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Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics | beaconecon.com

Christopher Thornberg, PhDFounding Partner, Beacon EconomicsDirector, UCR SoBA Center for Economic Forecasting and Development

Los Angeles: Then and NowNovember 2018

Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics

A look backNBER says U.S. recession began December 2007Mon Dec 1, 12:20 pm ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy slipped into recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dating committee announced on Monday.


The Good: Strong Growth Trends

Meet the Trump economy, same as the old economy

⏤ Economy on a steady growth path since

2014-2015 global commodity bust

⏤ Labor markets, business investment,

wages, exports, energy, housing all on

good trends

⏤ 2018 better: good momentum with fiscal

stimulus after-burner

⏤ Still a low chance of recession in next 24

months`

⏤California: Still out in front

3

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

WSJ Next Recession PollIt isn’t the ‘when’, it’s the ‘why’ that matters


The Bad and UglyBrakes and Imbalances

⏤Labor shortages impacting employers⏤Local Housing Shortages⏤Recent market volatility / rising long term rates⏤Aggressive Fed, flattening yield curves⏤Sharp growth in government deficits⏤Global trade / security worries

Politics going in the wrong direction⏤Little effort to deal with underinvestment in

infrastructure, rising wealth and income inequality, healthcare cost inflation, pension and entitlement issues, etc etc etc

⏤The great disconnect between economic realities and political discourse

4


GDP Growth Q3: 3.5%

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2005

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2008

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2011

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2014

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2017

Q1

Q4

Q3

Real GDP Growth (yoy)

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan-

00F

eb-0

1M

ar-0

2A

pr-0

3M

ay-0

4Ju

n-05

Jul-0

6A

ug-0

7S

ep-0

8O

ct-0

9N

ov-1

0D

ec-1

1Ja

n-13

Feb

-14

Mar

-15

Apr

-16

May

-17

Real Consumer Spending- YoY Gr


Housing Markets: Steady

6

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Jul-9

4Ja

n-96

Jul-9

7Ja

n-99

Jul-0

0Ja

n-02

Jul-0

3Ja

n-05

Jul-0

6Ja

n-08

Jul-0

9Ja

n-11

Jul-1

2Ja

n-14

Jul-1

5Ja

n-17

Case Shiller National HPI Y-o-Y Ch

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

Jan-

02N

ov-0

2Se

p-03

Jul-0

4M

ay-0

5M

ar-0

6Ja

n-07

Nov

-07

Sep-

08Ju

l-09

May

-10

Mar

-11

Jan-

12N

ov-1

2Se

p-13

Jul-1

4M

ay-1

5M

ar-1

6Ja

n-17

Nov

-17

Months Supply Homes For Sale (NAR)


Pace of Construction: Over Building?

7

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

Housing Starts per New Household

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

Jan-

92Ju

l-93

Jan-

95Ju

l-96

Jan-

98Ju

l-99

Jan-

01Ju

l-02

Jan-

04Ju

l-05

Jan-

07Ju

l-08

Jan-

10Ju

l-11

Jan-

13Ju

l-14

Jan-

16Ju

l-17

Sales and Starts

SF Starts SF Sales MF Starts


Over Borrowing?

8

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

99:Q

200

:Q2

01:Q

202

:Q2

03:Q

204

:Q2

05:Q

206

:Q2

07:Q

208

:Q2

09:Q

210

:Q2

11:Q

212

:Q2

13:Q

214

:Q2

15:Q

216

:Q2

17:Q

2

Mortgage Origination by Credit Score

Median 25th percentile 10th percentile

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

68.0%

69.0%

70.0%

Q1-

85 Q

4-86

Q3-

88 Q

2-90

Q1-

92 Q

4-93

Q3-

95 Q

2-97

Q1-

99 Q

4-00

Q3-

02 Q

2-04

Q1-

06 Q

4-07

Q3-

09 Q

2-11

Q1-

13 Q

4-14

Q3-

16

Ownership Rates


Labor Markets

9

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net Change Payroll Jobs

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010

-01-

0120

10-0

6-01

2010

-11-

0120

11-0

4-01

2011

-09-

0120

12-0

2-01

2012

-07-

0120

12-1

2-01

2013

-05-

0120

13-1

0-01

2014

-03-

0120

14-0

8-01

2015

-01-

0120

15-0

6-01

2015

-11-

0120

16-0

4-01

2016

-09-

0120

17-0

2-01

2017

-07-

0120

17-1

2-01

2018

-05-

01

Y-o-Y Growth Non Farm Payrolls


Why Slowing Job Growth?

10

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Jan-

94Ju

l-95

Jan-

97Ju

l-98

Jan-

00Ju

l-01

Jan-

03Ju

l-04

Jan-

06Ju

l-07

Jan-

09Ju

l-10

Jan-

12Ju

l-13

Jan-

15Ju

l-16

Jan-

18

US Unemployment Rate

U6

U3

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Dec

-00

Jan-

02Fe

b-03

Mar

-04

Apr

-05

May

-06

Jun-

07Ju

l-08

Aug

-09

Sep

-10

Oct

-11

Nov

-12

Dec

-13

Jan-

15Fe

b-16

Mar

-17

Apr

-18

US Job Openings Rate


Wage Gains

11

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

2017

Real Median Income- Males

45,000

55,000

65,000

75,000

85,000

95,000

105,000

115,00019

7519

7819

8119

8419

8719

9019

9319

9619

9920

0220

0520

0820

1120

1420

17

Real Average Household Income

Census BEA


62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78Life Expectancy

1973 2018

Quality of Life

Source: Countryeconomy.com. Statista. 12

0.0%

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

1.6%

2.0%Infant Mortality

1973 2018

4.15%

2.85%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%Crime Rate in the U. S.

1973 2016


The Boomer Bust

13

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Jan-

75O

ct-7

7Ju

l-80

Apr

-83

Jan-

86O

ct-8

8Ju

l-91

Apr

-94

Jan-

97O

ct-9

9Ju

l-02

Apr

-05

Jan-

08O

ct-1

0Ju

l-13

Apr

-16

US Population 25-54 Y-o-Y Gr

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Und

er 5

yea

rs5

to 9

yea

rs10

to 1

4 ye

ars

15 to

19

year

s20

to 2

4 ye

ars

25 to

29

year

s30

to 3

4 ye

ars

35 to

39

year

s40

to 4

4 ye

ars

45 to

49

year

s50

to 5

4 ye

ars

55 to

59

year

s60

to 6

4 ye

ars

65 to

69

year

s70

to 7

4 ye

ars

75 to

79

year

s80

to 8

4 ye

ars

85 y

ears

and

ove

r

2016 Population by Age (Millions)


Trade Trends

14

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan-

75

Jan-

78

Jan-

81

Jan-

84

Jan-

87

Jan-

90

Jan-

93

Jan-

96

Jan-

99

Jan-

02

Jan-

05

Jan-

08

Jan-

11

Jan-

14

Jan-

17

Share of GDP

Net National Savings Net Exports

Linear (Net National Savings) Linear (Net Exports )

-70000

-60000

-50000

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

Jan-

93A

ug-9

4M

ar-9

6O

ct-9

7M

ay-9

9D

ec-0

0Ju

l-02

Feb

-04

Sep

-05

Apr

-07

Nov

-08

Jun-

10Ja

n-12

Aug

-13

Mar

-15

Oct

-16

Trade Deficit


The China Syndrome

15

Value US Exports to China

as % of GDP: 0.75%

Demands• reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. by

$200 billion over two years• would not challenge U.S. actions taken in

intellectual property disputes• stop subsidizing high-tech sectors

identified in its “Made in China 2025“ plan• cut tariffs on “all products in non-critical

sectors” to levels at or below U.S. duties • demanded that China not target U.S.

farmers and agricultural products • demanded that China not retaliate

against U.S. restrictions on Chinese investments

• ease a process for approving U.S. investments

Country Exports ImportsTotal, 829.8 1233.9China 64.0 7.7% 249.7 20.2%Canada 151.9 18.3% 160.0 13.0%Mexico 131.3 15.8% 169.3 13.7%Japan 35.7 4.3% 70.3 5.7%Germany 29.4 3.5% 62.3 5.0%United Kingdom 33.9 4.1% 29.3 2.4%Korea, South 27.1 3.3% 35.4 2.9%France 18.1 2.2% 25.7 2.1%India 15.5 1.9% 26.8 2.2%Italy 11.9 1.4% 26.8 2.2%Taiwan 13.6 1.6% 21.6 1.8%Netherlands 24.2 2.9% 10.7 0.9%

Value China Exports to US as

% of GDP: 4.0%


CA’s Largest Trading Partners

$204.4

$51.8

$38.8

$21.6

$18.8

$11.7

$4.8

$3.9

$2.8

$1.9

0

50

100

150

200

250

#1 C

hina

#2 Jap

an

#3 M

exico

#4 S

. Kor

ea

#5 T

aiwan

#9 G

erman

y

#14 U.K

.

#16 Ita

ly

#19 Fra

nce

#21 Ire

land

$ B

illio

ns

Top CA Import Partners, 2016

$29.8

$24.6

$21.8

$15.3

$12.0

$4.6

$4.6

$4.1

$3.9

$2.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

#1 C

hina

#2 M

exico

#3 Jap

an

#4 S

. Kor

ea

#5 H

ong

Kong

#10 Ger

man

y

#11 U.K

.

#12 Switz

erland

#15 Net

herla

nds

#17 Fra

nce

$ B

illio

ns

Top CA Export Partners, 2016


The Yuan response

5.405.605.806.006.206.406.606.807.007.20

2013

-10-

2820

14-0

1-28

2014

-04-

2820

14-0

7-28

2014

-10-

2820

15-0

1-28

2015

-04-

2820

15-0

7-28

2015

-10-

2820

16-0

1-28

2016

-04-

2820

16-0

7-28

2016

-10-

2820

17-0

1-28

2017

-04-

2820

17-0

7-28

2017

-10-

2820

18-0

1-28

2018

-04-

2820

18-0

7-28

Yuan / Dollar Exchange Rate

1. Japan (120,500 jobs)

2. United Kingdom (98,200

jobs)

3. Germany (69,600 jobs)

4. Switzerland (68,300 jobs)

5. France (68,000 jobs)


Population Shifts

19

-0.3%-0.2%-0.1%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net Migration (% of Pop) by region

Northeast Region Midwest RegionSouth Region West Region

Florida 1.51% Ohio -0.05%Nevada 1.27% Penn -0.06%Colorado 1.10% Wisconsin -0.08%Oregon 1.08% Michigan -0.08%South Carolina 1.04% New Jersey -0.14%Washington 0.99% Vermont -0.19%Arizona 0.96% W Virginia -0.26%Texas 0.90% New York -0.27%North Dakota 0.79% Mississippi -0.28%Idaho 0.77% Kansas -0.30%Delaware 0.66% Connecticut -0.32%North Carolina 0.66% Wyoming -0.35%Montana 0.60% New Mexico -0.47%Georgia 0.54% Illinois -0.58%Tennessee 0.53% Alaska -0.73%

Net Migration by State 14-16

Beacon EconomicsBeacon EconomicsSource: Business Insider/Census Bureau 20


California fact versus fiction

21


Booms and Busts

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Growth in Real Output

United States California

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1/1/

881/

1/90

1/1/

921/

1/94

1/1/

961/

1/98

1/1/

001/

1/02

1/1/

041/

1/06

1/1/

081/

1/10

1/1/

121/

1/14

1/1/

161/

1/18

US Unemployment

CA US


State Economic Performance

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis 23

Q1 2018 1 Year 5 YearWashington 4.3% 3.7%California 3.5% 3.7%Utah 3.7% 3.4%Colorado 4.5% 3.4%Oregon 3.4% 2.9%Florida 2.3% 2.8%Texas 4.2% 2.8%Idaho 3.2% 2.8%Georgia 2.5% 2.8%Nevada 4.0% 2.7%

Rk State #Ann Gr Share US1 Nevada 211.2 3.4% 1.7%2 Utah 218.3 3.2% 1.7%3 Florida 1238.2 3.1% 9.8%4 Oregon 252.1 2.9% 2.0%5 Idaho 92.1 2.8% 0.7%6 Colorado 328.7 2.7% 2.6%7 Washington 413.1 2.7% 3.3%8 California 2051 2.6% 16.3%9 Georgia 537.9 2.6% 4.3%10 South Carolina 237.6 2.4% 1.9%

Real Output Employment


California Economic Engine

24

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

1981

:Q1

1982

:Q4

1984

:Q3

1986

:Q2

1988

:Q1

1989

:Q4

1991

:Q3

1993

:Q2

1995

:Q1

1996

:Q4

1998

:Q3

2000

:Q2

2002

:Q1

2003

:Q4

2005

:Q3

2007

:Q2

2009

:Q1

2010

:Q4

2012

:Q3

2014

:Q2

2016

:Q1

California Share National Personal Income

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2005

:Q1

2005

:Q4

2006

:Q3

2007

:Q2

2008

:Q1

2008

:Q4

2009

:Q3

2010

:Q2

2011

:Q1

2011

:Q4

2012

:Q3

2013

:Q2

2014

:Q1

2014

:Q4

2015

:Q3

2016

:Q2

2017

:Q1

2017

:Q4

Real State Output Index

United States California


Myth Busting

25

California's economy recently grew to become the world's fifth-largest economy if it were its own country.

Sounds like great news, but that wealth mostly benefits the very rich in the tech sector.

"Almost all the income growth and high-end job growth took place in Silicon Valley,”

Joel Kotkin, professor of Urban Studies at Chapman UniversityMay 18, 2018

25-50K 50-75K 75K-100K 100K+

State 318,146 179,115 177,425 484,322

Bay 4.4% 9.1% 24.1% 39.4%

So Cal 43.1% 27.7% 29.5% 39.4%

S Cen Val 19.6% 19.9% 8.8% 7.1%

N Cen Val 16.1% 11.8% 12.1% 10.1%

Cen Cst 5.3% 6.0% 5.1% 2.2%

Other 11.4% 25.5% 20.3% 1.8%

Share New FT Employees 2013-2016


Median Household Income

Source: ACS 26

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017M

edia

n H

ouse

hold

Inco

me

($, T

hous

ands

)

Median Household Income

Los Angeles San FranciscoSan Diego Inland Empire

Region2017 Median Household

Income

% Change 2014-17

San Jose $117,474 21.8%

San Francisco $101,714 22.2%

San Diego $76,207 15.1%

San Luis Obispo $71,880 13.2%

Los Angeles $69,992 15.7%

Sacramento $67,902 13.1%

Inland Empire $61,994 13.6%

Fresno $51,800 19.3%

Merced $47,735 8.3%


State Long Run Job Growth

Jun-18 20 Yr Ch 20 Yr Gr Sh State Jun-18 20 Yr Ch 20 Yr Gr Sh State

California 18,527.3 3,355.4 22.1% Stockton 304.7 66.2 27.8% 2.0%

Los Angeles (MD) 4,919.9 685.2 16.2% 20.4% Ventura 408.0 53.8 15.2% 1.6%

Inland Empire 1,949.6 657.5 50.9% 19.6% Visalia 186.8 38.5 26.0% 1.1%

San Diego 1,526.5 312.5 25.7% 9.3% Modesto 226.4 37.7 20.0% 1.1%

Orange County (MD) 1,560.5 225.4 16.9% 6.7% Vallejo 197.8 37.7 23.5% 1.1%

Sacramento 1,033.3 225.0 27.8% 6.7% Santa Barbara 207.6 29.5 16.6% 0.9%

Oakland (MD) 1,362.9 179.2 15.1% 5.3% SLO 137.6 29.2 26.9% 0.9%

San Francisco (MD) 994.3 141.2 16.6% 4.2% Santa Rosa 255.1 29.2 12.9% 0.9%

San Jose 1,050.5 103.6 10.9% 3.1% Salinas 205.3 27.0 15.1% 0.8%

Bakersfield 351.2 90.0 34.5% 2.7% Merced 106.6 21.0 24.5% 0.6%

Fresno 416.0 77.6 22.9% 2.3% Napa 70.6 16.3 30.0% 0.5%


The Big Slowdown

Source: EDD 28

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18Ju

l-18

Year

ove

r Yea

r Gro

wth

(%)

YOY Growth Payrolls

CA Growth US Growth

17-18 16-17

San Jose 3.7% 2.3% 1,142 Stockton 3.3% 3.7% 244 Inland Empire 3.3% 3.6% 1,511 Fresno 3.2% 1.9% 357 California 2.0% 1.9% 17,203 San Diego 2.0% 1.6% 1,484 San Francisco (MD) 1.9% 1.8% 1,141 Oakland (MD) 1.9% 1.8% 1,189 Bakersfield 1.7% 1.8% 263 Los Angeles (MD) 1.2% 1.4% 4,513 Sacramento 1.0% 2.2% 985 Ventura 0.9% 1.7% 309 Orange County (MD) 0.5% 2.1% 1,636


California Labor Markets

Source: U.S. Census 29

3456789

10111213

Jan-

90N

ov-9

1S

ep-9

3Ju

l-95

May

-97

Mar

-99

Jan-

01N

ov-0

2S

ep-0

4Ju

l-06

May

-08

Mar

-10

Jan-

12N

ov-1

3S

ep-1

5Ju

l-17

Unemployment Rate

California-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.519

75

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

% o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Net Migration as a % of Pop


Los Angeles County

30

3456789

10111213

Jan-

90D

ec-9

1N

ov-9

3O

ct-9

5Se

p-97

Aug-

99Ju

l-01

Jun-

03M

ay-0

5Ap

r-07

Mar

-09

Feb-

11Ja

n-13

Dec

-14

Nov

-16

Unemployment RatesRecord Low for LA County

Los Angeles

4.5

Industry Employment for Los Angeles (MD)Industry Sep-18 17-18 16-17Total Nonfarm 4513.4 1.2% 1.4%Hospitality 551.8 5.1% 1.9%Admin Support 284.8 3.5% 2.3%Prof Sci Tech 292.3 2.1% 2.6%Health Care 688.8 2.1% 4.0%Financial Act 224.7 1.4% 0.7%Information 219.6 1.1% -4.1%Manufacturing 351 0.9% -2.7%NR/Construction 141.9 -0.1% 3.5%Education 127.9 -0.2% 6.3%Other Services 154 -0.3% 0.4%Logistics 193.5 -0.4% 4.9%Retail Trade 421.8 -0.4% 0.4%Government 582.3 -0.7% 1.0%Wholesale Trade 222.7 -0.8% -0.6%Management 56.1 -1.9% 0.0%

Average Labor Force Growth 2014-2018: .7%


Housing = Economic Development

010002000300040005000600070008000

Q1-

95Q

2-96

Q3-

97Q

4-98

Q1-

00Q

2-01

Q3-

02Q

4-03

Q1-

05Q

2-06

Q3-

07Q

4-08

Q1-

10Q

2-11

Q3-

12Q

4-13

Q1-

15Q

2-16

Q3-

17

Residential Permits LA County

Single Famile Multi-Family

2% Job Growth

90,000 Jobs

1.5 Jobs / HH

60,000

24,400


Los Angeles Demographics

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Less than5

5 to 19y.o.

20 to 34y.o.

35 to 49y.o.

50 to 64y.o.

65 andolder

Los Angeles County Population By Age

1990 2000 2010 20178,000,000

8,500,000

9,000,000

9,500,000

10,000,000

10,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2018

County Total


Changing Profile

2017 Ch 05-17

HS or Less 2,885,939 -7,740

Some College 1,824,889 299,900

Bach + 2,244,291 557,462

County Gr 15-17 City Gr 15-17Pop w Earn 5,364 2.7% 2,218 4.3%

Median Earn 32,169 5.1% 31,191 12.8%

< HS 21,901 7.2% 21,372 15.6%

HS 28,882 6.7% 26,656 5.7%

SC 36,535 3.4% 35,392 9.6%

Bach 54,442 4.8% 51,896 1.9%

Grad 77,200 7.6% 75,290 12.7%

Education Levels LA Adults (25+)


Housing Burden

Source: ACS 34

30

32

34

36

38

40

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Median Rent as Share of Income

City of LA County

50

52

54

56

58

60

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Share of Rent Constrained Households

City of LA County


Commuting

Who Works in LA? Where do LA People Work?

2012 2017 2012 2017

Los Angeles 4,100,000 4,500,000 Los Angeles 4,100,000 4,500,000

Orange 186,755 180,195 Orange 177,942 208,865

San Bernardino 135,333 132,578 San Bernardino 48,689 62,317

Ventura 69,075 74,960 Ventura 39,796 33,713

Riverside 53,382 51,935 Riverside 16,478 16,758

Kern 11,745 9,076 Outside of California 15,342 13,596

San Diego 6,221 4,110 Kern 8,055 7,047

Santa Barbara 1,208 1,623 San Diego 6,146 4,177


Santa’s List10-17 90=17 10-17 90=17

County Total 103,766 3.0% 383,543 12.1% Vernon 47 162.1% 46 153.3% Artesia 10 0.2% 173 3.8%Los Angeles 71,691 5.1% 183,621 14.1% Bradbury 9 2.3% 128 45.6% Culver City 87 0.5% 635 3.7%Santa Clarita 12,239 19.7% 33,150 80.6% Irwindale 10 2.6% 118 41.8% Bellflower 80 0.3% 859 3.6%Palmdale 511 1.1% 22,616 92.5% Signal Hill 217 4.9% 936 25.5% Hermosa Beach -136 -1.3% 337 3.5%Lancaster 1,046 2.0% 16,660 46.0% Avalon 28 1.2% 406 21.5% El Segundo 23 0.3% 243 3.4%Unincorporated -5,238 -1.7% 14,870 5.0% Hidden Hills 5 0.8% 104 19.7% Whittier 122 0.4% 955 3.3%Pasadena 2,619 4.4% 9,141 17.2% Claremont 303 2.5% 1,584 14.6% Covina 98 0.6% 533 3.3%Glendale 3,907 5.1% 8,062 11.2% Santa Fe Springs 518 10.4% 677 14.1% Palos Verdes Est 15 0.3% 167 3.3%Long Beach 1,213 0.7% 6,890 4.0% Westlake Village 2 0.1% 380 12.6% Norwalk -16 -0.1% 820 3.0%Santa Monica 1,529 3.0% 4,688 9.8% Walnut 269 3.1% 931 11.5% Lakewood 82 0.3% 758 2.8%Torrance 150 0.3% 3,600 6.6% San Dimas 287 2.3% 1,314 11.4% Lomita 77 0.9% 211 2.5%Burbank 333 0.8% 3,422 8.3% San Fernando 145 2.3% 642 11.1% La Canada Flint 3 0.0% 174 2.5%Pomona 811 2.0% 3,037 7.9% Agoura Hills 40 0.5% 700 10.1% Manhattan Beach 120 0.8% 354 2.4%Gardena 401 1.9% 2,840 14.9% La Verne 461 3.9% 1,057 9.5% Maywood -5 -0.1% 69 1.0%Redondo Beach 119 0.4% 2,508 8.9% Azusa 988 7.4% 1,178 8.9% San Marino 6 0.1% 18 0.4%El Monte 247 0.8% 2,174 8.0% Duarte 83 1.1% 567 8.4% Inglewood 226 0.6% -58 -0.1%Alhambra 806 2.6% 2,123 7.2% Glendora 502 2.8% 1,403 8.3% South El Monte 129 2.7% -27 -0.6%West Hollywood 1,245 5.1% 2,012 8.4% Arcadia 384 1.9% 1,590 8.2% Bell -1 0.0% -185 -2.0%Carson 63 0.2% 1,848 7.6% Rolling Hills Est 1 0.0% 228 7.9% La Habra Heights 17 0.9% -264 -12.2%La Mirada 42 0.3% 1,780 13.3% Monrovia 548 3.8% 1,089 7.8% Industry -5 -6.8% -71 -51.1%


Los Angeles Economy: Long Run

37

3,700,000

3,900,000

4,100,000

4,300,000

4,500,000

4,700,000

4,900,00019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

17

Employment LA Economy

Civilian Employment Total, All Industries


Top City Growth: West

38

Household Employment by Metro

Metro 2016Chg, 2010 to 2016

% Absolute

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 6,316,214 11.0 625,998

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 3,542,411 16.7 508,100

Houston-The Woodlands 3,115,118 14.3 390,199

San Francisco-Oakland 2,447,183 17.1 356,613

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale 2,135,994 14.0 262,366

Riverside-San Bernardino 1,870,456 16.1 259,420

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue 1,935,115 13.4 229,383

Austin-Round Rock 1,074,307 24.1 208,713

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood 1,492,974 14.9 193,291

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara 1,015,579 19.0 161,799

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Real Metro Product Indexes

So Cal US Balance


MSA Output Trends (LA / OC)

2017 Gr 01-17 LQ GR Q

All industry total 904899 2.3% 10.5%

Real estate 198865 3.7% 1.57 38.2%

Information 116238 5.3% 2.09 20.7%

Accommodation 23592 2.4% 0.93 19.9%

Construction 25591 0.0% 0.73 13.1%

Health care 53313 3.3% 0.79 12.8%

Education 8498 2.2% 0.91 10.8%

Arts, entertainment 19403 2.7% 2.02 9.7%

Transportation 21636 2.2% 0.87 7.3%

Other services 18815 -0.1% 1.01 1.0%

Government 77782 0.5% 0.75 0.0%

Wholesale trade 57039 1.7% 1.01 -4.5%

Nondurable goods 29421 -0.1% 0.71 -4.5%

Retail trade 49805 1.4% 0.90 -5.3%

Finance 38242 1.0% 0.63 -5.7%

Durable goods 50176 2.5% 0.85 -6.5%

Professional 67013 1.9% 0.94 -12.6%

Administrative 29320 2.5% 0.97 -12.8%

Management 14276 -1.0% 0.67 -47.6%


Los Angeles County Employment

40

1990 2016 GR ChangeCivilian Labor Force 4,498,700 5,043,300 12.1% 544,600Civilian Employment 4,233,100 4,778,800 12.9% 545,700

Total, All Industries 4,193,200 4,395,700 4.8% 202,500Construction 146,300 133,100 -9.0% -13,200Manufacturing 814,800 360,400 -55.8% -454,400Wholesale Trade 229,500 227,000 -1.1% -2,500Retail Trade 408,300 422,300 3.4% 14,000Transportation & Warehousing 144,500 168,800 16.8% 24,300

Information 194,200 230,900 18.9% 36,700Motion Picture & Sound Recording 103,800 150,500 45.0% 46,700Finance & Insurance 198,300 138,100 -30.4% -60,200Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 82,600 81,700 -1.1% -900Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 244,900 278,300 13.6% 33,400Management of Companies & Enterprises 80,800 56,900 -29.6% -23,900Administrative & Support & Waste Services 220,900 270,000 22.2% 49,100Educational Services 85,300 123,000 44.2% 37,700Health Care & Social Assistance 314,000 644,400 105.2% 330,400Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 56,000 86,700 54.8% 30,700Accommodation & Food Services 253,000 423,900 67.5% 170,900

Other Services 137,500 153,400 11.6% 15,900Government 542,500 576,300 6.2% 33,800


A Changing Labor Market1990 2017 Ch

Civilian Labor Force 4,498.7 5,123.0 624.3 Civilian Employment 4,233.1 4,882.1 649.0

Total, All Industries 4,193.2 4,441.4 248.2

2017 Ch 2017 ChTransportation Eq Mfg 45,600 -112,100 Electrical eq Mfg 9,900 -15,400Computer Electronic Mfg 42,100 -85,100 Telecommunications 20,800 -14,900Apparel Mfg 31,700 -58,500 Primary Metal Mfg 6,200 -9,700Credit Intermediation 61,200 -42,700 Heavy Engineering Const 12,600 -9,500Fabricated Metal Mfg 42,700 -33,000 Hobby, Book & Music Stores 14,500 -9,400Federal Government 48,000 -26,500 Paper Mfg 6,700 -8,400Furniture Mfg 13,700 -24,600 Petroleum Products Mfg 5,700 -8,100Machinery Mfg 13,900 -23,900 Total Farm 5,800 -7,900Management 57,400 -23,400 Publishing Industries 15,900 -7,500Printing Activities 13,500 -22,600 Food Mfg 40,500 -7,200Insurance Carriers 50,300 -19,900 Air Transportation 26,800 -7,100Plastics Mfg 12,600 -16,200 Accounting 44,000 -6,000





2017 Ch 2017 ChSocial Assistance 252,300 205,700 Hospitals 119,200 18,700Accommodation & Food 435,000 182,000 Computer Systems Design 35,700 16,600Ambulatory Health Care 214,600 97,200 Investigation & Security 53,200 15,800Local Government 444,900 46,800 Food & Beverage Stores 93,500 12,900Educational Services 125,300 40,000 Personal Services 54,600 12,200Support for Transportation 59,800 33,900 Religious, Grants 61,000 9,000Nursing Care Facilities 82,900 33,300 Services to Buildings 45,000 7,100Arts, Entertainment 88,900 32,900 Broadcasting 23,300 6,500Motion Picture & Sound 132,600 28,800 Real Estate 63,000 5,300Management, Scientific 50,600 28,100 Health & Personal Care 32,700 4,500Employment Services 105,900 27,800 Couriers & Messengers 25,500 4,400State Government 92,500 22,600 Clothing s Stores 56,800 2,900





2017 Ch 2017 ChWholesale 224,500 -5,000 Chemical Mfg 19,600 -5,300

Trade Contractors 90,900 -500 Warehousing & Storage 19,400 1,000General Merchandise 67,500 2,600 Scientific Research 19,400 1,600Legal Services 51,100 -2,100 Electronics & Appliance 18,100 -1,000Motor Vehicle & Parts 47,000 2,000 Business Support Services 15,200 -2,200Repair & Maintenance 38,500 -4,600 Furniture Stores 14,500 -400Construction of Buildings 34,200 1,300 Gasoline Stations 12,100 -1,500Architectural, Engineering 33,300 -500 Transit & Passenger 11,800 1,100Truck Transportation 29,400 2,500 Utilities 11,600 -6,200Securities, Commodity 25,900 1,800 Travel Arrangement 9,400 -4,400Building Material & Garden 25,100 -1,700 Data Processing 7,700 800Advertising Services 24,300 100 Textile Mills 5,000 -3,300


Firms by Size (00-16)

<100 100-499 500-999 >1000 <100 100-499 500-999 >1000Total 263,794 5,140 342 213 43,314 -56 -38 -13Construction 14,127 130 6 6 2,113 -38 -3 0Manufacturing 11,462 580 39 24 -4,885 -582 -37 3Wholesale trade 22,844 327 20 4 1,144 -61 7 0Retail trade 28,196 810 10 1 640 252 -2 1Logistics 7,421 221 23 14 2,641 -6 8 3Information 10,376 281 22 20 2,126 20 -7 1Finance 12,942 185 23 13 2,502 -44 -2 -1Real estate 15,788 87 7 0 4,848 6 3 -3Professional 34,778 381 26 9 9,756 70 -3 -20Management 1,276 149 17 13 155 4 2 1Admin, support 10,639 420 38 16 616 -159 -24 -16Education 3,793 176 18 18 1,331 80 5 6Health care 31,337 672 48 57 8,851 287 8 6Arts, entertainment 15,190 103 11 7 7,214 -12 4 1Accommodation 22,039 412 22 4 6,320 160 9 3Other services 20,245 170 10 4 1,216 -1 -1 1


What can Beacon do for you?

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Development

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Analysis

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For more information, see Slide 2.

Continue the conversation.

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forecasting

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testimony

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