listing on nasdaq stockholm - ambea · listing on nasdaq stockholm 20th march, 2017. agenda ......
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Listing on Nasdaq Stockholm
20th March, 2017
Agenda
Large and increasing care needs
Contributing to the welfare challenge
Quality in focus
Delivering attractive financials
Ambea’s listing on Nasdaq Stockholm
Q&A
Large and increasing care needs
502549
687
826
2015 2020E 2025E 2030E
Increasing need for elderly residential care due to demographic
development
Municipality housing shortage in Sweden2Anticipated number of elderly (> 80 years) in Sweden
3%
CAGR
■ Increasing number of elderly individuals
■ 13% of total population aged > 80 years lived in
nursing homes 20151
■ ~ 40,000 new beds anticipated in 2030
■ Shortage of elderly homes in municipalities
Long-term
shortage3
Short-
term
shortage4
60%
50%40%
35%
30%
15%
30%
2008 2014
4
Source: Statistics Sweden, The National Board of Health and Welfare, National Board of Housing, Building and Planning. 1) According statistics for 2015 from The National Board of Health and Welfare. 2) Data from 190 municipalities. 3) Demand shortage, in the next five
years, even after new builds. 4) Demand shortage right now, no shortage after new builds.
561
1,433
2013 2015
5
Shortage of disabled care homes due to the increasing number
of people in need for life long residential care services
60%
Current age:
18 years
60
80
100
120
140
1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
CAGR
Number of registered, unenforced LSS housing decisions in SwedenNumber of births in Sweden (‘000)
■ Pent up demand of younger people in need of
residential care in Sweden
■ 1.4% of 13–22 year-olds have LSS decision. Right to
demand LSS services according to law. Municipality
fined if not able to provide residential service.
■ 53% of all Swedish municipalities have a housing
shortage within disabled care1
■ Shortage likely to increase as larger group of
18–22 year olds will require LSS housing
Source: The National Board of Health and Welfare, Statistics Sweden, National Board of Housing, Building and Planning, Inspektionen för vård och omsorg (Annual report). 1) As per January 2015 according to the National Board of Building and Planning.
Market share of smaller players in Ambea’s
addressed care market in Sweden
6
Increasing demand for private providers of social care
38%
Care expenditures
Other municipal
costs
~50%
The Swedish municipalities’ budget split 2015 Private penetration in elderly care Fragmented market segments
Source: Statistics Sweden, Sveriges Kommuner och Landsting.
Contributing to the welfare challenge
8
One of the largest care providers in Sweden
~460 units
~6,200 beds
~1,300 school-/daily
activities-placentes
■ Ambea is one of the largest care providers in
Sweden
■ Total Sales SEK 5,409m
■ Adjusted EBITA SEK 456m
■ Employees ~14,000
■ ~ 200 municipality customers
■ Focus on own management residential care
■ Strong corporate culture with focus on quality
Headquarter
Norway
Sagostigen – Group living LSS (6 beds) Silverhöjden – Nursing home (72 beds) Rosenhoffgata – Adult psychiatry home (9 beds)
9
Ambea’s business segments
Other: Norway and Staffing solutions
Key
facts
Staffing: ~300,000 hours worked for doctors and nurses
Share
of sale
s 2
016 RESIDENTIAL CARE OWN MANAGEMENT RESIDENTIAL CARE OWN MANAGEMENT RESIDENTIAL CARE2 OWN MANAGEMENT2
Exam
ple
of unit
1 2
78% 40%
100%83% 98% 95%
Beds1
~2,600
Units1
~340
Beds
~3,500
Units
~75
Beds
~110
Units
~45
Source: Company information, Roland Berger. 1) Nytida excluding outpatient and family homes. 2) Ambea Norway
10
Ambea has a strong market position within attractive care
segments
Attractive sector focus Robust earnings mix Focused care model
84%
16%
Residential care
Other services &
staffing solutions
Staffing
37% 41%
58%
57%51%
35%7%7%
6%
2014 2015 2016
Other:
N&B
Vardaga
Nytida
CM
OM39% 41%
51%
55% 52%
40%7%
7%
8%
2014 2015 2016
Share of sales Share of sales Share of sales
Quality in focus
12
Ambea is a quality focused organisation
Operational excellence and digitalisation
Leader in education of
care competence
Industry-leading quality system
Board to unit manager governance process
3
4
1
2
13
Qualitative living – Welcome to Villa Agadir!
14
Source: Company information
Case study: Östersund
Overview of study and results Illustration of the nursing homes in Östersund
■ The municipality of Östersund conducted a study by constructing two identical
nursing homes side by side, one run by the municipality and one run by Vardaga
■ The study ran for over 3 years with external monitoring by the Nordic healthcare
Group, an independent consultancy firm
■ The objective of the study was to compare private provision of care to municipal
care, across quality, efficiency, employee satisfaction
Vardaga won 8 out of 10 and was equal on 1 of the quality
parameters
Vardaga made an operating profit on its unit, at a price which was
26% below the municipality
Employee satisfaction was similar across the two units
Brukarundersökningen
The only independent and recurring national quality survey where clients and
relatives themselves can answer questions about their nursing home
“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with your nursing home?“1
Enhetsundersökningen
The only independent and recurring national quality survey with objective
questions to unit managers about quality related parameters of operations
Average of selected questions2
15
High quality drives high user satisfaction
84,3%82,3% 81,1%
62,7%
56,4%
45,0%
Competitor#4
Competitor#2
Competitor#3
Competitor#1
Public avg.
82,8%
82,4%82,1%
81,0%
79,8%
79,2%
Competitor#1
Competitor#2
Competitor#3
Competitor#4
Public avg.
Source: Company information, “Brukarundersökningen” and ”Enhetsundersökningen” – Surveys carried out by The National Board of Health and Welfare in 2016. 1) In Swedish: “Hur nöjd eller missnöjd är du sammantaget med ditt äldreboende” 2) Average of selected
questions (17/23), questions selected that directly relate to care quality and that can be assessed on a comparable basis, excluding questions of more descriptive nature and the respondents are managers of the covered units
Delivering attractive financials
17
Attractive financial key metrics
1
Strong sales growth 2014 – 2016 Increasing profitability 2014 – 2016 High cash generation 2014 – 2016
4,1954,403
5,409
2014 2015 2016
192
301
456
4.6%
6.8%
8.4%
2014 2015 2016
Adj. EBITA
Adj. EBITA margin
92.9% 92.1% 92.2%
2014 2015 2016
CAGR
13.6%
Source: Company information. 1) Adjustments related to result from share in subsidiaries in connection with restructuring, Solhaga acquisition related costs and PO costs.
18
Strong current trading reaching an adj. EBITA margin
of 8.4% in 2016
Rolling LTM adj. EBITA and margin development
192
227 235
269
301314
349
421
456
4.6%
5.3% 5.4%
6.1%
6.8% 6.9%7.3%
8.3% 8.4%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016
LTM Adj. EBITA LTM adj. EBITA margin
19
Medium-term Financial Targets
An annual growth rate of 8–10 percent through a combination of
organic growth and acquisitions.
Sales growth
8–10%
An adj. EBITA margin of 9.5 percent in the medium term.
Adj. EBITA margin
9.5%
The net debt in relation to adj. EBITDA is not to exceed 3.25.
However, the net debt to adj. EBITDA ratio may temporarily
exceed 3.25, for example in connection with acquisitions.
Capital structure
<3.25x
30 percent of net profits is to be paid as dividend. The proposed
dividend shall take Ambea’s long-term development potential and
financial position into account.
Dividend
30%
20
Source: Company information. 1) 2016-12-31. Estimated pipeline include under construction and contract signed
Ambea has a clear and proven strategy for growth
Bolt-on acquisitions
ACQUIRED COMPANIES SINCE 2013CURRENT GREENFIELD PIPELINE1
Nordic expansion
NORWAY AS MODEL FOR FURTHER
GROWTH
14578
# of beds
Contract management
WON TENDER REVENUE SINCE 2014
646
SEK million
■ Strategy to scale up growth and further develop relationships with preferred partners in certain regions
■ Strong pipeline of new greenfield care units in coming years
■ Strong contract management win track record, #1 or #2 in the last three years
■ Strong track-record of accretive acquisitions, 14 since 2013
■ Typical acquisition multiple of 4-7x EV/EBITA post-synergies
■ Expansion to Norway
Greenfield development
Ambea’s listing on Nasdaq Stockholm
22
Ownership post the IPO
Employees and BoD4,8% Fidelity International
3,9%
Öresund3,9%
Carve Capital3,0%
Didner & Gerge3,0%
Catella Fondförvaltning3,0%
RAM One2,0%
Other shareholders26,3%
Main shareholder50,2%
■ Wide and strong ownership structure with six long term cornerstone investors – Fidelity International on behalf of various funds, Investment AB Öresund,
Carve Capital AB, Catella Fondförvaltning AB through funds, Didner & Gerge Fonder AB and RAM One AB
■ Selling shareholders are KKR and Triton
Ownership after the IPO
23
Important dates
■ Publication of prospectus: 20 March 2017
■ Application period for the general public in Sweden: 21 – 29 March 2017
■ Application period for Ambea employees 21 – 29 March 2017
■ Application period for institutional investors: 21 – 30 March 2017
■ First day of trading on Nasdaq Stockholm: 31 March 2017
■ Settlement day 4 April 2017
Preliminary timetable
Q&A
25
Important information This announcement is not and does not form a part of any offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, any securities of the Company.
Copies of this announcement are not being made and may not be distributed or sent into the United States, Australia, Canada, Japan or any other jurisdiction in which such
distribution would be unlawful or would require registration or other measures.
The securities referred to in this announcement have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and accordingly
may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act and in accordance with applicable U.S.
state securities laws. The Company does not intend to register any part of the offering in the United States or to conduct a public offering of securities in the United States.
This announcement is an advertisement and is not a prospectus for the purposes of the Directive 2003/71/EC (together with any applicable implementing measures in any Member
State, the “Prospectus Directive”). A prospectus prepared pursuant to the Prospectus Directive will be published, which, when published, can be obtained from the Company.
Investors should not subscribe for any securities referred to in this announcement except on the basis of information contained in the prospectus.
In any EEA Member State other than Sweden that has implemented the Prospectus Directive, this communication is only addressed to and is only directed at qualified investors in
that Member State within the meaning of the Prospectus Directive, i.e., only to investors who can participate in the Offering without an approved prospectus in such EEA Member
State.
This announcement is only being distributed to and is only directed at (i) persons who are outside the United Kingdom or (ii) to investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of
the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”) or (iii) high net worth companies, and other persons to whom it may lawfully be
communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons in (i), (ii) and (iii) above together being referred to as “relevant persons”). The shares are only
available to, and any invitation, offer or agreement to subscribe, purchase or otherwise acquire such securities will be engaged in only with, relevant persons. Any person who is not a
relevant person should not act or rely on this announcement or any of its contents.
Matters discussed in this announcement may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and may be identified by
words such as “believes”, “estimates”, “anticipates”, “expects”, “assumes”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “could”, “will”, “should”, “would”, “according to estimates”, “is of the opinion”, “may”,
“plans”, “continue”, “potential”, “predicts”, “projects”, “to the knowledge of” and similar expressions. This applies in part icular to statements referring to future results, financial position,
cash flow, plans and expectations for the Company’s business and management, future growth and profitability and general economic and regulatory environment and other
circumstances which affect the Company. Forward-looking statements are based upon various estimates and assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further
assumptions, such as no changes in existing political, legal, fiscal, market or economic conditions or in applicable legislation, regulations or rules (including, but not limited to,
accounting policies, accounting treatments and tax policies), which, individually or in the aggregate, would be material to the results of operations of the Company or its ability to
operate its businesses. Although the Company believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and
unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors, which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. Such risks, uncertainties, contingencies
and other important factors could cause actual events to differ materially from the expectations expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
Potential investors should not place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements herein and are strongly advised to read the detailed description of factors that have an effect
on the Company’s business and the market in which the Company operates, which will be included in the prospectus.
The information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this announcement speak only as at its date, and are subject to change without notice.