longevity of civilizations
DESCRIPTION
Longevity of Civilizations. ASTR 1420 Lecture 22 from a Nature paper. Drake Equation (Carl Sagan’s version). N = N * × f planet × f E × f life × f intell × f civ × f L. ×. ×. ×. ×. N number of transmitting civilizations. f planet. f Earth. f life. N *. ×. ×. =. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Longevity of Civilizations
ASTR 1420
Lecture 22
from a Nature paper
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Drake Equation (Carl Sagan’s version)
N number of transmitting civilizations
N = N* × fplanet × fE × flife × fintell × fciv × fL
× × × ×
× × =
N
N* fplanet fEarth flife
fintell fciv flong
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Delta t argument (Richard Gott 1993, Nature, 363, 315)
Tbegin TEnd
Past Future
If there is an End, where do we stand now in the time axis?
TNow
Lifetime of an event
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Delta t argument (Richard Gott 1993, Nature, 363, 315)
Tbegin TEnd
Past Future
• t will range between 0 and 1.
• Calculates a probability of t being in the first or last 2.5%.
Probability of 0.025 ≤ t ≤ 0.975 ?
95%
• At the 95% confidence level, t will NOT be in the beginning 2.5% or in the ending 2.5% range.
€
t ≡Tpast
Tend −Tbegin
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Delta t argument (Richard Gott 1993, Nature, 363, 315)
Tbegin TEnd
Past Future
€
t ≡Tpast
Tend −Tbegin
• 0.025 ≤ t ≤ 0.975
• Similarly, at the 99% confidence level
€
1
39TPast ≤ TFuture ≤ 39TPast
€
1
197TPast ≤ TFuture ≤197TPast
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Delta t argument
€
1
39×Tpast < Tfuture < 39 ×Tpast
• the length of time something has been observable in the past is a rough measure of its future observability…
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History of Human
• Homo Sapiens : ≈200,000 years.
o 200,000 / 39 < Future < 39*200,0005128 years < Future < 7.8 million years
• For our human civilization of 10,000 years
o 10,000 / 39 < Future < 39 * 10,000256 years < Future < 390,000 years
• Our industrial civilization of ≈200 yearso 200 / 39 < Future < 39 * 2005 years < Future < 7,800 years
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If aliens are like human
6,400 ≤ N ≤ 9.8 million
R* 20 stars/yr
fplanet 1
nE 0.5
flife 0.5
fintell 0.5
fciv 0.5
L 5100 yrs
R* 20 stars/yr
fplanet 1
nE 0.5
flife 0.5
fintell 0.5
fciv 0.5
L 7.8 million yrs
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SETI Debate
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Ernst Mayr• Bioastronomy News (1995, V7, No. 3)
• German/American biologist• Harvard Biology Prof.• 7/5/1904 – 2/3/2005
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Carl Sagan • Bioastronomy News (1995, V7, No. 4)
• We need “functional equivalent of human” not “prevalent humanoids”…
• Radio technology If Aztec civilization survived, would they develop radio technology in several millenia?
• We, humanoids, are very young, but we have ~5 billion years to spare in the future.
• American Astronomer• Cornell Professor• 11/9/1034 – 12/20/1996
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SETI debate
Ben Zuckerman• UCLA Astronomy professor
Seth Shostak• SETI Astronomer
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Zuckerman
3 simple postulates have major implications for SETI
1. after the development of technology, all civilizations will build similar TPF space telescopes
2. Intelligent life is curious about other life forms
3. Once they use space telescopes to discover nearby habitable or life-bearing planets, curiosity will lead them to visit these planet
4. Therefore, SETI program need to look more distant stars!
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Shostak
• Zuckerman’s argument is only an extended version of Fermi Paradox
• Interstellar travel is not as easy as Zuckerman assumes
• Also, within 500 light years of us we can only find about a million star systems, so the probability of worlds with intelligent beings is smaller still.
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In summary…
Important Concepts• Delta t argument
• Statistical approach to the longevity of civilizations
• Logics behind SETI proponent and opponent
Important Terms
UFOs : next class!