lisa rees department of agricultural economics university of missouri-columbia december 5, 2008
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What is the Impact of Livelihood Strategies on Farmers’ Climate Risk Perceptions in the Bolivian Highlands?. Lisa Rees Department of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia December 5, 2008. Introduction. Risk Management Strategies Climate Risk Perceptions - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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What is the Impact of Livelihood Strategies on Farmers’ Climate Risk Perceptions in the
Bolivian Highlands?
Lisa ReesDepartment of Agricultural EconomicsUniversity of Missouri-ColumbiaDecember 5, 2008
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Introduction• Risk Management Strategies Climate Risk Perceptions
• Ordinal Logistic Regression▫ Dread▫ Diversification▫ Access to Credit▫ Climate Knowledge
• Focus Groups conducted▫ Weather/Climate Change▫ Weather Event Severity▫ Ex-Ante Risk Management Strategies▫ Ex-Post Risk Management Strategies
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Objectives
• Main objective- Understand how farmers’ climate risk perceptions are impacted by livelihood strategies▫ Perceptions are linked to their assets (financial
capital and social capital) within their livelihood
• Specific objective 1- Identify and describe farmers’ climate risk perceptions of climate hazards▫ Identify differences by region
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Literature• Livelihood and Risk Management Strategy
▫ Livelihoods are created by livelihood resources natural capital, financial capital, human capital and social capital
▫ Ex-Ante Risk Management Strategies (Morduch, 1995) Diversification Off-Farm Income
▫ Ex-Post Risk Management Strategies (Morduch, 1995 Credit Insurance
• Risk Perception▫ Psychometric model is risk perception being a function of the
properties of the hazard (Sjoberg, 2000)▫ Slovic (1987) identified dread and unknown
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Conceptual Framework
Household
RiskManagement
Actual Risk Level Risk Perception
Unknown
Dread
Risk Attitude
LivelihoodStrategies
Unknown
Dread
Initial Risk Perception
TIME
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Hypotheses• H1: diversified portfolio lower climate risk
perceptions
• H2: access to credit lower climate risk perceptions
• H3: access to climate information lower climate risk perceptions
• H4: lower dread feelings lower climate risk perceptions
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Overview of Ancoraimes & Umala
Altiplano
A. B.
C. Ancoraimes D. Umala
LakeTiticaca Ancoraimes
Umala
Chinchaya
Kellhuiri
San José de Llanga
San Juan Cerca
Vinto Coopani
Chojňapata
CohaniKarcapata
Calahuancani
Lake Titicaca
La Paz
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Objective vs. Subjective Risk
•Garcia, Raes, Jacobsen and Michel (1997)
SubjectiveObjective Subjective ObjectiveNorth 3.88 30% 3.81 40%Central 4.29 18% 4.72 58%Combined 4.085 24% 4.265 49%
Flood Drought
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Focus Group FindingsWeather/Climate ChangeHazard Severity
•Experience Weather/Climate Change▫Umala- drier conditions, more wind, lower
temperatures and fewer frosts▫Ancoraimes- drier conditions
•Weather Event Severity▫hail, frost, drought
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Focus Group FindingsEx-Ante Risk Management Strategies
•Frost and Hail- rituals•Planting in three different areas
▫Umala Frost- chemicals, varieties Drought- planting multiple times Flooding- higher elevation, vertical furrows
▫Ancoraimes Relatives Drought- certain areas, higher elevation,
plow deep, store more products
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Focus Group FindingsEx-Post Risk Management Strategies•Rituals•Can’t Cope
▫Umala Institutions, government Children- jobs Migrate Works for neighbors
Drought- chuno▫Ancoraimes
Don’t ask government Migrate
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Model•Other Income + Total Cattle + Total
Sheep + Location + Dread + Access to Credit + Shock Experience + Contact Family Outside + Spanish Speaking Climate Risk Perceptions
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Ordinal Logistic Regression FindingsB S.E. Sig
Dependent Variable Moderate Climate Risk Perception- 1 -2.667 1.197 0.026
Low High-2 -0.117 1.140 0.918
Mid-High-3 1.463 1.136 0.198
High-4 3.008 1.164 0.010
Extreme-5 -
B Odds Ratio S.E. Sig
Parameter Estimates
Other Income (Bolivianos) -0.005 0.995 0.002 0.013 **
Sheep 0.005 1.005 0.009 0.581
Cattle 0.018 1.018 0.077 0.819
Chinchaya -2.034 0.131 1.047 0.052 *
Karcapata -0.580 0.560 1.300 0.656
Chojñapata -2.173 0.114 1.271 0.087 *
San Jose Llanga 1.728 5.632 1.109 0.119
San Juan Circa 2.427 11.326 1.368 0.076 *
Vinto Coopani 1.485 4.415 1.132 0.190
Kellhuiri 2.259 9.569 1.271 0.075 *
Calahuancani 0.977 2.657 1.254 0.436
Cohani - - - -
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Ordinal Logistic Regression FindingsLow Dread- 6 -1.220 0.295 1.439 0.396
Dread-7 -1.626 0.197 1.968 0.409
Dread- 8 -2.670 0.069 0.620 0.000 ***
Dread- 9 -0.722 0.486 0.448 0.107
Dread-10 - - - -
Access to Credit -0.870 0.419 0.435 0.046 ** No access - - - -
High Experience Shocks- 5 -0.680 0.507 2.213 0.759
Shocks-6 1.140 3.128 0.754 0.131
Shocks-7 1.099 3.001 0.433 0.011 **
No experience shocks-8 - - - -
Contact family outside -5.405 0.004 2.151 0.012 **
No contact family outside - - - -
Spanish speaking 0.594 1.811 0.641 0.354
Not able to speak Spanish - - - -
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Conclusion• Significant Explanatory Variables
▫ Diversification- income ▫ Access to credit▫ Trusted Knowledge
• Non-Significant Explanatory Variables▫ Dread▫ Livestock
• Further Research▫ Gender▫ Individual hazards▫ Rituals
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References•Morduch, J. (1995). "Income Smoothing
and Consumption Smoothing." The Journal of
•Economic Perspectives 9(3): 103-114.
•Slovic, P. (1987). “Perception of Risk.” Science 236: 280-285.
•Sjoberg, L. (2000). "Factors in Risk Perception." Risk Analysis 20(1): 1-12.