linda deangelo cirp assistant director for research

Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA

Higher Education Research InstituteUniversity of California at Los Angeles

Enhancing Campus Retention Studies: Predicting 4- and 6-Year

Degree Attainment with Institutional and Freshman Survey Data

Linda DeAngeloCIRP Assistant Director for Research


Return to contents

Overview of Presentation Review findings from recent study on

retention rates at the national level Discuss how institutional data and data from a

freshman survey such as CIRP’s Freshman Survey can be used to predict retention at the institutional level

Demonstrate how an institution can use the formulas created at HERI to compute expected retention in order to gauge the effectiveness of their retention programs



Return to contents

The National Study of Retention

Data: 1994 CIRP Freshman Survey and degree completion data provided on 4- and 6-year completers provided by registrars offices

262 baccalaureate-granting institutions 56,818 students – full-time, first-time

freshman in 1994 Weighted data to represent national norms



Return to contents

Purpose of Study Determine degree completion rates by

gender, race/ethnicity, and institutional type Identify entering student characteristics that

predict degree completion Develop formulas that individual institutions

can use to compute “expected” retention rates

Examine results for 4- and 6-year completers and for those still enrolled after 6 years



Return to contents

Major Finding from Study Nationally, time to degree has increased

Results: 36% graduated within four years in this study. In 1989 a decade earlier, 40% graduated within four years, and in the late 60s, 47% graduated within four years

Six-year graduation rate in this study is 59% and this increases to 62% if you count those still enrolled after 6 years as retained



Return to contents

Effects of Institutional Type on Retention

Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Type4 Years 6 Years 6+ Years

Public Universities 28% 58% 62%Private Universities 67% 80% 80%Public 4-Year Colleges 24% 47% 52%Nonsec 4-Year Colleges 58% 67% 68%Catholic 4-Year Colleges 46% 60% 62%


Data suggests that attending public institutions not only lowers the chances that a student will complete a degree, but prolongs time to degree


Return to contents

Effects of Gender On RetentionFour, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Gender

Men Women Total4 Years 33% 40% 36%6 Years 55% 60% 58%6+ Years 59% 62% 61%


Greatest gender gap occurs at 4 years (7%); reduces to 3% when you take into account students still enrolled after 6 years


Return to contents

Effects of Race/Ethnicity on RetentionFour, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Race/Ethnicity

4 Years 6 Years 6+ YearsWhite 38% 58% 62%African American 23% 46% 49%American Indian 21% 42% 46%Asian American 39% 65% 69%Mexican American 21% 46% 53%


Data suggests that the same factors that contribute to low college attendance rates and low retention rates among URM students may also be prolonging time to degree


Return to contents

Effects of Race/Ethnicity and Institutional Type on Retention

6-Year Degree Attainment by Race/Ethnicity and TypePublicUniversity

Public4-Year

Private University

Nonsec4-Year

Catholic 4-Year

White 59% 49% 80% 68% 64%African American 45% 41% 73% 50% 48%

American Indian 44% 37% 72% 56% 32%

Asian American 65% 51% 87% 76% 58%

Mexican American 40% 38% 68% 62% 30%



Return to contents

How “Good” Is Your Retention Rate?

Did you know? – Two-thirds of the variation among institutions in their

degree completion rates is attributable to differences in their entering classes

rather than to differences in the effectiveness of their undergraduate

retention programs



Return to contents

How “Good” Is Your Retention Rate?

Our data suggests that it is unwise, and possibly misleading, to compare the

raw degree completion rates of different institutions without first taking

into account the level of academic preparation of each institution’s students when they first enroll



Return to contents

Changes in Retention When Student Characteristics at Entry are Used

Example – Although the 4-year degree attainment rates at private universities are more than 40% higher than those at

public colleges, this difference diminishes to approximately 15% when expected degree attainment rates are

taken into account



Return to contents

Retention by High School GradesFour, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by HS GradesHS Grades 4 Years 6 Years 6+ YearsA, A+ 58% 78% 79%A- 47% 68% 70%B+ 35% 59% 62%B 25% 48% 52%B- 19% 39% 44%C+ 15% 33% 37%


Data clearly indicated that HS grades are a major determinant of college completion at 4, 6, and 6+ years


Return to contents

Retention by SAT Comp ScoreFour, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by SAT ScoreSAT Score 4 Years 6 Years 6+ Years1300+ 62% 77% 78%1200-1299 55% 73% 75%1100-1199 48% 68% 70%1000-1099 40% 63% 66%900-999 30% 52% 56%


Data indicates that the college completion gap between test scores narrows as time to degree increases


Return to contents

Retention by HS GPA and SAT CompFour-Year Degree Attainment by HS GPA and SAT Comp

SAT Comp ScoresHS Grades

900 - 999

1000 - 1099

1100 - 1199

1200 - 1299

1300+

A, A+ 42% 54% 60% 63% 69%A- 41% 46% 52% 61% 61%B+ 33% 39% 42% 48% 51%B 23% 33% 34% 28% 36%B- 18% 25% 29% 32% 15%C+ 15% 16% 20% 12% cell too small



Return to contents

Predicting Expected Retention:Institutional or CIRP Variables

Variables Used: Average HS GPA, SAT COMP, Gender, Race/Ethnicity

All are variables that the large majority of institutions already have available for analysis

These variables are also available on The Freshman Survey from CIRP at HERI



Return to contents

Multiple R by Various Retention Prediction Equations:

Institutional or CIRP VariablesHS GPA HS GPA

SAT COMPHS GPA

SAT COMPGender

HS GPA SAT COMP

GenderRace/Ethnicity

.3084 .3486 .3559 .3601


Factors beyond High School GPA add slightly more than 5% to the variance accounted for in predicting retention


Return to contents

Demonstration of HERI Retention Calculator:

Institutional or CIRP Variables



Return to contents

Predicting Expected Retention: If You Use CIRP Freshman Survey Substantially improves prediction of

degree completion over what was possible using only high school grades, test scores, gender, and race/ethnicity

Prediction now includes measures of SES, info about financial aid, activities as HS seniors, reasons for attending college, goals, likely college activities, major, and environmental factors



Return to contents

Multiple R by Various Retention Prediction Equations:

For Users of CIRP Freshman SurveyAll Inputs With SAT Scores

All Inputs Environments

With SAT

All Inputs Without SAT

Scores

All Inputs Environments Without SAT

.473 .515 .460 .506


With all input factors, SAT Comp adds very little to the variance accounted for in predicting retention

Most of the variance is accounted for by the effects of entering students rather than differential institutional effects


Return to contents

Demonstration of HERI Retention Calculator:

With All CIRP Available Variables



Return to contents

Conclusions Even students who come to college well

prepared academically are less likely to persist to degree today than in the past

Calls for accountability that require the reporting of “raw” rates of retention actually harm, rather than enhance, the incentive for institutions to admit and educate underprepared students



Return to contents

Conclusions, Continued Institutions can be more accountable for their

effectiveness when they take into account the characteristics of the students they enroll

Institutions who participate in the CIRP Freshman Survey can predict more precise measures of expected retention

Having more precise measures of expected retention enhances institutional, system, and state level policy and practice



Return to contents

Question and Discussion Period For more information visit HERI at

www.gseis.ucla.edu/heri The report “Degree Attainment Rates at

American Colleges and Universities” is available for purchase or order at the conference

My email is: [email protected]


http://www.gseis.ucla.edu/heri

mailto:[email protected]

linda deangelo cirp assistant director for research

Documents