LSP 120Technological Literacy

Some of the tools and forcesdriving the evolution

of science and technology

G. P. LabedzDePaul University

Spring 2011

Outline

Today you will seehow every major topic from this course

helps you to understandone of the most powerful forces in the

world.

It affects almost every human alive

You could call it a trend

First, the work of a masterof the “old school”

(flat paper) display of data

Edward Tufte is regardedas one ofthe most insightful

creators of the graphic displayof data

alive and working today

A Graphing Master: Edward TufteClarifies the Challenger Disaster

To launch or not? The engineers saw this:

Visual Explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative. Edward Tufte

Tufte charted the SAME dataTo launch or not?

Visual Explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative. Edward Tufte

Notice the low end“prediction” on the graph (dotted)

The “virtuous cycle”

The virtuous cycle is one in which the cycle is self-reinforcing

The self-reinforcing makes things better and better (hence, “virtuous”)

Driving many sciences, and “technology” today there is a virtuous cycle, the one we’ll examine today

At the core: Semiconductor “chips”

Source: Intel, Inc

Where “chips” come from: wafersThey are made from sand

Source: Intel, Inc

Moore’s “Law”

Moore’s “Law” is really an observation made in 1967

Who is Gordon Moore? Co-founder of Intel

It says, based on experience at the time, that the number of transistors/area (note, a rate) doubles approximately every 24 months

Hmmm. And how would we model that?

The number of transistors on heredoubles every 24 months

but the wafer costs the same

Source: Intel, Inc

So the cost of making thisgoes in half every 24 months

Source: Intel, Inc

Anybody sense A TREND?

Moore’s “Law”is a description of a trend

based on experienceand (originally)

extended into the FUTURE

Note vertical axisIs exponentialincreasing by 10xEachinterval

The virtuous cycle

As the number of transistors/area growsThe transistors shrink.The circuits get much cheaper, all electronics get cheaperAnd when they shrink, they get fasterWhen the transisitor get faster, everything speeds upAll the computers and controllers speed upWhen the computers speed up, more can be computedWhen more can be computed, sceintific and engineering calculation becomes more sophisticatedWhen science becomes more sophisticated,Science and engineering advance at a more rapid pace.

It is possible to:Build computer models allowing

Crashing a car in a computer (GM, Ford);building earth-moving equipment;creating an entire cellular system;

testing a helicopter;studying wind-turbines

and on and on . . .

These computer simulationcreate enormous amounts of

data output to be studied

Billions and billions of numbers to“graph”

It’s incomprehensible to humans

Prof. Donna Cox

An art professor married her visual skills tothe data sets of scientists

at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA)

in the mid-1980s

Using newly-created computer graphics fromthe movie industry

Scientific Visualization was born

http://www.ncsa.illinois.edu/~cox/

Tonado multivariate simulation and visualization.

Prof. Bob WilmhelmsonNational Center for

Supercomputing Applications

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgumU0Ns1YI

Some bumps in the road:end of Moore’s Law?Gene Amdahl’s Law

Heat on the integrated circuits has killed the speedups!It’s the unexpected end of a trend!!

The micoprocessor industry can no longer justAdd more transistors and expect everything to go faster

So they put multiple “computers” in the computersThat’s what “multicore” means

Lousy citation from Wikipedia

Moore’s “Law” is alivebut it’s companion speedup is not

This trend CANNOT be projected forward. It’s over

In Biological Science:Human Genome Project

Benefiting from massive computing speedupsbut benefits are early and small

The Human Genome Project originally aimed to map the nucleotides contained in a human haploid reference genome (more than three billion).But, except for identical twins, no two humans are alike!

Bibliographic details for "Human Genome Project"Page name: Human Genome ProjectAuthor: Wikipedia contributorsPublisher: Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia.Date of last revision: 23 May 2011 01:17 UTCDate retrieved: 28 May 2011 13:42 UTCPermanent link: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Human_Genome_Project&oldid=430439003Primary contributors: Revision history statisticsPage Version ID: 430439003

If they can put a man on the moonwhy can’t they cure the cold?

It’s becauseTHEY

are not the same peoplewith the same tools

The people who put humans on the moon had the benefit, even in the

1960s, of highly accurate mathematical models of motion in

space, and the ability to use computing to predict what would

happen in all the important aspects ofbuilding and launching the equipment

Biologists don’t have that yet.

From this little talkyou have learned . . .

That the shrinkage, and speedupof semiconductor-based circuitsis the driver of a “virtuous cycle”

It enables radical cost reductionand performance increase

In computing and control ofmany things

. . . from this little talkyou have learned . . .

Which in turn enables radical increase in scientific computing;

In turn creating huge data sets;But also creating the ability of people

to comprehend thehuge data sets using

Complex computer-driven animation of data

. . . from this little talkyou have learned . . .

And in turn enhancing knowledgeAt an incredible rate

in some fields of thought.

. . . from this little talkyou have learned . . .

An expression of the underlying force behind these advancements

Is called “Moore’s Law”From which predictions up to now

have held trueBut which may be in a disruption.

From this little talkyou have also learned . . .

That “Moore’s Law” is an exponential process,

That the rate of increase of transistors on a semiconductor die is what matters,

And that visual representation of data, modern graphing, is moving knowledge forward.

And that this trend, which has so enhanced and disrupted the world, may be over

SO

In other words . . .

. . . . This is the math class you’ve all

been waiting for!

The only three thingsyou need to know about

PowerPointOr,

Bonus material on the DVDAbout how I made this

presentationAnd how you can quickly make

yours.