Lecture 20: Lecture 20: Failed StatesFailed States

February 23, 2009February 23, 2009

Extra Credit OpportunityExtra Credit Opportunity Dr. Melvyn Leffler, Edward Stettinius Professor Dr. Melvyn Leffler, Edward Stettinius Professor

of American History, University of Virginia of American History, University of Virginia

““CONTEMPORARY DILEMMAS and COLD WAR CONTEMPORARY DILEMMAS and COLD WAR LESSONS”LESSONS”

““Can we learn anything from our experiences in Can we learn anything from our experiences in the Cold War? The answer is yes, and the the Cold War? The answer is yes, and the lessons are reassuring as well as surprising.” lessons are reassuring as well as surprising.”

February 27, 2009, 7:00 PM, Kane Hall, Rm February 27, 2009, 7:00 PM, Kane Hall, Rm 210210

StatesStates Weber: legitimate monopoly of violenceWeber: legitimate monopoly of violence

+ extract taxes+ extract taxes provide public servicesprovide public services

1717thth century: princes, war, taxes, century: princes, war, taxes, consolidationconsolidation

1919thth/20/20thth century century nation-state nation-state Colonial boundaries retained after Colonial boundaries retained after

independenceindependence Post-WWII: high demands made on statesPost-WWII: high demands made on states

What’s a Failed State?What’s a Failed State? loss of physical control of territory or a monopoly on loss of physical control of territory or a monopoly on

the legitimate use of forcethe legitimate use of force erosion of legitimate authority to make collective erosion of legitimate authority to make collective

decisions decisions an inability to provide reasonable public servicesan inability to provide reasonable public services

““the collapse of state institutions, especially the police the collapse of state institutions, especially the police and judiciary, with resulting paralysis of governance, and judiciary, with resulting paralysis of governance, a breakdown of law and order, and general banditry a breakdown of law and order, and general banditry and chaos. Not only are the functions of government and chaos. Not only are the functions of government suspended, but its assets are destroyed or looted and suspended, but its assets are destroyed or looted and experienced officials are killed or flee the country.”experienced officials are killed or flee the country.”--Boutros Boutros-Ghali --Boutros Boutros-Ghali

Indicators (FP Magazine)Indicators (FP Magazine) Social IndicatorsSocial Indicators 1.  Mounting Demographic Pressures 1.  Mounting Demographic Pressures 2.  Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced 2.  Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons Persons

creating Complex Humanitarian Emergenciescreating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies 3.  Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group 3.  Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group

ParanoiaParanoia 4.  Chronic and Sustained Human Flight 4.  Chronic and Sustained Human Flight

  Economic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators 5.  Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines 5.  Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines 6.  Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline 6.  Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline

  Political IndicatorsPolitical Indicators 7.  Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State 7.  Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State 8.  Progressive Deterioration of Public Services 8.  Progressive Deterioration of Public Services 9.  Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law 9.  Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and and Widespread Violation of Human RightsWidespread Violation of Human Rights 10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State" 10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State" 11. Rise of Factionalized Elites 11. Rise of Factionalized Elites 12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors 12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4350

Who’s a Failed State?Who’s a Failed State?

2008 “Winners”2008 “Winners” 1) Somalia1) Somalia 2) Sudan2) Sudan 3) Zimbabwe3) Zimbabwe 4) Chad4) Chad 5) Iraq5) Iraq 6) Democratic Republic of the Congo6) Democratic Republic of the Congo 7) Afghanistan7) Afghanistan 8) Ivory Coast 8) Ivory Coast 9) Pakistan9) Pakistan 10) Central African Republic10) Central African Republic

Why Should We Care About Why Should We Care About Failed States?Failed States?

Failed states Failed states civil war; internal civil war; internal conflict conflict state failure state failure

Wars Over TimeWars Over Time

Why Should We Care About Why Should We Care About Failed States?Failed States?

Failed states Failed states civil war; civil war civil war; civil war state failurestate failure

RefugeesRefugees Breakdown of public health, Breakdown of public health,

infrastructureinfrastructure famine, epidemics famine, epidemics Illicit tradeIllicit trade Terrorism Terrorism

Why States Fail I: Identity-Why States Fail I: Identity-based Conflictbased Conflict

1919thth and 20 and 20thth century conflicts century conflicts involved nation-statesinvolved nation-states

““Re-emergence” of ancient identities Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21in 21stst century century

Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” (1993)Civilizations” (1993) Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of

people and the broadest level of cultural people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other distinguishes humans from other species.” species.”

8 civilizations8 civilizations

Huntington’s WorldHuntington’s World

Why States Fail I: Identity-Why States Fail I: Identity-based Conflictbased Conflict

1919thth and 20 and 20thth century conflicts involved nation- century conflicts involved nation-statesstates

““Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21stst century?century?

Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” (1993)(1993) Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people

and the broadest level of cultural identity people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species.” from other species.”

8 civilizations8 civilizations FaultlinesFaultlines

Faultlines?Faultlines?

Why States Fail I: Identity-Why States Fail I: Identity-based Conflictbased Conflict

1919thth and 20 and 20thth century conflicts involved nation- century conflicts involved nation-statesstates

““Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21stst century?century?

Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” (1993)(1993) Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people and Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people and

the broadest level of cultural identity people have short the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species.” of that which distinguishes humans from other species.”

8 civilizations8 civilizations FaultlinesFaultlines Influential in (some) policy circles Influential in (some) policy circles Criticism: Selective evidence; simplistic; self-fulfilling?Criticism: Selective evidence; simplistic; self-fulfilling?

Why States Fail II: Colonial Why States Fail II: Colonial LegaciesLegacies

Artificial bordersArtificial borders Low levels of developmentLow levels of development Independence without state institutionsIndependence without state institutions Failed attempts to build national identityFailed attempts to build national identity Incompetent governanceIncompetent governance

Corruption Corruption PatronagePatronage Autocracy Autocracy

Extreme poverty and debtExtreme poverty and debt

Why Do States Fail?Why Do States Fail? Artificial bordersArtificial borders Low levels of developmentLow levels of development Premature independencePremature independence Failed attempts to build national identityFailed attempts to build national identity Incompetent governanceIncompetent governance

Corruption Corruption PatronagePatronage Autocracy Autocracy

Extreme poverty and debtExtreme poverty and debt End of Cold War supportEnd of Cold War support Greed and grievance Greed and grievance

Democratic Republic of Democratic Republic of Congo, Formerly Known as Congo, Formerly Known as

ZaireZaire

DRC’s Collapse DRC’s Collapse Cold War support (Mobutu installed Cold War support (Mobutu installed

1965)1965) Corrupt, repressive governmentCorrupt, repressive government End of Cold War supportEnd of Cold War support Rebellion, plunderRebellion, plunder Opportunistic intervention Opportunistic intervention

How to Fix Failed States?How to Fix Failed States? Externally driven state-building Externally driven state-building

long-term commitment, intelligent long-term commitment, intelligent planning, deep understanding of society planning, deep understanding of society and culture, international cooperation, lots and culture, international cooperation, lots of money, acceptance of casualtiesof money, acceptance of casualties

Need a state-building corps?Need a state-building corps? Governance reformGovernance reform Foreign aidForeign aid ContainmentContainment Why it’s difficult: collective action problemWhy it’s difficult: collective action problem

—everyone waits for everyone else to act —everyone waits for everyone else to act