leading and learning through crisis - with athletic pursuits of excellence alone ... seoc’s...

This thesis is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Management Studies of the

University of Canberra, by Shane Fudge (u3031826)

July 10, 2012

Leading and Learning through Crisis

A nonlinear dynamical systems approach to decision-making in

sport event organizations

Mr. Shane Fudge

4/11/2012

ii

Abstract:

The growth of the sports event industry has risen dramatically over the last 40 years. These

types of events have increased in size and scope in all areas of project management; budget,

infrastructure design and cost, human resources, time for planning, number of participants, and

impact on their host communities. As these events have grown in cost and resources required to

plan them, the need to no longer have an ad hoc style of management has increased as well.

Sports event management of large-scale project sizes now requires professional management

teams put in place to oversee the project anywhere from ten to five years before the date of the

actual competition. At this level these teams now include a high number of specially trained

sports managers, individuals who have some sort of direct experience in the management and

delivery of the unique aspects of a sport product such as a large event atmosphere.

As these events have increased along these described lines, a natural phenomenon has occurred,

namely their complexity has increased. Specifically, the complexity of the management systems

designed for each one of these projects has increased with time. Each sports event of a large-

scale needs to be unique, and differentiate itself from its counter-parts. This increases the

amount of unique systems complexity to be found in each project’s management design. The

problem posited by this thesis, and supported throughout related literature, is that as a systems

complexity increases, the possibility of it experiencing a crisis increases as well.

When managers or leaders find themselves facing a crisis, they are facing a worst-case-scenario.

Traditional management literature (both disaster and risk management) has shown how most

organizations prepare some sort of contingency planning efforts for worst-case-scenarios.

However, upon further detailed review of literature, there are multiple incidents every year

where a major organization experiences a crisis which fundamental alters their structure and

culture negatively.

This is also true of Sports Event Management efforts. A historical review of major events since

the 1970s uncovers a high rate of incidents occurring that can be classified as crises. However,

despite increasing the amount of time and money spent on crisis management and mitigation

each year, Sport Event Organizing Committees (SEOC) seem either unable or unprepared to

prevent several types of crises from occurring. The indication is that the increase in the

complexity of the management systems has outdistanced the management and leadership

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techniques of the SEOC’s responsible for their respective events when the situation progresses

too far.

Therefore, this thesis posits that current crisis management techniques designed for sports event

management are ineffective and/or ill-suited to deal with worst-case-scenarios. The SEOC finds

itself at times either unable to process the complexity of their task environment, or unaware of

how the complexity of the events unfolding around them can progress from a relatively minor

risk, to a real crisis. This thesis addresses the issue of how to develop an improved Crisis

Management theory of how SEOC leadership groups perceive crises borne from worst-case-

scenarios.

This is an important problem to address, because sports event management no longer concerns

itself with athletic pursuits of excellence alone. Major-sized events have grown from budgets

encompassing thousands, to potential billions of dollars. Their regularity has become intrinsic to

the local economy’s annual performance. A poorly attended or organized event makes a

negative impact felt by the non-sporting community as well. The largest sports events have an

international media attention on them, and negative views of how that nation is not only

performing but hosting, can affect the billion-dollar tourism industry of any host nation.

Also, poorly planned and constructed sports infrastructure can lead to more money being wasted,

rather than a legacy fund designed to enhance sporting prowess for the future. In short, these

projects have major socio-economic and socio-cultural impacts on their larger communities.

Improper leadership and management of these events is no longer tolerated by their various

stakeholders.

This thesis took the approach of an Action Science oriented Participatory Action Research

(PAR) project, in that the researcher was an involved member of the participant community.

This was done to gain the most in-depth, qualitative data possible. SEOC’s are tightly-knit

teams and their leadership is made up of many interrelated departments. Getting inside their

workings and structure at the ground level was required to fully understand the attitudes and

behaviours of each individual leader when faced with a crisis management situation.

The Collaborative Inquiry methodology approach was taken, because it allows for research with

rather than on people. A SEOC was found which fit all of the research requirements; they were

iv

in charge of a major-sized sports event, possessed a clearly identified leadership group, and were

willing to collaboratively engage the researcher in trying to answer the questions related to how

do you improve crisis management techniques. Also, the complexity of their organization’s

tasks and responsibilities had grown expansively over the last decade.

The results from this approach were the discovery that a theory of crisis management that

encourages the usefulness of worst-case-scenario planning can benefit sports event managers.

Collaborative efforts to implement a worst-case-scenario planning method not only exposes and

elevates individuals perception of the complexity of their tasks, it increases their awareness of

the systems reliance they have in the organization, and increased their awareness of how

important teamwork was in worst-case-scenarios. There was an increased amount of self-

efficacy after the methodology was implemented due to the increased ability of the team to share

knowledge and understanding of how to identify potential crises.

This is important to understand because it uncovered that some individuals in a team do not

understand what a crisis is. They also did not know how to recognize a potential crisis situation,

and they believed in the pre-existing systems to properly deal with a worst-case-scenario despite

not fully knowing what one was or what their role would be during such an occurrence. Also of

importance was the discovery of a cognitive dissonance element in certain elements of the

SEOC.

There was a gap between the ability of certain leader’s attitude towards a crisis, and their ability

to actually act appropriately towards its occurrence. As the methodology progressed this gap’s

significance increased as the teamwork exercises demanded more and more cohesion in the

efforts of defining and clarifying what was or wasn’t a crisis and how to mitigate it. This result

is significant to know for application, because if a human resources leadership training module

can be designed in the future along this paradigm, it could uncover which members of a

leadership group are going to be the least useful in a real crisis situation. The evidence suggest

that the greater the dissonance in their ability to perceive a potential crisis, the less likely they

will be effective crisis managers when the time comes.

The following chapters will explain in detail how this thesis went about uncovering the evidence

outlined above. The relevant literature and theoretical concepts will be outlined in the immediate

v

chapters. The justification and application of the methodology will follow and then an in-depth

analysis and discussion of the qualitative data will be found in the preceding chapters. Finally, a

conclusion of the major results and how the research objectives were met, as well as the

limitations and direction for future research will be provided.

viii

Acknowledgements:

I would like to acknowledge the support and guidance of my supervisory panel, Dr. Doug

Davies, and Dr. Mark Turner, whose advice and expertise made this document possible.

I would like to acknowledge the support and efforts of the Participants I worked with, without

their desire to really make something happen we would never have gotten off the ground. They

put on a spectacular event, made successful by their professionalism, determination, and hard-

work. I would like to acknowledge that while the subject of this study was to examine why

things go wrong, this group did an incredible job managing their event and leading their people.

Their efforts to engage in this study with rigour and zeal were what made the results so satisfying

for me. Also, a special thank you to Ian, and Tony, for making everything possible.

I would also like to acknowledge my wife Danielle, without her support I would never have been

able to finish or even start my thesis.

Lastly I would like to acknowledge my family, especially my mother Anita, who always believed

I was capable of doing something like this someday.

x

Table of Contents

Abstract: .......................................................................................................................................... ii

Acknowledgements: ................................................................................................................. viii

Index of Figures: .......................................................................................................................... xvi

Index of Tables: ........................................................................................................................... xvi

Index of Appendices: ................................................................................................................... xvi

Abbreviations for Important Terms: ...................................................................................... xviii

1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1

1.1 Introduction to Sport Event Management: ....................................................................... 1

1.1.1 Background/Rationale for Study: ............................................................................. 4

1.1.2 Statement of Problem:............................................................................................... 7

1.1.3 Purpose of Study: ...................................................................................................... 9

1.2 Aim of Research: ............................................................................................................ 10

1.3 Research Objectives: ...................................................................................................... 13

1.4 Research Questions: ....................................................................................................... 13

1.4.1 Justification/Gaps Present in Other Research: ........................................................ 14

1.5 Summary: ....................................................................................................................... 15

1.6 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 15

2 Literature Review Part I ........................................................................................................ 17

2.1 Introduction: ................................................................................................................... 17

2.1.1 Sport Event Management:....................................................................................... 19

2.1.1.1 Sports Event Typology: ....................................................................................... 21

2.2 Risk Management:.......................................................................................................... 23

2.2.1 Crisis Management/Leadership: ............................................................................. 26

2.2.1.1 Organizational Crisis vs. Emergency: ................................................................. 28

2.2.1.2 Crisis Anticipation Systems vs. Emergency Response Systems: ........................ 30

2.2.1.3 Uncertainty, Threat, Urgency: ............................................................................. 34

2.2.2 Worst-Case Scenarios: ............................................................................................ 36

2.2.2.1 Low/high, high/low probability and impact matrices: ........................................ 39

2.2.3 Scenario Planning: .................................................................................................. 45

2.3 Leadership: ..................................................................................................................... 47

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2.3.1 Transformational Leadership: ................................................................................. 51

2.3.2 Self-Directed Leadership: ....................................................................................... 53

2.3.3 Strategic Approach to the Necessity for Change: ................................................... 55

2.3.4 Self-Efficacy: .......................................................................................................... 57

2.3.5 Emotional Intelligence: ........................................................................................... 59

2.3.5.1 The Mixed Model ................................................................................................ 60

2.3.6 Personality and Attitudes ........................................................................................ 61

2.3.6.1 Personality: .......................................................................................................... 61

2.3.6.2 Attitudes: ............................................................................................................. 63

2.3.7 Summary: ................................................................................................................ 65

3 Literature Review Part II ....................................................................................................... 67

3.1 Introduction: ................................................................................................................... 67

3.2 Complexity Theory: ....................................................................................................... 67

3.2.1 Complex Adaptive Systems: ................................................................................... 69

3.2.2 Perceptions of Complex Adaptive Systems: ........................................................... 72

3.2.3 Organizational Complexity: .................................................................................... 74

3.3 Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Theory: ......................................................................... 75

3.4 Chaos Theory: ................................................................................................................ 77

3.4.1 Edge of Chaos Phenomenon: .................................................................................. 79

3.4.1.1 Bifurcations: ........................................................................................................ 81

3.4.1.1.1 Bifurcations and Learning Opportunities: ..................................................... 82

3.4.1.2 Strange Attractors:............................................................................................... 83

3.4.1.2.1 Strange Attractor States and Crisis: ............................................................... 85

3.4.2 Emergence and Self-Organising: ............................................................................ 86

3.4.2.1 The Psychology of Chaos: .................................................................................. 88

3.4.2.2 Learning opportunities vs. destructive events: .................................................... 89

3.4.2.3 Perceptions of Chaos: .......................................................................................... 90

3.4.2.4 Chaos and Related Learning Behaviours: ........................................................... 91

3.5 Organizational Culture: .................................................................................................. 93

3.5.1 Resilience building and shattering – Impacts on Individual Leaders: .................... 94

3.5.2 Capacity building – developing individuals as leaders: .......................................... 97

xii

3.5.2.1 Building the Learning Organization:................................................................... 99

3.5.3 Teams: ................................................................................................................... 102

3.5.3.1 Why Teams? Collective efforts vs. Personality clashes: .................................. 103

3.6 Cognitive Dissonance:.................................................................................................. 106

3.6.1 Cognitive blockers and crisis signifiers: ............................................................... 108

3.7 Summary: ..................................................................................................................... 109

4 Methodology and Methods .................................................................................................. 111

4.1 Introduction: ................................................................................................................. 111

4.2 Epistemology:............................................................................................................... 111

4.2.1 Linking epistemology with theoretical perspective: ............................................. 112

4.3 Methodology: ............................................................................................................... 113

4.3.1 Action Science: Validity and Justification ............................................................ 114

4.4 Methodology and Objectives: ...................................................................................... 115

4.5 Collaborative Inquiry: Validity and Justification ......................................................... 116

4.5.1 Double Loop Learning: ......................................................................................... 119

4.5.1.1 Assumptions: ..................................................................................................... 121

4.5.2 Design: .................................................................................................................. 121

4.5.3 Population: ............................................................................................................ 122

4.6 Methods: ....................................................................................................................... 124

4.6.1 Interviews:............................................................................................................. 125

4.6.2 Facilitated Work Groups: ...................................................................................... 126

4.6.3 Field Observations: ............................................................................................... 131

4.6.3.1 Data Analysis: ................................................................................................... 134

4.6.3.2 NVIVO Software: ............................................................................................. 134

4.6.3.2.1 Coding: ........................................................................................................ 134

4.6.3.2.2 Thematic Analysis: ...................................................................................... 135

4.6.3.3 Ethical Considerations: ..................................................................................... 135

4.6.3.4 Limitations: ....................................................................................................... 135

4.7 Summary: ..................................................................................................................... 136

5 Interviews: Results and Discussion of Method ................................................................... 139

5.1 Introduction to Interview Data Results and Discussion: .............................................. 139

xiii

5.1.1 Crisis Management Findings: ............................................................................... 140

5.1.2 Organizational Complexity Findings: ................................................................... 149

5.1.3 Individuals and the Learning Organization - Findings: ........................................ 155

5.1.4 Leadership Findings: ............................................................................................. 160

5.1.5 Comprehending the Likelihood of Crises: Expression of cognitive dissonance: . 167

5.2 Sport Event Management Implications: ....................................................................... 170

5.3 Sport Event Management Conclusions: ....................................................................... 174

5.4 Summary: ..................................................................................................................... 175

6 Facilitated Work Group and Field Observations: Results and Discussion of Methods ...... 177

6.1 Introduction: ................................................................................................................. 177

6.2 Facilitated Work Group - Indicators of Cognitive Skill Development: ....................... 178

6.2.1 Description of Worst-Case-Scenario # 1: ............................................................. 178

6.2.2 Analysis of Worst-Case-Scenario #1: ................................................................... 179

6.2.3 Description of Worst-Case-Scenario #2: .............................................................. 181
















6.3 Field Observations – Introduction: ............................................................................... 200

6.4 Findings Related to Leadership - ‘Games Time’ Leadership Behaviour: .................... 201

xiv

6.4.1 Emotional Intelligence: ......................................................................................... 204

6.4.2 Vision: ................................................................................................................... 206

6.4.3 Trust: ..................................................................................................................... 208

6.4.4 Self- efficacy: ........................................................................................................ 210

6.5 Communication and Decision-Making Findings: ........................................................ 212

6.5.1.1 Information Silo Effect: .................................................................................... 213

6.6 Findings Related to Complexity: ................................................................................. 215

6.6.1 Complexity and Attitudes: .................................................................................... 216

6.6.1.1 Positive Coding Results: ................................................................................... 217

6.6.1.2 Negative Coding Results: .................................................................................. 218

6.6.2 Complexity and Cognitive Dissonance:................................................................ 219

6.6.2.1 Cognition: .......................................................................................................... 220

6.6.2.2 Cognitive Dissonance:....................................................................................... 221

6.7 Sport Event Management Implications: ....................................................................... 223

6.8 Sport Event Management Conclusions: ....................................................................... 225

6.9 Summary: ..................................................................................................................... 229

7 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 233

7.1 Introduction: ................................................................................................................. 233

7.2 Conclusions: ................................................................................................................. 233

7.3 Research Question – Initial Conclusions: .................................................................... 235

7.4 Research Gap and Contribution: .................................................................................. 236

7.5 Key Findings and Conclusions:.................................................................................... 236

7.5.1 Recommendations and Limitations: ..................................................................... 243

7.5.1.1 Researcher Reflexivity ...................................................................................... 246

7.5.2 Implications for Further Research: ....................................................................... 247

8 Appendices .......................................................................................................................... 251

Appendix 1 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #1: Water Quality Contamination

Issue .............................................................................................................................. 251

Appendix 2 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #2: Fatality of a Person at Event

during ‘Games Time’ ................................................................................................... 253

Appendix 3 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #3: Transport System Failure - first

attempt .......................................................................................................................... 255

xv

Appendix 4 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #4: Collapse of Registration System

...................................................................................................................................... 257

Appendix 5 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #5: Workforce Uniforms Not

Delivered ...................................................................................................................... 259

Appendix 6 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #6: Main Entertainment Backs Out

...................................................................................................................................... 261

Appendix 7 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #7: Failure of Mass Transport System

– second attempt ........................................................................................................... 263

Appendix 8 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #8: Withdrawal of a Sport from the

Event............................................................................................................................. 265

Appendix 9 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #9: Bio-Hazard Outbreaks at Event

...................................................................................................................................... 267

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 2689

xvi

Index of Figures:

Figure 1 Interaction’s within a Complex Adaptive System ........................................................................................... 8

Figure 2 Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................................................ 11

Figure 3 Interactions of Theory via Example as a Complex Adaptive System ............................................................ 12

Figure 4 Compare and Contrast Diagram of Proactive vs. Reactive Decision Making System Models ..................... 33 Figure 5 Zoomed in View of Potential Nonlinearity Progressions of Chaos Event: Significance and Directions of

Impacts ........................................................................................................................................................................ 73

Figure 6 Linear Progression of Organizational Crisis: Low levels of Nonlinearity present ...................................... 74

Figure 7 Edge of Chaos affecting contingency efforts ................................................................................................. 83

Figure 8 3-D Image of Basin Effect of Strange Attractor State after Bifurcation ......................................................... 86

Figure 9 Venn diagram of Edge of Chaos Phenomenon: Areas of Opportunistic Learning .......................................... 92

Figure 10 Diagrammatical Representation of Collaborative Inquiry Methodology ................................................... 120 Figure 11 Nonlinear vs. Linear Paradigms of Decision Making Example: Comparison of Energy Levels by

Direction .................................................................................................................................................................... 156

Index of Tables: Table 1 Summary of Theories and relation to conceptual framework......................................................................... 18

Table 2 Likelihood of Risks Scale 1-5 (Standards Australia, AS/NSZ 4360, 2004) ..................................................... 37

Table 3 Consequences of Risks Scale 1-5 (Standards Australia, AS/NSZ 4360, 2004) ............................................... 42

Table 4 Risk Level Ratings Scale (Australia Standards, AS/NSZ 4360, 2004) ............................................................ 43

Table 5 Risk Analysis Matrix Scale ............................................................................................................................. 44

Table 6 Alignment of Research Question with Method ............................................................................................. 125

Table 7 FWG Primary Observations Checklist ............................................................................................................ 129

Table 8 FWG Secondary Observations Checklist ........................................................................................................ 131

Table 9 Primary and Secondary Themes of Findings ................................................................................................ 139

Table 11 Observations and Conclusions of Emotional Intelligence findings from Field Observations Data ........... 205

Table 12 Four features of an organization’s Vision .................................................................................................. 207

Table 10 Positive and Negative Coding Themes of perception of Complexity .......................................................... 216

Index of Appendices:

Appendix 1 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #1: Water Quality Contamination Issue ...................................... 251

Appendix 2 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #2: Fatality of a Person at Event during ‘Games Time’ ............. 253

Appendix 3 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #3: Transport System Failure - first attempt ............................... 255

Appendix 4 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #4: Collapse of Registration System ............................................ 257

Appendix 5 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #5: Workforce Uniforms Not Delivered ...................................... 259

Appendix 6 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #6: Main Entertainment Backs Out ............................................. 261

Appendix 7 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #7: Failure of Mass Transport System – second attempt ............ 263

Appendix 8 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #8: Withdrawal of a Sport from the Event ................................... 265

Appendix 9 Crisis Anticipation System, Scenario #9: Bio-Hazard Outbreaks at Event ............................................ 267

xviii

Abbreviations for Important Terms:

CM & RM – Crisis Management & Risk Management

SEOC – Sport Event Organising Committee

Leadership Core – key members of leadership team that are responsible for large component

parts of the event

ORG-CRIS – an organizational crises or crisis situation/event

EQ – the state known as Equilibrium

DEQ – the state known as Disequilibrium

FWG – Facilitated Work Group

NLDS Theory – Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Theory

CAS – Complex Adaptive System

WCS – Worst-Case-Scenarios

EoC – “Edge of Chaos” phenomenon encountered when equilibrium nears disruption

EI - Emotional Intelligence

LP/HI – low probability/high impact scenarios

HP/LI – high probability/low impact scenarios

OC – Organizational Culture

CRASYS – Crisis anticipation system

SEF – Sports event familiar type participant group member

SEU – sports event unfamiliar type participant group member

NMDC Model – Nonlinear Multi-Directional Cascading Model

leading and learning through crisis - with athletic pursuits of excellence alone ... seoc’s...

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