Looking to the future of the past:a new era in the analysis of historical census data?

Eilidh Garrett, University of Essex.

With thanks to: Alice Reid, Ros Davies; CAMPOP, University of Cambridge

Andrew Blaikie; University of Aberdeen

Leverhulme TrustWellcome Trust

ESRCDigitising Scotland Project

General Register Office for Scotland/National Records for Scotland

Despite over 50 years of concentrated research, we still do not know why fertility declined during the Demographic Transition.

Cummins, 2011 Journal of Economic History, 71.2 p. 465

Published: 1917, 477 pages

Published: 1923260 pages

Report on the twelfth decennial census of Scotland, Vol. 1 [Parts 1-23] Page 2,published: 1912

Published 1913

Figure produced in Garrett, 1986.

Values of Ig by province of Europe, 1870Coale and Watkins, The decline of Fertility in Europe 1986 (Princeton).

The ‘Coale’ or ‘Princeton Index’ of Marital fertility Ig

Scotland 1881: Ig M. Anderson & D.J. Morse, Population Studies, 47

(1993) 5-25

‘Princeton’ Indeces:

If Overall fertilityIg Marital fertilityIh Illegitimate fertilityIm Proportions married

Hutterite fertility age specific marital fertility schedule applied to age distribution of women observed to give ‘expected’ number of births.

Index = observed/expected fertility

Im – measure of proportions married

Statistical tables –Census reports and Registrar General’s reports

HISTPOP histpop.org

Constrained by reporting geography and statistics published.

Forty-fourth annual report of the registrar-general (1881) BPP 1883 XX [C.3620] Page 35

Census of England and Wales, 1881, Population, Vol. III. Age, marriage, occupation, birth-place

R.I. Woods The Demography of Victorian England and Wales 2000 (CUP) Fig 4.17

Variations in Ig among the (registration) districts of England and Wales, 1861, 1891 and 1911

Considering fertility at the community level, using census data.

Keighley, West Yorkshire: 1851-1881 census snapshots, linked census data

13 ‘OPCS’ communities, England & Wales: 1891-1921 (anonymised): Abergavenny, Axminster, Bethnal Green, Banbury, Bolton, Earsdon, Morland, Pinner, Saffron Walden, Stoke, Swansea, Walthamstow, York.

census snap shots1911 fertility census

Skye and Kilmarnock, Scotland: 1861-1901census snapshots

linked civil register and census data

Ipswich, England: 1871-1901; 1911census snapshots

linked vaccination register/civil register and census data1911 findmypast links

Belfast, Ireland: 1901 and 1911.census snapshots

linked street register and census data1911 findmypast links

Garrett et al, 2001

The family of Alex and Johanna Beaton/Alexander and Hannah Bethune: censuses and civil registers, Skye 1861-1881

1861 censusupper halistra alex beaton head 26 tailor

johanna beaton wife 26ann beaton dau 6 scholarjohn beaton son 3donald beaton son 1

1871 censusstein village alexander bethune head 38 merchant and dealer

hanna bethune wife 38

ann bethune dau 16 domestic servjohn bethune son 12 scholardonald died 30/04/1861

christy bethune dau 8 scholar born 10/03/1862margaret born 09/08/1864

died 08/08/1865mary bethune dau 6 scholar born 09/08/1864

maggie bethune dau 4 born 27/06/1866joanna ? born 19/07/1868dolina bethune dau 9mo born 13/9/1870

1881 censusstein john bethune head 22 merchant

alexander bethune father 48 tailorhannah bethune mother 48 tailor's wifeann ? married Malcolm McLeod 20/04/1876donaldchristina bethune sister 20 general servantmargaretmary bethune sister 16 general servantmaggie bethune sister 14 scholarjohanna bethune sister 11 scholardolina bethune sister 9 scholaragnes bethune sister 7 scholar born 14/12/1872

27.4.54 27.8.55 18.3.57 27.1.59 2.10.60 14.9.62 27.2.65 5.11.67 1875

1.3 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.7 (6.8)

The McPhail Family of Jura

29.5 30.8 32.4 34.3 36.0 38.0 40.5 43.2 50.0

Date of Birth

Mother’sAge at Birth

Interbirth interval (years)

Angus McPhail married Mary McColl; 27.4.54

Mary Ann Margaret Archibald Hugh John Neil

Image: Findmypast.co.uk

A 1911 census return fromIpswich, England

WILLIAM COBBOLD AND MARY ANN BIRD MARRIED IN IPSWICH, 4th quarter OF 1888.

CHILDREN OF WILLIAM AND MARY ANN COBBOLD REGISTERED 1889-1908:

name of child age91 age01 age11 birthdate deathdate1 William John 25/07/1889 26/01/18902 Alice Maud 1 10 20 02/09/18903 John 08/10/1892 22/10/18924 Elsie 6 17 30/04/18945 Eva 4 14 13/09/18966 Christian 1 11 12/06/18997 Un named girl twin * Alexandra 0 03/03/1901 21/04/19028 Un named boy twin * Albert 0 03/03/1901 28/04/19029 Mahela? Matilda? 8 10/12/1902

10 Dorothy Mildred 11/04/1904 16/02/190511 Mary 2 28/06/1908

Extract from the 1911 Census return of 14 Clune Place, Pottinger Ward, Belfast –showing confusion in the filling out of the ‘particulars as to marriage’.

http://www.census.nationalarchives.ie/

Fertility census: Scotland, 1911: an example

Reproduced by kind permission of the Registrar General for Scotland.

Censuses of 1901 and 1911

37654 people in 1911

10% of Belfast in 1911

Street directories

1901, 1903, 1905, 1907, 1908, 1910

Allow detailed examination of mobility

Shankill: working class Protestant

Falls: working class Catholic

Windsor: middle class Protestant

Sample populations: drawn from selected wards & streets, Belfast 1911

1901 Census5 Ligoniel St. (outskirts of Belfast)Mary (26) and Simon ARMOUR (28, quarry labourer)Living with 2 children and sharing house with Richard Proudford (44, widower, gardener) and his 5 children aged 4 - 16

1907 directory29 Bowness Road: S. Armour, wood turner1908 directory31 Bowness Road: S. Armour, wood turner

1910 Directory130 Leopold Street: S. Armour, wood turner

1911 Census59 Cambrai StreetSimon (38, wood turner) & Mary (35) ARMOUR: married 14 years, 10 children 4 dead.

Moves by the Armour Family 1901-1911

percentage of households present in 1911 which were there in previous years, married people, by

age in 1911

0102030405060708090

100

J-01

J-02

J-03

J-04

J-05

J-06

J-07

J-08

J-09

J-10

J-11

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70+

http://icem.data-archive.ac.uk/

Integrated Census Microdata: ICeM

http://www.histpop.org/

Individual level census returns: Scotland (1851-1901), England & Wales (1851-1861, 1881-1911)NESSTAR

Published census reports 1801-1931: GB, Scotland, England & Wales, IrelandReports of the Registrars General: Scotland (1855-1919), England & Wales (1837-1920)

http://www.census.nationalarchives.ie/ Online, searchable databases

Transcribed, geo-referenced contents of all birth marriage and death certificates of Scotland, 1855 - …

Linked??

http://icem.data-archive.ac.uk

England and Wales 1851, 1861, (1871), 1881, 1891, 1901, 1911

c.17-35 million records

Scotland1851, 1861, 1871, 1881, 1891, 1901, (1911)

c.2.9-4.4 million records

‘Anonymised’ (without names and addresses)

and ‘full’ versionsof the datasets

The parishes of Scotland, England & Wales, 1851.

The data underlying this map are taken from Schurer, K. and Higgs, E., Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM); 1851 -1911 [computer file]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive

[distributor], April 2014. SN: 7481 , http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7481-1.

The Geographical Information System was constructed by Dr C. F. Roughley and Dr A. E. M. Satchell, both

of the University of Cambridge. Further details are provided in

E. Higgs, C. Jones, K. Schürer and A. Wilkinson, The Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM) Guide, (2013),

http://www.essex.ac.uk/history/research/icem/documents/icem_guide.pdf

We are still asking:

When did fertility decline start?Where did it start?Who started it?Why did it start?How was it achieved?

We may now have the tools to answer these questions within our

grasp

An Atlas of Victorian Fertility (England and Wales)

“Births per married woman, in the 5 years before the 1881 census”

Source: ICeM data, quarterly census reports April 1876-March 1881

DRAFT MAP – PLEASE DO NOT

REPRODUCE WITHOUT PERMISSION.

With thanks to Joe Day