libraries in the teeth of change
TRANSCRIPT
Libraries Libraries in the in the
Teeth of Teeth of ChangeChange
NYLA-
October 2015
Four parts
1. Education contexts
2. Technology
3. Education meets technology
4. Stories
3
Not a librarian, but a shameless fanboy
4
ETH Zurich: “new ways to write [to] and read DNA”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/physics/reed-solomon-codes/
How to get at the future while How to get at the future while avoiding Black Swans?avoiding Black Swans?
Monthly environmental scan report
Trends identified, tested, projected
Part 1: present future Part 1: present future trendstrends
Education contexts: trendsEducation contexts: trendsEducation systemsReform movements (K-12,
higher ed) continueRising student debt ($1.3
trillion)Alternative certification pilots
(competency, badges)
Global higher educationGlobal higher education
More international students heading to the US
International higher ed systems building up
US campuses expanding overseas presence
Contextual trendsContextual trends
Demographics:Youth population
shrinkage, esp. NE + midwest
Ballooning senior population…
Racial Racial transformationtransformation
Education contextsEducation contextsEconomics: US labor changes
› manufacturing->service› 1 job/career->many gigs› declining participation› Automation rising
Top and bottom vs middleTop and bottom vs middle
Enrollment changesEnrollment changes Spending less Swirling
Student Student population population changeschanges Majority adult Increasing
first-generation students
Veterans Learning
disabilities18https://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/67089140
25/
Enrollment decline?Enrollment decline?
Spending less per family
Education trendsEducation trendsAdjunctification rising
Bad forecastingBad forecasting
Inter-institutional collaboration (except SUNY)
Senior admin compensation
Intergenerational strife
Athletics are doing just Athletics are doing just finefine
Technology trendsTechnology trends
Rise of the stacks
Post-Snowden
Hardware + networks: multiple ecosystems
Digitization
Technology trendsTechnology trends
digital video
cloud migration continues
automation and artificial intelligence
AR approach
New device ecosystemNew device ecosystem
Android battles iOS Wearable computing Very small cameras and
computers Internet of Things
Technology ecosystemTechnology ecosystem
Design for mobile *first *
PCs getting crowded out
Mouse and keyboard declining
3d printing mainstreaming
3d tv dying
Technology trendsTechnology trendssocial media triumphing
3d printing3d printing
https://www.flickr.com/photos/collegeofsanmateolibrary/15373589050/
Away from physical mediaAway from physical media
Technology trendsTechnology trends crowdfunding growing copyright battles
continue open struggle ongoing durability of Moore’s Law office versus Web office
Did ebooks plateau?Did ebooks plateau?
Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/
Reading and/versus digitalReading and/versus digital
How much reading is being done?
How is digital reading different?
Literacies changing?
Weaker tech trendlinesWeaker tech trendlines
the limits of the Web
onshoring hardware production
3. Teaching and learning and 3. Teaching and learning and techtech
Teaching and learning and Teaching and learning and techtech
blended/flipped classroom rise of the net.generation distance learning grows gaming in education
Teaching and learning and Teaching and learning and techtech
educational entrepreneurship
big data and data analytics develop
campus digital security threats growing
Uses of social media
Uses of Web video
Changes in the LMS world
Blended learning
Learning analytics
Changes in library role
Digital humanities (in classroom)
The rise of the Maker movement
Credit for MOOCs STEM vs humanities Sustainability? xMOOC vs cMOOC Liberal arts campuses
entering
Changes in scholarship Changes in scholarship
Open content Possible divide growing
between research and teaching
Changes to the scholarly publication ecosystem
Rise of the digital humanities (as scholarly work)
The library role
Extrapolations: Transnational
campuses Average
student age: 40
Hourly faculty
Privatizing public universities
Hogwarts vs CCs
What comes next?What comes next?
What comes next?What comes next? Rich
multimedia environment
Some gamification
Student as producer
Disintegrated computing as a service
Extensive data analysis, surveillance, creativity
Which of these trends are the most powerful?
Which of these trends are the
most unpredicatble?
How does your life change?How does your life change?
1. Peak Higher Education
2. Health Care Nation3. Tutor me, Siri4. Renaissance
Peak higher educationPeak higher education
Academia experiences a serious correction
The bubble burstThe bubble burst
http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/
Grad programs checkedGrad programs checked
Perfect stormPerfect storm Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk
costs Low public funding Alternatives rising
How does this impact How does this impact campuses?campuses?
Fewer, less crowded campuses
Very international student body
Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
How does this impact How does this impact campuses?campuses?
Increased remedial programs
College generally seen as job training
How does this impact How does this impact learning?learning?
More alternatives:Maker movement expandsMore DIY learning,
unschooling
Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12
Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths
Colleges have always been transnational
II: II: Health care Health care nationnation
Medical sector grows into leading US industry
45% of GDP
A new economyA new economy
Ageing population
A new economyA new economy Byzantine finances Treatment improvements Greater presence in society Baumol’s disease
How does this impact How does this impact campuses?campuses?
More programs, more people, more tech
Increased feminization of student body
Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals
Some took premed-themed classes in high school
Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures
Many already familiar with eldercare practices
III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri Tutoring
software Commodi
ty and enterprise versions
How it happenedHow it happened
Continuous developments in AI, HCI, learning science
Commercial, governmental, academic projects
Open education to draw upon
Higher education landscape:Two Cultures
implementation divideBoom in CS, robotics
departmentsScholarship battles
Higher education landscape:
Further adjunctificationF2f undergrad, grad
enrollments drop Math Emporium model
Expanded study halls in high school
Beloved tutors carried to college, life
Value humans for eccentricity, style
IV. RenaissanceIV. Renaissance
Gaming world
Gaming as part of mainstream Gaming as part of mainstream cultureculture
Median age of gamers shoots past 30
Industry size comparable to music
Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces, other industries
Large and growing diversity of platforms, topics, genres, niches, players
Games serious, public, and political
• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries• Jetset, Persuasive Games• The Great Shakeout, California• DimensionM, Tabula Digita
Classroom and coursesCurriculum contentDelivery mechanismCreating games
Peacemaker, Impact GamesRevolution (via Jason Mittell)
•Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008)•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009)
Game studies as academic Game studies as academic fieldfield
How is gaming used now?How is gaming used now?
Use games to impact society
Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses
Changes in hardware, software
Part of undergraduate life Learning content, both
informal and formal Career paths
Interface changesInterface changes
Gartner: end of the mouse
Touch screen (iOS) Handhelds (Wii) Nothing (Kinect)
Higher education landscape: Accreditation: drives project-
based, studio-style pedagogy Libraries: rare and/or smaller Professional development:
distance, DiY Faculty multimedia production is
the norm› Both sides of the API
War on IP rages Nostalgia waves for
old media Competing
storytelling schools
Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12
Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors
Most of their work and school is gamified
How does your life change?How does your life change?
1. Peak Higher Education
2. Health Care Nation3. Tutor me, Siri4. Renaissance
http://bryanalexander.org
http://twitter.com/http://twitter.com/bryanalexander bryanalexander