left behind: transportation problems of the elderly living in disappearing rural communities scott...
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The Unconfronted Facts: Drivers age 75 and above have grown 10.4% between 1992 and 2001 from 140,793 to 155,446. In 2000 approximately 7000 persons.,nationally, age 65 and older lost their lives in traffic crashes. In Iowa, for the same year, 89 people over age 65 were killed in traffic crashes (20% of total fatalities). Almost 3000 persons (8% of total injuries) over the age of 65 were injured in traffic crashes. The elderly make up a bigger proportion of the fatalities than the injuries!TRANSCRIPT
Left Behind:Transportation Problems of the Elderly
Living in Disappearing Rural Communities
Scott R. FalbIowa Department of Transportation
Session 1230th International Traffic Records Forum
Nashville, TennesseeJuly 26, 2004
The Undeniable Facts:
• We are growing older.• The life span of older Iowans is growing longer.• Older Iowans, on average, are staying healthy longer.• Older Drivers are growing more numerous.• While today’s older Iowans are healthier than people of
the same age in 1950’s and 1960’s, health and driving capabilities do deteriorate.
• One ramification of the longer life span is an elongation of the period of decline.
The Unconfronted Facts:
• Drivers age 75 and above have grown 10.4% between 1992 and 2001 from 140,793 to 155,446.
• In 2000 approximately 7000 persons.,nationally, age 65 and older lost their lives in traffic crashes.
• In Iowa, for the same year, 89 people over age 65 were killed in traffic crashes (20% of total fatalities) .
• Almost 3000 persons (8% of total injuries) over the age of 65 were injured in traffic crashes.
• The elderly make up a bigger proportion of the fatalities than the injuries!
Census Data for IowansOver Age 65
Census Iowans Percent Year Over 65 Change1970 350,293 1980 387,584 9.62%1990 426,106 9.04%2000 436,213 2.32%
Woods & Poole Population Projection2002 State Profile, Iowa
Projection Iowans Percent Year Over 65 Change
2005 429,800 -1.49%2015 482,190 10.87%2025 620,840 22.33%
Census Data with the Woods & Poole Projections
Older Iowans Age 65 +
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2015 2025
Census Population Projected Population
Iow
ans
Older Drivers in Iowa
149,960 156,610
198,757 192,642
63,129
101,155109,473
153,488
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1973 1982 1990 2000
Years
Driv
ers
65-74 Year Old Drivers 75 Year Old and Older Drivers
Comparison of Older Iowan & Older Iowa Driver Projections at 80% Peak
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2015 2025
Older Iowans Age 65 +Older Drivers Age 65 +
Older Iowan Projections 87%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2015 2025
Years
Older Iowans Age 65 +Older Drivers Age 65 +
Percentage of Drivers by Age1973-2000
Driver 1973* 1975 1982** 1985 1990 1995 2000Ages Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent14-24 24.4% 23.2% 23.6% 21.3% 17.6% 18.1% 18.2%25-34 19.9% 21.3% 23.0% 22.4% 21.1% 17.1% 15.9%35-44 15.2% 14.9% 15.7% 17.2% 20.1% 20.3% 19.6%45-54 15.5% 14.9% 12.5% 12.5% 13.5% 16.7% 18.1%55-64 13.1% 13.1% 12.2% 12.3% 11.7% 11.2% 11.7%65-74 8.4% 8.7% 7.9% 9.5% 10.3% 9.6% 9.2%75+ 3.5% 3.9% 5.1% 4.8% 5.7% 7.0% 7.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Data in yellow box represent the age group with the largest percent of licensed drivers.
Other Iowa Demographics
• The number of young people has been dropping since the 1970 census.
• The number of young middle age adults has been decreasing since the 1970 census.
• The number of young old Iowans has been increasing since the 1970 census.
• The number of old-old Iowans is increasing since the 1970 census.
Rural Iowa Demographic Dynamics
• Rural Counties are losing population and have been for awhile.– 10% of Iowa Counties saw their highest population before 1900.– 43% of Iowa Counties saw their highest population between 1900 and
1929.– 23% of Iowa Counties saw their highest population between 1930 and
1969.– 14 Urban or Suburban Counties are still growing and have hit their
highest population to date in the 2000 census.• Across the state, young people are leaving as the older
population grows.• In rural areas, especially, young adult family members, who
traditionally provided the life blood for rural communities and the support system for the elderly are leaving for larger communities both within and outside the state.
Lyon
Sioux
Plymouth
Osceola
O'Brien
Cherokee Buena Vista
Clay
Dickinson Emmet
Palo Alto
Pocahontas Humboldt
Kossuth Winnebago
Hancock
Wright
Worth
Cerro Gordo
Franklin Butler
Floyd
Mitchell Howard
Chickasaw
Bremer
Fayette
Winneshiek Allamakee
Clayton
DelawareBuchananBlack Hawk
GrundyHardinHamilton
WebsterCalhounSacIdaWoodbury
Monona Crawford Carroll Greene Boone Story MarshallTama Benton Linn
J ohnsonIowaPoweshiekJ asperPolkDallasGuthrieAudubonShelbyHarrison
Dubuque
Jackson
Clinton
Scott
Muscatine
Louisa
Washington
J efferson
Van BurenDavis
Wapello
MahaskaMarion
Monroe
AppanooseWayne
Lucas
Warren
Clarke
DecaturRinggold
Union
MadisonAdair
Adams
TaylorPage
Montgomery
CassPottawattamie
Mills
Fremont
Keokuk
Des Moines
Lee
Henry
Cedar
J ones
34.4
36.0
38.6
36.4
35.1
37.9
40.1
43.2
41.9
41.8
41.9
41.640.2
40.4
41.6
42.440.538.9
36.5
38.1
41.2
38.1
32.8
37.8
34.2
43.0 38.2
41.5
41.7
40.7
39.7 43.3
39.4
36.4
42.1
38.7 41.0
42.4
42.5
40.7
39.6
41.3
37.7
38.6 26.5
39.1
41.4
39.7
39.8 40.7
39.3
41.3
40.6
40.6
40.3
41.3
40.8
38.639.1
34.4
38.1
39.7
39.535.7
39.4
36.4
37.2 35.2
37.1
40.2
39.7
36.5
38.539.1
38.2
39.2
35.4
36.1
35.9
38.9
39.5
37.1
28.4
38.8
38.8
40.0
41.1
40.838.5
39.2
37.2
38.438.5
37.2
39.7
40.643.0
39.9
41.3
07/23/04
M e d ian Ag e o f R e s id e nts o f I o w a C o u n ties2 0 0 0
20-29.930-34.9
35-37.9
38-40.941-42.943+
L yo n
S io ux
P lym outh
O sc e ola
O 'B rien
C hero ke e B uena V is ta
C lay
D ickinso n E m m et
Pa lo A lto
Po c a ho ntas H um bold t
Koss uth Winneb ago
H a nc oc k
Wright
Worth
C erro G o rdo
Franklin B utler
Floyd
Mitche ll H o ward
C hickasaw
B rem er
Faye tte
Winnes hiek A llam akee
C layton
D elaw areB uchananB lack H aw k
G rund yH a rdinH a milton
W ebsterC alho unS acIdaWoodbury
Monona C raw fo rd C arro ll G reene B o one Story Marsha llTam a B ento n L inn
J ohnsonPo we shiekJ as perPo lkD allasG uthrieA udub onS helbyH a rriso n
D ubuque
J ac kso n
C linton
S c ott
Mus c atine
L ouisa
W ashington
J efferso n
Van B urenD avis
Wapello
MahaskaMario n
Monroe
A ppa no oseWayne
L uc as
Warre n
C larke
D ec aturR inggold
U nion
Madis onA da ir
A dams
Taylo rPage
Montgo m ery
C assPo ttaw attam ie
Mills
Frem ont
Ke okuk
D es Mo ines
L ee
H e nry
C eda r
J ones
2000
2000
1900
1900
2000
1900
1900
1900
1900
1900
1900
19001930
1900
1900
190019001900
2000
1900
1900
1920
2000
2000
1960
1940 1900
1900
1940
1940
1940 2000
1980
1960
1930
1960 1900
1900
1940
1940
1960
1940
1970
1920 2000
1930
1920
1940
1940 1920
1960
1930
1920
1900
1950
1940
1920
19801900
1980
1980
1900
19001880
1900
1980
2000 2000
1900
1880
1880
1980
19001880
1980
1870
1980
2000
1900
1970
1960
1870
2000
1900
1900
1900
1870
18701880
1950
1900
19202000
2000
1910
19201900
1900
1940
07 /23/04
C e n s u s Y e a r o f H i g h e s t P o p u l a t i o n
Before 1990 1951 - 19801901 - 1920 1981 - 19901921 - 1950 1991 - 2000
Lyon
Sioux
Plymouth
Osceola
O'Brien
Cherokee Buena Vista
Clay
Dickinson Emmet
Palo Alto
Pocahontas Humboldt
Kossuth Winnebago
Hancock
Wright
Worth
Cerro Gordo
Franklin Butler
Floyd
Mitchell Howard
Chickasaw
Bremer
Fayette
Winneshiek Allamakee
Clayton
DelawareBuchananBlack Hawk
GrundyHardinHamilton
WebsterCalhounSacIdaWoodbury
Monona Crawford Carroll Greene Boone Story MarshallTama Benton Linn
J ohnsonIowaPoweshiekJ asperPolkDallasGuthrieAudubonShelbyHarrison
Dubuque
Jackson
Clinton
Scott
Muscatine
Louisa
Washington
J efferson
Van BurenDavis
Wapello
MahaskaMarion
Monroe
AppanooseWayne
Lucas
Warren
Clarke
DecaturRinggold
Union
MadisonAdair
Adams
TaylorPage
Montgomery
CassPottawattamie
Mills
Fremont
Keokuk
Des Moines
Lee
Henry
Cedar
J ones
405.6%
225.0%
n/a
n/a
240.0%
133.3%
66.7%
n/a
28.6%
n/a
n/a
25.0%125.0%
100.0%
120.0%
66.7%57.1%0.0%
55.0%
-16.7%
28.6%
100.0%
58.3%
40.0%
155.0%
0.0% 50.0%
75.0%
25.0%
33.3%
20.0% 160.0%
50.0%
70.0%
22.2%
70.0% 0.0%
-10.0%
33.3%
33.3%
166.7%
60.0%
177.8%
200.0% 137.5%
66.7%
37.5%
57.1%
125.0% 50.0%
220.0%
175.0%
100.0%
0.0%
33.3%
-10.0%
28.6%
133.3%44.4%
156.0%
100.0%
42.9%
0.0%33.3%
50.0%
200.0%
25.0% 196.6%
-14.3%
44.4%
16.7%
145.5%
120.0%71.4%
200.0%
0.0%
190.9%
250.0%
75.0%
122.2%
125.0%
160.0%
277.8%
44.4%
40.0%
-10.0%
200.0%
33.3%n/a
100.0%
60.0%
57.1%90.9%
116.7%
0.0%
250.0%133.3%
33.3%
-33.3%
07/23/04
S av ing s In stitu tio ns i n Io w aP e r c e n t C h a n g e 1 9 8 2 - 1 9 9 7
Decrea se in the number of banks 0.0%-99 .9% increase in banks 100% - 189.9% increase in banks 190.0% or more increase in banks
Lyon
Sioux
Plymouth
Osceola
O'Brien
Cherokee Buena Vista
Clay
Dickinson Emmet
Palo Alto
Poc ahontas Humboldt
Kossuth Winnebago
Hancock
Wright
Worth
Cerro Gordo
Franklin Butler
Floyd
Mitchell Howard
Chickasaw
Bremer
Fayette
Winneshiek Allamakee
Clayton
DelawareBuchananBlack Hawk
GrundyHardinHamilton
WebsterCalhounSacIdaWoodbury
Monona Crawford Carroll Greene Boone Story MarshallTama Benton Linn
J ohnsonIowaPoweshiekJ asperPolkDallasGuthrieAudubonShelbyHarrison
Dubuque
Jackson
Clinton
Scott
Muscatine
Louisa
Washington
J efferson
Van BurenDavis
Wapello
MahaskaMarion
Monroe
AppanooseWayne
Lucas
Warren
Clarke
DecaturRinggold
Union
MadisonAdair
Adams
TaylorPage
Montgomery
CassPottawattamie
Mills
Fremont
Keokuk
Des Moines
Lee
Henry
Cedar
Jones
-9.2%
10.0%
-25.0%
-60.0%
-18.2%
-50.0%
60.0%
n/a
-63.6%
0.0%
n/a
-42.9%-60.0%
-22.2%
-23.1%
-40.0%57.1%7.7%
-22.0%
-14.3%
-30.0%
114.3%
37.5%
-42.9%
-20.0%
0.0% -7.1%
33.3%
0.0%
-15.4%
-50.0% 37.5%
57.1%
10.0%
-27.3%
-34.8% 14.3%
0.0%
-86.0%
0.0%
25.0%
-18.2%
-17.9%
-25.0% -47.9%
-18.2%
-16.7%
0.0%
0.0% 16.7%
-43.5%
0.0%
-35.7%
-25.0%
-9.1%
-50.0%
-10.0%
-23.5%-14.3%
-14.5%
-38.5%
-27.3%
-22.2%-28.6%
-15.0%
-27.3%
-33.3% -15.9%
-18.2%
0.0%
-20.0%
-2.8%
-53.8%-21.4%
-33.3%
-7.7%
-7.7%
5.9%
-20.0%
-7.4%
-18.5%
62.5%
53.6%
33.3%
-45.5%
-11.1%
-12.5%
33.3%0.0%
-26.3%
-27.3%
20.0%5.3%
25.0%
50.0%
0.0%-33.3%
-20.0%
-50.0%
07/23/04
G ro c ery S to r e s I n Io w a C o u n tie sP e r c e n t C h a n g e 1 9 8 2 - 1 9 9 7
Other Sociological Demographics
• Full-line groceries and even “mom & pop” groceries are being replaced by convenience stores with less selection and much higher prices.
• The number of doctors and hospitals have been decreasing in rural counties.
• Where clinics have stayed open in the most rural communities, doctors have been replaced by nurse practitioners.
• Pharmacies have been leaving small communities as aging pharmacists retire.
• Rural churches have had to close or consolidate between smaller communities.
More Sociological Demographics• Over 30% of the Iowa workforce is employed in the five
metropolitan counties in central Iowa.• The flight of young people from rural communities and
increasing worker commute distances for the few who stay have caused a staffing crisis in volunteer fire and EMS services in rural communities.
• Iowa has engaged in a program of converting a web of two lane state highways into four-lane, high-speed expressways in order to service Iowa’s expanding commuter work force.
• The more complex traffic patterns and higher speeds appear to be detrimental to Iowa’s elderly drivers.
Percentage of Drivers Age 65 & Older by County in Iowa
National Fatality Rates by Driver Age
Comparison of Failed-To-Yield-Right-Of-Way Crashes by Age
6.87%7.39%
10.27%
14.11%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
FTYROW from Stop Sign
Under 4545 - 6465 - 7475 and Older
FTYROW Making Left Turn
6.09% 6.34%7.70%
10.52%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Under 45 45 - 64 65 - 74 75 andOlder
How the Elderly Fare in Traffic Crashes
• When the elderly are involved in crashes they are more likely to be killed.
• The older the person is, the lower the survivability in severe crashes.
• At age 75 or older motor vehicle occupants are fatally injured in one out of 90 crashes in which they are involved.
• Persons under the age of 65 were fatally injured in one out of every 160 crashes in which they are involved.
0.59%0.66%
0.86%
1.10%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
Under 45 45 - 64 65 - 74 75 and Older
Fatalities
Conclusions
• The Iowa population is aging.• Rural Counties are losing population.• Rural young people who do not leave the state are moving
to urban/suburban counties.• 30% of Iowa’s employed work in five central Iowa
counties.• Retail, medical, and pharmacy businesses are following the
workforce out of the most rural areas.• The most rural counties have had the largest percentage of
population lost.
Conclusions
• The most rural counties have the oldest median ages and the highest percentage of elderly.
• The most rural counties have the highest percentage of older drivers.
• The services and businesses the elderly depend on are being consolidated increasingly in more urban counties further away from many of Iowa’s oldest citizens.
• Elderly drivers have some of the highest fatality rates per mile driven making the elderly more vulnerable when they have to travel longer distances.
Conclusions• Older drivers are more vulnerable in crashes on the higher
speed roadways the elderly must use to travel to the larger communities where hospitals, doctors, pharmacies, full-line groceries, churches and social activities.
• Transportation alternatives disappear from the smallest communities—new county-based alternatives are hard to start as county tax revenues disappear with fleeing workforce, businesses and support services.
• Elderly Iowans who cannot drive or have had to give up driving end up stranded in communities that are too small to provide transportation alternatives.
Questions?
Scott R. FalbResearch & Statistical Analysis
Office of Driver ServicesIowa Department of Transportation
Phone: 515-237-3154Email: [email protected]