LATIN AMERICA AND GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS

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1779.7

1336

834.5

604.4

538.4

490.5

365.1

269.9

237

201.9

179.8

165.8

144.2

143.7

141

138.6

138.1

135.3

122

113.1

104

103.8

102.8

2000 GHG emissions

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2000 GHG emissions

USA1779.7

China1336

Indonesia834.5

Brazil604.4

Russia538.4

India490.5

Japan365.1

Germany269.9

Malaysia237

Canada201.9

UK179.8

Mexico165.8

Italy144.2

South Korea143.7

Ukraine2141

Myanmar138.6

France138.1

Australia135.3

Iran122

South Africa113.1

Venezuela104

Poland103.8

Turkey102.8

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2000 GHG emissions

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TROPICALDEFORESTATION(c) WWF-Canon / Juan PRATGINESTOS

GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS AND DEFORESTATION~80% Fossil Fuel ~20% Land Deforestation

DEFORESTATION VS FOSSIL FUELS

MAJOR DEFORESTATION COUNTRIES (2000)WRI (2005)GHGs (MtC eq)

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699.5

374.5

190.8

116.1

39.3

26.4

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Indonesia699.5

Brazil374.5

Malaysia190.8

Myanmar116.1

Venezuela39.3

Mexico26.4

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DEFORESTATION IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON (2003)Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, 2004.Deforestation 2002/2003Deforestation until 20022.4 millions ha/yr deforested 60 millions ha deforested 16% of Brazilian Amazon

2050 BUSINESS AS USUAL

Deforested 2,698,735 km2 (16 PgC by 2050)Forest 3,320,409 km2Non-forest 1,497,685 km2Soares-Filho et al. 2004

2050 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO

Deforested 1,655,734 km2 (Reduction: 40%)Forest 4,363,410 km2Non-forest1,497,685 km2Soares-Filho et al. 2004Solutions:- Public governance & Law enforcement- Land use management- Sustainable forest management- Protected areas

ENERGY SECTOR

IN BRASILBy 2020- Growth in power consumption slashed by 40%- Power avoided = five times the Itaipu hydropower plant - USD 15 Billion savings, 10M new jobs

Represent a 1/3 of residential power demandAccording to IEA, potential for large power savingsBy 2020, ambitious efficiency standards would: Reduce average refrigerator consumption by 40% Energy savings of over 4.5 Billion USDSOLUTION 1 DOMESTIC APPLIANCES

THE PROBLEM ELECTRIC WATER HEATERS1/3 of home electricity bills, 8% of national power needsConsumers cost ~ $ 10 $ 1800 in electricity generation and distributionElectric water heating for 5 million new homes = one large dam in the Amazon or 5 coal fired power station

SOLUTION 2SOLAR WATER HEATERS

Consumers cost ~ 1100 for 4-people solar water heaterMonthly power bill cut by up to 50%, bay-back period of 3 yearsArchitectural and consumers credit barriers

Growing production/trade of biofuels Biofuels are a climate solution provided the reduce GHGs emissions Potential pilot project in Brazil to produce sustianable biofuels (eg biofuels supply for the bus fleet of the London Greater AuthoritySOLUTION 3BIOFUELS

SOLUTION 1INDUSTRIAL MOTORSPower plants have a low efficiency ~40%, that is 60% waste energy in the atmosphereIn Brazil, over 50% of industrial power consumption depends on electric motorsWith a 5% efficiency improvement would: save energy equivalent to 6,5 billions kWh R$ 1.04 billion per year

Figure from National Institute for Space Research (INPE). 2005. Figures obtained from the National Institute for Space Research website, www.inpe.br, cited August 29, 2005. Figure from National Institute for Space Research (INPE). 2005. Figures obtained from the National Institute for Space Research website, www.inpe.br, cited August 29, 2005. To have a exact dimension how tropical deforestation reduction could be a very important action to mitigate climate change, I would like to show some data on Brazilian deforestation. In this picture you have deforestation until 2002 (in red color) and a more recently deforestation for 2003. Only the deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia release to atmosphere 200 millions t of C /yr. It represents 2-3% of global carbon emission.