lithium-ion battery raw material supply and demand 2016 2025 battery raw material supply and … ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Lithium-Ion Battery Raw
Material Supply and
Demand 2016 – 2025
AVICENNE ENERGY
Mike SANDERS
June 19th, 2017
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2016 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
0
1000
2000
3000
2000 2016
Mill
ion
Un
its
/ ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
165 M Portable
PCs
195 M Tablets
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2016
Mill
ion
Un
its/
Ye
ar
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
2,6
0,15
0
1
2
3
2000 2016
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
7 000
211 000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2000 2016
Ton
s
Tons of cathode active materials
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2016
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
MW
h Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 3
CAGR Li-ion 2010-2016: +25%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
500 000
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
16
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 4
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
902
000
20
052
010
20
1320
142
015
20
16
Bill
ion
US
$
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
69 BILLION US$ in 2016 – Pack level1
8% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2006-2016)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990
2000
2005
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
Bill
ion
US$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
E-BIKES
POWER TOOLS
PORTABLE
SLI
SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…
PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,
POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others
(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,
AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 5
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
IN 2016: US $ 69 BILLION
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000EV, E-Bus
Portable
SLI
Others
ESS
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
Lead Acid LIB Others
Others
ESS
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
US $ 23
Billion for
“other”
applications
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 6
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS
7
(1) Cell level Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017
90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1)
5 675 M small cells
CAGR 2006/2016
+23 % per year in Volume
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
200
020
01
200
220
03
200
420
05
200
620
07
200
820
09
201
020
11
201
220
13
201
420
15
201
6
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2016
Others
Industrial,ESS
Auto, E-busChina
Auto, e-busExcl. China
Electronicdevices
Phones 17%
Portable PC 66%
Portable Electronics
17%
2000: < 2GWh
2016: 90 GWh
Electronic devices
35%
Auto, E-bus Excl. China
17% Auto, E-bus
China 33%
Industrial, ESS 5% Others
10%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS CAGR 2006/2016
+23% per year in Volume
Cell: +17% per year in value
Pack: +18% per year in value
8 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
20
052
006
20
072
008
20
092
010
20
1120
12
20
132
014
20
152
016
M$
Li-ion cells
M$, Worldwide, 2005-2016
Others
Industrial,ESS
Auto, E-busChina
Auto, e-busExcl. China
Electronicdevices -
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
201
42
01
52
01
6
M$
Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2016
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
+90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1)
5 675 M small cells
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST
IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS
RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT
9
Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%P
rod
uct
ion
co
st
LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV pouch cell NMC
Operating profit
Proces Yield
Depreciation
SGA, overhead
R&D
Utility
Labor
Material
Cathode cost 22%
Anode cost 6%
Electrolyte 6%
Separator 7%
Other materials
11%
Depreciation 14%
Direct labor 4%
Energy, utilities
4%
R&D 6%
Sales & Adm 3%
Overheads 3%
Warranty 3%
Margin 7%
Cell Process Yield, Scraps
4%
Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2016
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND
10
CATHODE
211 OOO T in 2016
Revenues: 4,75 B$
CAGR 06/16: +14%
ANODE
104 000 T
Revenues: 1,16 B$
CAGR 06/16: +13%
ELECTROLYTE
103 000 T
Revenues: 1,4 B$
CAGR 06/16 : 19%
SEPARATOR
1 500 M m²
Revenues: 1,6 B$
CAGR 06/16 : 15%
CELL
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
22,5 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
ANCILLARY
Revenues: 1,5 B$
PACK
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
31 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
11
LIB CATHODE MATERIAL
Cathode raw materials market
LiCoO2 (LCO)
LiMn2O4 (LMO)
LiMPO4(1) (LFP)
Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC
Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 – NCA Source: SANYO, March 2011
(1) M= Fe or Mn
Source: LME
0
50
100
150
$/k
g
Ni & Co price 2003-2015
Ni
Co
Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2012 – Nice ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
CATHODE ACTIVE
MATERIALS NEEDS Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2010-
2016 (Demand)
(…)
LEADERS:
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Ton
s LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Rationales
In 2016, LCO is used in pouch cells for electronic devices: smartphones, tablets, ultra thin portable PCs
NMC is used in other electronic devices & xEV
NCA is used by 18650 Panasonic cells in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO in other xEV
LMO is mostly used as a blend with NMC in xEV
LFP is used in xEV, e-buses in China and for industrial applications
12
67 000
211 000
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
13
LCO DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025:+4% LCO demand details LCO Offer in 2016
LCO summary of outlook
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
LCO Price forecasts
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
Ton
s
LCO: Tablets, Smartphones
Others
Industrials
E-bus
xEV China
xEV
UMICORE 15%
NICHIA 8%
ShanShan 10%
Xiamen Tungsten
(XTC) 7%
Reshine 9%
B&M 12%
L&F 16%
Pulead 12%
Easpring 9%
Others 2%
19
29
19 21 21
14
9
7 6 5
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
$ /
kg
Material Others
Demand: LCO was used in most of the pouch cell lithium ion batteries for electronic devices like smartphones & tablets. Most OEM (Samsung, Apple, etc..) confirm that LCO will be the first choice for the future. Then, for portable PCs, penetration of LCO will increase thanks to thinner high end portable PC using pouch cells. LCO will not be used in large format cells where NMC is preferred.
Price: if the metal price are stable from 2016 to 2025, small cost decrease thanks to scale economy. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (Pulead, ShanShan, Reshine) will keep the lead. Not sure that Nichia will stay at the top.
Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg – Co price @ 56$/kg in June 2017 !
ELEC
CHINA 61%
OTHERS 39%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
14
NMC DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025: +20% NMC demand details NMC Offer in 2016
NMC evolution
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
NMC Price forecasts
Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg - – Ni stable @ 12$/kg / Co price @ 56$/kg in June 2017 !
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
2010 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
NMC: Electronics, EV, others Others
Industrials
E-bus
xEV China
xEV
Power Tools, E-bikes
Other Electronics
Portable PCs
Smart Phones, Tablets
UMICORE 12%
NICHIA 9%
ShanShan 12%
Jinhe 7% Xiamen
Tungsten 10%
L&F 9%
Pulead 1%
Kelong 2%
Easpring 8%
Tianjiao 6%
Dahua 2%
Internal 14%
Others 8%
10
20
30
40
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
$ /
kg
NMC 532 NMC 622 NMC 811 NMC 111
0%
50%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025
811
622
532
111
Demand: Except xEV in China, NMC is driven by xEV: Nissan will switch from NCA-LMO to NMC for example. Then, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda all choose NMC. From 2012 to 2016 the clear trend was to switch from LMO-NMC 75/25 to LMO-NMC 25/75. LG, Panasonic and Samsung agreed that NMC will be the 1st choice for xEV first in Japan, US and Europe, and then, in 2020 in China. Price will decrease thanks to process manufacturing improvement. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (ShanShan) will keep the lead. LG and Samsung will outsource more (Internal part will decrease). As new entrant, BASF try to be on this market since 2011. There market share may increase.
NMC summary of outlook
ELEC
AUTO
E-Bus
IND OTH
CHINA 55%
OTHERS 45%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
15
NCA DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025: +16% NCA demand details NCA Offer in 2016
NCA evolution
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
NCA Price forecasts
Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium hydroxide stable @ 12 $/kg - – Ni stable @ 12$/kg BUT Co price @ 56$/kg in June 2017 !
Demand: NCA are also used in electronic devices, in prismatic and cylindrical cells. Main NCA users in electronic devices are Panasonic, Sony and Samsung. They will keep using NCA but LCO will stay the first choice. Panasonic and Samsung confirm that they supply more and more power tools mfg with NCA (from 15% in 2015 to 25% in 2025). Other NCA usage is of course for the TESLA. We do not think TESLA will switch for another technology in the next years.
Price decrease thanks to better mfg. process
Supplier: Sumitomo will keep the lead thanks to Panasonic / Tesla. Toda Kogyo market share will probably increase thanks to BASF partnership.
NCA summary of outlook
ELEC
AUTO IND
OTH
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
2010 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
NCA: Tesla Others
Industrials
E-bus
xEV China
xEV
Power Tools, E-bikes
Other Electronics
Portable PCs
Smart Phones, Tablets
SUMITOMO 73%
TODA KOGYO 10%
ECOPRO 5%
Nihon Kagaku Sangyo
5%
KELONG 5%
Others 2%
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2015 2020 2025
$ /
kg
Material Others
0%
50%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025
Ni 90%
Ni 87%
Ni 83%
CHINA 7%
OTHERS 93%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
16
LFP DEMAND: CAGR 2016-2025:+8% LFP demand details LFP Offer in 2016
LFP summary of outlook
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
LFP Price forecasts
LFP demand is driven by xEV, E-Bus in China, e-bikes and Stationary application. Chinese industrial agreed that E-bikes, e-bus and stationary app will use LFP for the next 10 years. The cost and the life time are the main criteria and Energy density is not so important. Then, Chinese xEV mfg. (BYD, Kandi, Zotye, Baic, Chery…) told us that they will switch from LFP to NMC.
Price: Process manufacturing cost will decrease. Pulead forecast price @ 11-12$/kg in 2025.
Suppliers: Pulead will probably increase market share thanks to new contract with BYD and others Chinese battery mfg.
Assumption: 2016-2025 : Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
2010 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
LFP: Industrial, E-Bus Others
Industrials
E-bus
xEV China
xEV
Power Tools, E-bikes
Other Electronics
Portable PCs
Smart Phones, Tablets
Pulead 13%
JOHNSON MATTHEY
4%
ALEEES 3%
Tatung 1%
Zhuoneng 6%
Kelong 2% STL
5%
BTR Energy 3%
BYD 8%
Internal 27%
Others 28%
Internal: BYD, Hefei Guoxuan High Tech Power source (Gxgk), Huanyu Power Source Co., Ltd., LG, A123 (Wanxiang EV Co., Ltd), Hi Power - Others: Hunan Haorun Technology, Henan Tianke, Likai , Tiehu Energy and many others
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2015 2020 2025
$ /
kg
Material Others
AUTO
E-BUS
IND
OTH
CHINA 92%
OTHERS 8%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
17
LMO DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025:-12% LMO demand details LMO Offer in 2015
LMO summary of outlook
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
LMO Price forecasts
Demand: LMO is almost never the first choice for Lithium ion cathode. But, LMO is low cost and bring stability to the cathode. LMO is used in power tools and will be used, blended with NMC. So, for the future, LMO demand will be mostly driven by NMC/LMO blended cathode used in EV worldwide, EV in China to replace LFP (2020) and later E-bus in China (2025).
Price: LMO price decreased a lot from 2010 to 2015. We think we almost achieve the lowest possible level.
Suppliers: Most of the supply will stay in China (ShanShan, Qyanyun, …).
Assumption: Lithium carbonate price 2016 – 2025 stable @ 10 $/kg
AUTO
OTH
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
2010 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
LMO: AUTO Others
Industrials
E-bus
xEV China
xEV
Power Tools, E-bikes
Other Electronics
Portable PCs
Smart Phones, Tablets
Nichia 5%
Nippon Denko
4% Yuan Yuan
5%
JGC 12%
Qyanyun 14%
ShanShan 9%
Others 18%
Reshine 9%
Mitsui 12%
POSCO ESM 12%
0
5
10
15
2010 2015 2020 2025
$ /
kg
Material Others
CHINA 60%
OTHERS 40%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL
FORECASTS 2000-2025 Cathode active materials
2000-2025 - Tons
Cathode active materials in 2016
> 210 000 Tons
18
ASSUMPTIONS:
Portable devices: 2015-2025: +6% per year in volume
HEV: 2,5 M HEV/year in 2020, 3,3 M HEV in 2025
P-HEV: 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025
EV: 0,4 M EV/year in 2020 + 0,7 M in China, 0,7 M/year + 1 M in China in 2025, 100% LIB
Industrial & stationary: 2015-2025: +16% per year
Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (+250 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)
LCO 21%
NMC 26% NCA
9% LMO 8%
LFP 36%
Cathode active materials in 2025
540 000 Tons
LCO 12%
NMC 54%
NCA 12%
LMO 1%
LFP 21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
19
ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS
104 000 TONS IN 2016 LIB Anode Materials
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Source: Sanyo, March 2013
LIB Anode market, (Tons)
LIB Anode Materials
Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
To
ns
LTO
Si or Sn Type
Amorphous Carbon
Artificial Graphite
Natural Graphite
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
ANODE FOR LIB IN 2016
20
Natural graphite become a commodity
Source: Hitachi Chemical
(…)
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Hard Carbon Soft Carbon Graphite
Capacity (/g) 400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g
Capacity (/cc)
++ 0 +
Power ++ + 0
Stability ++ + 0
Cyclability ++ + 0
Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,
cellulose, wood,
coconuts…
Petroleum coke
Natural or petroleum
coke
COST 2015->2020
25 -> 20 $/kg 20->15 $/kg 7-13-> 6-10 $/kg
SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR…
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Natural Graphite
46%
Artificial Graphite
43%
Amorphous 7%
Si or Sn Type 2% LTO
2%
Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2016)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
21
NATURAL GRAPHITE: CAGR 2015-2025: +4% Natural Graphite demand details NG Offer in 2016
NG summary of outlook NG Price forecasts
Demand: small growth because new app. Need artificial Gr. This demand may change if the price decrease is more important for NG compare to AG. Price: The price will decrease fast because the supply is huge. Already over supply in China ( Capacity: BTR 30 000 Tons, Zichen: 10 000 Tons, Shinzom: 10 000 Tons, Sinuo: 8 000 Tons, Qingdao: 8 000 Tons, Jianxi Zhentuo: 7000 Tons, Kimwan: 5 000 Tons…). Then, a lot of new projects in China and Canada: Focus Graphite > 40000 Tons/year (2020*), Northern Graphite > 20 000 Tons/year (after 2018*) Syrah Resources Ltd. > 80 000 Tons (2020*)
Suppliers: BTR and new Chinese (Zichen thanks to ATL, - Shinzom thanks to BYD, CATL – Sinuo etc…). New entrant like Focus Graphite, Northern Graphite, or Syrah Resources Ltd. May change the market share in the future
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
HITACHI 11%
Shenzhen BTR 49% Mitsubishi
16%
Nippon Carbon
4%
POSCO Chemtech
4%
Others 16%
CHINA 65%
OTHERS 35%
Typical Product D50= 16 mm 350 mAh/g
5% irreversible cap. BET: 1m²/g
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2015 2020 2025
$ /
kg
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
* Subject to financing
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
22
ARTIFICIAL GR.:CAGR 2015-2025: +15% Artificial Graphite demand details Artificial Graphite Offer in 2016
Artificial Graphite summary of outlook
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Artificial Graphite Price forecasts Demand: The demand will increase fast thanks to xEV market. Long life time requirement involve high level of purity and high consistancy, difficult to achieve with Natural Graphite.
Price will decrease fast thanks to better process efficiency, new process
Supply: Thanks to the best quality, Hitachi will keep the lead but Chinese main suppliers market share will increase (ShanShan mostly).
Production Capacity: Hitachi: 15 000 Tons, ShanShan: 15 000 Tons project in Lingang Park (Shanghai) to add 20 000 Tons/year, Mitsubishi: 7 000 Tons, JFE: 7000 Tons, Showa Denko: 3000 Tons
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s HITACHI 31%
Shanshan 38%
Mitsubishi 9%
JFE 11%
Showa Denko
5%
Others 6% CHINA
45% OTHERS 55%
Typical Product D50= 20 mm 365 mAh/g
1-5% irreversible cap. BET: 0,5m²/g
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2015 2020 2025
$ /
kg
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2016
LIB separator market, M$ - CAGR 2006/2016: +15% Supplier, market share in 2016
23
Others: Shanghai Energy, Newmi, JGP, TDK, In house (BYD), Mingzhu, Tianfeng, Yiteng, BNE…
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
M$ Mm²
ASAHI 17%
TORAY 15%
SUMITOMO 6%
ENTEK 4%
SK 9% CELGARD
8%
UBE 6%
Senior 3%
Green 3%
Others 19%
Jinhui 4%
W-Scope 6%
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
In February 2015, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy Storage
segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore’s battery separator business
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS
103 000 TONS IN 2016 LIB electrolyte market, Tons,
CAGR 2006/2016: +28%
LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in
2016
24
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ton
s
Portables electronics Power Tools
E-bikes Automotive (12v, HEV, PHEV, EV)
Auto & E-Bus China Industrial
Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong
Ube 4% Mitsubishi
12%
In-House 9%
Tomiyama 3%
PANAX-ETEC 8%
Zhangjiagang Guotai-
Huarong 15%
Mitsui 3%
Jinniu 8%
Capchem 14%
Shanshan 8%
Soulbrain 5%
TINCI 6%
Others 5%
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE
ELECTRONIC DEVICES
2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by
application (3C)
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,
by form factor (3C)
25
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M c
ells
/yea
r
Li-P Li-ion Pr
Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)
(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
CAGR 16-25: + 6%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
20
00
2005
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
MW
h
Other PortableElectronics
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
X-EV MARKET
Why x-EV ?
Definition & segmentation
X-EV worldwide in 2016
By country
By car makers
By battery chemistry
X-EV forecasts
AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts
Battery chemistry forecasts
Battery cost forecasts
X-EV battery forecasts
26
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
2016 2020 2025
MW
h f
or
Au
to &
E-b
use
s
E-buses
PHEV & EV inChina
EV
PHEV
HEV
CAGR 2016-2025:+ 17%
45 GWh
110 GWh
185 GWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
27
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)
> 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)
TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2017
TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Dec 2016
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
PANASONIC
NISSAN Motor US
Sony
BYD
LG Chem
JCI
A123
Sanyo
Ener1
Nissan-Renault (Fr)
Dow Kokam
GS YUASA
SB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle Energy
Lithium Energy Japan
Rusnano-Thunder Sky
LG Chem
Nissan - Renault (UK)
Toshiba
Blue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port)
Lishen
BAK
SAFT US
SAFT
Hitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC Japon
NEC Tokin
Mitsubishi H.I.
SK Energy
Panasonic EV
LiTec GmbH
TESLA (2014-2017)
BYD (2013 - 2015)
ATL (2014 - 2017)
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
(Invest end 2016)
Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh
2014 – 2017 TESLA, ATL, BYD
Investments: 150 $ / kWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION
28
China – 53% USA – 2%
EU -<1%
Japan – 20%
Korea – 17%
Panasonic Sony NEC Maxell PEVE YUASA
SAFT FIAMM
BOLLORE
SAMSUNG LG SK Kokam
BYD GP
Lishen COSLIGHT
ATL BAK B&K
Wanxiang (A123)
LG Johnson-Controls
Enersys SAFT
SAMSUNG LG
Others* – 7%
Source: AVICENNE 2017 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly (1) Government subsidies only
Korean companies start to move in Malaysia
New production capacity in Europe and US
$ 562 M 3-5 GWh 2018
$ 5 Bn 35 GWh 2017
$ 562 M 3-5 GWh 2018
$ 600 M 1 GWh 2019
$ 1 700 M (1) 25 GWh 2025
$ 360 M 2-3 GWh 2018
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago). So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.
29
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
30 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
SAFETY ISSUES
31
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety
concerns In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects
B
ac
kg
rou
nd
M
ob
ile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
electrolyte.
In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction
starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)
In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more
than there profit-to-date
Au
tom
oti
ve
A
irc
raft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to
melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2015-2025 LIB cell average cost (40 Ah pouch)
(EV design ; NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR
EV
32 * For Production > 100 000 packs/year
(1) Active materials only
2020 2025 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
$ /
kW
h
Pack Cost
CellManufacturing
Other Materials
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode
Cathode0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2015 2020 2025
$ /
kW
h
Margin
Warranty
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&DEnergy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Scraps
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode (1)
Cathode (1)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LIB PRICE FORECASTS
33 Source: Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles, Nature Climate Change , March 2015
Avicenne Energy
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
0,08 0,1
0,2
0,3
0,5
0,8
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ion
car
s
HEV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS
34 HEV: 1kWh battery / car
HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured
0,18
0,8
1,2
0,02
0,24
0,45
0,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
2010 2015 2020 2025
kWh
/ E
V
Mill
ion
car
s
EV manufactured
1,1
2,1
3,0
3,9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
2010 2015 2020 2025
% L
i-io
n H
EV
Mill
ion
car
s
0,35
0,65
1,05
PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car
0,45
1,25
2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery
needs (MWh)
CAGR 2016-2025: +17%
Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery
needs (M$)
CAGR 2016-2025: +12%
35
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV
EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010 2015 2020 2025
M $
12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV
EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
X-EV BATTERY MARKET
2000 – 2025 IN M$
36
Pack Level
CAGR 2015-2025: +11%
Cell Level
CAGR 2016-2025: +12%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2010 2015 2020 2025
M $
12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV
EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010 2015 2020 2025
M $
12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV
EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
37
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
From 90 GWh in 2016 to 300 GWh
CAGR 2016/2025
+15 % per year in Volume
2016: 90 GWh
2025: 300 GWh
Electronic devices
40%
Auto, E-bus Excl. China
13%
Auto, E-bus China 30%
Industrial, ESS 6% Others
11%
Electronic devices
18%
Auto, E-bus Excl. China
21%
Auto, E-bus China 43%
Industrial, ESS 7%
Others 11%
16%
22%
22%
17%
6%
CAGR 15/25 (Realistic)
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015
Others
Industrial, ESS
Auto, E-bus China
Auto, e-bus Excl.China
Electronic devices
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS CAGR 2016/2025 +13 % per year in Volume
Cell: +7% per year in value
Pack: +8% per year in value
38 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
200
0
200
5
201
0
201
5
202
0
202
5
M$
Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025
Others
Industrial,ESS
Auto, E-bus China
Auto, e-bus Excl.ChinaElectronicdevices
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
200
0
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
M$
Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
11%
11%
12%
8%
0%
CAGR 15/25
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
TAKEAWAYS
39
Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …
Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications
In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEV
P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 15 B$ market in 2016 - 28 B$ in 2020 & 38 B$ in 2025 with high numbers in China (2016: US$ 3,6 Billion for xEV and US$ 4,8 Billion for xE-Buses)
EV expectations attract large Chemical companies
New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards
HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 2020
P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020
Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25
Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 2020.
A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries
New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years
Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years
ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET
WORLDWIDE 2000-2025
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MW
h
Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+0%)LIB for xEV (+13%) LIB for Others* (+12%)
25B$ 30B$
63 B$
94 B$
> 115 B$
210 GWh
325 GWh
628 GWh
847GWh
17
10
49
(CAGR 2016-2025)
38
(Pack level) 2,8
43B$
432 GWh
Battery Market 2015-2025
CAGR = +6% / Li-ion>+10%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand
2016 - 2025
June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
THANK YOU
Mike SANDERS
AVICENNE ENERGY
E-mail:
Phone:
Mobile:
40
PHOTO