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Local Economic Assessment
March 2011
Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Purpose ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Legislative Background ............................................................................................................ 1 1.3 Government Guidance............................................................................................................. 1 1.4 Core Evidence Base .................................................................................................................. 2 1.5 Consultation ............................................................................................................................. 2 1.6 Future Use and Monitoring...................................................................................................... 3
Chapter 2: Setting the Scene ................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 The Redbridge Economy in Perspective.................................................................................. 5 2.2 A Globalised City ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Regional Economic Structure .................................................................................................. 7 2.4 Outer London Issues ................................................................................................................ 9 2.5 Redbridge in its London Context............................................................................................. 9
Chapter 3: Redbridge Now..................................................................................................................... 17 3.1 Strong Population Growth..................................................................................................... 17 3.2 Housing................................................................................................................................... 18 3.3 Where Redbridge Residents Work ......................................................................................... 20 3.4 Industries Where People Work in Redbridge ........................................................................ 23 3.5 Business Investment and Growth .......................................................................................... 27 3.6 Barriers to Business Success................................................................................................... 31 3.7 Worklessness Assessment ...................................................................................................... 32 3.8 Economic Growth and the Environment............................................................................... 39
Chapter 4: Shaping the Future Economy .............................................................................................. 45 4.1 Continuous Change ............................................................................................................... 45 4.2 Recovery from the Recession................................................................................................. 45 4.3 Competition within the Sub-region ...................................................................................... 45 4.4 2012 Olympics ........................................................................................................................ 47 4.5 Crossrail................................................................................................................................... 47 4.6 Sustainable Economic Growth............................................................................................... 48 4.7 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats ............................................................. 57
Chapter 5: Consultation ......................................................................................................................... 59 5.1. Background .................................................................................................................................. 59 5.2. Early Stakeholder Engagement................................................................................................... 59 5.3. Formal Consultation .................................................................................................................... 60 5.4. Other Consultation Responses.................................................................................................... 61 5.5. Case Study: Motoraid, Hainault Business Park............................................................................ 61 5.6. Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 62
Chapter 6: Policy Directions ................................................................................................................... 63 6.1 A Dormitory Borough ............................................................................................................. 63 6.2 The Council’s Role .................................................................................................................. 63 6.3 Policy Responses .................................................................................................................... 64
Appendix 1: Core Evidence to be used for all London LEAs ................................................................. 67 Appendix 2: Business Consultation Survey ........................................................................................... 68 Appendix 3: Business Consultation Survey Results .............................................................................. 74
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Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Purpose
1.1.1 This Local Economic Assessment (LEA) has been prepared to meet the Council’s duty under Section 69 of the Local Democracy Economic Development and Construction Act 2009. Its purpose is to provide a solid base of evidence and analysis about economic conditions in Redbridge to help the Council and its partners better target their work to promote economic growth and prosperity.
1.2 Legislative Background
1.2.1 Section 69(1) of the Local Democracy Economic Development and Construction Act 2009 requires the Council “to prepare an assessment of the economic conditions in its area”. In preparing the assessment the Council must consult people that it considers appropriate (S.69(4)) and have regard to any guidance issued by the Secretary of State (S.69(6)).
1.3 Government Guidance
1.3.1 Draft Government guidance was issued in August 2009. It says (para 7.2) that the primary purpose of preparing an LEA is to inform the Council’s Sustainable Community Strategy and through it, the Local Area Agreement and the work of Local Strategic Partnerships. It should also inform other local plans such as Local Development Frameworks, transport plans and housing strategies and the work of independent inspectors undertaking Comprehensive Area Assessments. 1.3.2 The main objectives for LEAs are that they should:
Provide a sound assessment of economic conditions in the area and how they affect residents and businesses.
Identify the comparative strengths and weaknesses of the local economy and the nature and form of local economic challenges and opportunities.
Identify the local economic geography, including the economic linkages between the area being assessed and the wider economy.
Identify the local constraints to economic growth and employment and the risks to delivering sustainable economic growth.
1.3.3 In preparing its assessment, the Council’s LEA should in some form address the following themes:
Business and Enterprise Structure of local economy Overall economic competitiveness of area Enterprise and Innovation Business Needs
People and Communities
Labour market Skills Economic inclusion
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Sustainable Economic Growth
Environmental sustainability Housing and infrastructure
1.3.4 The Guidance also says that LEAs should contain an assessment of worklessness and where possible
include an assessment of child poverty in accordance with Section 21 of the Child Poverty Bill.
1.3.5 In preparing their LEAs London boroughs should take account of the London Plan and the Mayor of London’s strategies for economic development and transport. In this context, the Mayor of London’s Economic Development Strategy (EDS) is the key document which provides part of the basis for spatial policies in the draft replacement London Plan. Its five objectives are to:
To promote London as a city that excels as a world capital of business. To ensure that London has the most competitive business environment in the world. To drive London’s transition to a low carbon economy and maximize the economic opportunities
that this creates. To give all Londoners the opportunity to take part in London’s economic success, access
sustainable employment and progress in their careers. To maximise the benefits to London from investment to support growth and regeneration, and
from the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and its legacy.
1.3.6 The EDS is referred to further in the next chapter and information is drawn from it about how Redbridge fits within the wider London economy. The mayor’s Transport Strategy is also referenced.
1.4 Core Evidence Base
1.4.1 While the Government has not prescribed any particular approach for undertaking an LEA, the guidance says that local authorities in a region should take a “broadly consistent” approach. A “structured regional dialogue” is recommended in which partners should agree a common basis of core data to be collected and analysed.
1.4.2 To this end the Greater London Authority, London Development Agency, the boroughs, sub-regional partnerships and London Councils have signed a Memorandum of Understanding setting out their respective responsibilities and identifying a minimum core data set which will be used for all LEAs in London (see Appendix 1). In addition, this LEA draws upon other types of data relevant to Redbridge.
1.5 Consultation
1.5.1 The views of local businesses were sought during the preparation of the draft LEA. In particular, a survey of Redbridge businesses was carried out between 1 December 2010 and 12 January 2011.
1.5.2 The Draft Local Economic Assessment is subject to full consultation. Any comments on the document should be sent to:
Local Economic Assessment – Business Survey Freepost RLSR-JACE-HSUG London Borough of Redbridge PO Box 2 Town Hall 128-142 High Road
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Ilford IG1 1DD Email: [email protected] If you are a Business Owner or have a Business Interest in Redbridge, please also see the online business consultation survey http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/lbrbusinesssurvey2010.
1.6 Future Use and Monitoring
1.6.1 Monitoring of the key economic issues identified in this LEA will be carried out as part of the Redbridge LDF Annual Monitoring Report which the Council publishes no later than December each year. This will keep the relevance of the LEA under review and recommend any future revision as necessary.
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Chapter 2: Setting the Scene
2.1 The Redbridge Economy in Perspective
2.1.1 Most definitions of “the economy” refer to the way goods and services are produced, distributed and consumed in a given area, but Redbridge is a political entity, not an economic one. Modern economies show little respect for political boundaries and economists often talk about “functional economic market areas” which do not necessarily adhere to administrative boundaries. Instead, these areas correspond to sub-regions or city-regions and are typically identified by travel to work patterns or housing markets1.
2.1.2 In order to explain economic conditions in Redbridge it is necessary to look beyond the borough. We
must understand the role played by Redbridge in the wider pattern of production and consumption across London and the global economic pressures on London itself.
2.2 A Globalised City
2.2.1 Redbridge is a London borough and for centuries, London’s economy has relied on its global linkages – first as a centre of mercantile trade, then as a hub of industrial activity and manufactured exports. As traditional manufacturing moved out of the capital (and often out of the UK), London has been transformed into a world leading centre for the less tangible exports of financial and business services and tourism2. This trend is often linked with the growth of the so-called “knowledge economy” and is expected to continue (see Figure 1).
2.2.2 In 1971 there were over 1 million manufacturing jobs in London, accounting for nearly one quarter of all jobs. Today manufacturing accounts for about 225,000 jobs (less than 5% of total jobs) and this is expected to decline to just 90,000 by 20313.
2.2.3 Meanwhile, jobs in financial and business services are expected to grow from 1.56 million in 2007 to 1.98 million in 2031 (about 38% of all new jobs). This is projected to be followed by 360,000 new jobs in leisure and personal services and another 235,000 new jobs in hotels and restaurants. There will be smaller contributions from the education and health sectors (54,000 jobs) and retailing (36,000 jobs).4
1 Functional Economic Market Areas: An economic note. CLG, February 2010. Section 4. 2 Tourism is considered as an export industry in that it generates foreign income from international visitors. 3 Draft Economic Development Strategy. Mayor of London. October 2009. Para A.39. 4 Ibid.
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Figure 1: Employment Projections for London by Sector to 20315
2.2.4 London’s contemporary economic success relies on its historic connections with the world, good transport and communications infrastructure, strong legal and regulatory institutions and its ability to attract skilled knowledge workers. New York and Tokyo are its only serious competitors for the position of world leading financial centre, but that will change because the world economic balance of power is shifting rapidly.
2.2.5 Between 2009 and 2050 the GDP of the G206 nations is expected to grow from US$38.3 trillion to US$160 trillion in real dollar terms. Over 60% of this expansion is expected to come from Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia and Mexico7.
2.2.6 By that time China, India and the United States will have a total GDP 70% greater than all the other G20 nations combined8. Europe’s total share of G20 GPD will shrink from 24% in 2009 to 10% in 2050. The UK’s share will fall from 6% to 3% (see Table 1 below). Traditional Western powers like the UK will remain the wealthiest nations in terms of per capita income, but will be overtaken by poorer countries as the pre-eminent world economies.
2.2.7 In these circumstances, London is likely to become just one of many major international financial centres and will be in danger of being overtaken by cities like Shanghai and Mumbai which are located at foci of growth in eastern and southern Asia. Competition will be intense as the new international centres move up the technological ladder and London seeks to keep one step ahead.
5 Source: GLA Economics 6 The Group of Twenty (G-20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors was established in 1999 to bring together the major industrialized and developing economies to discuss key issues in the global economy. 7 The World Order in 2050. Carnegie Institute. February 2010, page 8. 8 Ibid. Page 9.
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Table 1: GDP Projections for the G20 Countries9
2.2.8 The UK economy’s overall competitiveness has suffered in recent years. The World Economic Forum rated it the world’s second most competitive economy in 2006/07, but its performance has slipped in each subsequent year to thirteenth place in 2009/1010.
2.2.9 As the UK recovers from the global recession, re-establishing its competitive edge will be critical and London’s economy will need to lead the way. Only 12% of the UK population lives in London, but the capital accounts for 21% of Gross Value Added11.
2.2.10 Some of the biggest factors involved in the UK’s recent loss of competitiveness are also centred on London. In 2009/10 the World Economic Forum rated the soundness of the UK’s banks as having dropped to 126th place among 133 countries surveyed. UK banks were in 44th spot just the previous year.
2.3 Regional Economic Structure
2.3.1 London’s economy is intimately connected to the East and South East England Regions. Together, these three regions account for 44% of the UK’s output12. The “mega city” region centred on London contains 24 million people and commuters from outside the capital fill almost one in five of the city’s jobs13. Essex and Kent to the east of London tend to have the smallest local employment bases and the strongest flows of commuters into London.
9 Source: The World Order in 2050. Carnegie Institute, February 2010. Page 8. 10 World Economic Forum. Global Competitiveness Reports for 2006/07, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2009/10. Country rankings. 11 Draft Economic Development Strategy. Mayor of London. October 2009. Para A.10. 12 Ibid. Para 2.29. 13 Draft Transport Strategy. Mayor of London, October 2009. Pages 43 and 44.
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2.3.2 As an outer east London borough Redbridge is connected via the M11 to the economic corridor
stretching north to Stansted airport, Cambridge and beyond, and via road and main line rail to Chelmsford and other large centres in southern Essex and along the northern coast of the Thames Estuary.
2.3.3 Major investment is taking place in two housing growth corridors which impact directly or indirectly on Redbridge:
The Thames Gateway Growth Corridor. The London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough Corridor.
2.3.4 Like its transport system, London’s economy is radially structured. Central London is the economic
heart with the best transport accessibility and hosts the headquarters of numerous multinational firms. It is home to one third of all jobs in the capital and has the highest levels of productivity in the country. Office floorspace is projected to increase strongly in the long-term14.
2.3.5 Outside the central area, London’s economy is based around its 11 Metropolitan Centres with a 12th such centre proposed at Shepherd’s Bush (Redbridge is represented by Ilford) and other major nodes of employment such as Heathrow. Lower level Major, District and Local Centres complete the hierarchy.
Figure 2: Places which are Dominant in the London Economy15
14 Ibid. Para 5.17. 15 Source: Draft Transport Strategy. Mayor of London, October 2009. Page 46.
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2.4 Outer London Issues
2.4.1 Despite the economic weight of central London, the 19 boroughs making up outer London still account for 42% of the city’s jobs and 36% of its economic output, but jobs growth has been far slower and large numbers of workers commute to jobs in central London. Part of the reason for this is that outer London was disproportionately hit by the steep fall in manufacturing employment, but has been a less attractive focus for investment in financial and professional services. There has been a decreasing requirement for office floorspace in outer London16.
2.4.2 Recent employment projections suggest a turn-around with an 11% increase in outer London jobs over the next 20 years, with 71% of these being office based17. The 2009 London Office Policy Review projected office based employment and floorspace demand growth from 2011 to 2031 as shown below: Table 2: Office Employment and Floorspace Projections18
Office based employment growth
Location
Total % of total growth
Net demand for office floorspace (million m2)
Outer London 59,000 20 0.71 Inner London 67,000 22 0.80 Central Activity Zone and North of the Isle of Dogs
177,000 58 2.12
London Total 303,000 100 3.6
2.4.3 There is also projected to be a need for between 450,000 m2 and 700,000 m2 of additional comparison retail floorspace in outer London and between 50,000 m2 and 150,000 m2 of convenience retail floorspace19. Industrial employment is expected to continue its historic decline. As discussed in Chapter 4, the new development will not be spread evenly, but is likely to cluster in a handful of large outer London town centres such as Stratford.
2.5 Redbridge in its London Context
2.5.1 Sub-regional Linkages Redbridge is an outer London borough forming part of the North East London Sub-Region as defined in the London Plan20. This also includes the boroughs of Waltham Forest, Havering, Barking and Dagenham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and the City of London as shown in Figure 3 below.
16 Outer London: Issues for the London Plan. Mayor of London. May 2007. Paras 1.16 and 1.17. 17 Ibid. Paras 1.20 and 1.21. 18 Source: Minor Alteration to Draft Replacement London Plan. Mayor of London, December 2009. Page 11. 19 Outer London: Issues for the London Plan. Mayor of London. May 2007. Para 1.29. 20 Note: The draft replacement London Plan proposes to place Redbridge in a new East London sub-region which would include the boroughs of Greenwich and Lewisham south of the River Thames.
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Figure 3
2.5.2 Figure 4 shows the top 10 places of work for employed Redbridge residents at the time of the 2001 census. Along with Redbridge itself, these destinations accounted for 82% of all Redbridge employees (105,789) in 2001. It is evident from the table that boroughs towards central London were more important sources of jobs than immediate neighbours. While Epping Forest adjoins Redbridge to the north, this local authority did not even make the top 10 list of non-Redbridge workplace destinations with only 2,329 Redbridge residents working there.
Figure 421
Top places of work for Redbridge residents 2001
4,662 3,800
8,206
2,347 3,009 3,1016,032
37,634
6,9245,444
8,116
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Barking
and
Dag
enha
m
Camde
n
City of L
ondo
n
Hackn
ey
Haver
ing
Islin
gton
Newha
m
Redbridge
Tower H
amlets
Waltham
Fores
t
Wes
tminster
Num
ber
of em
plo
yees
21 Source: ONS 2001 Census (via NOMIS)
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2.5.3 The above table is for Redbridge, but workplace destinations for other outer London locations display similar patterns (see Figure 5 below). This shows how the sub-regional economy is dominated by radial flows of labour between the outer boroughs and central London, facilitated by good mainline rail and underground and road links. The transport network closely mirrors the economic linkages. Via these links, Redbridge and its neighbouring boroughs provide an important supply of labour to central London.
Figure 522: Commuting Patterns 2001
Chapel End Romford
Stratford Beckton
2.5.4 The Table below shows the origin and destination of trips made by Redbridge residents. The data shows nearly half of all journeys in Redbridge are made within the borough and more than a quarter of trips with an origin or destination in Redbridge are between other East London boroughs.
22 Source: ONS 2001 Census
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Source: London Travel demand survey 2006/09
2.5.5 The benefits of out-working
If we examine just the financial services sector, the central and inner London boroughs stand out much more strongly. In fact these boroughs together employ more than twice as many Redbridge residents in financial services, than does Redbridge itself as shown in Figure 6 below. Figure 623
Redbridge residents employed in financial intermediation, real estate, renting & business activities 2001
9281387
6306
550 5391230
886
6609
2418
691
2712
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Barkin
g an
d Dag
enha
m
Camden
City o
f Lon
don
Hackne
y
Haverin
g
Isling
ton
Newham
Redbrid
ge
Tower
Ham
lets
Walth
am For
est
Westm
inste
r
Local Authority
Nu
mb
er o
f em
plo
yees
23 Source: ONS 2001 Census (via NOMIS)
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2.5.6 Table 3 below shows the weekly pay of people who work in selected boroughs versus the weekly pay of those who reside there. This reveals that the average pay of people who work in the City of London, Tower Hamlets and Newham is greater than the pay of people who reside there. The situation reverses for the outer London boroughs of Havering, Redbridge and Waltham Forest. This suggests that the outer London boroughs are benefiting by having many residents who commute to better paying jobs in central London. Table 3: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings24 Borough Median weekly full time pay
(£) of people who reside in borough (2009)
Median weekly full-time pay (£) people who work in borough (2009)
Barking and Dagenham
526.1 506.5
City of London 773.3 912.7 Havering 580.4 522.9 Newham 491.8 588.8 Redbridge 608.2 600.6 Tower Hamlets 654.2 831.6 Waltham Forest
542.3 531.9
2.5.7 The overall scale and productivity of central London’s economy and that of a range of east London
boroughs is illustrated in Table 4 below. Table 4: Economic Scale and Productivity25 Area Economic Scale
(UK = 100) 2006 Productivity Score (UK = 100) 2006
Barking & Dagenham 71.89 93.17 Bexley 102.77 87.24 Greenwich 107.85 89.26 Hackney 149.18 147.36 Havering 111.18 86.81 Lewisham 112.11 131.40 London City 821.18 388.63 Newham 132.29 139.34 Redbridge 107.87 88.45 Tower Hamlets 382.47 178.79 London East 244.06 117.07 Greater London 199.63 156.35 United Kingdom 100.00 100.00
2.5.8 In scale, the Redbridge economy is larger than the UK local authority average of 100 shown in Table 4. It is much smaller than the east London average, but this figure is distorted by the contribution of the City of London and Tower Hamlets. The Redbridge economy is of a similar scale to its near neighbours and in common with other boroughs outside inner London, it has relatively low productivity. The borough’s main town centre – Ilford – is one of a number of competing retail hubs to the east of London which include other recognised town centres such as Romford, Stratford and Barking and major shopping malls such as Bluewater and Lakeside.
2.5.9 Internationalised centre and self-contained periphery
24 Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (via NOMIS) 25 Source: Place Profile (Redbridge). Local Futures, April 2010. Page 2.
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Central London’s economy is heavily internationalised and highly productive and the outer London boroughs engage with it by supplying skilled labour. When it comes to labour markets, there are no self-contained boroughs or sub-regional labour markets in London26.
2.5.10 Other aspects of the “local” economies of Redbridge and its neighbours are more self-contained.
According to the LDA (see Figure 7 below), firms in Redbridge, Havering, Barking and Dagenham, Newham and Waltham Forest make 47% of their sales within their host borough and 80% of sales within London. They source 25% of supplies from within their host borough and 58% from within London.
2.5.11 These findings are broadly consistent with the Redbridge Business Survey conducted in 2006. This recorded 45% of sales turnover being generated within the borough and a further 36% elsewhere in London. A total of 76% of the cost of supplies was derived from within Redbridge or the remainder of London. Only about 3% or less of total purchases or sales by Redbridge businesses were made internationally27. Figure 7: Sales and Purchasing Geography for Redbridge and Adjoining Boroughs28
2.5.12 With the exception of Stratford, the office market in east London is also quite marginal to the inner
London market29. There has been a falling requirement for office space in outer London recently. Only one tenth of new office construction was outside central London in 2006 and most of that was in the west30.
2.5.13 Falling job density “Job density” is the number of full time jobs in an area divided by the resident working age population. Reflecting the decline of their traditional manufacturing base and their limited ability to attract office development, there has been a tendency over time for the job density of all the outer
26 Functional Economic Market Areas: An economic note. CLG, February 2010. Page 5. 27 Redbridge Business Survey 2006. BMG Research. Pages 9 & 10. 28 Source: Sources of Endogenous Growth in Outer London: A Case Study for North East London, LDA September 2009. Page 12. 29 London Office Policy Review. Radimus Consulting Limited and Roger Tym and Partners, November 2009. Page V1. 30 Outer London: Issues for the London Plan. Mayor of London, May 2007. Page 12.
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boroughs31 to decline, while that of Tower Hamlets has increased. The very high job density of the City of London is also apparent in Table 5 below, although even here there has been a decrease over time.
The low job density figure in Redbridge may subsequently impact the numbers of both commuting and workless individuals living in the borough32.
Table 5 Job density evolution in North-East London and City of London33
Year Barking and Dagenham
City of London
Havering Newham Redbridge Tower Hamlets
Waltham Forest
Job Density (Number of jobs per working age resident)
2000 0.58 68.91 0.66 0.51 0.55 1.18 0.51 2001 0.54 60.61 0.66 0.50 0.54 1.24 0.47 2002 0.51 60.97 0.68 0.45 0.53 1.14 0.48 2003 0.54 62.18 0.68 0.46 0.54 1.16 0.48 2004 0.53 57.67 0.68 0.48 0.54 1.34 0.48 2005 0.52 58.77 0.65 0.51 0.53 1.36 0.52 2006 0.50 57.33 0.63 0.48 0.46 1.36 0.47 2007 0.51 57.72 0.60 0.48 0.49 1.39 0.46 Change 2000 to 2007 - 0.07 - 11.19 - 0.06 - 0.03 - 0.06 + 0.21 - 0.05
2.5.14 The change in absolute numbers of jobs in each local authority between 1998 and 2008 is shown in Table 6 below. Because of population growth, some local authorities including Redbridge have had an increase in absolute numbers of jobs, despite the fall in job density. Table 634 Change in absolute number of jobs 1998-2008
Local Authority Number of employees
1998 2008
Barking and Dagenham 54,896 45,496 City of London 288,375 311,831 Havering 72,445 71,267 Newham 61,849 69,858 Redbridge 63,747 69,079 Tower Hamlets 123,158 203,989 Waltham Forest 57,175 56,299
31 For current purposes Newham is being treated as an “outer” London borough. 32 Outer London – Economic data and statistics, Greater London Authority, March 2009 33 Source: ONS Employee Job Estimates/Job Density (VIA NOMIS). 34 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey (via NOMIS).
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Chapter 3: Redbridge Now
3.1 Strong Population Growth
3.1.1 In May 2010, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released revised mid-2008 population estimates for local authorities in England and Wales. The revisions are claimed to result from improved models for estimating internal and international migration. The Redbridge population estimate was revised upwards by 6,200 people to a total of 263,80035.
3.1.2 This represents an increase of 25,000 people (or about 10.5%) in just 7 years since the 2001 Census. It is consistent with the large recorded increase of 27% in the live birth rate in Redbridge between 2000/01 and 2007/08. By comparison, the birth rate in London increased by 20.5% and nationally by 16.8% over the same period36.
3.1.3 In 2004 when work started on the Redbridge Local Development Framework, the ONS projected the borough’s population would reach 266,000 by 2017. The latest estimates suggest that figure was almost reached by mid-2008 and may have been surpassed by now.
3.1.4 The GLA also makes “high” and “low” end population projections which take account of the actual rate of housing construction in each borough. The “high” projection is for the population to hit 268,400 by 2016 and 283,400 by 2031. The “low” projection has the population reaching 265,300 in 2016 and 274,000 by 203137. These figures are challenged by the ONS revisions. The 2011 census should clarify the position, but at this stage it appears that population growth may be substantially outstripping expectations, posing a major challenge for future housing and community infrastructure delivery.
3.1.5 By further analysing these population projections, it is evident that growth is expected to occur in all age categories. Figure 8 shows that under 14s will see a small but significant rise which is likely to lead to increased demand on school places and other local authority support services. Of greater significance is the population growth in the over 60 age category. The dependency of these individuals on local authority services may lead to a greater strain on provision, particularly within the current economic climate and expected public sector cutbacks. These individuals will also begin to leave the labour market as they reach retirement age, which will have a significant effect on the local economy, with dependency both on economically active individuals and on local authority services.
35 Mid-Year Population Estimates for England and Wales. ONS 13 May 2010. Table 8 –Local Authorities. 36 Redbridge Community Infrastructure Plan. London Borough of Redbridge, December 2009. S.3.1.2.2. 37 GLA 2008 Round Demographic Projections. March 2009.
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Figure 8: Population Projection38
Population projection by age
52.2
162.5
43.954.9
164.9
44.4
56.2
173.2
54.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0-14 15-59 60+
Age
Nu
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er o
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eop
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tho
usa
nd
s)
2011
2016
2031
3.2 Housing 3.2.1 As noted in the previous chapter, economic growth within Redbridge is led by housing and around
75% of the housing stock in Redbridge is owner occupied. This compares with a London average of 58% and a national one of 70%. In some wards the rate is nearly 80%, while in Valentine ward it drops to a low of 59.5%.
3.2.2 The 2001 Census revealed that the average household size was 2.56 people and that a large number
of properties in the borough are under-occupied. For example approximately 65% of households had 5 or more habitable rooms at their disposal, yet only 11% of households contain 5 or more people. The average size of households with 5 or more habitable rooms was 2.89 people - only slightly above the borough average. This mismatch helps account for the fact that new housing construction is dominated by smaller units as shown in Table 7 below:
Table 739 - Redbridge Housing Completions by Number of Bedrooms 2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08
Bedrooms
Studio Flat
1 2 3 4 5+
Assumed number of Habitable rooms
1 2 3 or 4 4+ >5 >5
Flats 41 895 1825 66 7 0 Homes 0 2 143 261 146 5 Total 41 897 1968 327 153 5 % of Total 1.2 26.4 58.0 9.6 4.5 0.1
38 GLA 2008 Round Demographic Projections. March 2009 39 Source: Community Infrastructure Plan. London Borough of Redbridge, December 2009. Appendix 1.
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3.2.3 At the peak of the last housing boom in April 2008, the average price of a home in Redbridge was £312,309. By June 2009 it had fallen to a low of £261,037 and then recovered to £283,233 by March 2010, before falling slightly in April40. At that point it still remained above the average price of a home in Barking and Dagenham (£213,777), Havering (£256,611), Newham (£221,403) and Waltham Forest (£241,338). Getting started on the housing ladder remains beyond the reach of many people in Redbridge. Figure 9: House Price and Sales Volume in Redbridge March 2008 to April 201041
3.2.4 The 2006 Redbridge Housing Needs and Requirements Study identified a total requirement of 4,995
affordable homes over the next 5 years. Of this, the intermediate housing requirement was 2,037 homes, whilst the affordable rented accommodation requirement was 2,958 homes.
3.2.5 Table 8 below shows the decline in land values in Redbridge which began in 2007 and accelerated with the global financial meltdown of October 2008: Table 842 - Redbridge Residential Land Values Type of Land January
2007 (£/hectare)
July 2008 (£/hectare)
January 2009 (£/hectare)
July 2009 (£/hectare)
Small sites for less than 5 houses.
6,200,000 5,850,000 4,550,000 4,095,000
Bulk land sites in excess of 2 hectares.
5,225,000 4,800,000 3,950,000 3,555,000
Sites for flats or maisonettes.
6,725,000 5,340,000 4,950,000 4,455,000
40 Source: Land Registry Housing Price Index Report March 2008 to April 2010. 41 Source: CIL Viability Assessment, June 2010 42 Property Market Report, Valuation Office Agency, January 2007, July 2008, January 2009, July 2009.
20
3.2.6 Findings of the CIL Viability Assessment taken in 201043 show that provision of an adequate
infrastructure funding regime via the Community Infrastructure Levy (or any other version preferred by the new Government) is clearly an important issue in the London Borough of Redbridge but at the same time, encouraging greater private sector activity will also be necessary if the Council’s delivery targets and affordable housing policy requirements are to be met.
3.3 Where Redbridge Residents Work
3.3.1 In 2009 some 67.9% of working age residents were employed (about 11% were self-employed and 57% worked for someone else) and 6.7% were unemployed. Employment rates were higher for men (76.9%) than for women (58.2%) and the rate for ethnic minorities was 63.7%. About two thirds of all employed Redbridge residents work outside the borough. The current pattern of employment in Redbridge by broad industry group is shown below:
Figure 10: Industries and Work places in Redbridge44 (2008)
Employee jobs by industry
2,400 3,100
15,700
7,900
12,700
23,700
3,4004,800
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Man
ufac
turin
g
Constru
ction
Distribu
tion, hotels &
restau
rants
Tran
sport &
com
mun
icatio
ns
Fina
nce, IT
, other bus
ines
s ac
tivities
Public
adm
in, e
duca
tion & h
ealth
Other
service
s
Tour
ism-re
lated†
Num
ber
of em
plo
yees
3.3.2 The largest numbers of residents work in the public administration, education and health sectors. However, it is important to note that expected public sector cuts, particularly in public administration and health, are likely to have a significant impact on this figure. The Local authority in particular, employs over 9,000 individuals. As a result of this, there may be greater pressure placed on other sectors to employ those made redundant as a result of public sector cuts.
3.3.3 Table 9 below shows the employee jobs by industry, broken down by ward in 2008. The largest labour market is Clementswood ward, which is dominated by public sector employment. This is followed by Valentines, Seven Kings and Newbury. Due to the fact that significant numbers of the Redbridge workforce are employed in public administration, education and health industries, the impending public sector cuts are likely to have a notable impact across the borough, but particularly
43 Source: CIL Viability Assessment, June 2010 44 Source: ONS Local Area Labour Force Survey (via NOMIS)
21
in the wards of Clementswood, Seven Kings and Newbury, where the largest numbers are employed within the public sector. Table 9: Employee by industry per ward 200845
Industry Ward A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S Total Aldborough 0 0 42 0 1 102 1,010 78 197 67 20 9 68 95 163 587 844 46 40 3,369 Barkingside 0 0 39 0 0 129 373 31 362 66 26 31 146 67 0 492 353 62 182 2,359 Bridge 0 2 46 0 1 432 202 20 236 63 22 21 63 69 50 193 75 12 135 1,642 Chadwell 3 0 110 0 1 122 280 55 147 38 39 8 43 33 368 661 343 42 36 2,329 Church End 0 0 27 0 0 83 964 222 302 142 214 80 277 372 0 305 250 60 118 3,416 Clayhall 1 0 80 10 0 117 1,047 198 134 83 11 55 132 227 0 762 391 26 79 3,353 Clements-wood 0 0 124 0 7 247 1,755 4,956 703 254 259 117 252 848 2,607 243 570 247 77 13,266 Cranbrook 2 0 25 0 0 87 208 15 158 62 46 34 202 333 403 324 268 26 46 2,239 Fairlop 0 0 298 0 3 121 514 366 171 41 74 38 98 219 36 496 697 444 76 3,692 Fullwell 0 0 28 0 0 97 328 13 220 36 78 22 41 90 9 479 133 52 26 1,652 Goodmayes 0 0 37 0 1 281 223 8 68 37 28 20 99 86 8 135 214 20 58 1,323 Hainault 0 0 722 0 0 532 481 79 63 53 19 63 75 121 2 380 129 87 119 2,925 Loxford 0 0 25 0 0 116 558 134 86 395 180 9 69 492 21 298 816 30 57 3,286 Mayfield 0 0 19 0 3 55 135 360 63 31 3 9 64 32 10 392 137 23 36 1,372 Monkhams 1 0 42 85 0 100 346 182 239 134 61 68 202 132 56 634 453 52 74 2,861 Newbury 0 0 29 0 122 198 281 41 121 69 27 25 133 909 730 760 946 40 95 4,526 Roding 0 4 173 0 10 119 341 123 133 69 11 57 102 215 0 404 67 22 37 1,887 Seven Kings 0 0 24 0 0 121 855 53 209 50 20 29 94 467 0 394 2,537 27 34 4,914 Snaresbrook 0 0 82 1 0 109 293 19 286 224 63 55 294 129 116 283 352 43 123 2,472 Valentines 1 0 184 0 6 77 1,169 20 261 170 87 176 325 1,677 148 406 289 26 172 5,194 Wanstead 0 0 9 0 0 84 85 28 29 59 1 17 98 57 0 373 39 78 34 991 Column Total 8 6 2,165 96 155 3,329 11,448 7,001 4,188 2,143 1,289 943 2,877 6,670 4,727 9,001 9,903 1,465 1,654 69,068
Legend: A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B: Mining and quarrying, C: Manufacturing, D: Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E: Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F: Construction, G: Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H: Transportation and storage, I: Accommodation and food service activities, J: Information and communication, K: Financial and insurance activities, L: Real estate activities, M: Professional, scientific and technical activities, N: Administrative and support service activities, O: Public administration and defence; compulsory social security, P: Education, Q: Human health and social work activities, R Arts, entertainment and recreation, S: Other service activities.
3.3.4 Table 10 below shows the percentage of employed residents of each ward who work in Redbridge and the other 10 most significant boroughs. It also shows the total percentage in each ward who work inside the orbit of Redbridge (i.e. in the City of London, Tower Hamlets, Camden, Islington, Hackney, Westminster or Newham).
45 Source: ONS: Annual Business Inquiry Employee Analysis SIC 2007
22
Table 10 Employment rate by wards46
War
d
Bar
kin
g
&
Dag
enh
am
Cam
den
Cit
y
Hac
kney
Hav
erin
g
Islin
gto
n
New
ham
Red
bri
dg
e
Tow
er
Ham
lets
Wal
tham
Fo
rest
Wes
tmin
ster
Tota
l in
ner
b
oro
ug
hs
Aldborough 4.51 2.58 7.86 1.64 3.22 3.08 4.78 41.22 5.56 3.98 7.84 33.34Barkingside 3.52 3.81 6.70 2.75 2.34 3.05 5.29 40.31 6.43 4.80 8.71 36.73Bridge 1.70 3.61 8.00 2.12 1.27 2.91 2.86 34.11 6.36 9.51 8.66 34.51Chadwell 8.97 2.68 9.26 1.60 7.03 2.42 6.07 36.26 5.30 2.46 6.21 33.54Church End 1.83 4.66 9.86 2.64 1.37 3.08 3.79 29.21 6.43 10.12 10.60 41.06Clayhall 2.97 2.75 7.00 2.03 2.44 3.08 5.22 39.40 7.46 5.11 7.97 35.51Clementswood 7.06 2.91 5.21 2.33 3.16 2.78 8.22 38.78 6.80 2.63 6.48 34.73Cranbrook 4.37 4.08 8.50 2.47 2.53 3.67 6.94 34.61 6.07 3.93 8.17 39.86Fairlop 3.28 3.45 7.05 1.56 3.20 2.97 4.62 41.10 6.40 4.68 5.68 31.73Fullwell 3.15 3.17 6.62 2.66 2.74 2.21 4.55 43.24 5.43 5.65 5.86 30.50Goodmayes 7.76 3.64 8.51 2.01 4.64 3.54 7.61 33.44 6.53 2.41 7.08 38.92Hainault 3.64 2.84 5.49 1.57 4.37 2.56 4.37 37.81 5.87 6.07 6.35 29.04Loxford 8.32 3.19 5.78 3.00 3.44 2.81 7.21 34.65 6.92 2.75 7.76 36.68Mayfield 10.14 2.33 7.16 1.93 3.71 2.50 9.40 35.13 7.26 2.64 5.83 36.41Monkhams 0.71 4.02 10.38 2.18 1.16 2.55 2.68 31.49 7.13 8.82 8.41 37.36Newbury 5.30 3.55 7.13 1.74 3.22 3.18 6.89 39.23 5.99 3.55 6.98 35.46Roding 1.95 4.53 9.30 2.58 1.40 2.71 3.64 32.06 6.74 8.39 9.01 38.56Seven Kings 7.10 3.01 6.21 2.16 4.10 2.70 6.85 38.90 6.92 2.30 6.73 34.58Snaresbrook 1.87 5.82 11.18 3.08 1.59 3.64 4.54 26.05 7.88 8.23 11.33 47.46Valentines 4.67 3.93 7.98 1.96 3.27 4.09 7.04 34.85 7.47 3.13 8.17 40.65Wanstead 2.39 4.34 8.40 2.50 1.28 3.44 8.95 30.37 7.87 7.27 8.39 43.89
3.3.5 Table 11 below ranks each ward according to the total percentage of employed residents working
inside the orbit of Redbridge and according to the percentage of residents with a higher qualification (degree level or above). It also ranks each ward according to its overall score on the Indices of Multiple Deprivation (2007) and number of Job Seeker Allowance claimants as at February 2010. (Note, the number of JSA claimants is not the same as the unemployment rate, but is a good surrogate measure for it).
46 Source: ONS Census 2001 (via NOMIS)
23
Table 11: Employment statistics by Wards
Ward
% who work inside orbit of Redbridge 1 = Highest
% with higher qualification (Level 4/5) 1= Highest47
IMD 1=Least deprived48
JSA claimants 1= Low claimant rate49
Aldborough 18 15 12 10 Barkingside 9 12 4 7 Bridge 16 17 7 5/6 Chadwell 17 18 9 12/13 Church End 3 4 3 5/6 Clayhall 12 9 2 4 Clementswood 14 14 21 19/20 Cranbrook 5 6 10 9 Fairlop 19 20 8 8 Fullwell 20 19 14 15/16 Goodmayes 6 7 17 17 Hainault 21 21 19 15/16 Loxford 10 13 20 18 Mayfield 11 16 13 11 Monkhams 8 3 1 1 Newbury 13 10 15 12/13 Roding 7 8 11 14 Seven Kings 15 11 16 19/20 Snaresbrook 1 1 5 2 Valentines 4 5 18 21 Wanstead 2 2 6 3
3.3.6 There is a significant correlation with the level of deprivation and unemployment. Boroughs such as
Monkhams, Snaresbrook, Wanstead and Church End enjoy good rankings across the board while boroughs such as Hainault and Fullwell are ranked poorly on all measures. There are exceptions. Valentines does not fit the overall picture at all.
3.4 Industries Where People Work in Redbridge
3.4.1 In 2008 there were a total of 69,079 people employed within industries in Redbridge. Figure 10 shows the number of businesses by each industry present in the borough.
47 Source: ONS Census 2001 (via NOMIS) 48 Source: Department of Communities and Local Government. Indices of Deprivation 2007. 49 Source: ONS Claimant Count (via NOMIS).
24
Figure 1050 - Industries in Redbridge 2009
Industries in Redbridge 2009
10
340
1,145
200
550
1,065
245
500
855
185
375
1,255
650
50210
510580
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Agricu
lture
, for
estry
& fis
hing
Produ
ctio
n
Const
ructi
on
Mot
or tra
des
Whole
sale
Retai
l
Trans
port
& stor
age
(inc.
posta
l)
Accom
mod
atio
n & fo
od se
rvice
s
Info
rmat
ion
& com
mun
icatio
n
Finance
& in
sura
nce
Prope
rty
Profe
ssio
nal,
scien
tific
& tech
nica
l
Busin
ess
adm
inist
ratio
n an
d su
pport
serv
ices
Public
adm
inist
ratio
n and
def
ence
Educa
tion
Health
Arts, e
nter
tain
men
t, re
crea
tion
and
othe
r se...
Nu
mb
er o
f b
usi
nes
ses
3.4.2 The top three industries in Redbridge are construction, retail and professional and scientific &
technical with more the 1000 businesses in each. Although the number of public administration and defence industries is relatively low, as previously outlined, these industries employ the largest numbers of employees.
3.4.3 The UK government continues to aspire for the British economy to remain one of the most powerful economies in the world. This can be achieved by supporting new and innovative sectors that can provide a “knowledge base” economy. Future investments are likely to be made in sectors such as technology, science and financial services.51 Redbridge is therefore well placed to benefit from this focus, particularly with large numbers of scientific and technical industries.
3.4.4 The Hainault Business Improvement District in particular, contains 160 companies and has been identified as a major manufacturing area in the London plan. The continued growth of this District will provide significant benefits to the borough, notably in terms of supply chains and the use of local manufacturers by local businesses.
3.4.5 Figure 11 shows how employment patterns within Redbridge changed between 1998 and 2008.
50 Source: ONS Annual Business Inquiry (via NOMIS) 51 Building Britain’s Future, HMG, June 2009. Chapter 3 [Investing for the Future: Building Tomorrow’s Economy Today] sets out the Government’s vision for the UK economy over the next decade and its commitment to ensuring that Britain can lead in new sectors of the future in a global economy and take advantage of the economic opportunities presented by the move to a low carbon economy
25
Figure 1152 - Change in Employment in Redbridge 1998-2008
Change in Employment in Redbridge 1998-2008
7.25.1
26.2
5.8
22.4
28.5
4.73.5 4.5
22.7
11.4
18.4
34.3
4.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Man
ufactu
ring
Constru
ction
Whole
sale,
retai
l, dist
ribut
ion
Trans
port &
com
mun
icatio
ns
Bankin
g & fi
nanc
e
Public
admin
, edu
catio
n & he
alth
Other
serv
ices
Per
cen
tag
e o
f al
l em
plo
yees
1998
2008
3.4.6 Employment in manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade and banking and finance became less significant over the decade, while transport and communications and public sector employment all became more important. It is likely that many of the people in the transport and communications sector also worked directly or indirectly for Government, providing the various public transport services. Consequently, public spending probably accounted for well over 40% of all employment in Redbridge in 2008. The trend over time has been for the local employment base to narrow and for job creation in Redbridge to rely more and more on public spending.
3.4.7 The London Development Agency has also noted these trends, pointing out that 58% of the jobs added in Redbridge between 1998 and 2007, were accounted for by the health and education sectors53. This growth is in line with the growth of population. Between 1998 and 2007 the population in Redbridge rose by 7.8%. Consequently, more health care and education services were needed. The result is therefore that 82% of all jobs growth in Redbridge has been in sectors “largely driven by residential demand”54.
3.4.8 Public spending cuts and public sector job cuts are likely to have a significant impact on these trends. If the public sector workforce contracts by the degree currently speculated, job creation will need to occur in other industries – notably within the private sector – to prevent significant increases in unemployment.
3.4.9 The borough employment projections (Table 12) shows that the number of employment opportunities will remain constant for the period 2006-2011. However from 2011 to 2016 an additional 10,000 jobs are expected to be created, with a further 2000 again by 2026.
52 Source: ONS Annual Business Inquiry Workplace Analysis (via NOMIS). 53 Sources of Endogenous Growth in Outer London: A Case Study of North East London. LDA, September 2009. Page 2. 54 Ibid.
26
Table 12. Borough employment projections 2007
Borough employment projection Actual Projection
Borough 2006 2011 2016 2026 Redbridge 83000 83000 93000 95000
3.4.10 However these statistics do not account for the impact of any public sector workforce cuts which
may impact overall employment figures, particularly in 2011.
3.4.11 Table 13 shows the population projections for the borough over the next 20 years. There is expected to be a significant rise in population growth from 2011 to 2026. Linking employment projections with population growth highlights that despite a significant rise in population growth from 2011 to 2026, employment projections are not in line with this increase. Without an increase in local jobs to match increases in the population, individuals will be forced to seek employment in other boroughs, or may simply find themselves unemployed. Table 13. Population Projection 2007
Borough population projection Actual Projection 2006 2011 2016 2026 Redbridge 248161 258751 265071 277625
3.4.12 The table below shows the median weekly gross pay in London’s boroughs. Redbridge residents’
weekly pay is significantly higher than the UK average. Table 14. Weekly pay - gross 2009
Borough Weekly pay -gross Borough
Weekly pay -gross
Barking and Dagenham 526.1 Hounslow 536.6 Barnet 622.9 Islington 632.4 Bexley 574.9 Kensington and Chelsea 933.1 Brent 524.6 Kingston upon Thames 623.6 Bromley 645.2 Lambeth 602.0 Camden 701.7 Lewisham 550.4 City of London 773.3 Merton 613.6 Croydon 566.7 Newham 491.8 Ealing 557.2 Redbridge 608.2 Enfield 546.0 Richmond upon Thames 710.5 Greenwich 601.2 Southwark 617.6 Hackney 573.0 Sutton 572.6 Hammersmith and Fulham 670.8 Tower Hamlets 654.2 Haringey 556.4 Waltham Forest 542.3 Harrow 600.9 Wandsworth 703.3 Havering 580.4 Westminster 743.7 Hillingdon 540.0 UK average 488.7
27
3.5 Business Investment and Growth
3.5.1 Redbridge is a borough of small businesses. In 2009 88% (6,615) of businesses had between 0 to 9 employees.
Figure 12. Employment size in Redbridge 55
Employment size in Redbridge 2009
7,680
510300 205 30
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0 - 9 10 - 19 20 - 49 50-249 250+
Nu
mb
er o
f B
usi
nes
ses
3.5.2 In order to sustain these micro-businesses local providers offer a range of support and one-to-one business advice for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). Recent feedback from providers has shown that although new start up businesses often need significant amounts of support, many well established businesses are now seeking business support, particularly in improving their marketing techniques, website designs and customer service.
3.5.3 Furthermore the Council is also developing different programmes with its partners to promote social enterprise throughout the borough in order to create sustainable businesses and make Redbridge an even more competitive entrepreneurial borough.
3.5.4 Large businesses (though few in number) still account for a large share of total employment (Figure 12)
55 Source: ONS Annual Business Inquiry Workplace Analysis (via NOMIS).
28
Figure 1356 - Number of employees for each size of business in Redbridge 2008
Number of Employees for each Size of Business in Redbridge 2008
17,738
14,683
17,415
19,243
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1-10 employees 11-49 employees 50-199employees
200 or moreemployees
Num
ner
of em
plo
yees
3.5.5 In comparison with other boroughs in the sub-region, employment growth by small businesses in Redbridge has been relatively poor. Note that Figure 15 below does not reflect the impact of the recession. When figures for 2008/09 are published they will likely show a downturn across all the local authorities.
Figure 1457 - Percentage of small businesses with employment growth
Percentage of small businesses with employment growth
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Cityof London
Newham
Tower
Hamlets
Barking andDagenham
Havering
Redbridge
Waltham
Forest
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
3.5.6 In 2009, all these businesses generated £4,164,880,000 turnover in Redbridge. This puts the borough
in the middle of its immediate neighbours for business turnover.
56 Ibid. 57 Source: http://stats.berr.gov.uk/ed/national_indicators/ED AU National Indicator 172 2010 update.XLS
29
Figure 1558 - Business Turnover 2009
Business turnover 2009 (£thousand)
4,717,159
3,740,228
5,976,790
4,164,880
3,568,005
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Newham
Barking andDagenham
Havering
Redbridge
Waltham
Forest
3.5.7 Redbridge has high rates of both business formation and failure (sometimes called “churn”). Between 1994 and 2007 new business start-ups amounted to 13.7% of the total stock, while on average 12.3% of the total business stock failed each year. Figure 1659 - Redbridge Business Churn
Redbridge Business Churn
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Nu
mb
er o
f V
AT
reg
istr
atio
ns
Registrations Deregistrations Stock at end of year
58 Source: ONS Neighbourhood Statistics. IDBR Analysis to Support Local Authorities 2000-2009. 59 Source: ONS VAT Registrations/Deregistrations by Industry (via NOMIS)
30
3.5.8 For 2008 the situation was similar(Table 15) Table 15 Business Demography 200860
Employment Size Band
0 - 4 5 - 9
10 - 19
20 +
Total
Count of new births in 2008
1,360 45 20 15 1,440
Count of deaths in 2008 1,040 60 25 5 1,130Count of active businesses in 2008
7,645 760 345 220 8,970
3.5.9 Table 16 shows the survival rate of start-up businesses in Redbridge from 2002 to 2008. The highest
rates of survival are in the first year. In 2008, only 36.3% of businesses that started up in 2003 had survived. This is lower than the 39.4% London average or 46.6% national average. Table 16 Business survival 2003-200861
Business survival Year of birth Births
1 Year Survival
1 Year per cent
2 Year Survival
2 Year per cent
3 Year Survival
3 Year per cent
4 Year Survival
4 Year per cent
5 Year Survival
5 Year per cent
2003 1,115 1,030 92.4 815 73.1 605 54.3 495 44.4 405 36.3 2004 1,330 1,250 94.0 980 73.7 770 57.9 625 47.0 .. .. 2005 1,225 1,145 93.5 925 75.5 710 58.0 .. .. .. .. 2006 1,310 1,250 95.4 975 74.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. 2007 1,350 1,315 97.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
3.5.10 Redbridge has an excellent and well-deserved reputation for natural entrepreneurial ability which has historically stemmed from Asian and Jewish populations. A 2004 Royal Mail survey recognized Ilford as one of the top locations in the UK for business start ups. Nevertheless, the rate of business failure and survival is still particularly high and may increase further in response to the current economic climate.
60 ONS Business Demography 2008 61 ONS Business Demography 2008
31
3.6 Barriers to Business Success 3.6.1 The 2007 London Annual Business Survey ranks the main constraints to business growth in London,
based on a survey of businesses in the capital. Table 17 ranks the constraints in order of importance across London as a whole and within north east London: Table 17: Constraints to Business Growth62
Rank (1= most important) Constraint on Business Whole of London North East London
Government regulations 1 1 Transport within London 2 4 Cost of premises 3 3 Availability of skilled employees 4 2 Transport in and out of London 5 8 Cost of labour 6 5/6/7 Availability of affordable housing 7 5/6/7 Crime 8 5/6/7 Size of premises 9 9 Proximity to customers or clients 10 10/11 Proximity of other companies in same sector
11 10/11
Access to finance 12 12 Proximity to suppliers 13 13
3.6.2 The most notable business constraints in North East London are government regulations, lack of skilled employees, the cost of premises and transport.
3.6.3 Anecdotal evidence from Hainault Business Park businesses suggests that the lack of suitable public transport links between Hainault and the rest of the borough places significant constraints on their business growth.
3.6.4 Although Redbridge has a high level of educational attainment, 72% of those of working age have only achieved Level 1skills. Many businesses report that applicants who come for interview often have poor employability ‘soft’ skills, such as time keeping and work ethic and are therefore not yet job ready or suitable for employment.
3.6.5 Redbridge has an increasingly transient population and continues to see entrepreneurs from overseas wishing to locate their businesses within the borough. A number of these businesses, particularly from BME backgrounds, are unaware of UK government regulations and employment legislation and often need additional assistance in a number of areas, from taxation and business rates to understanding how they can recruit the right individuals within the legal framework. The growth of these businesses is therefore constrained if they are unable to access relevant support.
3.6.6 The Redbridge Business Survey 2006 found that roughly half of business premises are owned and half are rented63. Some 69% of respondents chose their business location because it was close to the owner’s home64.
62 Sources: London Annual Business Survey 2007, LDA and Sources of Endogenous Growth in Outer London: A Case Study for North East London, LDA September 2009. Page 11. 63 Redbridge Business Survey 2006. BMG Research. Page 3. 64 Ibid.
32
3.6.7 Perceptions of business premises were very positive65:
81% were satisfied with the location. 80% were satisfied with the condition of premises. 79% were satisfied with transport links. 77% were satisfied with the size of premises. 76% were satisfied with utility provision.
3.6.8 The highest levels of dissatisfaction related to parking provision.
3.7 Worklessness Assessment66
3.7.1 Unemployment and JSA claimants Redbridge has experienced a significant increase in JSA (Job Seekers Allowance) claimants since January 2008. Overall , there was a 47.73% increase in the number of JSA claimants across Redbridge between January 2008 and January 2009. Between January 2009 and January 2010 the increase was 29.59% to 7,151. By June 2010 this had fallen by 38% to 6,884. The highest number of claimants in the borough between January 2008 and June 2010 was in the month of February 2010, when there were 7,405 (Nomis Mar 2010) which is most likely to be due to the impact of financial sector redundancies and the end of seasonal employment over the Christmas period. Table 18: JSA claimants in Redbridge wards – highest and lowest, January 2008 – January 201067
Claimant count in Redbridge Aug 08
Claimant count in Redbridge Jan 09
Claimant count in Redbridge Jan 10
Highest four wards Loxford 356 Loxford 421 Loxford 546 Valentines 360 Valentines 407 Valentines 509 Clementswood 312 Clementswood 370 Seven Kings 474 Newbury 269 Goodmayes 323 Clementswood 448 Lowest four wards Monkhams 37 Monkhams 99 Monkhams 106 Church End 82 Snaresbrook 151 Snaresbrook 177 Snaresbrook 95 Church End 156 Church End 196 Wanstead 103 Wanstead 161 Wanstead 211 Table 19: Wards with the highest % increase in claimant rates between January 2008 and June 2010
Monkhams 216.2 Church End 129.6 Fairlop 127.7 Snaresbrook 101
65 Ibid. 66 Source: Employment, Skills and Enterprise Plan, October 2010 67 Source: Claimant count (via Nomis)
33
Table 20: Wards with the lowest % increase in claimant rate between January 08 and June 2010
Loxford 57 Valentines 49 Goodmayes 54 Clementswood 60
3.7.2 The greatest increase in the number of claimants was in the wards with the lowest number of claimants in January 2008. The smallest increase in the number of claimants was in the wards with the highest number of claimants in January 2008. This suggests that claimants in the highest wards are long term unemployed and therefore unaffected by the economic downturn, unlike those people from wards with the greatest increase. Overall however, claimant numbers were highest in the traditionally deprived wards in the south and lowest in the more affluent wards of the north west.
3.7.3 The wards with persistently high numbers of JSA claimants have experienced rises in numbers during the recession but many were long term unemployed and were already out of work before the downturn. The more affluent parts of the borough have suffered from higher rises in unemployment as residents there were more likely to work in the financial services sector in central London and were disproportionately likely to be made newly redundant. Figure17. JSA Claimants
Claimants (% resident population)
3.4
1.7
4.1
2.4
4.8
3.7
6.0
3.9
6.1
4.4
6.5
5.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Barking andDagenham
Havering Newham Redbridge TowerHamlets
WalthamForest
%
Apr-08 Apr-10
34
Table 21: Redbridge JSA Claimants by duration68
JSA Stock Total 13 weeks or less
over 13 weeks & up to 26 weeks
Over 26 weeks & up to 52 weeks
12 to 18 months
18 months to 24 months
over 24 months
July 2009 7070 3340 1775 1370 420 125 40 August 2009 7335 3530 1710 1485 420 155 40 September 2009 7315 3520 1635 1510 445 170 35 October 2009 7350 3575 1610 1495 480 150 40 November 2009 6955 3195 1615 1440 500 160 45 December 2009 7030 3130 1670 1480 545 160 45 January 2010 7145 3005 1785 1500 625 175 50 February 2010 7405 3220 1755 1545 665 175 50 March 2010 7385 3210 1690 1560 685 200 45 April 2010 7120 3125 1465 1575 685 215 50 May 2010 7090 2900 1640 1540 725 235 55 June 2010 6875 2695 1650 1515 710 250 55
3.7.4 The largest percentage reduction, as a proportion of all JSA claimants, was amongst people who were short term unemployed (receiving JSA for 13 weeks or less). This rate went down from 52% (3,395 people) in March 2009 to 39% (2,565 people) in June 2010 whilst those on JSA for between 13 to 26 weeks remained relatively stable at around 23 to 24% of the total. Also, although the overall proportions of longer term claimants are much less than short term, the data shows that both numbers and proportions are growing. The additional concern with longer term unemployment is that individuals become increasingly de-skilled the longer they out of work and then find it more difficult to get back into work. Table 22: Redbridge JSA Claimants by age69
JSA Stock Total Aged Under 18
18-24 25-49 50+
July 2009 7070 10 1950 4020 1085 August 2009 7335 15 2155 4065 1105 September 2009 7315 10 2190 3995 1120 October 2009 7350 10 2160 4070 1115 November 2009 6955 5 1900 3975 1070 December 2009 7030 5 1840 4085 1095 January 2010 7145 10 1830 4155 1155 February 2010 7405 10 1955 4255 1180 March 2010 7385 10 1915 4305 1155 April 2010 7120 10 1735 4220 1155 May 2010 7090 10 1680 4225 1175 June 2010 6875 5 1595 4095 1180
3.7.5 Claimant numbers began to fall in June 2010 in all age groups except 50+. 18-24 claimant numbers had also been steadily falling since February 2010. The concern with the number of claimants over 50+ is that they often find it more difficult to return to employment and may not have the skills sets
68 Source: Claimant count (via Nomis) 69 Ibid
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organizations require. Where these individuals remain out of employment for long periods they become more dependent on public services and support. With increasing retirement ages, this could see some individuals out of work for well over 10 years.
3.7.6 Although Redbridge has a high level of educational attainment, there is concern nationally that the number of employment opportunities for those individuals who have recently completed a degree have significantly reduced which may lead to higher dependency on parents, for example, to support them whilst they seek employment.
3.7.7 An internal JCP document (Labour Market Bulletin for Redbridge) showed that although the overall employment rate was 67.9% for the borough, the rate was 73.5% where ethnicity was stated as “white” but 63.7% where ethnicity was stated as “ethnic minority”. Table 23: Redbridge JSA Claimants by ethnicity Month/ year
Total claimants
% white % ethnic minority
% prefer not to say
Unknown
Sep 08 4,555 35.23 54.33 7.9 2.52 Sep 09 7,315 36.43 54.27 6.76 2.52 63.52% of the population classify themselves as White, with 36.48% classifying themselves as from Black and ethnic minority groups. 13.96% of the population is Indian, 10.12% is Black, 6.24% is Pakistani and 1.77% is Bangladeshi. Translated into the categories available in the JSA data, this means that people from ethnic minority groups are disproportionately to be found on the JSA register (L B Redbridge 2001 census). However, acording to GLA's ethnic projections, in 2009 48.1% of the Redbridge population are from black and minority ethnic (BME) groups.
3.7.8 Anecdotal evidence suggests there is a significant minority ethnic (including Somali and South Asian) population located in the South of the Borough – particularly in the Loxford ward. Many of these individuals are Somali women who speak little or no English and may have had little or no formal education. Further anecdotal evidence suggests that these individuals may involved in an informal economy, particularly influence by their cultural structure and dependence on leaders.
3.7.9 Barriers to Employment JCP customers were asked if they had any disadvantages in seeking employment. The following figures, of the 6,884 claiming out of work benefit show that inadequate skills level is one of the greatest disadvantages to gaining employment. Table 24: JSA Claimants Barriers to Employment
Customer Classification Snapshot
Homeless - PWA 24
Refugees - Indefinite Leave to Remain
416
Refugees - Other / Humanitarian Protection.
74
Ex-Offender 104
Misuser of Drugs 37
36
Misuser of Alcohol 27
Level 1 or lower in the national qualifications framework
2279
Single Parent
(JCP External Digest June 2010)
3.7.10 Childcare barriers are regularly cited by jobcentreplus clients as a barrier to both seeking and gaining
employment. Table 23 shows the number of children aged 0-9 in Redbridge along with the number of childcare providers in the borough. The table shows there are places for around one third of the children aged 0-9. Table 25. Childcare providers 201070
Age Childcare providers 0-9 years Number of providers PlacesRedbridge 37,100 585 10980
3.7.11 One of the reasons for this difference could be the fact that there are 35000 women aged 16-64 that
are economically inactive in the borough, who may have chosen to take care of their children themselves thus not requiring childcare provision. However further analysis of this data shows that only 4.7 % from the economically inactive persons say that the reason for not looking for a job is the fact that are looking after the family/home. Table 26. Economically inactive persons in Redbridge 201071
Number Percent
Females who are economically inactive - aged 16-64
35,000 39.9
Economically inactive - aged 16-64
52,000 29.8
Economically inactive who want job reason not looking - looking after family/home
2,400 4.7
3.7.12 The Childcare Provider Survey on the Childcare Market details different statistics. There was a
disparity between the views of childcare providers and members of the public regarding the amount of childcare provision locally, however the development of new childcare places should take into account existing childcare provision.72 The reason for the disparity in comments may be due largely
70 NOMIS, Mid-year Population Estimates 2009 71 NOMIS, Annual Population Survey 2010 72 Childcare Provider Audit Questionnaires, October 2009
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to views on affordability. Although there is a large amount of provision across the borough, those seeking employment may be unable to find local provision that is affordable.
3.7.13 Education Redbridge was rated one of the highest performing local education authorities in Britain by the Observer newspaper 73. The borough continues to promote education as a lifelong opportunity and invests in education facilities and programs for all its residents. Table 24 shows the percentage of Redbridge residents who remain in education post 18. However it is probable that a large proportion of these are studying outside of London. It is important to recognise that not all of these individuals will study in Redbridge and may go to college/ university outside of the borough. Table 27. 18 to 24 year olds in education74
2006 – 2007
2007 – 2008
2008 - 2009
Redbridge 29.8% 43.0% 50.6% London 33.0 % 35.8% 36.3% England 26.8% 27.6% 28.0%
3.7.14 Different services for career advice, support and guidance are available for young people aged 13 to
19 years old. Working together these providers offer information, advice and guidance about choice of career, employment and training, support with CVs and interview skills.
3.7.15 Skill Levels
The draft Employment, Skills and Enterprise Plan for Redbridge contains an assessment of the reasons people are out of work and this identified the level of skill as the major issue in accessing employment opportunities.
3.7.16 A key challenge for Redbridge is to increase the proportion of young people who achieve a level 3 qualification, who then go on to post-compulsory education and widening access to higher education for local residents generally. Table 28: Skill levels as a percentage of the working age population (2008) Redbridge (%) London (%) England (%) Level 4+ 36.1 38.6 28.7 Level 3+ 49.7 51.6 46.5 Level 2+ 62.0 63.8 64.6 Level 1+ 72.4 73.7 78.8 No qualifications
13.1 12.0 12.3
3.7.18 44.4% of those in employment in Redbridge are qualified to level 4 or above; 8.3% of those in
employment have no qualifications. (ONS October 2009) The LSC identified a problem that progression to higher level skills is particularly problematic in the Thames Gateway for young people. A key issue for Redbridge is what happens to young people who achieve a level 3 qualification. A recent initiative of the Thames Gateway Further and Higher Education Action group is a guarantee of assured progression within the area. This means that every local resident whoa achieves level 2 will be given the chance to study for an appropriate level 4
73 http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2007/oct/18/schools.uk2 74 Source: Employment, Skills and Enterprise Plan, 2010
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qualification, with the ultimate aim that every course in the area, particularly but not exclusively at vocational level 3, will lead directly to a place on a an appropriate level 4 course It is seen as critical that raising aspirations of children and young adults, increasing participation in post-compulsory education and widening access to higher education for local residents to be able to take advantage of the opportunities the Thames Gateway offers. Almost 32% of residents of London Thames Gateway boroughs now possess a Level 4 qualification (first degree).
3.7.19 Feedback from businesses as well as employability support providers has asserted that many individuals seeking employment do not have the appropriate ‘employability skills’ to ensure recruitment success. These include time management skills, communication and presentation skills. Where many have been out of work for significant periods of time, or have not had relevant work experience, they are finding that despite reaching the interview stages of recruitment campaigns, they are not deemed ‘job ready’ by employers. Directly linked to this is the fact that many have lost confidence in themselves as a result of being unemployed for significant periods or for being deemed to lack the appropriate qualifications necessary for a particular job. There is therefore a need to improve employability skills training, as well as continue to work with those individuals who require additional confidence building. Additional feedback from businesses has also made clear many individuals lack basic ICT skills, which are increasingly becoming a basic requirement of many employment positions. Although there are a variety of providers of ICT training within the borough, many are costly or at inconvenient times, especially for parents. More training providers are beginning to offer free basic ICT skills certificates, however as yet, there is little evidence of the take up or impact of this. There is a wide range of ESOL provision across the Borough and providers include Redbridge College, Redbridge Institute of Adult Education (RIAE), as well as voluntary and private providers. EnterpriseREDBRIDGE partners are currently mapping ESOL provision across the Borough. The aim is to ensure that ESOL and basic skills provision meets the needs of the expanding non-UK born population. There are low employment rates amongst some recently arrived population groups so language, literacy and numeracy provision may need to be expanded and given a stronger work-relevance. Well configured job-focused language services would need to differentiate between three broad categories of recent arrivals who have quite different work-related needs: highly skilled people whose poor English prevents them working in their previous occupation or profession; very low or unskilled people, especially women, with little or no English; younger migrant workers, particularly from Eastern European countries, who are prepared to work in a wide range of jobs.
3.7.20 Languages75 Redbridge residents speak a large number of different languages. A total of 119 identified languages (other than English) were spoken by pupils in primary, secondary and special schools in Redbridge in 2010. Urdu was the most common language spoken in 2010, with 4555 speakers (19.8% of EAL pupils). Other commonly spoken languages included Panjabi (3163 pupils or 13.7% of EAL speakers), Bengali (2992 or 13.0%), Tamil (2246 or 9.7%) and Gujarati (2004 pupils or 8.7%). The actual number of languages spoken may be higher than this as there were 896 pupils identified as EAL but without a language specified. The number of pupils shown as speaking an unidentified non-English language varied widely between schools and may decrease in the future.
75 2010 Local School Census
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3.8 Economic Growth and the Environment
3.8.1 Importance of Local Environmental Quality The natural environment plays an important role in supporting economic activity. It provides resources and raw materials, such as water, timber and minerals, as inputs for the production of goods and services (sometimes known as sources). It contributes indirectly through services provided by ecosystems, such as carbon sequestration, water purification, managing flood risks, and nutrient cycling (sometimes known as sinks). The quantity and quality of both sources and sinks in Redbridge has an impact on economic growth and are assessed under the headings below.
3.8.2 There are also considerable economic benefits to businesses and private individuals associated with good local environmental quality (or a cleaner, greener borough). Benefits to the private sector include:
o Attracting more customers and increased consumer spending o Increased investment in local business o Improved image of businesses o Better retention of staff o Increased tourism
3.8.3 Local environmental quality affects a business’s productivity; supply routes; the health and well being
of employees; and its attractiveness to potential customers. Good local environmental quality can increase the number of businesses relocating to Redbridge, with liveability an additional factor.
3.8.4 Land
Land use in Redbridge is predominantly urban. Natural environments cover 38% of the Borough and include 35 Sites of Importance for Nature Conservation, half of which are ‘managed positively for nature conservation’. 2,070 ha is protected as Green Belt. Current planning policies are protective of these areas and it is not expected that future growth will alienate this land. The natural environmental quality of much of this land is poor by English standards, while it is fairly average by London standards76. However, the Green Flag Award recognises green spaces where the environment is of a high quality and well managed, and where all members of the community have access. 3 green spaces in Redbridge were awarded a Green Flag in 2010: Hainault Forest Country Park, Valentines Park and Elmhurst Gardens, all of which are operated by the Council in collaboration with ‘Friends of’ parks groups.
3.8.5 Water and flooding The River Roding and, to a lesser extent, Seven Kings Water are the principal watercourses in Redbridge. Under the Water Framework Directive (WFD), the Roding has been classified as having poor ecological status, and the Seven Kings Water has been classified as moderate ecological status. They need to achieve good ecological potential by 2027.
3.8.6 In Redbridge there were 3,086 properties registered to receive flood warnings as of June 2010. Of these, 784 properties were identified by the Environment Agency as being in areas of flood risk. Economic development and housing growth is strongly discouraged on flood plain under
76 State of the Borough. Local Futures, December 2007. Page 11.
40
Government Guidance (PPS25: Development and Flood Risk). Sustainable Drainage Systems (SUDS) should be further encouraged through the planning process.
3.8.7 Redbridge has an estimated 139 commercial properties located in flood risk zones77 and potentially vulnerable to flooding. The zones relate to risk from either fluvial or surface water flooding.
Map 1: Commercial premises located within flood risk zones
3.8.8 Air There has been a slow decline in the Borough’s air quality in recent years. Of the four recording stations, the average reading for oxides of nitrogen (NOx) was 46.7 μg/ m³ in 2008/09. This is above the 40 μg/ m³ which is considered acceptable for human health. It should be pointed out that the readings are mostly taken along busy roads and often reflect through traffic such as on the A406 (north circular), M11 and A12.
3.8.9 The Mayor of London has published a draft Air Quality Strategy that aims to reduce NOx levels by 35% by 201578. The biggest contribution to this will be a reduction in emissions from heavy goods vehicles.
3.8.10 The Borough of Redbridge is a low emission zone (LEZ), a Transport for London (TfL) allocation that sets emissions standards for diesel vehicles entering or driving in Greater London. The LEZ commenced on 4 February 2008 and applies to vehicles over 3.5 tonnes and buses and coaches over 5 tonnes with more than eight seats, plus the driver's seat. Failure to comply with the standards
77 Redbridge GIS Team estimation, Planning and Regeneration 78 Clearing the Air. Mayor of London, March 2010. Page 122.
41
currently results in a daily charge of £200, with failure to pay incurring a penalty of £1000 for each offense. Different vehicles will be affected over time and tougher emissions standards introduced in January 2012.
3.8.11 To comply with the Redbridge LEZ, businesses have four options:
o Have non-compliant vehicle engines converted to meet the required standard (costing between
£1,000 and £2,000 per vehicle, with some specialist equipment costing up to £2,50079).
o Upgrade fleet and get a newer vehicle that is compliant
o Do not use the offending vehicle in the Greater London area
o Pay the daily charge if entering into a LEZ zone
3.8.12 The low emission zone charge has a potential financial impact. The businesses most affected by the LEZ are the smaller and marginal operators (for all the four vehicle types identified)80. Many of these are owner-operators where the management of the vehicle fleet may be only one small aspect of running their business. Many of these operators would be unlikely to have formulated ‘fleet management strategies’ and may not have either the awareness, skills or funding to develop an efficient response to the scheme. These smaller businesses:
o May be less aware of their best options to manage the costs of compliance (i.e. they would not necessarily know whether their business would be better off fitting a filter or replacing their vehicles);
o May not plan sufficiently far ahead, and as a result may need to pay higher costs for making more of their fleet compliant in a shorter time span; and
o May not be able to finance the cash flow requirements of the vehicle replacement process, i.e. buying a compliant vehicle and selling an older vehicle.
3.8.13 The charge could also affect the Redbridge economy by dissuading individuals or businesses to travel into the Borough. However, the whole of London is a Low Emission Zone, so comparatively it should not cause too much disparity with our neighbours.
3.8.14 Carbon emissions Redbridge has one of the lowest carbon footprints of all London boroughs. The carbon footprint in Redbridge is 10.84¹ tonnes of CO2 per capita (2006), compared to a London average of 11.38 tonnes and a UK average of 12.12 tonnes81. Redbridge has a relatively low industry base compared to other London boroughs.
3.8.15 The Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) is a government initiated ‘carbon tax’ for large public and private organisations that will come into force in 2012. CRC is central to the UK’s strategy for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (1990 baseline), as set out in the Climate Change Act (2008).
3.8.16 Organisations must participate in CRC if they (and their subsidiaries) have consumed more than 6,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) per year of half hourly-metered electricity during 2008. Eligible organisations will need to purchase yearly carbon allowances and this revenue will be used to support the public finances, including spending on the environment. Participants must purchase allowances to cover
79 TfL, Report on the Assessment of the Proposal to Defer Low Emission Zone Phase 3 from 2010 to 2012 (May 2010) 80 TfL, Proposed London Low Emission Zone- Economic And Business Impact Assessment (Nov 2006) 81 Environment Agency, Redbridge Fact Sheet (2009)
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their 2011/12 emissions at the end of the 2011/12 compliance year. There will be a Performance League Table as a reputational driver.
3.8.17 Only the London Borough of Redbridge has registered as a CRC participant82 (as of November 2010). Other local businesses may be eligible and face a penalty for non-compliance. An estimation of how many commmercial businesses in Redbridge are eligible for the CRC would be useful and could be achieved by identifying businesses with a high number of employees and large square footage of office space.
3.8.18 Eligible local businesses should be informed of the potential impacts of the CRC and the free advice offered by the Carbon Trust. Businesses should be encouraged to lower their carbon emissions through more energy efficient buildings, operations and supply routes.
3.8.19 Under the CRC, the cost of carbon will be £12 per tonne at commencement. If this cost remains, the cost to Redbridge Council in 2012/13 will be £360,000. Energy efficient Council buildings and operations should be prioritised and alternative energy sources considered. The Council should continue to include and develop effective energy efficiency and sustainability criteria in their procurement process.
3.8.20 Waste Redbridge Council recycling and composting targets have been met for 08/09 and 09/10 but the recycling and composting rate in Redbridge ranks 23rd out of all London boroughs. This falls within the 3rd quartile83.
3.8.21 The volume of hazardous waste arising in Redbridge was 2,916 tonnes in 2008 – a reduction from the 3,382 tonnes in 200784.
3.8.22 Redbridge council is responsible for a weekly collection for dry recyclates. Residual refuse in black plastic sacks placed within a dustbin is collected weekly by MRS Environmental Ltd and taken to the bio MRF facility at Jenkins Lane, Newham, operated by Shanks Waste Services Ltd. Garden waste for composting is collected by a prior booking arrangement in the winter months. Between Spring and Autumn, green waste is collected automatically on the working day following normal waste collection. There is one reuse and recycling centre at Chigwell Road, Woodford Bridge, and 67 Bring Banks. There are eight regulated facilities (ex-waste management licenses), and 73 exempt waste operations.
3.8.23 Redbridge, Newham, Barking and Dagenham, and Havering form the East London Waste Authority (the statutory waste disposal authority). The ELWA has reduced the municipal waste (MSW) to landfill significantly in the last few years. It was within the top 10 local authorities in the country for improvements in the percentage of MSW sent to landfill in 2006/07, when it was reduced from 80 per cent to 67 per cent. This is reducing annually, to 55 per cent In 2007/08 and 43 per cent in 2008/09. The East London Waste Authority is preparing a Joint Waste Development Plan Document to set a planning framework for waste management in East London and identify sites for new waste management facilities. Redbridge Council will collect commercial waste at a charge.
3.8.24 Street Cleansing
82 Environment Agency, List of Registered CRC participants (November 2010) cited http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/business/topics/pollution/117652.aspx 83 Environment Agency, Redbridge Environmental Factsheet (2010) 84 Ibid
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Between 09/10 and 10/11, Redbridge improved street and environmental cleanliness (levels of graffiti, litter, detritus & fly posting). This was achieved through additional CCTV and increased enviro-crime convictions; more litter bins; and a series of ‘Big Clean Up’ operations throughout the Borough tackled hotspots of graffiti, fly tipping, excessive littering and untidy front gardens, removing an average of 100 tonnes of rubbish from each area. Big Cleans are to continue, subject to funding.
3.8.25 Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) in Redbridge have tackled environmental cleanliness. Over the last four years, Hainault Business Park BID has, in partnership with Redbridge Council, tackled fly-tipping, abandoned vehicles, and repaired broken walls and fencing. In a recent survey to businesses on the park, over 80% of businesses were ‘very satisfied’ or ‘satisfied’ with road and street cleanliness and 80% with the atmosphere and appearance of the area85.
3.8.26 Derelict land Redbridge is currently the sixth best performing London Borough in regards to the amount of land that has been derelict or underused for over five years, at only 0.08%. The target for 2009/10 is 0.08%, 0.07% for 2010/11 and 0.07% for 2011/12. Any underused land is identified as an opportunity site in the Redbridge Local Development Framework (LDF), the Borough’s ten-year spatial strategy that informs development. 47 such sites are identified in the Crossrail Corridor Area Action Plan (2010). The lack of underused land means that the majority of opportunity sites are in town centres, which promotes mixed use developments close to transport hubs: a sustainable method of development.
85 The Mackinnon Partnership, Hainault Business Park Pre-Ballot Questionnaire: Report to the London Borough of Redbridge and Hainault Business Park Ltd (August 2010)
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Chapter 4: Shaping the Future Economy
4.1 Continuous Change
4.1.1 Economic conditions change continuously and past trends are not necessarily a guide to the future. This chapter looks at the major factors which could shape the economic fortunes of Redbridge into the future. It concludes with a brief summary of the key economic strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the borough.
4.2 Recovery from the Recession
4.2.1 At time of writing, the UK had officially emerged from recession by recording positive GDP growth from the last quarter of 2009 onwards. Global stock markets were also rising and the worst of the global financial crisis appeared to be over. However, the strength of the recovery remains problematic and indebtedness of a number of EU countries (principally Greece) continues to weigh down currencies and European financial markets.
4.2.2 The International Monetary Fund predicts world GDP to grow by 4.5% in 201086. In “advanced”
Europe the recovery is expected to be “gradual and uneven” with euro-area-wade GDP growing at 1% in 2010 and 1.5% in 201187.
4.2.3 It appears reasonable to predict a slow improvement in the national economy, although a return to boom conditions is unlikely for the foreseeable future. The IMF predicts UK GDP growth of 1.3% in 2010 and 2.5% in 201188. Due to the huge Government expenditure to stimulate the economy and bail out the banks at the height of the crisis, Government spending will be severely constrained for a number of years and perhaps for many years. The October 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review set out the Coalition Government’s plans for reducing the national deficit, the impact of which is likely to have significant effects, not least on the public sector.
4.2.4 This has direct consequences for all local authorities and their ability to deliver services and
infrastructure (see below for discussion of the capital funding needs of Redbridge). This situation is especially dangerous for Redbridge because local job creation is so heavily dependent on public spending. As discussed in chapter 3, the public sector has been the mainstay of job creation in Redbridge over the last decade. If this source of new jobs dries up or should the local public sector workforce actually contract, it will pose a major challenge for the borough.
4.3 Competition within the Sub-region
4.3.1 The East London sub-region is subject to major investment associated with the Thames Gateway and London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough growth corridors and the 2012 Olympics. Of prime importance to Redbridge is the development of Stratford City. Emerging London Plan policy supports Stratford as a Strategic Outer London Development Centre (even though Newham is an inner London borough).
86 World Economic Outlook April 2010. IMF. Page xii. 87 Ibid. Page 54. 88 Ibid. Page 54, Table 2.4.
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4.3.2 The Westfield shopping mall to be completed at Stratford in 2011 will be the largest urban shopping centre in Europe with 177,000 m2 of floor space and include over 300 stores, 12 cinema screens, two hotels and 5,000 car parking spaces. By comparison, total retail floorspace in Redbridge in 2008 was 436,000 m2.
4.3.3 Stratford City is also planned to host 465,000m2 of new office development (much of it cannot be
built until after the Olympics). By comparison, the total gross office floorspace required in Redbridge between 2007 and 2031 is estimated to be just 23,680m289. There is some doubt that the full extent of office development will be realised at Stratford, but only because other office mega-schemes are under construction at Canary Wharf or planned at Wood Wharf and Greenwich Peninsula90.
4.3.4 Combined with new residential building and the stimulus of the Olympics, all this development is
likely to cause Stratford to gain Metropolitan Centre status and eventually overshadow Ilford. However, population growth, increased consumer spend and accessibility in future provide opportunities to mitigate that impact. The growth of Stratford with its excellent transport links poses a major economic challenge for Redbridge and in particular Ilford and other large east London town centres such as Romford.
4.3.5 Roger Tym and Partners91 suggested in their Retail and Leisure Study that despite the growth of
Stratford, sufficient retail demand growth will occur in Ilford’s catchment to support at least 23,000 m2 of new floorspace by 2016 in the form of a modern High Street shopping mall. The Redbridge Local Development Framework supports delivery of such a scheme. Current economic conditions aside, a key constraint to delivering a sizable shopping mall is the lack of an available site of adequate size and in a suitable location. Although a metropolitan Town Centre, Ilford has been affected in recent months by numerous businesses closing down as a result of the economic climate. It is acknowledged that the Retail and Leisure study could be updated as part of the Core Strategy Review.
4.3.6 As well as improving its retail offer, the East London SRDF92 suggests that Ilford will have to reinvent
itself as a leisure and evening economy oriented destination if it is to successfully respond to the growth of Stratford.
4.3.7 Consequently, competition within the sub-region is likely to grow sharper and it is unrealistic to expect any “big bang” office or retail investment which will transform the economic future of Redbridge. However, while Ilford may be overshadowed by Stratford in relative terms, there are still prospects for modest growth of non-housing sectors, especially where retail or commercial development can be attracted as part of mixed-use developments led by new housing.
4.3.8 The Borough has a growing late night economy principally centred around Ilford Town Centre, Gants Hill and Seven Kings. A number of night clubs, public houses and restaurants are situated at these centres. Furthermore activity is also centred on restaurants and pubs in more outlying shopping centres such as Barkingside, The Broadway and Snakes Lane in Woodford Green, George Lane, Woodford High Road, Green Lane, Goodmayes, Ilford Lane and Wanstead. These activities support the cultural diversity of the borough and contribute to its economy, employment and leisure.
4.3.9 Moreover the Council is currently in the process of applying for the Purple Flag for Wanstead District Centre. Purple Flag is a practical framework for raising the standard, quality and broadening the appeal of towns at night. The main benefits are: a raised profile and an improved public image,
89 Ibid. Pages 53 and 59. 90 London Office Policy Review. Radimus Consulting, November 2009. Page viii. 91 London Borough of Redbridge Retail and Leisure Study. Roger Tym and Partners, 2006. Page 56. 92 Sub-regional Development Framework East London. Mayor of London. Map 2006. Page 48.
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increased visitors, increased expenditure, lower crime and anti-social behaviour, and overall a more successful mixed-use economy.
4.4 2012 Olympics
4.4.1 Some 934 Redbridge businesses are registered with “CompeteFor” – a brokerage service that allows businesses to compete for contract opportunities linked to the 2012 Games. Although Redbridge is only a few minutes by rail or London Underground from the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics Games site at Stratford, Redbridge businesses have to date won twenty contracts of the up to 75,000 opportunities that will arise.
4.4.2 Because Redbridge is dominated by small and medium scale enterprises, its performance is likely to improve leading up to the Games and smaller contracts are tendered. But it does demonstrate that mere proximity to the site is no guarantee that the borough will receive direct or immediate economic benefits.
4.4.3 There will of course be short term benefits for hotels and other tourist accommodation facilities during the Games and longer-term indirect benefits for all boroughs from the international exposure and kudos that attaches to any Olympics host city. Some Redbridge residents will no doubt gain employment or volunteering opportunities during the Games, but extracting more in the way of tangible, measurable economic benefits for Redbridge remains a challenge.
4.4.4 An Olympics Working Group has been set up within the Council which is working to ensure that
Redbridge maximises the opportunities that will arise both before, during and after the Olympic Games are held in London.
4.5 Crossrail
4.5.1 The arrival of Crossrail in 2018 will change economic conditions in other ways. As well as improving rail capacity and speed, Crossrail will provide London’s first ever direct east - west connection without the need to change modes of transport through the central London bottleneck. As such it will help break down London’s historic longitudinal divide.
4.5.2 It will allow Redbridge residents to more easily access large pools of jobs in places such as the West End and Heathrow. The estimated journey time from Ilford to Heathrow will be 58 minutes. It may stimulate more local employment if highly accessible sites around the Redbridge Crossrail Stations can attract some new office investment.
4.5.3 Better access is a two-edged sword. Crossrail may also increase the leakage of retail spending from Redbridge to other centres along its route.
4.5.4 Crossrail will also result in direct investment in Redbridge, including a refurbished Ilford Station and conducting major upgrades of the other mainline stations at Goodmayes and Chadwell Heath. As long as the Ilford Station works are properly coordinated with Council and TfL plans to create a new bus interchange and the arrival of the Mayor’s Cycle Superhighway93, Crossrail will transform this gateway to Ilford and much of Redbridge, providing a greatly enhanced interchange facility that will be good for existing business and attractive to inward investors.
93 Cycle Superhighway Route 2: Aldgate to Ilford – Completion scheduled in 2012/13.
48
4.5.5 The arrival of Crossrail will also see the construction of the Crossrail Tunnelling Academy, due to
open in summer 2011. The Tunnelling Academy lies on the border of both Redbridge and Newham and will provide a purpose built facility that will provide training on the key skills required to work in tunnel excavation and underground construction.
4.5.6 The Council is currently preparing an Area Action Plan (AAP) for the area known as the Crossrail
Corridor. The Area Action Plan boundary encompasses the area running from the eastern edge of Ilford Metropolitan Centre, along the High Road, through Seven Kings, Goodmayes and Chadwell Heath Town Centres to the Borough boundary in the east. All three of these stations (Seven Kings, Goodmayes, Chadwell Heath) are on the proposed Crossrail route.
4.5.7 The Plan sets out a spatial planning framework for the future development and regeneration of this
area for the period 2011-2021 and beyond, thereby maximising the benefits of the arrival of Crossrail in 2018. It will help to guide investment and development through the designation of more than 40 Opportunity Sites, promoting a mixed use approach in town centres and around public transport nodes, delivering 1,500 new homes, new schools, and improved retail, healthcare, leisure and other social infrastructure (in accordance with the Community Infrastructure Plan (December 2009)). Once adopted in the autumn of 2011, it will form part of the Local Development Framework (the statutory development plan) for Redbridge.
4.6 Sustainable Economic Growth
4.6.1 Spatial Issues The future spatial distribution of growth and economic development within Redbridge is guided by the Council’s Core Strategy. This key planning document aims to concentrate most development on the borough’s hierarchy of town centres, led by Ilford as the only Metropolitan Centre and by far the largest town centre in the borough and followed by the District Centres of Barkingside, Gants Hill, South Woodford and Wanstead. The Local Centres of Woodford Broadway/Snakes Lane, Woodford Bridge, Manford Way, Seven Kings, Goodmayes, Ilford Lane and Newbury Park are intended to provide for local retail and community needs. In terms of housing, the Core Strategy aims for new development to be distributed as follows94:
35%-50% within Ilford Metropolitan Centre 15%-25% in the District and Local Centres 25%-35% throughout the rest of the borough
4.6.2 The Council has chosen this pattern as the most sustainable approach to growth because:
The town centres enjoy the best transport connections and thus are the best locations to
concentrate jobs, services and community facilities. It minimizes the need for higher densities or inappropriate development in the residential areas
where there could be conflict with their established suburban character. It preserves the extensive areas of Green Belt, open space and areas of nature conservation value
that are critical to the borough’s environmental quality.
4.6.3 The general approach accords with Government and London Plan policy on sustainable development and town centres and – while a review of the Core Strategy is scheduled by 2012 – there is currently no evidence to suggest that it will alter.
94 Core Strategy Development Plan Document. London Borough of Redbridge, March 2008. Strategic Policy 7, Page 26.
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4.6.4 One qualification needs to be made in respect of the borough’s eight designated Business Areas. Two of these (Hainault Business Park and Southend Road) are designated Strategic Industrial Locations under the London Plan and thus safeguarded for industrial uses.
4.6.5 Industrial uses in the remaining Business Areas are protected by LDF policy, although mixed-use schemes are permitted. However, some of these Business Areas suffer from high vacancy rates and the London Plan states that (apart from the Strategic Industrial Locations) Redbridge is a borough where “managed release” of industrial land to other uses is appropriate over time95. At least one such Business Area at Chadwell Heath (Grove Farm) is effectively making that transition now and if the long-term decline of industrial employment continues in time other areas may follow suit.
4.6.6 Housing Supply and Infrastructure New built development in Redbridge is dominated by housing and is likely to remain so. The Redbridge Core Strategy has a target to deliver an average of 905 homes per year up to 2016. As a result of revisions proposed in the draft replacement London Plan this figure may be reduced to 760 homes per annum for the period 2011 to 2021.
4.6.7 Successive Annual Monitoring Reports have recorded the borough’s success in delivering new homes and in identifying sufficient sites to accommodate the required amount of housing in the future. The Council has been rewarded for this performance with £2.7 million of Housing and Planning Delivery Grant for the years 2007/08 and 2008/09.
4.6.8 Simply building homes for a growing population is only half the story. In order to ensure that continued housing growth is sustainable, the Council and its partners must also be able to deliver adequate infrastructure to ensure that the availability and quality of community services and facilities is maintained or improved. The Redbridge Community Infrastructure Plan (December 2009) estimates the amount, costs and sources of funding for many types of community infrastructure needed to support housing growth in Redbridge until 2017. The key findings in relation to identified need are shown in Table 27 below: Table 2996 Cost of community infrastructure to support growth in Redbridge to 2017 (includes cost of both facilities and land). Type of Facility Cost to provide for future need (£million) London Borough of Redbridge Responsibilities Early Education (1 Children’s Centre) 1.0 Primary Schools (4.5 x 4FE) 69.6 Secondary Schools (Academy + 1X6FE + 1x8FE) 96.4 Transport (range of improvements) 10.1 Leisure Centres (1 centre: 25m pool & 8 courts) 15.8 Libraries (modernize facilities) 0.7 Open Space (quality improvements to 54 ha) 5.4 Sub-Total 199.0
NHS/PCT Responsibilities 11 GPs, 392m2 specialist care, 50 hospital beds 21.9 Learning & Skills Council/Further Education Providers’ Responsibilities 1,286 Further Education Places 6.9
95 London Pla. Subregional Development Framework. East London. Mayor of London. May 2006. Page 35. 96 Source: Redbridge Community Infrastructure Plan 2007-2017. December 2009. Pages 1 and 2.
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Total 227.8
4.6.9 The Council’s capital funding position is currently heavily constrained. This is unlikely to change for the foreseeable future, given pressure to limit Government spending in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. If the Council is to deliver the required community infrastructure without raising Council Tax to unacceptably high levels, then significant additional funding streams will have to be found.
4.6.10 Developer contributions can make an important contribution here and consultants have completed an economic viability assessment into a range of possible charges which could be applied to new development when it receives planning permission. Currently, such charges can be imposed through “S106” agreements which are signed in tandem with the planning application process. Such agreements often require complex negotiations and rarely deliver sufficient value to offset the full impact of the development on demand for community facilities.
4.6.11 For this reason, the former Government introduced provisions for a Community Infrastructure Levy and these came into effect in April 2010. The new Coalition Government which was elected in May 2010 has confirmed that it will retain CIL. An economic viability assessment suggests that a CIL charge of about £69/m2 would not undermine the viability of most development in the borough once commercial conditions normalize97. While this would deliver substantially more than S106 does currently, it is still insufficient to bridge the funding gap.
4.6.12 Without sufficient capital funding for community infrastructure the quality of facilities and services will slowly deteriorate, Redbridge will become less attractive as a place to live, work or do business and its economic fortunes will reflect this. Nowhere is this more apparent than with capital funding for schools. As stated earlier, a major strength of Redbridge is that many its residents are able to gain employment in the internationalised knowledge economy. Their ability to keep doing this depends on attainment of appropriate educational qualifications, which is founded on the start they have in the borough’s highly rated schools. Thus, capital funding shortfalls combined with higher than expected population growth pose a significant pose an economic, as well as a social threat.
4.6.13 Economics and sustainability “There is a danger that the low carbon economy is viewed as separate from the rest of the economy when, to meet challenging carbon reduction goals and remain competitive, the whole economy will need to become low carbon”. London Assembly, July 2009
4.6.14 Environmental implications and sustainability will play a large part in shaping the future economy:
1. Sustaining growth and managing risk – ensuring continued supply of energy, raw materials for production; waste disposal; a workable/liveable environment; climate change adaptation and business continuity
2. Improving efficiency and cutting costs –rising energy costs and alternative sources of energy, energy efficiency, and ‘greener’ (money-saving and money-making) practices
3. Competitiveness – green accreditations, positive publicity, green awards, and meeting customer demand
4. New market opportunities – growing low carbon market, green leisure opportunities, and new transport hubs/ connections
97 CIL Infrastructure levy/S106 Economic Viability Assessment, June 2010
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4.6.15 The ‘ecological footprint’ is a measure of how much of the planet is needed to provide the energy, food and materials used in Redbridge, and how much land is required to absorb the Borough’s waste. The ecological footprint in Redbridge is 4.34 global hectares per capita (2006), which is amongst the lowest footprint per capita in London and lower than the overall London footprint of 4.54 and the UK footprint of 4.64. However, it means that if everyone on the planet lived as those in Redbridge, we would need three Planet Earths: ultimately, this is not sustainable.
4.6.16 For the economic growth of the Borough to be sustainable, environmental impacts need to be considered. The Redbridge Environmental Action Plan (REAct) is a Borough-wide strategy that sets out how the Council and its partners will achieve a cleaner, greener and more sustainable Redbridge. It includes key environmental aims and targets and how the Council and its partners will work together to meet them.
4.6.17 Competitiveness
There are considerable economic benefits associated with good local environmental quality. Benefits include:
o Attracting more customers and increased consumer spending o Increased investment in local business o Improved image of businesses o Better retention and recruitment of staff o Increased tourism
4.6.18 Redbridge Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) consider street and environmental cleanliness a
priority area and worthy of investment. In August 2010, businesses on Hainault Business Park were asked how important ‘road and street cleanliness of Hainault Business Park’ was to their business and over 95% answered ‘very important’ or ‘important’98. When asked for their priorities for a new five year BID term, almost 90% believed ‘more recycling and waste disposal’ and ‘improved appearance of the area’ were ‘very important’ or ‘important’ and were among the top scoring priorities. Investment in local environmental quality is an investment in local business.
4.6.19 Managing risk: climate change
“The economy is not currently sustainable, with climate change as perhaps the most high profile example of this and the risks it creates for future prosperity.” London Assembly, July 200999
4.6.20 In order to prevent the worst scenario and the most severe impacts of climate change, emissions need to be brought down to the level that balances the Earth’s natural capacity to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The Stern Review estimates the annual costs of stabilisation at 500-550ppm CO2e to be around 1% of GDP by 2050. If we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more100. “Given the cost of impacts, taking urgent action is good economics.” Lord Stern, The Economics of Climate Change, November 2006101
98 The Mackinnon Partnership, Hainault Business Park Pre-Ballot Questionnaire: Report to the London Borough of Redbridge and Hainault Business Park Ltd (August 2010). 99 London Assembly, The Environment Committee response to the Economic Development Strategy and the Low Carbon Capital Prospectus, July 09 100 Lord Nicholas Stern, The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (2006) Executive Summary 101 Lord Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change Presentation to the Convention Dialogue, Nairobi (Nov 2006)
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4.6.21 The severity of climate change will depend on the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other
greenhouse gases that continue to be omitted globally. As highlighted by Lord Stern (above), cutting emissions now greatly outweighs the cost that will be incurred if nothing is done.
4.6.22 Our commitment to limiting the severity of climate change is important, however some impacts are still likely to happen. The effects of climate change will vary, but in London they are likely to include warmer, wetter winters; warmer, drier summers; and more extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and heat waves. Should they occur, these events will have an impact on the productivity of local businesses and services.
4.6.23 Redbridge has an estimated 139 commercial properties located in flood risk zones102 and potentially vulnerable to flooding. An increase in extreme weather events would have an economic impact on local business, both in terms of sales and productivity. For example, non-fashion retail sales fell by 14.1% nationally during the July heatwave and, during the same heatwave, around 4000 NHS staff called in sick due to unsuitable working conditions brought on by excess heat.
4.6.24 The Council should carry out a comprehensive risk assessment to ensure that appropriate steps are taken to adapt to any high-risk impacts and minimise their impact on the local economy. It is recommended that climate change adaptation be considered when discussing major applications and large-scale economic projects. In the longer term, the Council should engage with local businesses to raise awareness of the impacts of climate change, and encourage them to carry out a risk assessment that could link to existing Business Continuity Plans (BCPs). In the short term, businesses can be referred to the Department of Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) Climate Change Adaptation Plan (March 2010) via communication methods such as Redbridge i.
4.6.25 Energy supply and renewable energy Rising energy costs are likely to have a negative impact on Redbridge businesses. Industrial sectors likely to be hardest hit are transport and manufacturing (July 2008)103. More energy efficient production methods will be encouraged by higher energy prices. Sales of high-fuel consuming cars may fall as consumers shift to cars that consume less fuel.
4.6.26 Promoting investment in renewable energy would result in less reliance on the grid in future years and potential freedom from rising energy prices. Feed-In Tariffs (also known as FITs) is a government scheme that pays individuals or organisations that create their own "green electricity". The Tariffs give three financial benefits: o A payment for all the electricity produced, even if it is being used o Additional bonus payments for electricity exported into the grid o A reduction on a standard electricity bill, from producing and using own energy
4.6.27 Redbridge Council has already carried out a Low Carbon, Renewable Energy and Heat Mapping Study of the borough to determine possible prime locations for different kinds of renewable and decentralised energy technologies. Next steps should include using the Energy Opportunities map when determining development applications; investigating larger scale renewable energy opportunities for the Borough and using this information to inform large scale economic development; and promoting feed-in tariffs and the renewable heat incentive.
4.6.28 Greener’ business
102 Redbridge GIS Team estimation, Planning and Regeneration 103 GLA, Rising energy prices and their effects on environmental behaviour (July 2008)
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‘Greening’ business has a positive economic impact. ISO 14001 is an internationally recognised series of international standards for effective environmental management that covers every aspect of how an organisation operates. The potential positive commercial and financial benefits to companies who employ an ISO 14001 certified system are well documented.
4.6.29 The UK government has introduced an environmental tax called the Climate Change Levy to assist in cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. However, there are agreements in place that allow eligible businesses an 80% discount for implementing energy efficient measures. Furthermore, while energy efficiency measures have an ‘up front’ cost, the payback periods are relatively short (lighting upgrades generally have a payback period of 1-2 years) and proceed to reduce energy bills. The Carbon Trust offers interest free business loans of £3,000 - £500,000 to help organisations invest in energy saving projects and 100% first year tax relief on energy saving equipment. Reducing the amount of waste produced through the production process reduces the cost of disposal (i.e. landfill tax and refuse and recycling collection).
4.6.30 Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in Redbridge are eligible for a free environmental audit of their premises that includes between two and five days of free, tailor-made environmental advice on reducing costs, increasing efficiency and improving environmental performance. The North East London Energy Efficiency Advice Centre is delivering the EcoVate project locally.
4.6.31 Greening business can provide an additional revenue stream. For instance, Marks & Spencer begun charging 5p for every carrier bag and this raised an additional £1.2 million over a 12-month period and reduced bag usage by 83% (June 08 to June 09)104.
4.6.32 Greening procedures and supply routes can result in National recognition and positive publicity. The Mayor of London’s Green Procurement Code offers guidance on sustainable procurement and a recognised awards scheme (bronze, silver and gold). Other environmental awards include the Green Mark (presented by the London Environment Centre and supported by the London Development Agency and European Social Fund) and EMAS (a voluntary European Commission scheme backed by government and environmental regulators).
4.6.33 Redbridge could do more to promote the opportunities and benefits of sustainable practises to its businesses and the environmental support on offer.
4.6.34 By 2019, all non-residential buildings will be required to be ‘zero carbon’ as defined by the Building Regulations (Part L). It is expected that this will result in a rise in the cost of building commercial properties.
4.6.35 Building a low carbon economy “The transition to a low carbon economy has been recognised as a vital issue for the economy and economic development […] it is now clear that this transition should be made as quickly as possible. There is a danger that the low carbon economy is viewed as separate from the rest of the economy when, to meet challenging carbon reduction goals and remain competitive, the whole economy will need to become low carbon.” London Assembly, July 2009105
4.6.37 The low carbon sector is divided into sub-sectors: energy efficiency; energy supply; renewable energy; and waste and waste to energy (LDA definition). London’s low carbon economy is estimated to have generated a sales turnover of approximately £22 billion in 2009/10, representing around 4%
104 M&S Plan A Press Release (June 2009) 105 London Assembly, The Environment Committee response to the Economic Development Strategy and the Low Carbon Capital Prospectus, July 09
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of London’s economy. It is expected to continue to show above average growth, with forecasts suggesting that the geothermal, building technologies, solar photovoltaics, wind energy and wave and tidal energy sub-sectors will all grow at 4% and above year on year until 2012/13, with waste management and recovery and recycling industries more moderate, but strong, at above 2% per annum106. In 2008/09, approximately 100,000 people were employed in the low carbon sector in London and, it is estimated that the low carbon sector will deliver 18,000 net jobs by 2012/13107.
4.6.38 There is an opportunity to develop a low carbon business sector in Redbridge through the encouragement and support of entrepreneurial enterprises and the expansion of existing industries, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors. Currently, there are 75 companies that produce low carbon goods or services108. The estimated combined turnover of these companies in 2008/8 was £267.4 million and the number of jobs equivalent is estimated as 1774.
Table 30: Redbridge Low Carbon Sector breakdown (LDA definition)
Sector Level 1
Sub-sector Level 2
2008/9 turnover (million)
No. of companies No. of jobs equivalent
Consultancy and education
3.3 0 13
Recovery and recycling
53.1 8 240
Waste Management
4.1 1 84
Environmental sub sectors
TOTAL 60.5 9 337 Additional energy sources
3.8 0 31
Alternative fuels 20.1 7 233 Building technologies
20.2 7 197
Energy Management
16.1 0 5
Low Carbon Sub Sectors
TOTAL 60.2 14 466 Biomass 23.9 1 89 Geothermal 25.5 4 163 Hydro 11.8 0 28 Photovoltaic 25.6 1 96 Renewable consulting
2.6 0 4
Wave and tidal 33.9 0 0 Wind 19.7 46 567
Renewables sub sectors
TOTAL 143 52 947 Other Technologies,
Research and Development
3.7 0 24
TOTAL 267.4 74 1774
106 Innovas Ltd (2009) for LDA, Greening Expectations: London’s Low Carbon Job Prospects (September 2010) 107 Ibid 108 Innovas Ltd (2009) for LDA, Greening Expectations: London’s Low Carbon Job Prospects (September 2010)
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Source: Innovas Ltd (November 2009)
4.6.39 Currently, recovery and recycling is the sub-sector with the highest turnover. However, wind energy is a growing sub-sector in the borough, with the highest number of companies linked to wind technology or services (46) and the highest number of jobs equivalent (24).
4.6.40 Several upcoming initiatives provide opportunities to develop a local low carbon economy:
o The Green Enterprise District - the LDA’s flagship project for positioning London as a world-leading low carbon capital. It seeks to promote clusters of low carbon activity in East London and to draw in large-scale investment for innovative low carbon solutions ranging from energy generation and distribution to waste management. It will span four London Boroughs (Tower Hamlets, Newham, Barking and Dagenham, and Havering) and much of the London Thames Gateway. It is estimated that the District can generate over 6,000 additional jobs for local people in the emerging low carbon sector.
o ‘The Green Deal’- Government initiative to significantly improve the energy efficiency of homes and small businesses and support a quarter of a million ‘green jobs’ over the next 20 years. The Green Deal is expected to be available in late 2012.
o RE: NEW programme - a pan-London retrofitting scheme aimed at reducing CO2 emissions from London homes. It is a whole house approach encompassing all housing tenures and offering something for every borough and every household. It includes a range of free-of-charge, easy-to-do measures. Expected to stimulate significant growth and jobs in the low-carbon sector.
o RE:FIT programme - commercial model for public bodies to deliver energy efficiency improvements to their buildings and reduce CO2 emissions.
o The Retrofit Employer Accord - a scheme that aims to open up jobs created by LDA retrofitting projects (see above) to London’s workless population who have been unemployed for a sustained period of time. The project predicted to deliver 200 sustained employment (12 month) outcomes by March 2013. Please note: This scheme is subject to Treasury approval.
4.6.41 A local low carbon economy offers the potential for unemployed Redbridge residents to acquire new skills and gain employment in this growing sector. While the majority of jobs will be higher skilled, around 1 in 3 jobs will require a Level 2 qualification or below and approximately 2,200 net jobs will be available for low skilled and workless Londoners over the next four years. In 2009/10, approximately 10,000 learners started Further Education courses relevant to ‘low carbon’ in London: none of these courses were available in Redbridge. Redbridge colleges should be encouraged to run courses and modules that relate to the low carbon sector and raising awareness of low carbon jobs in secondary schools should be considered.
4.6.42 Buildings and transport hubs
The current London Plan10 year housing target from 2007/8 to 2016/17 is 9,050 new homes within Redbridge. Ilford is cited as an Opportunity Area for housing and commercial development and the new website, Ilford Blueprint (www.investilford.co.uk) is likely to generate interest from developers and commercial establishments looking to relocate to outer London.
4.6.43 Government targets aim for all new homes to be zero carbon by 2016 and it is estimated that building to Code for Sustainable Homes Level 6 (the zero-carbon level) will increase housing costs by
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30% to 40%109. All non-domestic buildings are to be zero carbon by 2019 as defined by the Building Regulations (Part L).
4.6.44 Locating new buildings near public transport hubs is essential in encouraging use of sustainable means of travel, reducing emissions from private vehicles and reducing congestion. The Crossrail Corridor is an opportunity area for new development and the proximity to the fast-rail link should encourage greater use of public transport. The Council has adopted a Cycle Strategy for the Borough to encourage commuting by sustainable means.
4.6.45 Redbridge is well connected to surrounding boroughs and central London. However, public transport links within the Borough, particularly North to South, could be improved to encourage a reduction in private vehicle use and carbon emissions. Greater North-South links would also encourage greater economic development in the North of the Borough as well as increasing local employment opportunities.
4.6.46 Green leisure opportunities The aim of the Mayor of London’s ‘Green Grid’ is to create a network of interlinked, multi-functional and high quality open spaces that connect with town centres, public transport nodes, the countryside in the urban fringe, the Thames and major employment and residential areas. Redbridge has some key strategic green spaces that could be incorporated into the Green Grid and bring more people into the borough and investing in our services and leisure facilities. These include Fairlop Waters Country Park, Valentines Park, Hainault Forest Country Park, and Wanstead Park.
4.6.47 Green spaces offer commercial opportunities, such as hosting festivals and events linked to London 2012 Olympics. For instance, Hainault Forest Country Park has hosted the One Love Festival, the UK's only annual Reggae Camping Festival, and the Offset Festival, one of Time Out’s top-rated alternative festivals. Such events bring thousands of additional people into the Borough and more should be done to increase the benefits to local businesses.
109 Code for Sustainable Homes: A Cost Review. GLG, March 2010. Page 11.
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4.7 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
4.7.1 The economic strengths and weaknesses of Redbridge and the opportunities and threats facing the borough may be summed up as follows:
Figure 18
Strengths
Well educated workforce founded on strongly performing local schools
Good transport connections (especially
to central London)
Strong residential growth
Strong network of town centres and Ilford has sub-regional economic “clout”
Good rates of small business formation
Two Business Improvement Districts
(BIDs)
Redbridge Business Network
Profitable green spaces
Weaknesses
Declining local employment base
Over-reliance on public sector for job creation
Success is “patchy” – some parts of Redbridge have lower levels of education and workplace
skills
Local economy fairly self-contained and not export-oriented
High Levels of UE, particularly in the South of the
Borough
Lack of inter-borough (North-South public transport links
Retail sector does not include leading quality
retail operators
Decentralised decline in manufacturing base has lead to a shortage of employment land.
Opportunities
Crossrail and Crossrail Tunnelling academy
Retail diversification/leisure economy
Product differentiation for key town centres (especially Ilford)
Modest retail and office growth
2012 Olympics, Stratford City
Low Carbon economy/’green’ jobs
Renewable energy feed-in tariffs
Green Investment District
Mayor of London’s Green Grid
Threats
Reduction of London’s weight as an international financial centre
Reduced Government spending
Lack of money/land for community
infrastructure/funding cuts
Growth of Stratford and other competing centres
Carbon Reduction Commitment
Rising energy costs
Increased growth vs. environmental impact
Climate change impacts
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Provide back office support to Canary
Wharf/Central London
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Chapter 5: Consultation
5.1. Background
5.1.1 As part of the evidence base for the Local Economic Assessment, the Local Authority has undertaken a business consultation exercise with a number of key stakeholders. Early stakeholder engagement took place at Business Partnership meetings throughout July and August 2010. There are seven Business Partnerships in Redbridge located in the seven main town centres. Interviews were also conducted with key local organisations to hear in greater depth their view of the local economy. An online survey was sent out to local business contacts (see Appendix 2), and a team of volunteers visited local businesses asking them to fill in the survey face to face.
5.1.2 The Draft LEA document was published on the Council’s website, Redbridge I, from Dec 2010 to
February 2011. Readers of the document were welcome to provide feedback where they felt appropriate.
5.2. Early Stakeholder Engagement
5.2.1 The London Borough of Redbridge has seven Town Centre Business Partnerships made up of representatives of local businesses from the specific town centres. Planning Policy Officers attended one meeting of each Partnership between July and August 2010. Officers asked for feedback on the best ways to engage and consult more broadly with businesses, as well as for comments on issues businesses are facing. A summary of these comments can be found below:
5.2.2 Suggestions on best ways to consult
A questionnaire of more than 30 questions would not be completed by most of the businesses fully. Visit each of the shops in person, perhaps with the questionnaire and go through it with them. Either
way the face-to-face approach would yield much better results in Manford Way. On-line survey may not be successful, as people will forget to do it and don’t have time. Breakfast meeting in local pub/café to discuss issues – evening/daytime meetings not ideal for
everyone Face-to-face discussion, drop- in the shops would be best approach! Need support from Business representatives for successful consultation.
5.2.3 Issues businesses are facing
Poor economy, a couple of people mentioned Saturday trading had been poor since Easter. Parking issues; lack of parking and problems with paying with credit cards on the meters. One town centre held a market but not as many people attended as they had hoped, possibly due to
advertising issues (concerned that advertising banners may cause planning issues). Pavement trading- Requirement to pay licensing for boards outside shops. Confusion over planning
restrictions. Crime, beggars, and anti social behaviour. However, the police are already doing a lot to counteract
this. Town centre needs a face-lift - both by Council and through local approach – shopkeepers pulling
together to smarten up shop fronts. Opportunity for market stalls/events outside library – bring people onto the High Street
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Rise in hot food takeaways, is a growing concern for some businesses and anti-social behaviour/noise issues.
Lack of accessible parking deters shoppers form ‘dropping in’ – biggest problem Staff training opportunities limited due to costs – ‘on-the job training’ Redbridge card is good but sometimes hard for small businesses to give regular discounts.
5.3. Formal Consultation
5.3.1 In response to feedback from the early stakeholder engagement, a formal Business Consultation was undertaken between December 2010 and January 2011. An online survey was produced and made available on the Council website, Redbridge I, and was also sent out to local business contacts through various networks. A copy of the survey can be found in Appendix 2.
5.3.2 In addition, local volunteers from Barnabas Workshops met with local businesses and asked them to
fill out the survey face to face. 5.3.3 60 responses to the survey were received in total. 5.3.4 A summary of the key findings include:
80% of businesses responding were from the privates sector. 5% were from the third/charity sector and 2% were social enterprises.
Of those surveyed there was a mixture of ownership of businesses. 21% were sole proprietorship, 21% were family owned, 21% were a partnership and 20% were private limited company.
The main reasons for the businesses surveyed to locate in Redbridge were suitability of premises (34%), Public Transport Access (30%), Access to Road Network (24%) and Proximity to Town Centres (24%).
94% of those businesses surveyed had fewer than 10 full time employees. Fewer than 10% of those businesses surveyed employed apprentices or tertiary graduates. 45% of businesses said more than 75% of their workforce lived locally within Redbridge. The majority of those surveyed felt that access, size, condition, parking and safety and crime were all
satisfactory within Redbridge. 40% of those surveyed felt that the cost of locating their business in Redbridge was poor. 35% of those surveyed felt that cleanliness of the borough was good. 51% of businesses surveyed rated Redbridge, in terms of business rates and other government fees
and charges, as poor. 54% of those surveyed stated that the main difficulty in finding the right staff was lack of job specific
skills. 30% stated their main difficulty was due to lack of motivation, punctuality and initiative of applicants.
50% of those surveyed offered flexible working to their employees. 68% said that over the next three years they were likely to keep staff numbers about the same. 21%
said they would increase staff numbers and 11% said they would be reducing staff numbers. When asked if there was anything else they would like to add, comments included: More parking and
less restrictions, attract more educated people to the area, ensure no increase in business rates, regenerate the area, bring a market to Gants Hill and improved support and guidance for businesses,
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5.4. Other Consultation Responses
5.4.1 Other responses to the Draft Consultation LEA were also received. A summary of these can be found below:
It is important to note that Childcare place sufficiency is not an exact science. However if there was one place for every child aged between 0-9 this would lead to substantial be over provision.
Although JobCentreplus clients give childcare as a barrier to seeking work, the reason behind this may not necessarily be due to insufficient childcare provision but is just as likely to be affordability or perhaps accessibility.
Although the Community Infrastructure Plan requirements state the need for children’s centres, early education could be accessed at a school nursery or a private day care setting or a voluntary sessional setting. Wherever it is delivered (Maintained, private or voluntary sector), as long as certain conditions are met, it is paid for by government grant funding via the borough (same as schools are). It is not wrong to state "children's centre" on the table but it is misleading as most children will access their early education at one of the 3 settings above, not at a children's centre. In fact there is no longer a requirement for children's centres to provide early education themselves. They do have to make sure that their clients are helped to find and access suitable early education so they will have good links with their local partners.
5.5. Case Study: Motoraid, Hainault Business Park 5.5.1 Motoraid is a German Independent Vehicle Repairer located in Hainault Business Park. The company
first opened in Hainault in October 2005, having felt there was the right cliental in the Hainault area for their business. Motoraid said that this was still the case, although the demographics of the area have changed dramatically over the last 5 years.
5.5.2 The company’s biggest concern was around transport and accessibility of Hainault Business Park.
They currently operate their own private shuttle service for customers from Hainault station to the Business Park as there are currently no other public transport services available. This is at an additional cost to the company and they feel that lack of access to their organisation has led to their Hainault branch being less successful than their Basildon Branch.
5.5.3 Nevertheless, Motoraid praised the improvements that had been seen at Hainault Business Park over
the last 5 years. Specific improvements include CCTV cameras, improved cleanliness and access to workforce development and training. Due to training from the Low Carbon Trust, Motoraid are also looking at how they can improve their carbon efficiencies.
5.5.4 Motoraid has considered relocating recently; firstly as it may reduce overheads and secondly, as they
would like to be in a more prominent location that is easily accessible. 5.5.5 Finally, Motoraid felt that not enough was being done to incentivise and attract new big business to
Redbridge.
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5.6. Summary
5.6.1 The responses to the LEA consultation have been used to update the relevant sections of the LEA and have also assisted in shaping the concluding Policy Directions section.
5.6.2 The Council will continue to work closely with local businesses to ensure their views and feedback
help to shape the Council’s policy approach towards the local economy.
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Chapter 6: Policy Directions
6.1 A Dormitory Borough
6.1.1 Nearly two thirds of employed Redbridge residents work outside the borough. Crossrail will increase the number of out-workers commuting to areas from the West End to Heathrow.
6.1.2 Within the borough, Redbridge shares the London-wide trend of falling employment in traditional “blue collar” employment. Only 5.8% of residents work in manufacturing and within Redbridge itself manufacturing accounts for only 3.5% of jobs. This historic trend is likely to continue, although the rate of decline will slow because the proportion cannot fall below zero.
6.1.3 Wholesale and retail trade, financial and professional services and public sector jobs are the mainstays of employment today. For Redbridge residents who work outside the borough, financial and professional services and public sector jobs are relatively more important. Within Redbridge, employment in the retail and wholesale trade overshadows the financial and professional services sector, but the contribution of both these sectors to employment within the borough has fallen.
6.1.4 In common with other outer London boroughs “job density” in Redbridge has been declining over time. Redbridge has been relatively successful in adding local jobs in recent years but these jobs are largely the result of increased public sector spending on health and education and are focused on meeting residential-led demand. Given the constraints on public spending in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, further growth of public sector jobs appears unlikely.
6.1.5 In short, Redbridge is - and is becoming more so - a dormitory borough, highly dependant on its access to the jobs market of inner London and with endogenous production of goods and services focused on small firms meeting local demand for retail and personal services. To what extent does this matter? What can the Council even do about it and what policy responses might be appropriate?
6.2 The Council’s Role
6.2.1 As is apparent from the preceding chapters, the economic future of Redbridge is being moulded by national and international forces, many of which are beyond the control of any local authority. Nevertheless, the Council is able to influence economic conditions in Redbridge in a number of important ways:
1. As an economic player in its own right: The Council is both the largest employer and a major land-holder in the borough. Council purchases of supplies and out-sourcing of contracts help support many local businesses.
2. Fiscally: By setting the level of Council Tax and Council fees and charges for other services. 3. Shaping the environment: By street works to improve transport and improve public safety;
ensuring waste is collected and the borough is clean etc. 4. Investing in human “capital”: Such as schools and other educational and training facilities and
services; affordable housing; providing leisure facilities and parks and gardens for recreation. 5. Managing development: By making land available for development; ensuring buildings are
sound and environmentally sustainable; processing development applications. 6. Transport: By owning a number of key roads and controlling parking arrangements across the
borough.
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7. Leading and promoting the borough: In partnership with the business community and public sector organisations to attract inward investment and foster regeneration.
6.3 Policy Responses
6.3.1 It is possible to take a pessimistic view which focuses on the loss of former industries and the narrowing of the borough’s employment base. The sort of policy responses this leads to are largely protectionist:
Concentrating regeneration efforts on local job creation. Trying to retain job levels by safeguarding land for employment uses, rather than permitting
alternative uses such as housing. Seeing our neighbouring boroughs and town centres as competitors whose every gain is a
Redbridge loss.
6.3.2 There is a more optimistic view, which begins by acknowledging that there is no such thing as a self-contained “Redbridge economy”. Along with the other outer northeast London boroughs, Redbridge does not have a self-contained labour market or discrete local economy. It is heavily integrated into the wider London economy and in particular helps provide a skilled labour force to inner and central London boroughs which themselves are heavily tied into the international economy.
6.3.3 This is undoubtedly one of the borough’s great strengths. Jobs in central London are typically better paying and the wards with the greatest proportion of people working in central London are on average less deprived and have better educated residents with lower rates of unemployment. The policy responses, which flow from this view, are largely about equipping people to access opportunities and to deal with change:
Providing children with the best possible education to maximize participation in the knowledge economy.
Providing adults with good vocational training geared to available employment. Providing employees with efficient transport to workplaces (inside or outside the borough). Providing businesses with a flexible regulatory environment to help them adapt to changing
competitive pressures and market opportunities.
6.3.4 Local businesses are likely to benefit from policies aimed at:
Growing the evening and leisure economy. Differentiating and marketing a distinct retail brand (for instance by building on the reputation of
Ilford Lane as an ethnic retailing hub). Providing niche services not found in the big shopping malls. Improving the quality and safety of the public realm. Promoting inward investment and opportunities identified through Ilford Blueprint
6.3.5 The fact that the borough provides insufficient jobs for all its residents does not matter as long as
residents are easily able to access appropriate jobs and services outside the borough. It is a good thing that many of them work in the highly productive and well remunerated financial and business services of central London. All else being equal, if Redbridge had fewer out-workers and a greater proportion of its residents were employed locally, the borough would be less wealthy as a result.
6.3.6 If residents choose to shop outside the borough, rather than in Ilford or one of the other town centres, this undoubtedly does matter for local retailers and their employees, but it is important to be
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realistic. While the good accessibility of Redbridge brings many advantages, it also makes local retailers and service suppliers vulnerable to competition from further afield. The Westfield mall at Stratford will be the largest urban shopping centre in Europe and only a few minutes by rail or underground from most of Redbridge. The borough cannot insulate itself from its effects.
6.3.7 This is not to shun local commerce and employment creation where feasible, but the emphasis should be on equipping Redbridge residents to make the most of opportunities wherever they arise and to accept that for many, this means the primary value of the borough will be as a nice place to come home to, where their children can be well educated and where life can be enjoyed with a stroll in a park or a night out.
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Appendix 1: Core Evidence to be used for all London LEAs
110 Consistent with table 12 Local Labour Market Indicators in the London Statistical Bulletin 111 Consistent with table 12 Local Labour Market Indicators in the London Statistical Bulletin 112 ONS Business Demography data 113 Where appropriate to the borough, as not all have areas in the top 20% deprived Super Output Areas 114 Currently being prepared by TfL. Measures accessibility according to where people want to travel
Indicator Data source
Resident population (both ONS mid-year estimates and GLA projections) ONS, GLA
Employment rate of working age population110 APS
Unemployment rate (both claimant and ILO)111 ONS
Number of jobs (workplace based) by broad industry group ABI
% of the working age resident population qualified to degree level or above
APS
% of the working age resident population with no qualifications APS
NI 163 - % of the working age resident population qualified to at least Level 2 or higher
APS
NI 164 - % of the working age resident population qualified to at least Level 3 or higher
APS
NI 165 - % of the working age resident population qualified to at least Level 4 or higher
APS
NI 171 – New business registration data ONS
Count of deaths of enterprises112 ONS
NI 172 - % of small businesses in an area showing employment growth (IDBR)
ONS
% of Super Output Areas (SOAs) in the 20% most deprived in England (Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007)113
CLG
Public transport accessibility levels (ATOS)114 TfL
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Appendix 2: Business Consultation Survey Redbridge Businesses 2010 Welcome to the Redbridge Business Survey 2010, part of the Council’s Local Economic Assessment. Local businesses are at the heart of Redbridge's continued growth and regeneration. The Council is seeking to revitalise town centres, improve transport connectivity and deliver supporting infrastructure; as well as making the most of opportunities such as the 2012 Olympic Games and Crossrail. As a Council we are working hard to ensure businesses are in the best possible position to thrive. This survey should take no more than 5 minutes to complete. There are 20 questions in total, most of which are multiple choice. Please answer all questions as fully as you can. The Local Economic Assessment will help ensure that the Council has a clearer understanding of the conditions required for businesses to grow, with a comparison of the economic strengths and weaknesses of the area. We will use information gathered to inform future statutory policies, including planning, licensing and highways, and to assist in the attraction of inward investment. 1: What is the nature of your business? Please describe in a few words (e.g. retail shop, manufacturing, hairdresser, real estate, vehicle repairs): …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
2: What is your business sector:
Private Sector
Public Sector
Charity Sector
Third Sector
Social Enterprise
Other (please specify) …………………………………………………………………………………………….
3: How long has it been operating?
Less than one year
Between one and two years
Between two and ten years
More than ten years
4: How is it owned?
Sole proprietorship
Partnership
Family Owned
Private limited company
Public limited company
Franchise
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5: Where is its main location? Please enter postcode:………………………………….
6: Is this location owned or rented?
Owned Rented
7: Which of the following criteria were of greatest importance in your decision to locate in Redbridge (please tick up to three boxes)?
Access to the road network
Public transport access
Land/rent values
Presence of ancillary/support services
Availability of workforce
Proximity to town centres
Historical reasons
Suitability of premises
Closer to customer base
8: Approximately how many people does your company employ and what is the gender breakdown?
Total Full Time
Male (Full Time) Female (Full Time)
Total Part Time Male (Part time) Female (Part time)
1
1
1
1 1
1
2
2
2
2 2
2
3
3
3
3 3
3
4
4
4
4 4
4
5 to 10
5 to 10
5 to 10
5 to 10 5 to 10
5 to 10
11 to 49
11 to 49
11 to 49
11 to 49 11 to 49
11 to 49
50 to 199
50 to 199
50 to 199
50 to 199 50 to 199
50 to 199
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
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9: Approximately how many of these are:
Unskilled Manual Workers
Sales & Customer Service Occupations
Personal Service Occupations
Skilled Trade Occupations
Administrative & Secretarial Occupations
Associate Professional & Technical Occupations
Professional Occupations
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5 to 10
5 to 10
5 to 10
5 to 10
5 to 10
5 to 10
5 to 10
11 to 49
11 to 49
11 to 49
11 to 49
11 to 49
11 to 49
11 to 49
50 to 199
50 to 199
50 to 199
50 to 199
50 to 199
50 to 199
50 to 199
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
Managers & Senior Officials
Apprentices?
Tertiary Graduates?
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
5 to 10
5 to 10
5 to 10
11 to 49
11 to 49
11 to 49
50 to 199
50 to 199
50 to 199
More than 200
More than 200
More than 200
10: Approximately what proportion of your workforce live locally within Redbridge?
Less than 10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% More than 75%
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11: Roughly, what percentage of supply purchases come from: Within Redbridge?
Neighbouring boroughs?
Elsewhere in London?
Elsewhere in UK? Rest of the world?
Less than 1%
1% to 5%
6% to 10%
11% to 20%
21% to 40%
41% to 60%
61% to 80%
81% to 100%
Less than 1%
1% to 5%
6% to 10%
11% to 20%
21% to 40%
41% to 60%
61% to 80%
81% to 100%
Less than 1%
1% to 5%
6% to 10%
11% to 20%
21% to 40%
41% to 60%
61% to 80%
81% to 100%
Less than 1%
1% to 5%
6% to 10%
11% to 20%
21% to 40%
41% to 60%
61% to 80%
81% to 100%
Less than 1%
1% to 5%
6% to 10%
11% to 20%
21% to 40%
41% to 60%
61% to 80%
81% to 100%
12: How do you rate the main business location on a scale from 1 to 5 in terms of:
(1= inadequate, 2=poor, 3=satisfactory, 4=good, 5=excellent)
1 2 3 4 5
Access?
Size?
Condition?
Cost?
Parking?
Cleanliness?
Safety and Crime?
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13: How do you rate Redbridge on a scale from 1 to 5 in terms of: (1= inadequate, 2=poor, 3=satisfactory, 4=good, 5=excellent)
1 2 3 4 5
Availability of skilled workforce?
Impact of business
rates and other Government fees and
charges?
Council services?
Image of the borough?
14: What are your main difficulties in finding the right staff?
Lack of literacy and numeracy skills
Lack of job specific skills
Lack of motivation, punctuality and initiative
Lack of management expertise
Lack of affordable childcare
Other (Please describe)………………………………………………………………………………………………….
15: Does your company offer flexible working to employees?
Yes
No If Yes, please describe…………………………………………………………………………………
16: Have you accessed any public funding for training costs (e.g. Train to Gain) and do you have any links to Further Education establishments?
Yes (Please describe)……………………………………………………………………………………………………
No
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17: What could the London Borough of Redbridge and its partners do to support your organisation to grow and improve skills of the local workforce? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
18: In the next 3 years is the business likely to:
Increase staff numbers? Decrease staff numbers? Keep staff numbers about the same?
19: If you have considered relocating, what are the main reasons for doing this?
To be closer to customer base
To have more suitable labour available
To reduce business costs
To find a more suitable premises
To be safer and more secure
To have more parking available
To benefit from an area with a better image
I have not considered relocating
20: If there is anything more you would like to add or anything else you think the Council should consider in an assessment of the economy, please say so here. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Thank you for taking the time to complete this survey. Please return it to the Council using the following freepost address:,
Local Economic Assessment – Business Survey Freepost RLSR-JACE-HSUG London Borough of Redbridge PO Box 2 Town Hall 128-142 High Road Ilford IG1 1DD
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Appendix 3: Business Consultation Survey Results
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