lecture 35: conclusion – 911: a macro history 14 th may 2003 (wednesday)
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Lecture 35: Conclusion –
911: A Macro History
14th May 2003 (Wednesday)
Structure of Lecture 35
Introduction: Concept of the Historical
Cross in Real Life Linear History or Cyclic
History? New Era By Invitation? Old Era of Imposition? Imagine the Future……
PART I: Introduction –
Concept of the Historical Cross in Real Life
Decision-makers of the Post-911 World Order
Challengers: Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaeda and I
slamic Fundamentalism An Anti-American Coalition?
Counter-challengers/ “Re-challengers”: George W Bush, Donald Rumsfel
d and USA An Anti-Terror Coalition?
Responders: Nations and People of the World –
from Europeans to Iraqis
Pre-determinism Vs Voluntarism
Can Human Beings Control their Own Future?
Pre-determinism and Fatalism Importance of the “Externalities” The Prophetic Perspectives Mark Roberti: “The Fall of Hong Kong”?
Voluntarism Importance of Human Consciousness The Marxist (Atheist) Perspectives The Western Expedition of Genghis Khan
Where Does the Post-911 World Order Fit in?
911 as a “Trigger Action” at the Historic Cross
911 as a “Trigger Action” at the Historic Cross ~ Sarajevo Assassination (1914)? ~ Pearl Harbor Incident (1941)? ~ Berlin Blockade Crisis (1948)?
The Choice of the Decision-makers: to Walk Back into the Old History Reaganistic Unilateralism Cold War Ideological Dictatorship Rethinking the Proposal for the New
American Century (PNAC)
911 in the Fatalist—Voluntary Paradigm
Cold War Historian John Gaddis: USA in Europe = “Empire by Invitation
” USSR in Europe = “Empire of Impositi
on” The Pre-determined Part of 911:
Decision-maker = “Fate” (i.e. the Trend of Human Development) through Osama Bin Laden
“New Era by Invitation” The Voluntary Part of 911:
Decision-maker = George W Bush “Old Era of Imposition”
*Graphic Macro History of 911
1945-1985 Peak of Cold War
1985-1989 Peak of Reaganism
1991-2001 Clintonistic Interlude
1945 2001
New Era by Invitation? Substantiation of the Globalized Era
Old Era of Imposition? Return to the Cold War/ Pre-Clintonistic Order
Other Directions: Brand New Era/ Damn Old Era……
PART IILinear History or Cyclic
History?
Linear History? Both Pre-determinism and Vol
untarism One-way Ticket Long-term Historic Trend ~ Ha
ng Seng Index/ SARS Index Y: Year X: Variables (e.g. Human Liveliho
od, Human Evolution, Materialistic Complexity……)
Where is 911 in the Different Graphs? New Era Vs Old Era Debate (PA
RT I)
Cyclic History?
Both Pre-determinism and Voluntarism Arnold Toynbee (1889-1975): A Study of
History Fate of Each Civilization is Pre-
determined Birth Rise Decline Death Western Civilization will be the Only Remaining
Culture (Earlier Version) Chinese Civilization would be the Savior of the
World (Later Version)
But Human Beings Still Have the Ability to Control the PACE
BirthDeath
RiseDecline
911 and the American HegemonyIn the Historic Cycle
911 Speed up the American Cycle or Slow Down the American Cycle?
Starting the End of American Hegemony?
The Short-term Increase of American Power will led to its Long-term Demise?
Prolonging the American Hegemony?
PART IIINew Era
by Invitation?
“Milestone” of George W Bush Tomorrow is September 12th. A milestone is pass
ed, and a mission goes on. Our cause is even larger than our country. Ours is
the cause of human dignity: freedom guided by conscience and guarded by peace. This ideal of America is the hope of all mankind. That hope drew millions to this harbor. That hope still lights our way. And the light shines in the darkness. And the darkness will not overcome it.
-- George W Bush (11 September 2002)
911 as the Real End of Cold War?
Cold War (1945-1991): Bipolarity and Beyond John Gaddis: “We Know Now” – Know
What? The New Cold War Vs Russia and
China (1991-2001)? Anatol Lieven: “The Cold War is
Finally Over” Russian Analyst In What Sense? Really?
Francis Fukuyama’s Argument
Francis Fukuyama American Japanese, Political Scientist The End of History and the Last Man (198
9) “Islamo-Fascism” Challenging the Pre
dicament in Globalization “Western Institutions Hold All the Cards
and for that Reason will Continue to Spread Across the Globe in the Long Run”
911 = Part of the Globalization Process, Still Towards the “End of History”
Revision: Why a Brand New Era?
Asymmetrical Warfare Rise of Non-state Actors Emergence of Terrorists with “No
Common Senses” Rationalization of Extremist
Methods to Fight Against the Extremist Terrorists
Other New Features about the Actor, Event, Venue, Tool and Timing……
Ideals of this New Era
“Lennonism” A World Divided in Values and Culture
s Fall of State Absolutism/ Single Hege
mony A Non-violent Path Towards this Ideal
Or the Terrorist Agenda from the American Perspective? A World Ruled by Terror Fall of Legitimate States Global Terrorism against Human Natu
re
Part IV –Old Era of Imposition?
Eric Hobsbawm’s Argument Eric Hobsbawm
British Leftist Social Historian Rise of American Rightists Before 911
~ Rise of European Rightists Before WWI
~ Rise of European Rightists Before WWII
~ Rise of Communism Before WWII Goal of American Rightists = Establishing
a Military Hegemony of the World ~ Goals of European Rightists and Co
mmunists Bush ~ Hitler?! ……
John Gaddis’s Argument
John Gaddis US Cold War Historian
The World Has Never Changed Since the End of Cold War
Kosovo War in the Globalized Era = “American Bloc Vs Russian Bloc”
911 = American Bloc Vs Terrorist Bloc
Communism = Authoritarianism = Terrorism = American Enemies
Fareed Zakaria’s Argument
Fareed Zakaria: “The Return of History” Newsweek Editor
Return of Politics Political over Economics Again
Return of Government The World Ruled by Big Governments in
stead of Individuals/ Market Again Return of “History” (Ideology)
Christian/ Islamic/ Patriotic Beliefs Back Again
Vs Francis Fukuyama’s “The End of History”
Kenneth Waltz’s Argument
Kenneth Waltz Waltzian Neo-Realism Founder in Internat
ional Relations Discipline Theory of International Politics
The Continuity of International Politics (of the 1990s?) Imbalance of Power in the World Nuclear Proliferation Prevalence of Globalized Crises with Ame
rican Involvement
Revision: Why a Damn Old Era?
Symmetrical Warfare in Favor of the Hegemony
Prolongation of State Actors Pre-emption of Terrorists with
“No Common Senses” Anti-Terrorism becomes a
Moralistic Ideology Other New Features about the
Actor, Event, Venue, Tool and Timing Retreat to their Old Forms?……
Ideals of this “Old” Era
A World with No Terrorists A World United by the American
Values A World of Clear Moralistic Division
A Predictable World Order and Structure based on the US Hegemony Theory of Hegemonic Stability
*Regardless of the Bloody “Transitional” Path Towards this Ideal
Assigned Readings
Main Text: Francis Fukuyama: “History and September 11”
(B&D P.27-36) Anatol Lieven: “The Cold War is Finally Over”
(H&R P.295-306) Fareed Zakaria: “The Return of History” (H&R
P.307-318) Supplementary References:
Kenneth Waltz: “The Continuity of International Politics” (B&D P.348-354)
John Gaddis: “And Now This.” The Age of Terror. Ed. Strobe Talbott and Nayan Chanda. The Perseus Press, 2001. P.1-22.
Conclusion – Imagine
the Future……
Consensus of the Different Interpretations
of the Post-911 World Order
“New Era” Argument also Acknowledges: American Power Expanded Gross Imbalance of Power
Continued ……
“Old Era” Argument also Acknowledges: Alternative Battle Fronts in addition
to Politics/ Military Introduced They are Needed to be Developed
by Other Nations/ Individuals ……
Let’s Complete the Interpretations Together!
Future of USA:Hegemony Forever?
New Americanized Order in the World
Continuation of the Middle East Campaign
Increasing International Bandwagon towards USA
Bilateral Relationship with USA (~Suzerainty of Imperial China) > Multilateral Relationship with UN
….. As Long as the Constraints are
NOT Constraining the US Power, the US Hegemony will Sustain Forever Tautology?! Chicken or Egg?!
Future of USA: Imperial Overreach?
Imperial Overreach like the Roman Empire? Internal Constraints
Political Constraints (Congress, Opposition Party)
Financial Constraints(“Fall Behind Japan” in the 90s?)
External Constraints International Diplomatic Opposition Effective Military Back-off Propaganda Counteraction
Invisible Constraints in History Hygiene/ Plague/ Mystery…
Are these constraints existing today?!
“Pax Globalica”—Ideal of Human Beings?
Imagine there's no heaven,It's easy if you try,No hell below us,Above us only sky,Imagine all the peopleliving for today...
Imagine there's no countries,It isn’t hard to do,Nothing to kill or die for,No religion too,Imagine all the peopleliving life in peace...
Imagine no possessions,I wonder if you can,No need for greed or hunger,A brotherhood of man,Imagine all the peopleSharing all the world...
You may say I’m a dreamer,but I’m not the only one,I hope some day you'll join us,And the world will live as one.
Final Remarks ^o^
Rule No. 1: The Facts Are Unimportant
Rule No. 2: The Analysis and Logic Are More Important
Rule No. 3: The Inter-transferability is the Most Important
Your Feel, My Feel
~~The End~~Thank you very much for your enthusiasm and
consideration in the whole course~
Hope seeing you again in the future!