Reduction and Technology Development
• Selection of Cost-Drivers based on Value / Labor and Uncertainty– 5 of each selected
• Suggested Future R & D – Cost / Cost-risk– (including potential for progress)
• Conclusion
2013-02-07
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 6
Cost Drivers: Value/Labor and Uncertainty
Value / Labor:
1. Cavities
2. Cavity auxiliaries
3. Cryomodule assembly
4. CFS Civil
5. CFS Utilities
Uncertainty:
1. CM test infrastructure
2. Tuner / He vessel / Coupler
3. SC Material
4. CFS Underground construction
5. CFS Utilities
2013-02-07
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 7
Outline
• Five – year R & D Program for TDR (2007-2012)– Risk Reduction and Technology Development
• Selection of Cost-Drivers based on Value / Labor and Uncertainty– 10 each selected
• Suggested Future R & D – Cost / Cost-risk – (including potential for progress)
• Conclusion
2013-02-07
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 8
Cost Drivers: Value/Labor and Uncertainty
Value / Labor:
1. Cavities
2. Cavity auxiliaries
3. Cryomodule assembly
4. CFS Civil
5. CFS Utilities
Uncertainty:
1. Cryomodule testing
2. Tuner / He vessel / Coupler
3. SC Material
4. CFS Underground construction
5. CFS Utilities
2013-02-07
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 9
Cavity Production and Auxiliaries
• Electron Beam Welding automation:– Reducing ‘touch labor’ and pump / cool cycle
times– Practical industrial experience through EXFEL
production– Lab – based process studies KEK
• Integrating Cavity Auxiliaries:– Vessel – Tuner – Magnetic shield not fully
integrated and tested for TDR cost – Large spread in cost basis comparison
2013-02-07
1
2
Cavity Fabrication at KEK (1)
• KEK has invested in a state-of-the-art cavity production facility– Centerpiece: modern Electron Beam Welder– (commissioned mid-2011)
• Studies include development of – Weld process (pumping, beam parameters, cooling and
venting)– Automated tooling and instrumentation– Full production cycle
• Lab takes risk in a partnership with industry– (Similar to J-Parc SC magnet production)
A. Yamamoto 11/13/2012 10
Beam
8 July 2011
11
Cavity Fabrication at KEK (2)
A. Yamamoto 11/13/2012
Load-Lock palette EBW• Used for all other welds:
– Iris welds (8 per cavity)– stiffening rings (16 per cavity)– long and end groups welds (many!)
• Load/unload time determined by welding chamber– 9 welds @ 1.5’ per weld 15.5’
• Estimated total of ~2 hours process time per cavity– EBW required: 9,000×2 / 21,420 1 (71%)– 1 operators per shift
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 13
Cavity Associated Components (1)
• Tuner, Helium Vessel, Magnet shield and Coupler – Central to ‘plug-compatibility’– Costing cumbersome due to lack of consistent
definition– Technical R & D ongoing
• (Coupler for EXFEL and Tuner long term performance)
• Subject to specific R & D
2013-02-07
2
2
Cavity Associated Components (2)
A. Yamamoto: 2013.1.30 14
Frequency (“blade”) tuner High-power coaxial input coupler
Magnetic Shield
SCRF Cost Overview
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 15
Cryomodule Assembly
• Analytical approach not well suited to broadly – based study of alternates
• Further major cost reductions probably call for substantial changes in the EXFEL assembly processes, – or changes in the design, or technology breakthroughs – out of the scope of BNG study
• EXFEL process just getting started – early 2013 – Expected Completion 2015– Effectiveness of each step not known for industrialized
assembly process
2013-02-07
3
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 16
Cryomodule Testing
• Cryomodule testing (outside of DESY) will start in 2013 at Fermilab and KEK– New infrastructure, including beam tests, and
closer adherence to ILC parameters and integration scheme
Central theme of ongoing R & D• Technology transfer (and EXFEL experience) will
provide basis – key for usage model
• ILC Project Usage model definition awaits further project planning
2013-02-07
1
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 17
Niobium
• All SRF niobium comes from a single mine– Araxa, Brazil open pit mine owned by CBMM– Commodity manipulation leads to price / schedule
uncertainty– (TDR cost estimate uses exchange rate for Nb
procurement)
• Ore processors recommend development / qualification of a second source for SRF application– R & D to refine sheet specifications will open
competition
2013-02-07
3
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 18
CFS – Asian (Japan) Site Development
• Site studies funded through Supplementary budget (2011 – 2013)– Two sites in Japan
• Geology, Survey, Consultant reports in conjunction with local government – Beginning of the site preparation stage– Better understanding of specific geology –
including optimization of site alignment
2013-02-07
4,5
4,5
LCWS12 Machine Program (M. Ross, SLAC)
Tohoku and Kyushu Site Development Consultant reports:
2012-10-22 19
Tohoku ‘Vision’July 2012
Kyushu ‘Science Frontier’March 2012
http://tohoku-ilc.jp/data/report/2012/121002_vision_research_report.pdf http://www.pref.saga.lg.jp/web/var/rev0/0107/7246/honpen.pdf
• Second, much more comprehensive, set of reports due 03.2013
2013-02-07
2013-02-07
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 22
Outline
• Five – year R & D Program for TDR (2007-2012)– Risk Reduction and Technology Development
• Selection of Cost-Drivers based on Value / Labor and Uncertainty– 5 of each selected
• Suggested Future R & D – Cost / Cost-risk – (including potential for progress)
• Conclusion
2013-02-07
ILC Cost Review (M. Ross, SLAC) 23
Conclusion – Future R & D
2013-02-07
Value / Labor:
1. Cavities
2. Cavity auxiliaries
3. Cryomodule assembly
4. CFS Civil
5. CFS Utilities
Uncertainty:
1. CM test infrastructure
2. Tuner / He vessel / Coupler
3. SC Material
4. CFS Underground construction
5. CFS Utilities
• Related Studies underway or (EXFEL production) getting started• Milestones:
• CM technology transfer to KEK and Fermilab• EXFEL full production rate• Consultant siting studies
• Topics not well covered:• Cavity auxiliaries• SC Material