South East Asia low carbon energy opportunities

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Structure• 1. Energy use in the region – current and

projected • 2. Why energy approaches important for

inclusive green growth• 3. Current regional policies - how green? • 4. Future directions for regional energy policies –

opportunities?

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1. ENERGY USE IN THE REGION – CURRENT AND PROJECTED

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ASEAN’s potential future demand for energy

Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013

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ASEAN current energy fuel sources

Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013

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ASEAN primary energy demand by source

Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013

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ASEAN energy demand - by major economies

Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013

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Region’s forecast energy investment to 2035

Source: ADB Energy Outlook for Asia-Pacific region

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2. WHY ENERGY APPROACHES ARE IMPORTANT FOR INCLUSIVE GREEN

GROWTH

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The case for greener growth

IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress, 2013

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The case for greener energy

IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress, 2013

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CO2 emissions and energy intensity, 2011 and 2035

Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013

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ASEAN electricity capacity

Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013

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ASEAN electricity generation from renewables

Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013

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3. CURRENT REGIONAL POLICIES - HOW GREEN?

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Scope to do more on energy efficiency

Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013

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Fuel subsidies are regressive

Source: IEA South East Asia Energy Outlook, 2013

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Cooking fuels in Cambodia

Sources: UNDP, Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves

Cooking fuels also critical

• Almost 3 billion, half of the world’s population depend on wood and charcoal to cook their daily meals

• 72% of those dependent on solid fuels are in Asia• 3.5 million people die each year from diseases

that could be prevented by using clean cookstoves and fuels

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4. FUTURE ENERGY POLI-CIES

– OPPORTUNITIES?

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Global renewable electricity production

Renewable Energy Medium-Term Market Report 2013, IEA

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Is renewable investment falling?

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Falling in dollar terms, as prices drop, but Asia grow-ing

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China – renewables share of total in-stalled capacity and investment

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Solar panel prices since 1977

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Levelised renewable technology costs

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Markets saw the upside in 2013

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US solar uptake soaring

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The transformational impact of renew-ables

• “We can see the growth in renewables being transformative against conventional expectation with renewables meeting the vast majority of future power demand growth, weighing on market clearing power prices in competitive power markets, appreciably slowing the rate of demand growth for natural gas from the power sector, and requiring significant investment in new renewables.”– Credit Suisse, December 2013

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Green growth

The Stern report noted the long-term costs of continuing down a BAU path are greaterthan the short-term costs of making more sustainable economic choices.

Economic growth and environmental sustainability are not merely compatible objectives:– their integration is essential for the future

of humankind.30

GGGI programs

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THANK YOU!