Livestock development in a

changing climate

M. Herrero, P. K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Moyo

Livestock and Fisheries Policies for Food Security in a Changing ClimateFANRPAN Annual meeting, 30th August – 3rd September, 2010, Windhoek, Namibia

– Background

– Living with uncertainty

– Climate change impacts

– Mitigation and Adaptation

– Conclusions

Outline

– Agriculture in Africa is changing rapidly

– Need to try to understand how production systems will change in the future: the target is moving!

– for designing a more coherent and dynamic research and policy agenda that benefits the poor

– for targeting investments more adequately

– For reducing vulnerability and poverty

Background

Lots of drivers of future change

Population / Urbanization

Growth in demand and its nature

Increased competition for natural resources

Trade / exchange of knowledge and

products

Climate change – warmer and more variable

Why is climate change so important to agriculture-based countries?

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rainfall variation around the mean

GDP growth

de Jong (2005), World Bank (2005)

Ethiopia: Rainfall Variability and Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Climate change: we need to act even when

there are large uncertainties!

2007 IPCC AR4: effects of warming evident; cost of reducing emissions far less than damage they will cause

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t C

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Fossil fuel emissions Tropical LUC Temperate LUC

Climate change recognised long ago…

Climate change science timeline

1859Tyndall: some gases absorb IR; could drive climate change

1897 Chamberlin: model of global C exchange

1956 Phillips: 1st somewhat realistic global climate model

1938 Callendar: CO2 greenhouse global warming is underway

1896 Arrhenius: 1st calculation of anthropogenic global warming

1995 IPCC 2nd report: “signature of human activities”

1988 IPCC established; 1st report 1990

1976 Deforestation recognized as important driver of climate change

1958 Keeling: Atm. CO2 measurements begin at Mauna Loa

1930s Global warming trend since late 19th century reported

Courtesy of R. Conant

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Fossil fuel emissions Tropical LUC Temperate LUC

But the policy frameworks have been slowly implemented

Climate policy timeline2008-2012: 1st Kyoto compliance period

2005: Kyoto into effect

2001: Marrakech accords

1997: Kyoto Protocol

1992: US Energy policy act; incl. Section 1605(b)

1992: Rio Treaty – establishes UNFCCC

A modest proposal?

Near-term implementation of a global policy that affects all parts of everyone’s lives.

Courtesy of R. Conant

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Region Dec-Jan Jun-Aug

Sahara Small decrease

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West Africa Inconsistent Inconsistent

East Africa Small increase (5-20%)

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Southern Africa Inconsistent Large decrease (>20%)

GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B scenario). IPCC, 2007

What are the impacts of climate change on livestock

systems?

Change in Length of Growing Period (%) to 2090s: Ensemble mean, +5°C(18 GCMs, 3 SRES scenarios)

Coefficient of variation of the change in LGP to 2090s: Ensemble mean, +5°C

Thornton, Jones, Ericksen, Challinor (2010)

Mostly mediated via changes in habitat / ecosystems

Not completely understood

Significant implications for:Land useFood securityProduction of feedsDistribution of diseases and/or their vectors (i.e. tryps)Water availabilityBiodiversityGreen house gas emissions (i.e methane)

Increased frequency of climatic extreme events (drought/floods)erosion, soil degradation

Climate change impacts on livestock systems

Economic impacts of increased drought frequencies in pastoral and agro-pastoral systems in Kenya to 2030

Herrero et al. 2010

Indicator value

Cattle numbers 2000 (million TLU)1

Cattle numbers 2030 drought 1 in 5 years (million TLU) 1

Cattle numbers 2030 drought 1 in 3 years (million TLU) 2

Animals lost due to increased drought freq. (million TLU) 2

Cumulative milk production lost (million kg) 3

Cumulative meat production lost (million kg) 4

Value of lost animals (million $)Value of lost milk production (million $)3

Value of lost meat production (million $)4

Total economic losses / year (million $)

5.65.94.11.88371.44581675630

Other key issues in scarce resource situations

Power structures

Governance

Equity

Vulnerability

Climate change impacts on livestock systems

Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa

Many people who have contributed least to climate change may suffer the greatest livelihood consequences

ILRI with the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) and The Energy Resources Institute (TERI)

Most vulnerable Second-most vulnerable

Severe climate change impacts

Some MRA systems in Sahel Mixed rainfed and highland perennial systems in Great Lakes region of E Africa LGA systems in parts of E Africa

MRA, LGA systems in large parts of Sahel Livestock systems and some mixed systems in parts of E and southern Africa Coastal systems in E and parts of southern Africa

Moderate climate change impacts

Mixed systems in parts of E Africa

Coastal systems of parts of W Africa Tree crop systems in parts of W Africa Forest-based systems in central Africa Root-based and root-mixed systems in south central Africa

Combining climate change hotspots with vulnerability hot-spots After Thornton et al. (2006)

Adaptation to climate change in livestock systems

Adaptation options will depend largely on the how we shape the world

• Several options exist though largely dependent on our vision of world development and how it plays out in different regions

• Lots of scenarios and uncertainty!

• Different paradigms of agricultural development (industrial vs pro-poor smallholders, large vs family farms)

• Globalisation and trade patterns• Consumption patterns• Carbon constraints• Roles and incentives for technology adoption• Growth in other sectors• Power relationships

Main types of options

• Sustainable intensification

• Extensification

• Income diversification

• Exit from agriculture

• All require a mixture of management, technology / supporting policies and investments

• No single path best, mixtures required in different parts of the world

Some examples of adaptation options

• Breed or species changes

• Rangeland management

• Development of water sources

• Supplemental feeds

• Disease control and surveillance

• Policies, support tools and regulations (including insurance, early warning, etc)

• Payments for ecosystems services (carbon, wildlife…)

• Alternative activities: fish farming, more cropping, horticulture where possible, other livestock (chickens)

• Off farm-income

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From croppers to livestock keepers

Areas where cropping of an indicator cereal may become unviable between now and 2050 and where farmers may have to rely more on livestock as a livelihood strategy

Jones & Thornton (2008)

From cows to camels

• Samburu herdsmen

• Reduction in cattle numbers and adoption of camels widespread

• Less mortality, more milk = more

food and income security

• Healthier children (reduced infant mortality)

• Government supported programmes

Mitigation

Mitigation options

• Hand in hand with adaptation options

• Reductions in emissions: significant potential!

– Managing demand for animal products

– Improved / intensified diets for ruminants

– Reduction of animal numbers

– Reduced livestock-induced deforestation

– Change of animal species

– Feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation

– Manure management (feed additives, methane production, regulations for manure disposal)

Herrero and Thornton 2009, Herrero et al. 2009

Can we untap the potential for carbon sequestration in rangeland systems?

Potential for carbonsequestration in rangelands(Conant and Paustian 2002)

Largest land use system

Potentially a large C sink

Could be an important income diversification source

Difficulties in:Measuring and monitoring C stocks

Establishment of payment schemes

Dealing with mobile pastoralists

Conclusions

• Need to act under uncertainty

• Impacts of climate change on livestock and agriculture in Southern Africa heterogeneous but potentially severe

• A game of winners and losers

• Need significant investment in adaptation (infra-structure, markets will be essential)

• Adaptation: No silver bullets, suites of alternatives

• Mitigation: can we untap the potential for carbon sequestration? Other practices relatively easy

• ‘Good development is the best solution for dealing with climate change and variability’ (Gerald Nelson)

Thank you