September 23, 2019

Transitions to renewable energy and sustainable prosperity in Lebanon

Lea KaiProject Manager

Climate Change projects UNDP/Ministry of Environment

Lebanon under Climate ChangeWhat to expect in 2030?

+1°CWarmer than pre-industrial levels

+3°CWarming by end of century

-49%Emission reduction by 2030

-100%Achieve carbon neutrality by 2030

85%of renewables by 2050

The world has only

12 yearsTo effect a complete transition in economy and society

IPC

C -

Spec

ial R

epo

rt o

n 1

.5°C

(2

01

8)

Projected changes in temperatures

Sou

rce

| A

dap

ted

fro

m E

SCW

A, 2

01

5

Reference Period (1986-2005) RCP4.5 (2046-2065) RCP8.5 (2046-2065)

RCP8.5 (2081-2100)Reference Period (1986-2005) RCP4.5 (2081-2100)

Projected changes in precipitations

Sou

rce

| A

dap

ted

fro

m E

SCW

A, 2

01

5

RCP4.5 (2046-2065) RCP8.5 (2046-2065)Reference Period (1986-2005)

RCP4.5 (2081-2100) RCP8.5 (2081-2100)Reference Period (1986-2005)

Climate change indices by 2080-2100

Sou

rce

| A

dap

ted

fro

m E

SCW

A, 2

01

5

Summer days Tmax>

35°C

Maximum length of dry

spell

Under moderate

scenario (RCP4.5)

Under worst case

scenario (RCP8.5)

+ 15 days + 43 days

+ 1 day + 6 days

Impact on Electricity

Increased temperature

Increased demand for cooling

Increased consumption for electricity

2040 2080

+3.8% +5.8%

Increased E demand for cooling

+1°C

+1.8%+ 2%

+2°C +5°C

+900 Billion USD

+34.8 Billion USD

Cost of additional E consumption USD 0.21 per kWh - recent cost of incremental increases in electricity generation (WB, 2008- adjusted to 2015)

300

10 13

470

213 7

22

110

47,200 177,900

62

29

5938 43

22

57

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Costs in 2020(million USD)

Increased cooling demand

Increased E consumption

Increased emissions

Increased climate change

The Challenge of Climate Migrants

Storms, sea level rise, water scarcity, droughts

Reduced agricultural output

Reduced earnings of farmers and workers in related industries

Internal migration

Reduced in per capita income on forced migrants (informal sector)

-45%

-3%

+9%

Potential number of internal migrants and their loss of income from climate-related impacts

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2020 2040 2080

Potential number of internal migrants

Lebanon Beirut Mount Lebanon

Northern Lebanon Bekaa Southern Lebanon

Nabatieh

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2020 2040 2080

Potential lost income for migrants (millions)

Lebanon Beirut Mount Lebanon

Northern Lebanon Bekaa Southern Lebanon

Nabatieh

The Government’s reaction

The Paris Agreement

Lebanon’s commitments

Cut CO2 emissions

Unconditional target

Conditional to finance, technical support and capacity building

2030

15%

30%

2015 Internal sectoral targets by 2030

Mitigation

Energy

Refurbishment, replacement and extension of conventional power generation capacities Fuel switch to natural gas

An unconditional 3%reduction in power demand through Energy Efficiencymeasures, increases to 10% conditional to support

An unconditional 15% increase in the share of Renewables in meeting heat and power demand, increases to 20% conditional to support

Transport

An unconditional 36%stabilization of the share of annual passenger-kilometers driven using public transport, increases to 48%conditional to support

A conditional 20% increase in the share of fuel-efficient vehicles in the fleet

Waste

Waste management through energy recovery, equivalent to avoiding emissions from landfilling at 1,000 tonnes per day

An unconditional recycling rate of 25%, increases to 30% conditional to support

An unconditional treatment of 51% of municipal wastewater, increases to 70%conditional to support

Forestry

An unconditional target of 20 million trees planted, increases to 26 million trees conditional to support

Improvement in the function of Lebanon’s forests as a sink

Baseline vs. Action

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Gg

CO

2-e

q

NDC reduction

BAU Conditional Unconditional

-10,000.00

-5,000.00

0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

NDC Unconditional

Unconditional total TARGET Emissions from energy

Emissions from transport Emissions from Ag

Emissions from LULUCF Emissions from waste

2015 NDC Process

Lebanon’s NDC was developed through a multi-ministerial participatory process in 2015, led by the Ministry of Environment

Lebanon's targets have been constructed using existing adopted ministerial strategies and plans, through which, Lebanon's NDC can be achieved in 2030

Participatory and transparent

processSectoral ministries

Cross-sectoral ministries and

institutions

Time constraints

Electricity Policy PaperNREAPNEEAP

Land Transport Policy

FEV NAMA

Solid Waste NAMA

National Water Sector Strategy

MoA StrategyNational

40 Million treesBiodiversity

Strategy

Key Elements of NDC

Implementation

Coordination

- NDC Committee

- Institutional arrangements

- Capacity-building

- Abide by international law

Strategy for NDC Implementation

- Defining and prioritizing policies

- Sectoral implementation

plans Mainstreaming

- NDC into upcoming national

policies

- SDGs, Gender into NDC and NDC

policies

Financial Strategy or Investment Plans for

NDC

- Costing of actions and measures in the

different policies

- Cost-benefit analysis for prioritizationFinance Mobilized to

Support NDC Implementation

- Access to financial resources for

implementation and transparency

Implemented Actions

- Actions that directly contribute to NDC implementation

- Concerns several sectors and cross-cutting elements

(finance)

Transparency to Monitor and Assess

Progress

- NDC progress on targets

- GHG emission trends

- Financial support

- Policies and measures

NDC Update

- Every 5 years- Needs to be

more ambitious

Challenges

The NDC

The opportunity to

plan ahead

Achievement in 2030

Identify sectoral and cross-cutting needs (financial, technical, regulatory, legal, institutional)

Prioritize needs

Draft roadmap for implementation – 2030 Roadmap / Partnership Plan

Build the institutional architecture for gaps and needs

Formulate project proposals to match funding

Formulate investment plans

Climate-proof CEDRE/Capital Investment Plan and Lebanon Economic Vision (McKinsey report) as a precedent

Repeat until achievement ministerial plans to reduce emissions, increase resilience and reach sustainable development

Co

nst

ant

Co

ord

inat

ion

Thank you

Climatechange.moe.gov.lb