laura gallardo climate and health in chile what to explore
TRANSCRIPT
Contents• Observed changes in Chile; Projections and uncertainties
(R. Garreaud)
• Health and climate as seen globally• What would I/we suggest?
– Focus on SLCFs, urbanization and aging population
– Improve statistics and observations/measurements…using remote sensing?
• Two invitations– CR2 launching!– Natal, Brazil, 2014
CR2-Health Hub 2
CR2-Health Hub 3
• Changing patterns of disease
• Extreme climatic events, and population growth and migration.
• Vector-borne diseases will expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly people, will increase because of heatwaves
• The indirect effects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme climatic events are likely to have the biggest effect on global health.
“Climate change has been responsible for 5·5 million disability adjusted life years (DALYs) lost in 2000”
«Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century» Costello et al, 2009
«Air pollution from above»
CR2-Health Hub 4
NASA's Earth Observatory describes: "Dark brown areas have more premature deaths than light brown areas. Blue areas have experienced an improvement in air quality relative to 1850 and a decline in premature deaths."
Not that easy for Chile!
Escribano et al, 2013
Variability, projections and uncertainty for Chile
CR2-Health Hub 5
IPCC, 2013
…i.e., Central Chile…drier and warmer…particularly, warming land and cooling ocean
More variability and extremes? How will regional climate change over decadal time scales?
M. Rojas (MAPS), 2013
«Boundary conditions/drivers» in a changing climate
CR2-Health Hub 6
Chile is a highly urbanized country, with increasing wealth and improved HDI but extremely segregated
Molina et al, 2007
UN, 2012
Human Development Index
(PNUD, 2011)
Income distribution
(CASEN, 2006)
CO/NOx molar ratio
Gallardo et al, 2011 (AE)
Socio-economic gradients… different emissions, different exposures …
Air pollution occurs under a changing climate, and its impacts are amplified by inequity(WHO, 2005)
Altogether now
CR2-Health Hub 8
FOCUS ON SHORT-LIVED CLIMATE FORCERS (SLCFs)…Black carbon, ozone, methane…, which in addition to radiative forcers, are air pollutants and pollutant precursors
T. C. Bond, 2013
My summary for Chile• We have a society of aging individuals, living in growing cities, exposed to
multiple «health stressors».• Health stressors are amplified by inequity and likely by «climate change»
and natural variability• We still see/handle air pollution and climate change as separated issues…
they are not!• We need an improved understanding of health stressors, and of air
pollution in a changing climate…– Mass concentrations of pollutants vs. standard health statistics require
improvements and ancilliary process-oriented measurements (super sites, validated remote sensing, etc.)
– Air quality standards provide a framework but they are useless without following emission standards, and improved observations and adequate enforcement
• We need more people addressing these issued under integrative paradigms…go for win-win, focus on SLCFs
CR2-Health Hub 9
Invitations
CR2-Health Hub 10
Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia CONICYT/FONDAP/15110009
¡[email protected]://www.cr2.cl/
CR2-Health Hub 11
References
• Costello, M. Abbas, A. Allen et al.Managing the health effects of climate change. Lancet, 373 (2009), pp. 1693–1733
• Escribano, J., Gallardo, L., Rondanelli, R. and Choi, Y-S. Satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth over a subtropical urban area: the role of stratification and surface reflectance. Submitted to Aerosol and Air Quality Research.
• Gallardo, L., Escribano, J., Dawidowski, L., Rojas, N. J., Andrade, M. F, and Osses, M., 2011. Evaluation of vehicle emission inventories for carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides for Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Santiago, and São Paulo. Atmospheric Environment 47, 12-19.
• Shindell, D., J. C. I. Kuylenstierna, E. Vignati, R. van Dingenen, M. Amann, Z. Klimont, S. C. Anenberg, N. Muller, G. Janssens, Maenhout, F. Raes, J. Schwartz, G. Faluvegi, L. Pozzoli, K. Kupiainen, L. Höglund-Isaksson, L. Emberson, D. Streets, V. Ramanathan,K. Hicks, N. T. K. Oanh, G. Milly, M. Williams, V. Demkine, and D. Fowler (2012), Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security, Science, 335 (6065), 183-189, doi: 10.1126/science.1210026.
• Zhu, T., Parrish, D., Gauss, M., Doherty, S., Lawrence, M., Gallardo, L., Kanakidou, M., Konare and Cathy Liuosse. The Impacts of Megacities on Air Quality and Climate Change: An IGAC Perspective. IGAC/WMO book/report. 205 WMO/IGAC, ISBN: 978-0-9882867-0-2, 309 pp. September 2012
CR2-Health Hub 12