Lecture given to Dutch University students who study democratization in Kurdish region, in the department of

political Science, the University of Amsterdam

11 January 2010

By Dr. Sheth JerjisChairman of the Iraqi Turkmen Human

Rights Research Foundation

Kan. Pelsstraat 566525VA NijmegenThe Netherlandssoitm@turkmen.nl

www.turkmen.nl

“Human Rights Situation in the North of Iraq in the Areas where the Kurdish

Authority Exist”

Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M

ContentsDefinitionsIraqi communities in the regionFigures & analysis of population statistics of

the region and of Kerkuk provinceAnalysis of annual increase in population

statistics Historical regions of non-ruling communitiesPopulation number of religious communitiesPopulation statistics of TurkmenNumber of Kurdish population in Iraq

Calculated number of Kurdish populationOrganization and political rights of non-ruling

communitiesTurkmen and administrationTurkmen in so-called disputed regionsNon-ruling communities under Saddam and nowDifferences bet. and treatment of non-ruling

communitiesNon-ruling communities and elections in the northFuture scenarios, the best and the worst

MapsConcerned regionThree ethnic vertical zonesEthnic distribution of non-ruling communitiesBoundaries of Kurdish expansionBoundaries of Kurdish region according to

the Kurdish Regional GovernmentSatellite maps of Kerkuk city - map of 2002

compared with map of 2007Satellite map of Kerkuk city - Building area

after the fall of Ba’ath regime

DefinitionsThe term ‘Non-ruling community’ has been

used instead of the term ‘Minority’The term ‘Kurdish region’ has been used for

Duhok, Erbil and Sulaymaniya provinces with the Safe Haven boundaries

The term ‘Concerned Region’ has been used for the region in question which include seven provinces

Northern ProvincesErbilDuhokNinevehSulaymaniyaKerkuk

Middel ProvinciesSalah al-DinDiyala

Map of Concerned Region [Enlarge]

Ethnic & Religious Communities in North of IraqAlmost all the ethnic and religious groups of Iraq are

found in the regionEthnic communities

Arabs Kurds Turkmen Chaldea-Assyrians are ethno-religious community

Religious communitiesSunni SheaYazidisOther Shea Groups: Shabaks, Kakais, Sarilya and Bacalan

Table 1, Population of Concerned Provinces

MoP= Ministry of Planning MoT = Ministry of Trade † = By UN & Mop & MoT†† = According to UNICEF the voters are 52% of the Iraqi Population ††† = Used during provincial elections January 2009 †††† = P. Eq. is population Equation

  Column 1

Column 2

Column 3

Column 4

Column 5

Column 6

Province Census 1987

Census 1997

2003†[1]

2004 MoP [2]

2005 by No. of

voters††

2007 MoP [3]

End 2008, MoT? ††† [4]

2009 by P. Eq. ††††

Nineveh 1,479,430

2,042,852

2,473,727

2,554,270

2,583,425

2,811,000

2,860,655

2,632,727

Salah al-Din

726,138  904,432 1,077,785

1,119,369

1,085,783

1,350,000

1,182,126

1,292,202

Diyala 961,073  1,135,223

1,373,862

1,418,455

1,360,765

1,561,000

1,299,267

1,710,282

Kerkuk 601,219  753,171 839,121 854,470 1,544,809

902,000 1,169,445

1,069,902

Sulaymaniya

951,723  1,362,739

2,159,803

1,715,000

1,849,589

1,893,000

1,597,134

1,693,643

Erbil 770,439  1,095,992

1,845,166

1,392,000

1,673,127

1,542,000

1,438,155

1,371,038

Duhok 293,304  402,970 616,609 472,000 882,546 505,000 916,140 521,950

Total 5,783,326

 7,697,379

10,386,073

9,525,564

10,980,044

10,564,000

10,462,922

10,291,744

Census 1987

was the last official census organized by the Iraqi government for all 18 governorates

The population of the Kurdish region accounted for 12% of total Iraqi population

Census 1997 [5]Organized by UN Covered only 15/18 governoratesFigures for the Kurdish region was given by

Kurdish political parties

Table 1

Statistics of 2003 (Column 1)Statistics were collected prior to the fall of

Ba’ath regime on 15.02.2003Under the supervision of the United Nations,

data were collected from the Iraqi government and the Kurdish parties in the Safe Haven

Both the Ministry of Planning & Ministry of Trade participated in collecting the statistics for 15 of the governorates

Statistics where subsequently used in the ‘oil for food programme’

After the fall of Ba’ath regime, almost no

population statistics have been published by the Iraqi Ministry of Trade

Iraqi minister of planning is of Kurdish origin

Table 1

Population estimates based on voters numbers (Column 3)Estimate calculated by number of voters in the Iraqi

general election, December 2005, for example: There was officially 803.301 voters in the Kerkuk province Which make 52% of the total population according to

UNICEF, accordingly The population = 803.301 x 100 / 52 = 1,544,809

Registered voters list’s are compiled by The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq based on Ration Cards given by the province’s authorities

Table 1

Population estimates in 2009 (Column 6) based on Geometric method for computing population growth rate: The population of a specific province in 2009 can be

calculated and estimated based on previous censuses. Using statistics from the previous census (organized by the Iraqi government in 1987), and applying the geometric method of ‘computing the trend’ of Population: P1 = Po (1+gr)n P1 = Population of a province in 2009 Po = Population a province in 1987 GR = Growth Rate

GR in Iraq according to UNICEF was 3% until 1990 and 2,6% from 1990 to 2007

N = Number of Years

Table 1

The UN published figures in 2003 (column 1) for the population in Kurdish region was greatly large, which increased the percentage of Kurds only in the Kurdish region to 17%.This abnormal figures of UN had increased the share of

Kurdish region from the Iraqi budget from 13% to 17% after the fall of Saddam regime

The population of the Province of Kerkuk is abnormally low in figures published by the Iraqi Ministry of

Planning This is despite significant Kurdish resettlement in the

province In contrary to the figures of population registration office of

Kerkuk province (Table 2)

Table 1

Including Iraqis living in the Diaspora, the total population for all 7 provinces should equate to roughly 10,291,744 in 2009 (column 6). On the contrary, the total population for all 7 provinces, excluding Iraqis living in the Diaspora, is larger in 4 earlier estimates (column 1, 3, 4, 5)

Table 1

Based on the number of voters in the Iraqi General Elections of December 2005, (column 3) the population estimates of the;Kerkuk province were greatly exaggeratedKurdish region are the highest of any estimations made

including the estimation from the MoP of 2007 (column 4)Non-Kurdish provinces were convergent in regard to Nineveh

and lower in regard to Salah al-Din and Diyala provinces compared with statistics of 2004 of Ministry of Planning (column 2)

Total population of the seven governorates is estimated to be around 10,291,744 in 2009 (column 6). This figure is smaller than the results of all the previous censuses and estimations, which were conducted during earlier dates.

Table 2, Population No. of Kerkuk province [6]

Census or estimations Population number

Estimate 1921 92,000

Census 1935 223,634

Census 1947 285,900

Census 1957 388,912

Census 1967 478,098

Census 1977 495,400

Census 1987 601,219

Census 1997 771,800

Ration Card in mid-2005 1,047,875

Ration Card in 2006 1,098,061

Identity Card 4/2007 1,353,700

Identity Card 10/2007 [7] 1,368,860

Identity Card 2008 1,464,372

Voters number 2005 1,544,809

Table 2

The two estimations made on the size of the population in Kerkuk, which were based on the number of Ration Cards issued in 2005 and 2006Are figures from the Iraqi Ministry of TradeShow a considerable increases in the population size

The three estimations based on number of identity cards issued Are figures from the Kerkuk Population Registrations

Directorate, which is administered by the Kurds They show large increases in the population size

The calculated population of Kerkuk province based on the number of voters in the Iraqi General Election of December 2005, which was about 800,000, is larger than the figures produced in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 by both the Ministry of Trade and the Registration Directorate

Table 3, Evaluation of Annual Increase

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4

Regions 1987 – 1997 1997 – 2003 UN

MoP & MoT

1997 – 2007 ministry of planning

1997 – 2005 calculated by

voters list

Shea† 3.4% 3.2% 3.5% 4%

Sunni†† 3.6% 3.3% 3.5% 3.8%

Kerkuk 2.5% 1.9% 2% 13.1%

Kurdish† 4.2% 10.3% 3.8% 6.7%

Total 3.5% 4.1% 3.5% 4.6%

† = Shea region includes the 9 southern provinces† † = Sunni region includes the five provinces where the Sunnis are the majority † † † = Kurdish region is the KRG three provinces

Table 3

This table indicates the population growth annually. The growth is expressed in percentages. Below is an example of how these are calculated.A figure for the Census in 1997 – A figure for the

Census in 1987 = population increase in 10 yearsPopulation increase x 100 / Figure of census

1987 = percentage of increasePercentage of increase / number of years bet. 2

censuses or estimations = Percentage of annual increase

Table 3

Census 1987 and 1997 (column 1)The growth in population of both the Shea and Sunni

regions during this 10 year period, are relatively comparable to both one another and to the regional average

Population of Kurdish region increased 0.7% above the average despite the fact that: The large number of Anfal victims, which the western

library puts it into 200,000. Tens of thousands of Kurds have fled Iraq and established

in Europe, in order to: Improve their economical status Escape

The economical embargo in Iraq The civil war between two Kurdish parties

Table 3

More than 20 thousand victims of the civil war between the two main Kurdish parties abroad

The Kerkuk province has the lowest rate of growth. This can be attributed to several factors including; forced deportation, fleeing of non –Arabic individuals

Table 3

Census 1997 and estimation of 2003 by UN (column 2)Population size of both the Shia and Sunni regions grew

at slightly below average rate The figures estimated that the Kerkuk population had

further decreased, despite the fact it was a quiet period of deportation.

Population of Kurdish region Hugely enlarged Equal three fold of increase in Sunni and Shea regions The abnormal increase in population of Kurdish region

between the censuses of 1997 and the estimations of the UN of 2003, can not be attributed to the influence of any contributing factor or event.

Table 3

Census 1997 and calculation of population in 2005 by voters numbers (column 4)Slightly increase in Shea and Sunni regions.Population of Kurdish region increased more than

one and half fold as much as of Shia and Sunni regions

Kerkuk population hugely increased, which clearly demonstrates the demographical change in the province

The increases in population figures of all regions during this period indicates that voters registration lists were generally exaggerated

Three zones in the North [Enlarge] Other groups in Kurdish region

Non-ruling

communities in

Kurdish region

According to the nature of population, North of

Iraq can be divided in to three vertical Zones, Eastern Zone which is

KRG region Mainly Kurdish

Middle Zone Non-ruling community’s zone Highly mixed Cities of non-ruling communities: Sinjar – Rashidiya -

Telafer – Telkeyf – Hamdaniya – Shaykhan Eski Kelek – Erbil – Kus Tepe – Altun Kopru – Kerkuk – Daquq – Tuz Khurmatu – Kifri – Kara Tepe – Mendeli – Kiz Rabat – Khanaqin - Badra

Western Zone

Mainly Arabic Cities: Mosul – Shirgat – Beiji – Tikrit - Samarra

Non-Kurdish communities in Kurdish regionDuhok Province

Yazidi, Chaldea-Assyrians and ShabaksErbil Province

Turkmen in Erbil city Chaldea-Assyrians

Ain Kawa region Kush Tepe sub-district

Sulaymaniya Province Turkmen and Arabs in Kifri

Map of Ethnic Distribution [Enlarge]

Historical Regions of non-ruling communities Subdivision Shea groups

The Shabaks are found in many villages in west, north and east of Mosul province, for example, Baashiqa, Wardak, Toprak Ziyaret, Telafer....

The Bajalan are also present in many Shabak villages in the east of Mosul, for example, Yarimca, Dilyara, Orta Kharab...

The Kakais or Sariliye are found In several villages on the banks of the Great Zab Telafer South of Kerkuk, mainly Daquq region

Yazidi regions

Mosul Province Sinjar and Shaykhan districts are well known Yazidis

Districts located in the west and east of the province In different sub-districts and villages of Nineveh plain

with Chaldea-Assyrians and ShabaksDuhok Province, mainly in the following regions

Zakho Summel Baadra

Chaldea-Assyrians

Mosul province They can be found in Mosul city, in large numbers Telkif, Batnaya, Hamdaniya, Bartalla are also well

known Chaldea-Assyrian regionsDuhok province

They are found in Duhok city, again in large numbers They also maintain a presence in many villages

throughout the province Tens of Chaldea-Assyrian villages in Duhok province

were almost completely Kurdified in over the past forty years

Erbil province

Large Ayn Kawa neighbourhood in Erbil city and the sub-district Kush Tepe are Chaldea-Assyrian

Kerkuk province Mainly in New Kerkuk and Almas neighbourhoods

Turkmen

In Mosul province Mosul

Mosul city Several villages, the largest of which are Sallamiya,

Rashidiya and Kara KoyunluTelafer District is a well know and heavily populated

Turkmen district Iyadiya and Mahlabiya sub-districts and multiple local

villagesErbil City

Historically a Turkmen city which has been exposed to heavy Kurdish immigration and subsequently has become their capital. 1/3 of the population today are Turkmen

Kerkuk Province

Kerkuk city is well known Turkmen city, despite long peroid of intensive Arabification and Kurdification processes, the Turkmen are still constituting a considerable part of population

Many Turkmen sub-districts and villages are found in the south, west and north of the province. Altun Kopri sub-disrict in the north Dibis region in the north west In the west: Yaychi, Kumbetler..... In the south: Daquq district, Taze Khurmatu and

Leylan sub-districts.....

Salah al-Din province

Tuz Khurmatu is one of the largest Iraqi districts Yengice sub-district

Bayat region in the south of Tuz Khurmatu includes large sub-districts of: Bastamli Emirli Sulayman beg, which has become mainly Arabified

Diyala Province

Includes several large districts and sub-districts Kifri and Khanaqin,

Exposed to continuous Kurdification, The Turkmen population today constitutes around

20% of these cities population Kara Tepe sub-district Kizrabat sub-district Mandali

Mandali had an estimated population of nearly 70 thousand in the 1970’s

Today population is estimated to be around 20 thousand

Qazzaniya Baladruz Adana Koy

Baghdad There is an estimated three hundred thousand Turkmen

living in Baghdad, according to some Turkmen sources. Kut province

Badra District Arabified Turkmen Tribes, such as, the well known

Karaguli tribe, have spread to the south of Baghdad and Kut provinces, and constitute a population of tens of thousands

The number of Turkmen deported to the south by the Ba’ath regime in not known

Boundaries of Kurdish Expansion [Enlarge]

KRG’s Boundary of Kurdish Region [Enlarge]

Figures of census 1947 Chaldea-Assyrians 149,656 3.1% Yazidis 32,437

0.67% Shabaks were considered with ‘others’

UN, MoP & MoT – 2003 Chaldea-Assyrians 334,488 1.2% Yazidis 281,984 1% Shabaks were considered with ‘others’

Shabaks – accord. unofficial sources is 2 – 4,00,000

Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M

Population of Religious Communities

Population Statistics of TurkmenAll census presents 2%, including early

results of census 1957In the final results, which included the

amended results of the 1957 census: (The last in which the Turkmen were

permitted to register – counted 567,000 Turkmen (9% of the population) among Iraq’s population of 6,300,000) †

This census counted 819,000 Kurds which makes 13% of the population †† = the report number 735 of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Size of Kurdish PopulationThe census of 1957 819,000 (13%)CJ Edmonds, 17-20%Longrigg 1,250,000 / 8,500,000 14.7%

CIA 15-20%WJ Elphinston 13%Robert Zeidner 12%Martin J. Dent 13%George L. Harris, 17%Other sources 20% & 23%- KRG region receives 17% of the total Iraqi Budget- Percentage of the Kurdish members in the Iraqi Parliament is 20%

Calculated Number of Kurdish Population in IraqNo census, figures from 1997 onwards are only

estimations Total Iraqi Population was 12,000,497 in 1977Applying the equation P0=P1 (1+gr)NTotal Iraqi Population in 2009 is estimated at 28,700,073

The official number today has been exaggerated to > 32,000,000

Kurds possibly represent 17% of the populationThe Kurdish population in 2009 should therefore be

around 4,879,012While official KRG numbers estimate it around 4,5 million

Estimated number of Kurds out of KRG population should be around 2 million

Organization and Political Rights of Non-ruling CommunitiesJudit Neurink is a well known Dutch journalist

who has frequently visited the Kurdish region In her article titled: “A true copy of the Saddam

regime” she comments that: The Kurdish authorities are similar to Saddam’s regime The Political parties control all the components of the

society, Only members of certain Kurdish political parties are

appointed to the government The government has one million staff members, who

work for `the ruling parties and receive additional privileges.

The power of the parties is observable in all civil and political domains

Turkmen organizations in Erbil from 1991 to

2005The Turkmen Political parties were:

ITF Turkmeneli Party Turkmen national party Independent party

The Turkmen civil society organizations were: Turkmen House Turkmen Brotherhood cultural club

Local TV and RadioDispensaryPrint house Turkmeneli newspaperInformation officeDirectorate of educationTurkmen Union and Syndicate13 Turkmen schoolsTurkmen department - Institution for Teachers

The number of Turkmen run organisational buildings was 24

Eradication of Turkmen organizations

All Turkmen buildings were confiscated in April 2005 Name of the Turkmeneli Television and Radio were

changed and have in turn been used as a propaganda instruments by the Kurdish authorities.

The Turkmeneli newspaper has been discontinued Turkmeneli print house has been closed, followed by the

sale of all content The dispensary has been closed, and again the contents

were sold. Turkmen Institution for Teachers was closed Buildings were given to Pro-Kurdish Turkmen parties &

orgs

Only one Turkmen party remains active

It is situated in one small building Its activities are severely limited It is significantly infiltrated by the Kurdish

authorities It is not allowed to pursue political, social and

cultural activities, outside of their own building. Governmental buildings cannot be rented. logistical supporters of Turkmen organizations are

exposed to intimidation, exploitation and violence

Pro-Kurdish Turkmen parties and orgs were

instituted by Kurdish parties They receive their salaries from the Kurdish

authorities They have almost no activities

Turkmen Schoolsadministered by non-expert Kurdish staff curricular is devised by Kurdish specialistsKurdish language is imposed on students from

an early ageMainly Kurdish history is studied

The Syllabus is monitored by Kurdish

supervisorsKurdish directors are appointed to administer

these schoolsThe content of the curricular, the explanatory

drawings, and the activities all reflect the Kurdish heritage and culture

The educational quality has steadily worsened, and consequently, registration is currently significantly decreased

Restrictions on other rights

The Turkmen publications, other than 2 or 3 pro-Kurdish Turkmen publications, are not allowed to be sold in shops or put in the libraries

Cafés and public houses can not operate Turkmen TV and radio keep the Turkmen publications

Election campaigns 2005 Turkmen parties were only allowed to hang their

posters and flags outside their own buildings

Turkmen and AdministrationThere are two Turkmen districts in Kurdish

regionErbil cityKifri district

Erbil city

In the early 20th century almost 90% of population of Erbil city was Turkmen

Today, at least 1/3 of the city are Turkmen City council members are divided solely between two

Kurdish partiesKifri district

Historically a Turkmen region In the 1950s the Turkmen represented a majority of the

population Now only 20% of the population are Turkmen

There is no Turkmen in district council Of 17 directors in governmental offices there is only 1

Turkmen representative

Turkmen in so-called Disputed RegionsKerkuk Province

There has been a policy of Kurdification of the administration in Kerkuk. The Governor, Mayor, Police chief and Directors of

most of the Governmental offices and Police systems are Kurdish

Security system is almost completely Kurdified as well

Kerkuk population was

830,000 at the day of the 2003 occupation (table 1) By 2008 its was estimated to be around 1,400,000

(table 2) Number of voters was 803,000 in general elections

of December 2005 Propriety Claim commission

Total complaint cases are 36,000 Almost 80% are from the Turkmen people Only 3200 of these cases were completed

Satellite maps of Kerkuk city - map of 2002

compared with map of

2007

Satellite map of Kerkuk city – the building area after increased

about 20 Km sq. between 2003 and 2007

The area was built after occupation the

fall of Ba’ath regime

Khanaqin

This is another Historical Turkmen city Now at least 15% of the population are Turkmen

There were 3 Turkmen in the district council Unbearable intimidation forced them to join

Kurdish groups

21 directors in Governmental offices 18 are from Kurdish parties 3 from Arab and Turkmen parties combined

Differences bet. and treatment of non-ruling communitiesPopulation sizeReligious and ethnicAll exposed to suppression in the northThe religious minorities were also exposed to

attacks by Sunni extremists

Non-ruling communities under Saddam and NowIn Ba’ath period

Suppression was mainly ideological and ethnically based There was a single nationalist party, which mainly

excluded non-ruling communities Demographical changes

Arabification of minority regions Demolition of villages

Political executions All non-Ba’ath communities were exposed to

violations of their human rights Due to armed rebellion of Kurdish groups, many

Kurdish regions were exposed to atrocities

Related to the Turkmen

Enforced demographical modifications, particularly in Kerkuk province, as a result of; Resettlement of Arabs in Turkmen regions Demolition of Turkmen regions in Kerkuk, Mosul,

Diyala Political executions

Sectarian, large number Turkmen Shea were exposed to execution

National, execution of politicians and activists (Parties and Organisations)

Post Ba’ath Period

Suppression is ethnical and religious It includes seizing of lands

Demographical changes as a result of the resettlement of Kurdish communities

Intimidations, arrests, killings and assassinations Marginalisation in administration. Kurdish mainatin

political and civil dominanceExposure to terrorist attacks (Unknown

origin)Institution of pro-Kurdish Turkmen political

parties and civil society orgs

Non-Ruling Communities and Elections in the NorthFactors which render elections totally

impartialPoliticized administration

Governmental Security Militia

Ruling Kurdish authorities dominate and claim the lands of non-ruling communities

Absence of a democratic cultureInexperienced, unqualified and politicized

election and governmental administration

As it is mentioned

Kurdish domination of administration after election in Erbil Kifri Khanaqin Kerkuk

All of which are not historically or statistically (population size) Kurdish areas

Future Scenarios, the Best and the WorstMajor disagreements in the North are:

Power of the federal authorities Kurdish authorities functioning as an independent region

which specifically violates the Iraqi constitution So-called disputed areas

Historically non-Kurdish regions Most of these regions were populated mainly by non-

Kurds before the occupation and in other regions the Kurds increased in later decades

The large underground wealth is dominated and controlled by Kurdish population

The presence of Peshmerga militiaAmendment of the constitution

Scenario IThe continuation of the present situation will

maintain:The current instabilityThe suppression of non-ruling communitiesAnd weaken the Iraqi state

Scenario IIWithdrawal of occupation troops without

solving major disagreements with the:Inflexible attitudes of Kurdish political parties

The war will be unavoidable

Scenario IIIBargain on the Lands will be

At the expense of the non-ruling communitiesBargain on the underground wealth will

Leave a weak Iraqi stateRule out the enduring national and regional

stability

ConclusionsThe so-called Disputed region is vast region inhabited by

millions of people Iraqi non-ruling communities are large population inhabit mainly

the so-called disputed regionsThe United Nations authorities accepted the abnormally

exaggerated population figures of Kurdish political parties for ‘Food for Ration’ program. These figures are still in use.

The population size of the Iraqi Turkmen has constantly underestimated

The population statistics of ministry of Planning is higher than that of ministry of Trade

Kerkuk province has exposed to massive demographical changes after occupation

The policy of Kurdish political parties is expansionist policy which suppress the non-Kurdish communities

The Kurdish political parties dictate their terms and the involved powers and international community do not move a finger

Discussion

Discussion

Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M