livi bacci, chapter 2: demographic growth, choice & constraint

1491/2+: Paradise, Purgatory, & Hell

Livi Bacci, Chapter 2: Livi Bacci, Chapter 2: Demographic growth, choice & constraintDemographic growth, choice & constraint

1.1. Constraint, choice and adaptationConstraint, choice and adaptation2.2. Hunters to farmers, the neolithic Hunters to farmers, the neolithic

demographic transitiondemographic transition3.3. Black death and demographic decline in Black death and demographic decline in

EuropeEurope4.4. The tragedy of the American IndiosThe tragedy of the American Indios5.5. The French Canadians: a demographic The French Canadians: a demographic

success storysuccess story6.6. Ireland, Japan: 2 islands, 2 historiesIreland, Japan: 2 islands, 2 histories


Livi Bacci, Chapter 2: Livi Bacci, Chapter 2: Demographic growth, choice & constraintDemographic growth, choice & constraint

1.1. Constraint, choice and adaptationConstraint, choice and adaptationa)a) Demographic growth and environmental constraints Demographic growth and environmental constraints

(dynamic, influenced by human activity)(dynamic, influenced by human activity)b)b) Constraints: climate, disease, land, energy, food, Constraints: climate, disease, land, energy, food,

space, settlement patternsspace, settlement patternsc)c) Choices: behavioral flexibility, adjusting Choices: behavioral flexibility, adjusting

population to constraints & changing the population to constraints & changing the constraintsconstraints

d)d) Adaptation: Adaptation: reproductionreproduction: age at access to reproduction (marriage), % : age at access to reproduction (marriage), % marrying, sexual taboos, duration of lactation, abortion, marrying, sexual taboos, duration of lactation, abortion, infanticideinfanticidemigrationmigration: escape environmental constraints: escape environmental constraints


2. From foragers to farmers: 2. From foragers to farmers: the neolithic demographic transitionthe neolithic demographic transition

a)a) 12,000 years ago: the beginnings of agriculture12,000 years ago: the beginnings of agricultureb)b) Increased population densities, growth rates (~0.4% Increased population densities, growth rates (~0.4%

per annum)per annum)c)c) Raised the ceiling of environmental constraints (fig. Raised the ceiling of environmental constraints (fig.

2.1)2.1)d)d) Shifted the balance toward successShifted the balance toward success

small populations – fragile, vulnerablesmall populations – fragile, vulnerablelarger populations – greater stability larger populations – greater stability

e)e) 2 theories on increased growth (fig. 2.2):2 theories on increased growth (fig. 2.2):1) mortality declined due to better nutrition1) mortality declined due to better nutrition2) mortality increased, but fertility increased even 2) mortality increased, but fertility increased even more (Ancient Americas?)more (Ancient Americas?)


3. Black Death and demographic decline in 3. Black Death and demographic decline in Europe (1340-1400)Europe (1340-1400)

a)a) 1000 AD: accelerated demographic growth in Europe1000 AD: accelerated demographic growth in Europeb)b) ~1300 demographic crises increased in frequency and intensity ~1300 demographic crises increased in frequency and intensity

(depletion of land?, unfavorable climate?)(depletion of land?, unfavorable climate?)c)c) When the plague struck (1347) demographic catastrophe When the plague struck (1347) demographic catastrophe

ensued (fig. 2.3)ensued (fig. 2.3)d)d) Plague (bacillus Plague (bacillus yersinia pestisyersinia pestis) transmitted by fleas carried by ) transmitted by fleas carried by

rats or micerats or micee)e) Case fatality rates: 2/3 to 4/5 of those infected (crude death rate Case fatality rates: 2/3 to 4/5 of those infected (crude death rate

~100 to 500 per thousand)~100 to 500 per thousand)f)f) Successive epidemic waves every 10-15 years engulfed Europe, Successive epidemic waves every 10-15 years engulfed Europe,

successive waves less intensesuccessive waves less intenseg)g) Finally disappeared ~1700Finally disappeared ~1700h)h) Demographic recovery (decline in age at marriage, baby Demographic recovery (decline in age at marriage, baby

boomlets, decline in background mortality)boomlets, decline in background mortality)


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4. 1491: of paradise, purgatory and 4. 1491: of paradise, purgatory and hell? …Main points:hell? …Main points:

» 1491: Americas: paradise for some, purgatory for 1491: Americas: paradise for some, purgatory for many—even at Machu Picchu, the Inca’s “paradise”.many—even at Machu Picchu, the Inca’s “paradise”.

» 1492+: Demographic disaster cannot be explained by 1492+: Demographic disaster cannot be explained by disease alonedisease alone

» The virgin soil thesis may be correct for small The virgin soil thesis may be correct for small populations, but not for large ones: Mexico, Perupopulations, but not for large ones: Mexico, Peru» Mexico:Mexico:

» Two of three major epidemics were native diseasesTwo of three major epidemics were native diseases» Smallpox struck only twice in 16Smallpox struck only twice in 16thth century: 1520, 1538 century: 1520, 1538

» Peru:Peru:» Disaster began before virgin soil epidemics struckDisaster began before virgin soil epidemics struck» Smallpox did not enter until 1558 Smallpox did not enter until 1558


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1491: Pristine Paradise?1491: Pristine Paradise?Followed by tragedy!Followed by tragedy!

• Ancient America was no paradise:Ancient America was no paradise:– slow rate of natural increaseslow rate of natural increase– widespread paleopathologieswidespread paleopathologies– diminishing heightdiminishing height

• Demographic catastrophe of Christian Demographic catastrophe of Christian conquest and colonization conquest and colonization

• Causes of catastrophe:Causes of catastrophe:– Virgin soil epidemics? Virgin soil epidemics? – War?War?– Exploitation?Exploitation?


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Hard Times in Ancient MexicoHard Times in Ancient Mexico» Epidemics happened (e.g., Epidemics happened (e.g., matlazahuatlmatlazahuatl, a severe , a severe

form of typhus?), but not European crowd form of typhus?), but not European crowd diseases like smallpox, measles, malaria, yellow diseases like smallpox, measles, malaria, yellow fever, or bubonic plague.fever, or bubonic plague.

» Epidemics in 1450, 1456, 1496, and 1507 Epidemics in 1450, 1456, 1496, and 1507 (according to (according to Anales de CuahtitlanAnales de Cuahtitlan))

» ““There’s hardly a person who walks who doesn’t There’s hardly a person who walks who doesn’t complain of the bowels.”complain of the bowels.”

» Skeletal archaeology shows porotic hyperostosis Skeletal archaeology shows porotic hyperostosis as nearly universal (perhaps due to extreme as nearly universal (perhaps due to extreme dependence on corn). dependence on corn).


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11rabbitrabbit(1454):(1454):

“a“agreatgreat

hungerhungerkilledkilledmany many of the of the

people”people”


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Background demography: Background demography: a high pressure systema high pressure system

» Crude birth rate: ~60 per thousandCrude birth rate: ~60 per thousand» Early, universal marriage (vs. Western Europe with Early, universal marriage (vs. Western Europe with

late marriage, and high % celibate)late marriage, and high % celibate)

» Total fertility rate = 8 children (higher than Europe)Total fertility rate = 8 children (higher than Europe)

» Crude death rate = ~55 per thousandCrude death rate = ~55 per thousand


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Precocious marriage among Precocious marriage among the Aztecsthe Aztecs

• The Codex Mendoza (1540) shows The Codex Mendoza (1540) shows the life stages of boys and girls: the life stages of boys and girls: marriage is celebrated at age 15 (and marriage is celebrated at age 15 (and not at 18, 20 or 25 as often stated by not at 18, 20 or 25 as often stated by historians):historians):


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Marriage (at 15)Marriage (at 15)

15:15:


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Female age at marriage: Female age at marriage: Italy vs. MexicoItaly vs. Mexico

• Italy: FlorenceItaly: Florence PratoPrato14271427 17.6 years17.6 years 13721372 16.316.314581458 19.519.5 14271427 17.617.614801480 20.820.8 14701470 21.121.1

• Mexico: AztecsMexico: Aztecs1538: 12.81538: 12.8(a high pressure demographic system)(a high pressure demographic system)


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The Amerindian mode of The Amerindian mode of reproductionreproduction

• 1. 1. Precocious marriagePrecocious marriage: a solution to high : a solution to high mortality, a high pressure demographic regime mortality, a high pressure demographic regime (paleolithic).(paleolithic).

• 2. 2. Societies that did not learnSocieties that did not learn to maximize their to maximize their reproduction, reproduction, disappeared.disappeared.

• 3. 3. Those that did, survivedThose that did, survived--and survived the --and survived the biological conquest of the Americas, “the biological conquest of the Americas, “the greatest demographic catastrophe in human greatest demographic catastrophe in human history” (Woodrow Borah).history” (Woodrow Borah).


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• Ancient America was no paradiseAncient America was no paradiseslow rate of natural increaseslow rate of natural increasewidespread paleopathologieswidespread paleopathologiesdiminishing heightdiminishing height


• Causes of catastrophe: Causes of catastrophe: Virgin soil epidemics? Virgin soil epidemics? Exploitation? Exploitation? Care? Care?


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Demographic catastrophe in 16th Demographic catastrophe in 16th century Mexico: 50%+ declinecentury Mexico: 50%+ decline


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First epidemic, First epidemic, 1520:1520:

““Large bumps spread on Large bumps spread on people, some were people, some were entirely covered. entirely covered. They spread They spread everywhere, on the everywhere, on the face, the head, the face, the head, the chest, etc. chest, etc. [The disease] brought [The disease] brought great desolation; a great desolation; a great many died of it.”great many died of it.”

--Sahagun, --Sahagun, General HistoryGeneral History


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Codice Codice Santa Santa

Maria:Maria:darkened darkened faces show faces show deaths—deaths—

many due to many due to cocoliztli, cocoliztli,

15461546


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• Ancient America was no paradiseAncient America was no paradiseslow rate of natural increaseslow rate of natural increasewidespread paleopathologieswidespread paleopathologiesdiminishing heightdiminishing height


• Causes of catastrophe: Causes of catastrophe: Virgin soil epidemics? Virgin soil epidemics? War?War?Exploitation? Exploitation?


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First epidemic: little effect on the First epidemic: little effect on the outcome of the conquestoutcome of the conquest

» Chronology: Chronology: » Spaniards defeated June 30, 1520Spaniards defeated June 30, 1520» Epidemic erupted in late Sept.Epidemic erupted in late Sept.» Ended in December Ended in December » Siege began April, 1521.Siege began April, 1521.» City fell August 14, 1521.City fell August 14, 1521.

» Hugh Thomas, Hugh Thomas, Conquest of MexicoConquest of Mexico (1993): : “Extravagant” the notion that the smallpox “Extravagant” the notion that the smallpox epidemic had an effect on the outcome of the epidemic had an effect on the outcome of the conquest.conquest.


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Demographic catastrophe and Demographic catastrophe and its causes: viruses, Black Legend its causes: viruses, Black Legend

and the social context of epidemicsand the social context of epidemics Alonso de Zorita (~1565): “...and it is certain that from the day Alonso de Zorita (~1565): “...and it is certain that from the day

that D. Hernando Cortes, the Marquis del Valle, entered this landthat D. Hernando Cortes, the Marquis del Valle, entered this land......the natives suffered many deaths, and many terrible dealings, the natives suffered many deaths, and many terrible dealings, robberies and oppressions were inflicted on themrobberies and oppressions were inflicted on them, , taking advantage of their persons and their lands, without order, taking advantage of their persons and their lands, without order, weight nor measure; weight nor measure; ...the people diminished in great number, ...the people diminished in great number, as much due to as much due to excessive taxes and mistreatment, as to illness and smallpoxexcessive taxes and mistreatment, as to illness and smallpox, such , such that now a very great and notable fraction of the people are gone, that now a very great and notable fraction of the people are gone, and especially in the hot countryand especially in the hot country.”


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Summary: Summary: » 1491: Americas: paradise for some, purgatory for 1491: Americas: paradise for some, purgatory for

many.many.» 1492+: Demographic disaster cannot be explained by 1492+: Demographic disaster cannot be explained by

disease alonedisease alone» The virgin soil thesis may be correct for small The virgin soil thesis may be correct for small

populations, but not for large ones: Mexico, Perupopulations, but not for large ones: Mexico, Peru» Mexico:Mexico:

» Two of three major epidemics were native diseasesTwo of three major epidemics were native diseases» Smallpox struck only twice in 16Smallpox struck only twice in 16thth century: 1520, 1538 century: 1520, 1538

» Peru:Peru:» Disaster began before virgin soil epidemics struckDisaster began before virgin soil epidemics struck» Smallpox did not enter until 1558 Smallpox did not enter until 1558


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ENDEND

livi bacci, chapter 2: demographic growth, choice & constraint

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demographic decline

demographic disaster

demographic crises

accelerated demographic

demographic recovery

demographic catastrophe

increased growth

growth rates