locarno – flooding 2000 andrea castelletti politecnico di milano integrated and participatory...
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Locarno – flooding 2000
Andrea CastellettiPolitecnico di Milano
Integrated and participatory
planning: a procedural approach
NRMNRMLec02Lec02
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Milan
Miorina dam
river Ticino
Lake Maggiore
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Inhabitants: 1.500.000
Irrigated area: 500.000 ha
50% of Italy’s rice production
30% of EU’s rice production
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Regulated lake
Why is Lake Maggiore regulated
flood stage
water demand
tin
flow
t
leve
l
J D t
rele
ase
Natural lake
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The regulation range
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
1-g
en
25
-ge
n
18
-fe
b
13
-ma
r
6-a
pr
30
-ap
r
24
-ma
g
17
-giu
11
-lu
g
4-a
go
28
-ag
o
21
-se
t
15
-ott
8-n
ov
2-d
ic
26
-dic
La
ke
le
ve
l [m
]
Regulation range
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Historical performance
natural lake
regulated historyflood
deficit
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Historical performance
natural lake
regulated historyflood
deficit
To reduce lake flooding Switzerland proposes the excavation of lake outlet to Italy.
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Problem definition
Excavation design (with a model)
Political decision
Proposal
Sta
keh
old
ers
Public consultation
How was the excavation designed?
The classical planning
approachThe classical planning
approach
The proposal was
rejected!The proposal was
rejected!
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Why?
1. Only lakeside population will take advantage of the excavation.
What about the others:
- riverside population
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Why?
1. Only the lake side population will take advantage of the excavation?
What about the others:
- riverside population: fears that increasing the release rate will cause larger floods;
- farmers: fear that increasing the release rate will cause more severe droughts.
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Why?
1. Only the lake side population will take advantage of the excavation?
2. The proposal (and the design) comes from one of the two parties involved, the other one (Italy) does not trust it
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Problem definition
Dredging design (with a model)
Political decision
Proposal
Sta
keh
old
ers
Public consultation
How was the excavation designed?
The classical planning
approachThe classical planning
approachThe proposal was
rejected!The proposal was
rejected!The approach is wrong!!!
The approach is wrong!!!
What to do?
Get more interests involved:
swap excavation for reservoir capacity
Make participatory decisions
What to do?
Get more interests involved:
swap excavation for reservoir capacity
Make participatory decisions
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Problem definition
Dredging design (with a model)
Political decision
Proposal
Sta
keh
old
ers
Public consultation
Negotiate on positionsNegotiate on interests
Positions:I want to excavate
I want a larger reservoir
Positions:I want to excavate
I want a larger reservoirInterests: Avoid floods
Reduce droughts
Interests: Avoid floods
Reduce droughts
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Let’s experiencing a real negotiation
Try to reach an agreement between Italy and
Switzerland.
Italy
Switzerland
Downstream
Upstream
Italy
Switzerland
Downstream
Upstream
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Problem definition
Dredging design (with a model)
Political decision
Proposal
Sta
keh
old
ers
Public consultation
Negotiate on positionsNegotiate on interests
Positions:I want to dredge
I want a larger reservoir
Positions:I want to dredge
I want a larger reservoir
Interests: Avoid floods
Reduce droughts
Interests: Avoid floods
Reduce droughts
To negotiate one needs to know the effects of the alternatives!
To negotiate one needs to know the effects of the alternatives!
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Write your final agreement on a piece of paper
e.g. SatisfactionUpstream 43Downstream 22
or
No Agreement
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Problem definition
Dredging design (with a model)
Political decision
Proposal
Sta
keh
old
ers
Public consultation
Negotiate on positionsNegotiate on interests
Positions:I want to dredge
I want a larger reservoir
Positions:I want to dredge
I want a larger reservoir
Interests: Avoid floods
Reduce droughts
Interests: Avoid floods
Reduce droughts
To negotiate one needs to know the effects of the alternatives
1) Use models to evaluate in a “participatory” process the impacts of each alternative;
2) start a “social learning process”;
3) by means of which an “acceptable compromise” can be found.
To negotiate one needs to know the effects of the alternatives
1) Use models to evaluate in a “participatory” process the impacts of each alternative;
2) start a “social learning process”;
3) by means of which an “acceptable compromise” can be found.
Integrated Water Resources ManagementIWRM
Integrated Water Resources ManagementIWRM
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IWRM paradigm is adopted by EU
Water Framework Directive (WFD)
establishes a framework for the protection of all waters
requires within 2009 the production of River Basin Management Plans (RBMP) to be prepared following the IWRM paradigm
WFD Art. 13
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Integration
of environmental objectives; of all water uses, functions and values into a common
policy frameworkwater for health and human consumption, water for
economic sectors, transport, leisure, etc.
of all significant management and ecological aspects … including those which are beyond the scope of WFD, such as flood protection;
of stakeholders and civil society in decision making
[WFD CIS GD11]
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The WFD guidelines states:
“planning is a process”
and requires
“to provide procedural guidance on the production and development of River Basin Management Plans”
supported by appropriate toolboxes, that “should help to identify the possible trade-offs among quantifiable objectives so that further debates and analysis can be more informed”.
Moreover the toolboxes must support “planning as a systematic, integrative and iterative process”.
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Problem definition
Excavation design (with a model)
Political decision
Sta
keh
old
ers
IWRM: the need for a procedure
Procedure
Procedure
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ICT T
ools
yes
Final (political) decision
reasonable alternatives
2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing Alternatives
4. Estimating effectsS
takeh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
5. Evaluation
noMitigation,
and compensatio
n, Agreement
?
MO
DSS
PIP procedure
PParticipatory and IIntegrated PPlanning procedure
6. Comparison or negotiation
Problem formulationSetting the goal and identifying the
constraints
Designing alternatives/options
Selecting the best compromise alternative
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Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
• System understanding
• Stakeholders identification
• System definition in time and space
• Institutional and legal analysis
• Setting up the Objectives
among which environmental objectives, e.g. “good water status” and “sustainable uses”, as required by the WFD.
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Regulated lake
Why is Lake Maggiore regulated
flood stage
water demand
tin
flow
t
leve
l
J D t
rele
ase
Natural lake
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Upstream stakeholders
Coastline towns
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Upstream stakeholders
Coastline towns
Natural reserve
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Upstream stakeholders
Coastline towns
Navigation
Natural reserve
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Downstream stakeholders
fiume Po
Pavia
sbarramento della Miorina
PARCO DEL
TICINO ENEL
CONSORZIO VILLORESI
CONSORZIO EST SESIA
fiume Ticino
Canale Industriale
Canale Regina Elena
Canale Villoresi
Bacino di ripartizione del
Panperduto
Lago Maggiore
IRRIGATION DISTRICTS:
Consorzio Est Sesia
RIVER NATURAL PARKS
Parchi Naturali della Valle del Ticino
HYDROPOWER COMPANY
Enel
Consorzio Villoresi
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Sectors
Flooding
Tourism
Environment
Fisheries
Navigation
Mosquitos
Flooding
Tourism
Hydropower
Environment
Irrigation
Upstream Downstream
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Problem objective
Find a way of managing the lake
that gathers a consent larger
than the present one and enhances environmental quality (WFD requirements).
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2. Conceptualisation
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
Defining Actions
(measures)
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Actions proposed by the stakeholders
excavate the lake outletSwisses:
change the regulation rangeFarmers:
Italians:
improve environmental qualityParks:
change the way the lake is presently regulated (regulation policy)
Lake manager:
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More in general …
flood gatesflood gates
dykesdykeswater rightswater rights
capcap
regulation range
regulation range
fish laddersfish ladders
wastewater treatment
wastewater treatment
regulatio
n
regulatio
nIntegrataed m
anagement
Integrataed managem
ent
using minesusing mines
remeanderingremeandering
irrigation techniques
irrigation techniques
structuralstructuralstructuralstructural
Types of actionsTypes of actions
normativenormativenormativenormative
managementmanagementmanagementmanagement
mefmef
Actions are instantiated when they clearly state
“who is doing what and when”.
Actions are instantiated when they clearly state
“who is doing what and when”.
An alternative (program of measures) is
a coordinated mix of instantiated actionsAn alternative (program of measures) is
a coordinated mix of instantiated actions
The scope of planning is to identify the “best
compromise alternative”
The scope of planning is to identify the “best
compromise alternative”
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Actions proposed by the stakeholders
excavate the lake outletSwisses:
change the regulation rangeFarmers:
Italians:
improve environmental qualityParks:
change the way the lake is presently regulated (regulation policy)
Lake manager:
planning actions (once for ever)
normative
structural
managementdecisions(daily)
regulation policy (design it once for ever)
Alternative
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2. Conceptualisation
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
Defining Actions
(measures)
Defining Criteria and
Indicators
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An example of hierarchy: Irrigation
Income
Distributioncost
Supplydeficit
Harvest
Crop stress€
Indicators are not necessarily
quantitativeIndicators are not necessarily
quantitative
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I_esM_C03
Maximum number of consecutive days of traffic interruption.
[days]
where: Di = number of days of the i-th flooding event; I = set of flooding events in the planning horizon.
I_esM_C03
Maximum number of consecutive days of traffic interruption.
[days]
where: Di = number of days of the i-th flooding event; I = set of flooding events in the planning horizon.
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Upstream flooding: Floodings in Locarno (?)
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Indicator: Flooded area
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
level [m]
floo
ded
area
[km
2 ]
flooding threshold
1,24 3,002,64
Historical max.(1993)
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Flooded area1993 – 2005 events
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parks
services
shopping a.
…
Upstream flooding: Land use
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Lakeside, 2000
Matteotti Square(213 cm).
Cavour Square and promenade(124 cm).
Corner Rosselli-Veneto (273 cm).
Upstream flooding: Interruption in traffic
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Raised walkways down town, 1997.
Walkways extension.
Upstream flooding: Walking
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Another example: Upstream Environment
Quality of the protected area
WetlandMigration
BirdsFish
Nest Ciprinidi
reproductionNanociperetiWater
reeds
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Sectors
Flooding
Tourism
Environment
Fisheries
Navigation
Mosquitos
Flooding
Tourism
Hydropower
Environment
Irrigation
7
3
4
2
5
4
4
4
3
2
4
Indicators
42 indicators
Upstream Downstream
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2. Conceptualisation
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
Defining Actions
(measures)
Identifying the Model
Defining Criteria and
Indicators
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Components
To take decisions we need to simulate the system behaviour
River ecosystem
Catchments
Lake
River Ticino
Irrigation districts
Distribution policy
Crops
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The water system topological scheme
scheme
Villoresi
R. Elena
Industriale
Porto Torre
River Po
catchment
irr. district
junctiondiversion
power plant
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Identifying the model
Villoresi
R. Elena
Industriale
Porto Torre
River Po
External drivers
precipitation
water demand
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2. Conceptualisation
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
3. Designing Alternatives
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Definition of scenarios
Precipitation (climate change) Water demand Crop prices Demographic changes Land use changes Tourist trends .....
Scenario: (time) trajectories of external drivers that are not controllable by the Decision Makers:
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Irri
ga
tion
de
ficit
Floods
structural
normative
actionsindicators
flooded area
...
max flood
14 days deficit
...regulatory (policy)
alternatives
A1
...
A2
...
An
Designing alternatives
Experts
J1
J2
Pareto
Optimisation
A
C BIr
rig
atio
n d
efic
it
Floods
Dominated alternative
Dominating alternative Pareto frontier
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2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing alternatives
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
4. Estimating effects
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Estimation of the effectsSIMULATION
Impact matrix
Estimating effects
structural
normative
actionsindicators
flooded area
...
max flood
14 days deficit
...regulatory (policy)
alternatives
A1
...
A2
...
An
Experts
J1
J2
Pareto
Optimisation
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Effects of the Alternatives
utopia
Irrigation deficit [Mm3/year]
Flo
od
ing
day
s [d
ay/y
ear]
100 200 300 400 500 600
1
2
3
4
5
history
6
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Impact matrix
utopia
Irrigation deficit [Mm3/year]
Flo
od
ing
day
s [d
ay/y
ear]
100 200 300 400 500 600
1
2
3
4
5
history
6
1.69......4.514.22mean annual flooded
area3.31......7.17.1max flooded area
...................
..................
..................
......14 d. deficit
..................
A54......A1A0
alternatives
ind
icat
ors
The Matrix of effects is the base for the cost
effectiveness analysis required by WFD
The Matrix of effects is the base for the cost
effectiveness analysis required by WFD
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2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing alternatives
4. Estimating effects
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
5. Evaluation
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Impact matrix
1.69......4.514.22mean annual flooded area
3.31......7.17.1max flooded area
..................
..................
..................
230......18020314 d. deficit
..................
A54......A1A0
Alternatives
Indi
cato
rs
1
0
Value
i-th indicator
Value functions = stakeholders satisfaction
Value functions
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1.69......4.514.22mean annual flooded area
3.31......7.17.1max flooded area
..................
..................
..................
230......18020314 d. deficit
..................
A54......A1A0
Alternatives
Indi
cato
rs
1
0
Value
i-th indicator
......0.30.41
......0.50.5
............
............
............
......0.650.4
............
0.75
0.32
...
...
...
0
...
Value matrix
The indicators belonging tosame sector
are aggregated
0.82
0.18
Weights
Value functions
Value functions = stakeholders satisfaction
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0.150.070.010.850.16downstr. envir.
hydropower
irrigation
upstr.envir.
lake flood
0.700.800.660.150.83
0.590.750.860.000.61
0.480.160.140.670.26
0.660.700.550.220.12
A54…A4A2A1A0
AlternativesIn
de
xes
Value matrix
e.g. this line is the Upstream satisfaction
table of the initial game.
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6. Comparison or negotiations
reasonable alternative
2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing alternatives
4. Estimating effects
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
5. Evaluation
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0.150.070.010.850.16downstr. envir.
hydropower
irrigation
upstr.envir.
lake flood
0.700.800.660.150.83
0.590.750.860.000.61
0.480.160.140.670.26
0.660.700.550.220.12
A54…A4A2A1A0
AlternativesIn
de
xes
Value matrix
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A0 A0
Pareto Race
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A0 A26
excessive loss in irrigation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A36 A26
going on ...
reasonable alternative
A0 no actions0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A36 A34
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Lake-env River_env. Hydrop. Irrig. Lake fllooding
uti
lity
A0 A36 A34
Lake_flooding1993 flood
Irrigation1976 drought
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
15/03/76 22/03/76 29/03/76 05/04/76 12/04/76 19/04/76 26/04/76
flo
w [
m3 /s
] inflow
water demand
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
15/09/93 19/09/93 23/09/93 27/09/93 01/10/93 05/10/93 09/10/93 13/10/93 17/10/93 21/10/93 25/10/93 29/10/93
leve
l [m
]
Flooding level at Locarno
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Lake-env River_env. Hydrop. Irrig. Lake flooding
uti
lity
A0 A36 A34
Effects of A34
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0.150.070.010.850.16downstr. envir.
hydropower
irrigation
upstr.envir.
lake flood
0.700.800.660.150.83
0.590.750.860.000.61
0.480.160.140.670.26
0.660.700.550.220.12
A54…A4A2A1A0
AlternativesIn
de
xes
Value matrix
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A0 A0
Pareto Race
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A0 A26
excessive loss in irrigation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A36 A26
going on ...
reasonable alternative
A0 no actions0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A36 A34
significant losses MITIGATE!
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6. Comparison or negotiation
reasonable alternatives
2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing alternatives
4. Estimating effects
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
5. Evaluation
noMitigation and
compensation
Agreement?
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
uti
lity
0.5
Mitigation measures
A0
new area to acquired to mitigate A34
flooded area with A34
A34 A34 mitig.
flooded area with A0
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0.150.070.010.850.16downstr. envir.
hydropower
irrigation
upstr.envir.
lake flood
0.700.800.660.150.83
0.590.750.860.000.61
0.480.160.140.670.26
0.660.700.550.220.12
A54…A4A2A1A0
AlternativesIn
de
xes
Value matrix
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A0 A0
Pareto Race
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A0 A26
excessive loss in irrigation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A36 A26
going on ...
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A36 A34
reasonable alternative
A0 no actions
significant losses MITIGATE!
A set of Reasonable Alternatives is
obtainedA set of Reasonable Alternatives is
obtained“By knowing the positions of stakeholders a competent authority can choose the best compromise solution”WFD CIS GD 11
“By knowing the positions of stakeholders a competent authority can choose the best compromise solution”WFD CIS GD 11
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MO
DS
S
6. Comparison or negotiation
reasonable alternatives
2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing alternatives
4. Estimating effects
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
5. Evaluation
noMitigation and
compensation
Agreement? yes
Final (political) decision
Problem formulationSetting the goal and identifying the
constraints
Designing alternatives/options
Selecting the best compromise alternative
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MO
DS
S
6. Comparison or negotiation
reasonable alternatives
2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing alternatives
4. Estimating effects
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
5. Evaluation
noMitigation and
compensation
Agreement? yes
Final (political) decision
Tw
oLe
Daily management
Planning
Management
Tw
oLe/P
TwoLe/M
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planning
management
analyst DM
stakeholders
DMusers
operational control
models and policies
release decision
TwoLe/P
TwoLe/M
TwoLe: a 2 level MODSS
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MO
DS
S
6. Comparison or negotiation
reasonable alternatives
2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing alternatives
4. Estimating effects
Sta
keh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
5. Evaluation
noMitigation and
compensation
Agreement? yes
Final (political) decision
Tw
oLe
on th
e W
eb
To sup
port t
rans
paren
cy, f
orum
, etc
but n
ot in
terv
iews an
d neg
otia
tions
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Data Bases
Models Stakeholders
Decision-makers
Distributed participation
PIP procedure
TwoLe
toolboxes
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Readings
IPWRM.Theory Ch. 1
IPWRM.Practice Ch. 3