the closing bell - leffler commodities

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The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Leffler Commodities, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject

to change without notice. Recommendations made should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell commodities. Past performance results are not necessarily indicative of future results. THERE IS A RISK IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.

3/23/2018 of 10

THE CLOSING BELL

THE CLOSING BELL By Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn

www.LefflerCom.com

TODAY’S THOUGHT

Friday, March 23, 2018 The starting point of all achievement is desire

CATTLE and HOGS

Futures Contract

Net Change

Closing Price

Today's High

Today's Low

14- Day RSI

10-Day Moving

Avg.

50-Day Moving

Avg. Contract

High Contract

Low 30-Year

High 30-Year

Low Apr 18 LC -2.10 116.050s 118.43 115.75 27.92 120.13 123.21 131.10 98.85 171.10 52.60 Jun 18 LC -2.20 106.200s 108.58 106.00 23.49 110.49 114.67 121.52 96.40 162.92 52.42 Apr 18 FC -1.93 136.100s 137.85 135.63 28.25 139.46 145.96 158.72 131.17 237.62 51.67 May 18 FC -1.23 137.300s 138.95 136.43 28.13 140.35 146.48 157.85 131.50 237.52 46.15 Jun 18 LH -1.33 74.150s 75.58 73.23 28.81 77.16 80.90 85.85 73.22 133.42 39.82

• Today was another session of new lows for the current slide for the entire cattle complex and triple-digit losses on the close

• Monday should be lower due to the negative report today, but we could find technical buying • The CME cash feeder cattle index has been lower 16 of the past 17 sessions for a total of $9.99 • Sterling Beef Profit Tracker shows feedlot margins per head for the week ending Mar 16th at

$139.65; week ago $194.58; month ago $206.15 and year ago $426.56… Link to Full Data • The USDA national feeder cattle summary for the week ending March 23rd showed total

receipts (auctions, direct & video/internet) at 296,500, last week was 311,300 and a year ago was 409,500 head. Feeder steer and heifers were $3 to $10 lower than last week.

• Weekly estimated cattle slaughter is 607,000 head, last week 595,000 and year ago 613,000

• This Week the USDA’s Steer Cash Negotiated Cattle mandatory reporting service reported KS sold 20,878 head at $123.00-$126.00 and $202.00-$203.00 TX/OK/NM sold 5,664 head at $125.00-$126.00 NE sold 52,758 head at $124.00-$128.00 and $200.00-$203.00 IA/MN sold 33,079 head at $122.000-$130.00 and $200.00-$204.00 CO sold 3,551 head at $124.00-$126.00

• Last Week the USDA’s Steer Cash Negotiated Cattle mandatory reporting service reported KS sold 23,697 head at $126.00-$127.00 (Wtd. Avg $126.87) TX/OK/NM sold 5,598 head at $127.00 (Wtd. Avg $127.00) NE sold 36,723 head at $127.00-$129.00 (Wtd. Avg $128.17) and$203.00-$207.00 ($204.93) IA/MN sold 34,326 head at $126.00-$132.00 (Wtd. Avg $129.00) and $204.00-$208.00 ($205.75) CO sold 3,980 head at $128.00-$128.50 (Wtd. Avg $128.37)

Mon Mar 26…10:00 am…Export Inspections Tues Mar 27…3:30 pm…API Energy Stocks Wed Mar 28…7:30 am..GDP (Q4 ’17) 9:30 am…EIA Energy Stocks Thur Mar 29…7:30 am…Export Sales

https://www.drovers.com/sites/default/files/inline-files/Beef%20Tracker%2032018.pdf




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THE CLOSING BELL

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• The lean hogs closed with triple-digit losses today, the April contract made a new contract low for the fifth straight session and today the June contract made a contract low and July was within 27-cents of its contract low.

• Sterling Pork Profit Tracker shows farrow to finish margins per head for the week ending Mar 16th at $8.52; week ago $14.93; month ago $25.80 and year ago $26.21… Link to Full Data

• Weekly estimated hog slaughter is 2.409 million head, last week 2.413 and year ago 2.323 Tom Leffler

April Live Cattle traded mostly negative, made a new low for the move the lowest since September 7th and closed negative today. Support is at $115.75 the March Low… $113.20 the September Low. Resistance is at $118.00 area… $120.21 the 200-DMA… $122.50 area… $123.52 the 100-DMA… $124.82 the March High… $127.95 the February High… $130.10 the November & Contract High

April Feeder Cattle today traded near the low of the week the lowest since August 18th and closed negative with its lowest close of the week. Support is at $135.60 the March Low… $134.52 the August Low… $131.17 Contract Low. Resistance is at $138.00… $142.00 area… $144.80 the 200-DMA… $147.21 the 100-DMA… $150.00 area… $153.10 the February High… $153.87 the November 30th High… $158.72 the November & Contract High

F.I. Cattle Kill Daily/wk. totals Box Beef Prices Net Change Box Beef Load Count

Today 108K / 581K Choice 600-900 $223.09 - $2.12 Choice Cuts 48 Week Ago 107K / 573K Select 600-900 $216.40 - $1.62 Select Cuts 28 Year Ago 114K / 580K Choice/Select Spread $6.69 Trimmings 6

CME Cash Feeder Index $137.98 - $1.41 Coarse Grinds 27

• Today’s Cattle On Feed Report is NEGATIVE !!!!

• Mar. 1 On Feed was 109% (est. 108.2%) which is 11.715 million head and is 8.9% above the 5-year average. NE was up 10%; TX up 10% and KS were up 6% versus last year. This is the largest March on feed of the past 10 years. This is the 23 month of the past 25 months of the on feed being higher than the previous year. This is the largest monthly on feed number of the past consecutive 73 months

• Feb. Placements were 107% (est. 104.1%) which is 1.817 million head and is 12.8% higher than the 5-year average. The monthly placements continue to larger than the previous year for the 22nd month of the past 25 months. This is the largest February placement of the past 18 years. TX was up 14%; KS up 11% and NE up 4% versus a year ago. The weight breakdown of the placements: under 600# was up 3.2%; 600-699# up 1.6%; 700-799# up 9.6% and 800-899# up 26.3%; 900-999# up 21.0% and plus 1000# up 25.0%. For the first 2 months of 2018 the cattle placed exceed the cattle marketed by 352,000 head.

• Feb. Marketing was 102% (est. 101.2%) which is 1.675 million head and is 5.9% above the 5-year average. This is the largest February marketing of the past 6 years. KS up 3%; TX unchanged and NE down 2% compared to a year ago.

https://www.drovers.com/sites/default/files/inline-files/Pork%20Tracker%2032018.pdf




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• Cold Storage Report….was released on Thursday afternoon. The February Total Beef stocks were at 460.276 million pounds this is 8.3% lower than last month and 8.4% lower than a year ago

USDA Cattle On Feed Report Average Estimated Estimate VS Estimate VS USDA Estimate Range 3 Year Avg. 5 Year Avg. Actual #'s On Feed Mar 1 108.2 107.5 -109.2 + 09.0 % + 08.9% 109 Feb Gross Placements 104.1 100.3 – 108.8 + 10.0% + 12.8% 107 Feb Marketings 101.2 99.8 – 102.1 + 05.7% + 05.9% 102

The above estimates compiled by Bloomberg are in percentages versus year ago figures, on feed yards of 1,000 head capacity or more. The report was released on Friday 2:00 CT.

F.I. Hog Kill Daily/ wk totals Wholesale Pork Price Net Change Today 452K / 2.291M Cutout 185# $70.74 + $0.00 Week Ago 450K / 2.295M Primal Loin $72.64 + $0.91 Year Ago 416K / 2.191M Primal Ham $53.23 - $0.96 CME Hog Index $62.32 -$0.71 Primal Belly $99.30 - $0.02

National Cash Hog Wtd. Avg. $53.97 - 1.07

June Lean Hogs today easily made a new contract low and closed negative at today’s mid-range. Support is at $73.22 the March & Contract Low… $72.50 area. Resistance is at $76.00 area… $78.00 area… $80.15 the 200-DMA… $81.94 the 100-DMA… $84.10 the February High

CORN

Futures Contract

Net Change

Closing Price

Today's High

Today's Low

14- Day RSI

10-Day Moving

Avg.

50-Day Moving

Avg.

Contract High

Contract Low

30-Year High

30-Year Low

May 18 C 1' 2 377' 2s 378' 2 369' 2 45.50 3.81'7 3.74'2 4.31'6 3.53'6 8.38'0 1.49'2 Jul 18 C 1' 4 385' 6s 386' 2 377' 4 46.71 3.89'7 3.82'0 4.48'0 3.62'0 8.24'0 1.54'0

• The corn price followed the other grains in early trading to the downside. The rest of the session was small lot buying to erase a portion of their early losses.

• Exports trade for corn continues to run at a high pace out of the United States. Traditional buyers have increased their amounts. Some of the smaller countries have stepped up their pace.

• With a concern over South America corn production, world corn importers came to the United States so they can build inventory of corn in their country, just in case our corn production is smaller than normal. World supplies look high but remember a small glitch in world corn production and these excess supplies go away.

• China’s retaliation against the United States issuing tariffs on some of China’s exports to the United States has stayed away from our agriculture grain products, so far.

• Supporting the corn price is dryness in Argentina. Rainfall for the December thru March timeframe is the lowest seen in years. The forecast brings in more of the same.

Larry Glenn




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THE CLOSING BELL

May Corn had its lowest trade today since February 9th and closed positive with its highest close of the week. Support is at $3.74 the 50-DMA …$3.69 ¼ the March Low… $3.68 the 100-DMA… $3.64 ¼ the February Low… $3.53 ¾ the January & Contract Low. Resistance is at $3.79 the 200-DMA… $3.90 area… $3.95 ¼ the March High… $4.06 the August High

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

Futures Contract

Net Change Closing

Price

Today's High Today's

Low

14- Day RSI

10-Day Moving

Avg.

50-Day Moving

Avg. Contract

High Contract

Low 30-Year

High 30-Year

Low May 18 S -1' 4 1028' 2s 1034' 2 1009' 2 45.83 10.35'1 10.22'0 10.82'4 9.09'0 16.44'4 4.19'6 Jul 18 S -1' 4 1039' 2s 1045' 2 1020' 2 46.37 10.45'6 10.31'5 10.90'2 9.26'0 16.79'4 4.01'4 May 18 SM 9.90 377.9s 379.00 360.50 56.55 369.10 360.10 404.00 299.60 504.80 118.90 May 18 BO -0.46 31.42s 31.98 31.37 41.13 31.92 32.40 37.20 31.46 72.69 12.95

• Early session selling pushed the soybean futures into double-digit downside, but the soybeans recovered to trade positive and close only slightly negative

• The soybean meal also saw early downside, but had an impressive positive close to the upside today

• A combination of concerns that China would put tariffs on U.S. soybeans and weather reports and forecasts for Argentina moved the soybean futures today

• The weekly soybean export sales were 759.1 TMT for the old crop and 140.0 TMT for the new crop. The soybeans sales are below year to date by 7.3%

• Next Thursday is the Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting Reports at 11 am. • Bloomberg’s average trader’s estimate for the U.S. soybean acres is 90.9 million acres this is

800,000 above last year • The average estimate for the March 1 soybean stocks is 2.030 billion bushels this is 291 million

above a year ago. The largest March soybean stocks on record in the U.S.

Tom Leffler

May Soybeans traded mostly lower, made a new low for the move the lowest since February 12th and closed slightly negative. Support is at $10.10 the 100-DMA… $10.09 ¼ the March Low… $10.00 the 200-DMA… $9.79 ¼ the February Low. Resistance is at $10.35 area… $10.50 area… $10.70 area… $10.82 ½ the March & Contract High… $11.00 area…

May Soy Meal started lower today and shot to its highest trade of the past 7 sessions and closed positive with its highest close of the past 11 sessions. Support is at $370.00 area… $360.00 the 50-DMA… $358.00 the March Low… $343.30 the 100-DMA. Resistance is at $380.00 area… $390.00 area… $404.00 the March & Contract High… $410.00 area.

May Soy Oil traded mostly lower, made a new contract low and closed negative today. Support is at 31.37 the March &Contract Low… $30.50 area. Resistance is at 32.40 the 50-DMA… 33.50 the February High… 33.33 the 100-DMA




3/23/2018 of 10

THE CLOSING BELL

WHEAT

Futures Contract

Net Change

Closing Price

Today's High

Today's Low

14- Day RSI

10-Day Moving

Avg.

50-Day Moving

Avg. Contract

High Contract

Low 30-Year

High 30-Year

Low May 18 KW 8' 2 479' 2s 481' 2 464' 0 41.91 4.93'5 4.86'2 6.19'4 4.23'6 13.70'0 2.33'0 Jul 18 KW 8' 2 498' 2s 500' 2 482' 6 42.60 5.11'2 5.03'0 6.23'0 4.40'2 13.00'0 2.30'0 May 18 W 4' 4 460' 2s 461' 6 446' 4 42.75 4.68'5 4.66'6 6.09'6 4.23'6 13.49'4 2.33'2 Jul 18 W 4' 4 476' 4s 477' 6 463' 2 42.88 4.85'3 4.81'2 6.09'4 4.37'0 12.72'6 2.30'0

• The wheat price was soft to start the day session only to stage a rally that started at mid-session. The entire wheat complex closed on the plus side.

• Staring to hear minor wheat production problems around the world. The latest story comes out of India. India decided not to increase their wheat import taxes because of a possible need to import wheat. Weather is taking a toll on wheat yields. India wheat production estimated at 94 million metric tons compared to last year’s number of 98.5. A few analysts believe 91 to 91 million metric tons is a possibility.

• The IGC (International Grain Council) estimates world wheat production at 741 million metric tons. This is 17 million below last year or a 2.2% decline.

• The updated weather forecast turned drier today for the western section of our southern plains. The weather models moved the systems in the extended forecasts to the east.

Larry Glenn

May KC Wheat trading was mixed today and the close positive with the highest close of the week. Support is at $4.66 the 100-DMA… $4.58 ¼ the March Low… $4.50 area. Resistance is at $4.80 area… $4.86 the 200-DMA… $5.00 area… $5.15 area… $5.30 area… $5.48 ½ the March High

May Chicago Wheat today made a new low for the slide, traded mixed and closed positive with the highest close of the week. Support is at the $4.56 the 100-DMA… $4.46 ½ the March Low… $4.40 area. Resistance is at $4.67 the 50-DMA… $4.80 the 200-DMA… $5.00 area… $5.18 ½ the March High… $5.30 area.

OTHER MARKETS:

Future Contract Net Change

Closing Price

Today's High

Today's Low

Contract Net Change

Closing Price

Today's High

Today's Low

Dow Jones -424.69 23533.20 24108.47 23509.06

May 18 Cotton -0.32 81.83s 82.39 81.39 Jun 18 S&P -45.50 2597.80s 2658.50 2586.20

May 18 Oats -2' 4 226' 2s 229' 4 222' 4

Jun Dollar Index -0.440 89.033s 89.345 88.975

Apr 18 Ethanol -0.030 1.451s 1.481 1.448 Jun 18 T-Bond -0' 01 144' 23s 145' 13 144' 06

May 18 Crude 1.58 65.88s 66.00 64.11

Apr 18 Gold 22.50 1349.9s 1350.40 1328.90

May 18 Heat 0.0260 2.0210s 2.0277 1.9895




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THE CLOSING BELL

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICES VERSUS WEEK AGO and VERSUS A YEAR AGO

Today's Close WEEK AGO YEAR AGO 23-Mar-2018 16-Mar-18 NET CHANGE 23-Mar-17 NET CHANGE Apr Live Cattle 116.05 121.25 (5.20) 121.77 (5.72) Apr Feeder Cattle 136.10 140.20 (4.10) 135.35 0.75 Jun Lean Hogs 74.15 79.12 (4.97) 77.60 (3.45) May Corn 3.7725 3.8275 (0.0550) 3.5675 0.2050 Jul Corn 3.8575 3.9100 (0.0525) 3.6450 0.2125 Dec Corn 3.9925 4.0375 (0.0450) 3.8000 0.1925 May Soybeans 10.2825 10.4950 (0.2125) 9.9100 0.3725 Jul Soybeans 10.3925 10.6025 (0.2100) 10.0150 0.3775 Nov Soybeans 10.2650 10.4100 (0.1450) 9.9125 0.3525 May Soy Meal 377.90 372.90 5.00 279.40 98.50 May Soy Oil 31.42 31.98 (0.56) 33.22 (1.80) May KC Wheat 4.7925 4.9950 (0.2025) 4.2800 0.5125 Jul KC Wheat 4.9825 5.1650 (0.1825) 4.4075 0.5750 May CH Wheat 4.6025 4.6775 (0.0750) 4.2100 0.3925 May Cotton 81.83 82.85 (1.02) 77.27 4.56 May Crude Oil 65.88 62.41 3.47 47.70 18.18 May Heating Oil 2.0210 1.9172 0.1038 1.4970 0.5240 Jun Dollar Index 89.033 89.797 (0.764) 99.563 (10.530) DOW 23533 24965 (1432) 20656 2877

CURRENT MAP YEAR AGO MAP




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THE CLOSING BELL

Charts Reflect Combined Electronic & Day Sessions Dark Red Line is Trend Line // Green Line is 50-Day Moving Avg. // Red Line is 100-Day Moving Avg // Blue Line is Retracement

2018 APRIL LIVE CATTLE 2018 APRIL FEEDER CATTLE

2018 MAY CORN 2018 MAY SOYBEANS

2018 MAY KC WHEAT 2018 MAY CHICAGO WHEAT




3/23/2018 of 10

THE CLOSING BELL

NEW CROP CHARTS for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat & Cotton

Charts Reflect Combined Electronic & Day Sessions Dark Red Line is Trend Line // Red Line is 50-Day Moving Avg. // Blue Line is 100-Day Moving Avg

2018 DECEMBER CORN 2018 NOVEMBER SOYBEANS

2018 JULY KC WHEAT 2018 DECEMBER COTTON




3/23/2018 of 10

THE CLOSING BELL

the closing bell - leffler commodities

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