LEARNING FROM GHANA’S INDC

LAICO Lake Victoria Hotel, Entebbe, Uganda

23-24 September 2015

DR EMMANUEL TACHIE OBENG

Climate Change Unit,

Ghana Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

TRAINING WORKSHOP ON INTENDED NATIONALLY

DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS (INDCs)

- ANGLOPHONE & LUSOPHONE COUNTRIES

Issues to cover in this presentation

1. Ghana’s national

circumstances

2. Technical analysis steps

3. INDC options from

analysis

4. Investment requirements

2

Ghana’s national circumstances - socio-economic aspects

3

Concept Note & National Agenda

EOI & Recruitment of Consultants

Stakeholder meetings

THE PROCESS OF GHANA’S INDC PREPARATION

02 05 04 03 06 09

INDC Kick-off Workshop

Brainstorming

07 05 07 08

Inception report

Mid-term report Final report

Core and Working Group Meetings

Core Group Reviews

National Processes - (Reviewed by Line Ministries, Carbinet Endorsement

and Disclosure)

Awareness Creation Promotiom Materials, Capacity Building

Consultation – Technical, Political & EMT,

2015

Technical Analysis steps

Analysis framework Adaptation contribution Mitigation contribution

Multi-sectoral teams RIPS, Geography Dept., IESS - Legon, EPA, Ministry of Health & Patience Damptey

FC, EC, EPA, Economics Dept., Legon, Zoomlion, MoFA, Mr. Yaw Osafo, Mr. Philip Acquah

Selection of sectors Based on adaptation needs, adaptation gaps, consistent with climate change policy

Major GHG emission sectors (historical emissions profile)

Methodology approaches

• Reviewed of existing national adaptation related documents.

• Multi-sector and cross-scale assessments. • Prioritization of adaptation options • Determine which option is unconditional

and conditional.

• Determine historical emissions (1990-2012) • Business as usual scenario (2010-2030) • Mitigations scenario (2010-2030) • Screen of mitigation actions • Assessment of GHG impacts and co-benefits • Determine which option is unconditional and

conditional .

Financial analysis Cost-benefit analysis

Institutional arrangement Linkage with existing national climate change institutional arrangement

Monitoring and Evaluation Linkage with existing development M & E structures (NDPC )

Working platform Series of informal technical review and drafting meetings, 3 resident writing meetings 5

Climate Change vulnerability spread in Ghana

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The impacts of climate change is real in Ghana

Threatens “energy security”

No more option to rely Akosombo

hydroelectric dam

Lives and properties are at risk

3rdJune, 2015 Accra floods

Planning of national outdoor

events needs a second look

6th March, Parade

Coastal erosion

Threatens 12million Ghanaians

living at the560km coastline

Threats to food security

Profitable cocoa production is

unlikely in the future if action is not

taken immediately.

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Ghana greenhouse gas emissions profile Sectors & Sub-sectors

Emissions MtCO2e

% Change

1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 1990-2011 2000-2011 2011-2012

1. Energy 3.5 5.5 11.3 11.6 13.5 233.0 110.3 15.9

• Stationery energy combustion

(e.g. Thermal electricity plants)

2.0 2.7 6.5 6.2 7.0 206.5 127.8 13.3

• Transport (e.g. road transport) 1.5 2.8 4.8 5.4 6.5 268.3 92.5 19.4

• Fugitive emission

(e.g. Unintended emissions from gas transmission

from Jubilee fields to Atuabo)

0.0 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.002 50.0 -81.2 156.5

2. Industrial Process & Product Use 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.47 -46.0 -43.2 6.5

3. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use

(AFOLU)

8.6 7.7 14.7 14.0 15.2 240.6 94.0 1.6

• Livestock 1.7 2.20 2.8 16.5 3.0 194.2 91.9 12.0

• Land -3.0 -4.00 1.9 14.08 1.8 63.6 82.5 7.7

• Aggregated and Non-CO2 emissions (e.g. rice

cultivation, fertilization use, biomass burning) 9.9 9.52 10.0

2.8

10.3

62.9 27.4 8.9

4. Waste 1.3 2.3 4.2 1.3 4.52 -143.3 -132.7 40.3

Total emissions (excluding AFOLU) 5.6 8.6 15.8 10.0 18.5 0.6 4.8 3.2

Total net emissions (including AFOLU) 14.2 16.3 30.4 30.6 33.7 115.1 87.5 10.0

Emission levels are low but the potential to grow is high looking at the current economic development trajectory 8

The long-term goal of Ghana’s adaptation is to increase climate resilience and decrease vulnerability for enhanced sustainable development. Informed by:

• Good governance and inter-sectoral coordination,

• Capacity-building, role of science, technology and innovation,

• Adequate finance from both domestic sources and international cooperation,

• Outreach by informing, communicating and educating the citizenry and

• Adhering to accountable monitoring and reporting.

Technical options from the technical analysis

Adaptation Option

Adaptation – Strategic Focus

The actions to be undertaken from 2020 to 2030 towards Ghana’s INDC are in the following 3 strategic areas:

• Sustainable Land Use, • Climate Resilient Strategic Infrastructure and • Equitable Social Development.

Special focus on:

• Energy security

• Food security

• Coastal Resource Management

• Climate Proof Infrastructure (road, dams, telecommunication, electricity and housing)

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• The goals Adaptation options fall within 12 broad categories and

are informed by specific options as directly implementable

activities. Attaining the INDC outputs will depend on 2 requirements.

1. Conditional (coming with external support other than government to enable

at least 50% of the specific options to be implemented and

2. Unconditional (coming without external support and all specific options

implemented using national budget and bilateral support

Goal of Adaptation Options

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12

Sector Strategic area INDC Policy Actions No of

Programme

of Actions Agriculture and food

security

Sustainable land use Agriculture resilience building in

climate vulnerable landscapes

3

Sustainable forest

resource management

Value addition-based utilization

of forest resources

2

Resilient

Infrastructure in built

environment

Climate resilient

strategic

infrastructure

City-wide resilient

infrastructure planning

1

Early warning and disaster

prevention

1

Climate change and

health

Equitable social

development

Managing climate-induced

health risk

2

Water resources Integrated water resources

management

1

Gender and the

vulnerable

Resilience for Gender and the

Vulnerable

1

Some of the priority adaptation policy actions will yield positive synergies with mitigation policy actions.

Headline GHG emission reduction target

• Ghana’s emission reduction goal is to unconditionally lower its greenhouse gas emissions by 15% relative to a business as usual (BAU) scenario of 73.95 MtCO2e by 2030 in line with its medium-term development agenda and the anticipated long-term socio-economic transformational plan (40 year plan).

• An additional 30% emission reduction is attainable, if international support

covering the full cost of implementation (finance, technology transfer, capacity building) is made available to Ghana, which translates to a total emission reduction of 45% below BAU emission levels by 2030.

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Mitigation Option

GHG Emissions Reduction Trajectory

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Sectors and Actions to attain emission reduction goal

Mitigation actions were selected based on the following key factors.

1. Government is committed (policy and financial wise) to get the action implemented.

Aligned with government priorities;

2. There is enough baseline data and clear set target that can be used for the emission modeling and assessment of co-benefits;

3. It is possible to estimate financial needs (reasonable budget, pragmatic) with clear sources of funding;

4. It is possible to estimate sustainable development benefits;

5. Technology and capacity are available to be deployed in the Ghanaian market;

6. Mitigation actions are part of the list of 55 NAMAs;

7. Tools exist for emission modeling.

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Sector Sub-sector Actions Investment

requirement

(million $)

Energy Renewable

energy

1. Increase small-medium hydro installed capacity up to

150-300MW

2. Attain utility scale wind power up to 50-150MW

3. Attain utility scale solar electricity up to 150-250MW

4. Establish solar 55 mini-grids with an average capacity

of 100kW which translates to 10MW

5. Increase solar lantern replacement in rural non-

electrified household to 2 million.

6. Scale up the 200,000 solar home systems for lighting

in urban and selected non-electrified rural households.

7. Scale up adoption of LPG use from 5.5% to 30% peri-

urban and rural households up to 2030

8. Scale up access and adoption of 2 million improve

cook stove up to 2030

2,565.2

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Sector Sub-sector Actions Investment

requirement

(million $)

Transport Road and rail Expansion of inter and intra city mass

transportation modes (Rail and bus transit system)

in 4 cities

1,201

Forestry

(REDD+)

Afforestation

Cocoa REDD+

Wildfire

Management

1. Double 10,000ha annual

reforestation/afforestation of degraded lands

translating to 20,000ha on annual basis.

2. Support enhancement of forest carbon stocks

through 5,000ha per annum enrichment

planting.

3. Result-based emission reduction in cocoa

landscape (Cocoa REDD+ programme

4. Wildfire management in the Transition and

Savanna dry lands in Ghana

4,953

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Sector Sub-sector Actions Investment

requirement

(million $)

Waste Biogas in

schools

Waste to

energy

Waste to

compost

1. Improve effectiveness of urban solid collection

from 70% to 90% by 2030 and disposed all to an

engineered landfills for phase-out methane

recovery from 40% in 2025 to 65% by 2030.

2. Scale up 200 institutional biogas in senior

high schools and prisons nation wide

3. Double the current waste to compost installed

capacity of 180,000tonne/annum by 2030

79.85

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Means of Implementation - Investment requirement

Ghana is expected to mobilize nearly USD 22.6 billion investment from both domestic and international public and private sources

USD 10.11 billion (representing 45 % of the total investment) is

needed for mitigation USD 12.42 billion is needed for adaptation. Ghana will seek to mobilize USD 6 billion (28.3% of total investment)

– Domestic Source USD 16 billion will come from international support.

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No Sources Indicative Amounts ($) (Billion)

% of total investment

Domestic sources

1 National Budget 1.4 6.2

2 Corporate Social Responsibility 1.7 7.5

3 Commercial facilities 3.2 14.2

International sources

1 Green climate fund 5.0 22.1

2 Other multilateral fund funds 1.1 4.9

3 Bilateral agreements 2.8 12.4

4 Private capital investment 3.8 16.8

5 International carbon market 3.6 15.9

Total 22.6 100

Sources of finance

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Technology and Capacity needs

Ghana Requires Requisite technology and know-how and Favourable stimulate innovation, Capability development to fully implement its iNDC.

In this regard, Ghana will be looking for international partnership to take advantage of the opportunities for technology development and transfers and continuous up-skilling especially in the priority INDC sectors.

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Ghana recognizes MRV system forms an important part to ensuring the successful delivery Ghana’s MRV system is an integral part of the existing national

development monitoring and evaluation structures. Deploy to track progress towards achieving INDC goals Attain Emission reduction and adaptation goals Any modifications in the priority policy actions Incorporate in a broad sector based stakeholder support with National

Development Planning Commission (NDPC) for periodically information review through Annual Progress Report (APR).

Monitoring Report and Verification (MRV)

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5. Fairness and Ambition

Ghana considers its INDC to be fair and ambitious for 4 main reasons:

Formal emission reduction obligation to control the growth of its GHG emissions, despite emission level of 0.1% of global GHG emissions in 2012.

With Ghana’s GHG emissions per capita of 1.3tCO2e, with full implementation of

both unconditional and conditional mitigation contribution will lead to reduce per capita emissions to 0.8 tCO2e by 2030.

Urgent development needs and level risk climate change pose to the strategic

sectors of its economy, Ghana must have focused on reducing the risk of climate change impacts.

Current GDP per capita of $1,461, Ghana considers its contribution as more than fair,

taking into account that its current capacity to mobilize and invest in appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures in order to achieve it INDC goals.

1. Initial Financial Challenges 2. Pressure from external consultants 3. Pressure from development partners 4. Broad-based consultation 5. Awareness Creation Campaign and INDC Promotion Materials 6. Technical Capacity 7. Financial analysis 8. Time constraints

Challenges

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Thank you

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