Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Project Number: TA 8882 April 2016

LAO: Northern Rural Infrastructure Development

Sector Project – Due Diligence for Additional

Financing

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB – Asian Development Bank CRU – Climatic Research Unit (of the University of East Anglia, UK) GCM – Global Climate Model IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MAF – Ministry of Finance NRIDP – Northern Rural Infrastructure Development Project PPO – Project Provincial Office RCP – Representative Concentration Pathways REA – Rapid Environmental Assessment WUA – water user association WUG – water user group

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES ha – Hectare km – Kilometer mm – Millimeter m3 – cubic meter km2 – square kilometer

NOTE

In this report, "$" refers to US dollars.

CONTENTS

Page

I. OVERVIEW 1

A. Background 1 B. Project Description 1

II. CLIMATE RISK SCREENING 4

A. Current Climate 4 B. Climate Change Predictions 4 C. Anticipated Climate Related Risks 8 D. Climate Screening 9

III. ASSESSING ADAPTATION NEEDS 10

A. Impact Assessment 10 B. Vulnerability Assessment 13 C. Adaptation Assessment 14

IV. REFERENCES 15

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Location of Bokeo, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay and Phongsaly Provinces in Northern Lao PDR 1

Figure 2: Baseline vs. Future Monthly Mean Precipitation for the Moung Nouy and Luang Prabang Catchments 5

Figure 3: Past vs. Predicted Monthly Precipitation at the Nam Oun Site Under Different Emissions Scenarios 6

Figure 4: Past vs. Predicted Monthly Temperature at the Nam Oun Site Under Different Emissions Scenarios 7

Figure 5: Changes in Annual Temperature in the Nam Oun Area Over the Last Century 8

Figure 6: Changes in Annual Precipitation in the Nam Oun Area Over the Last Century 8

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Annual rainfall data for Oudomxay province 4

Table 2: Effect of use of diversified crop mix to reduce water requirement 10

Table 3: Observed flows and design flows for the Nam Oun and Nam Beng Schemes 11

Table 4: Assessment of impacts of risks associated with increased precipitation 12

Table 5: Vulnerability Assessment 13

I. OVERVIEW

A. Background 1. This Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment is part of the due diligence undertaken for the preparation of the Northern Rural Infrastructure Development Project (NRIDP) - Additional Financing in Lao PDR. Environment and Climate Change Screening, utilizing the ADB's Rapid Environmental Assessment (REA) tool, identified moderate climate risks. This assessment examines the nature and extent of risks, the impact on the project, the assets to be built under the project and its beneficiaries, and identifies measures to enhance effective climate change adaptation. B. Project Description

1. Location

2. The Overall Project (refers to the on-going project with additional financing) will be carried out the four provinces of Bokeo, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay, and Phongsaly. Figure 1 presents the geographic location of the Overall Project.

Figure 1: Location of Bokeo, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay and Phongsaly Provinces in Northern Lao PDR

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2. Project Design Summary

3. The Impact, Outcome, and Output statements of the Overall Project remain unchanged from the NRIDP. However, the indicators are updated for the change in scope. The Overall Project Development Monitoring Framework is presented in Appendix 2. These are presented in the Development Monitoring Framework found in the project administration manual.

Impact: Improved rural household incomes in the four Northern provinces of Bokeo, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay, and Phongsaly.

Outcome: Increased agricultural productivity in Bokeo, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay, and Phongsaly.

Output 1: Production and productivity enhancing rural infrastructure constructed and/or rehabilitated.

4. This output will include the rehabilitation and/or construction of small to medium-scale gravity-fed irrigation systems and the rehabilitation and/or upgrading of rural access roads. Under the Overall Project, investment in infrastructure development will be expanded to Oudomxay province, which did not receive any such assistance under the NRIDP. Support for rural access roads will be scaled down under the additional financing, except for improvements to rural access in and around the irrigation schemes.

5. It is estimated that approximately 48 infrastructure subprojects will be implemented under the Overall Project in the 11 participating districts of the targeted provinces. Feasibility studies have already been carried out for two sample subprojects during project preparation, which will facilitate quick implementation following loan approval.

Output 2: Productivity and impact enhancing initiatives adopted.

6. As with the NRIDP, this output under additional financing will include initiatives to enhance the impact and sustainability of investments in rural infrastructure. The investments will be identified in a participatory and gender-sensitive manner from a menu of options developed with the respective stakeholders and beneficiaries including (i) strengthening technical extension services to subproject beneficiaries; (ii) establishment of producer groups to coordinate supplies of agricultural produce to markets and/or processors; (iii) support for contracted agricultural production with price incentives based on quality; and (iv) initiatives to secure tenure and access to land for sedentary agricultural production and land re-zoning to protect the integrity of watersheds above rehabilitated irrigation schemes, among others. These will be closely linked to infrastructure investments and included in the investment costs for each subproject. Capacity building will be an integral requirement of all activities to ensure that women and vulnerable ethnic groups have the necessary skills to fully participate and benefit from these activities.

Output 3: Capacities of national, provincial and district agencies strengthened to enable a sector development approach.

7. Under the NRIDP, this output is addressing capacity building at the national level (within the Ministry of Finance [MAF]) as well as the implementation capacity for staff at the National Project Management Office, the Provincial Project Offices (PPOs) and the District Coordination Offices. Capacity building efforts will continue under the additional financing principally at the district level, but will also address requirements of PPO in Oudomxay as a new recipient of investment funds under the Overall Project. The additional financing will also provide resources

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to prepare an irrigation subsector review to provide MAF, ADB and other stakeholders with a clearer view of the framework in which they are currently investing.

Output 4: Efficient and effective delivery of subprojects and project management.

8. Under the additional financing, the National Project Management Office will continue to manage the Overall Project with the assistance of the PPOs in the participating provinces. The additional financing will continue to provide adequate resources for operation and administration, as well as consulting services for implementation support and technical expertise needed to implement subprojects and project management.

3. Sample Subprojects

9. To facilitate project preparation, feasibility studies including preliminary designs and safeguards documents have been prepared for two representative sample subprojects. This assessment makes reference to the designs and characteristics of these. Both are situated in Oudomxai Province:

a. The Nam Beng Subproject

10. The Nam Beng Irrigation Subproject is composed of three irrigation schemes, (i) Nam Beng 1; (ii) Nam Met; and (iii) Houay Lor. Nam Beng 1 and Nam Met irrigation schemes are located near each other with the same beneficiary village, Ban Namet. Principal components are three irrigation schemes, the (i) Nam Beng scheme; (ii) Nam Met scheme; and (iii) Houay Lor scheme. The subproject will include development of a Catchment Management Plan for the area upstream of the river and establishment of a Water Users’ Association (WUA) and capability development. The WUA capacity building will focus on Water Users’ Group (WUG)/WUA Management, WUA/WUG financial management and irrigation system operation and maintenance training. 11. The subproject aims to increase the effective irrigated crop area of the system from 200 ha to 386 ha The cropping system that will be introduced to maximize the use of irrigation water will be rice during the wet season and rice/other crops during the dry season.

b. The Nam Oun Subproject

4. Nam Oun Irrigation Subproject is composed of one irrigation scheme, “Nam Oun irrigation scheme”. The center of the Subproject is located at Ban Fen, 4 km from Houn district center (Ban Phonsavanh), composed of five beneficiary villages, Ban Nam Oun, Ban Fen, Ban Chantai, Ban Nongdinh and Ban Nathong with a total beneficiary of 1,208 households. 12. The subproject aims to increase the effective irrigated crop area of the system from 250 ha to 420 ha. The cropping system that will be introduced to maximize the use of irrigation water will be rice during the wet season and rice/other crops during the dry season.

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II. CLIMATE RISK SCREENING A. Current Climate

13. The Northern part of Lao PDR has a warm temperate climate1 featuring dry winters and hot summers. The dry season occurs between November and February while the wet season occurs between May and October. The dry season is generally cooler, though temperatures rise significantly in March and April prior to the onset of the rains. Rainfall data is available at provincial level and Table 1 gives monthly averages across the year for Oudomxay Province.

Table 1: Annual Rainfall Data for Oudomxay Province

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Tot

(mm)

2005 3.6 0.4 143.7 98.6 169.2 219.8 333.4 456.5 119.1 27.8 15.1 34.6 1,622

2006 0.0 54.8 43.6 128.2 102.1 101.4 303.7 283.7 53.0 68.6 2.1 0.0 1,341

2007 1.5 23 29.2 128.2 238.9 146.0 146.1 293.1 192.2 95.2 45.4 0.1 1,339

2008 65.9 29.8 73.4 115.7 103.1 218.0 452.5 384.2 327.5 145.9 74.8 13.4 2,004

2009 0.0 0.0 28.4 131.4 163.0 262.1 329.4 207.3 172.4 28.4 9.4 8.5 1,340

2010 30.4 2.6 37.3 159.2 161.3 103.0 277.1 198.9 109.5 36.7 2.1 34.5 1,153

2011 13.6 0.0 102.8 222.6 264.9 212.8 253.9 233.2 395.6 65.6 13.0 0.6 1,779

2012 56.6 2 12.5 117.3 254.7 204.7 357.3 478.5 72.7 54.9 69.2 1.1 1,682

2013 25.7 23.2 54.1 122.6 80.8 169.2 461.2 386.6 231.4 55.7 68.9 124.6 1,804

Mean 21.9 15.1 58.3 136.0 170.9 181.9 323.8 346.9 185.9 64.3 33.3 24.2 1,563

14. Temperature averages between 17.7oC and 29.1oC over the year, with lowest temperatures of around 11.3oC occurring in January, and reaching 22.4oC in August. Relative humidity varies from around 45% in March to close to 100% in December, January and February. Evaporation averages over 55 mm, exceeding 45 mm for most of the year.

15. Existing climate variability has an impact on rural livelihoods and agriculture. Table 1 for example shows that in some years (late 2006/early 2007 and 2009) the dry season can be severe, with no rain recorded for two consecutive months while in others (late 2007/early 2008) the province experienced significant rainfall over the dry season, including relatively wet months in the middle of the dry season (for example, January rainfall in 2008, 2012 and 2013). Similarly, the intensity of rainfall in the wet season can vary significantly (rainfall in the month of July ranges from 146 to 461 mm for example) and the onset and cessation of seasonal rains can vary. Of further significance to agriculture based livelihoods is the fact that the hydrology of the catchments is affected by land use change, particularly intensification of shifting cultivation, or the establishment of large plantations, while the soils of the area are, in relative terms, heavily leached and acidic with low retention capacity.

B. Climate Change Predictions

16. Climate change predictions for the Mekong region as a whole, based on a range of different scenarios, models and geographical scales, agree that the Mekong subregion is predicted to experience a temperature rise of between 0.01oC and 0.036oC per year. Seasonal

1 Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A, (2007), Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate

classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, University of Melbourne.

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precipitation patterns, pointing to a longer dry season and increased incidence of extreme weather events such as typhoons are also predicted2. 17. More specific predictions have been made in a 2008 study3 using data prepared at a resolution of approximately 50km using interpolation of observed values, based on mid range emissions scenarios and analysis of the findings of 24 Global Climate Models (GCMs), applied to 18 major catchments in or around the Mekong basin. The project area lies within two of these catchments, the Moung Nouy (the 26,044 km2 catchment of the Moung Nouy river) and Luang Prabang, (a 56,801km2 sub-catchment of the Mekong). The 2008 study predicted an increase in temperature of 0.8 to 0.9 oC between the present (based on the historical average) and the predicted 2030 median temperature (based on selected GCMs). In terms of precipitation the study indicated a slight increase (11 – 15 mm in annual average) for the Moung Nouy and Luang Prabang catchments including greater dry season level of precipitation, although there is significant uncertainty as the different GCMs predict a range of future precipitation levels, see Figure 2. The predictions concur with those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its Fifth Assessment Report, which while having a broader focus, also uses a number of climate models. For the Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC has based predictions on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and a suite of climate models. The RCPs are based on greenhouse gas concentrations and four have been developed, reflecting possible climate futures which vary in terms of levels of greenhouse gasses emitted in the future. The predictions of climate change have been applied at nine regional levels, with Lao PDR falling in the Asia region. The Fifth Assessment Report presents the results of multi model analysis on two separate RCPs, comparing the change in annual temperature from the 1986 - 2005 mean for the middle and the late part of the 21st century. The presentation includes an indication of the extent to which models agree on the extent of the change. The IPCC predicts a slight increase in precipitation in the project area, under RCP 2.6 (where emissions of greenhouse gasses peak between 2010 and 2020 then decline, and under RCP 8.5 (where emissions of greenhouse gasses continue to rise throughout this century). A strong agreement between models is indicated for these changes in precipitation. For temperature, a change of around 2oC by the mid 21st century and 3oC by the late 21st century is predicted for RCP 8.5. For RCP 2.6 the change over the 21st century is in the range of 0.5 to 1oC 4.

Figure 2: Baseline vs. Future Monthly Mean Precipitation for the Moung Nouy and Luang

Prabang Catchments

Source: Eastham et al, 2008.

2 MRC (2010). Impacts of climate change an development on Mekong flow regime, First assessment - 2009. MRC

technical paper. MRC Vientiane. 3 Eastham, J., F. Mpelasoka, M. Mainuddin, C.Ticehurst, P. Dyce, G. Hodgson, R. Ali and M. Kirby, (2008). Mekong

River Basin Water Resources Assessment: Impacts of Climate Change. CSIRO: Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship.

4 IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014, Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Part B: Regional aspects, p1335. Geneva www.ipcc.ch.

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18. Focusing on the subproject areas within Oudomxay Province, data was obtained from the Climate Change Data Distribution System (SEA START) of the Greater Mekong Subregion Core Environment Program5. SEA START provides historical data up to 2009 and predicted data under greenhouse gas scenarios A2 and B26 on specified locations within the Greater Mekong Subregion, at a 20 km2 resolution. For the Nam Oun subproject, data was obtained for precipitation and temperature, over the past 20 years, the next 20 years under GHG A2 scenarios and under B2 scenarios, see Figure 3 and Figure 4.

Figure 3: Past vs. Predicted Monthly Precipitation at the Nam Oun Site Under Different Emissions Scenarios

5 Southeast Asia START Regional Center. Tool hosted and maintained by the GMS Environment Operations Center

(www.gms-eoc.org). 6 The Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions scenarios envisage different patterns of international development and

societal change. The A2 scenarios, characterised as a "more divided world" envisages primarily self reliant nations, continuously increasing population and regionally orientated economic development. The B2 scenarios, characterised as a "world more divided and more ecologically friendly" envisages continuous population at a slower rate than A2, localised rather than global moves to economic social and environmental stability, intermediate levels of economic development and relatively less rapid technological change. A1B is based on the A1 scenario of rapid economic and global population growth, (with population rising to 9 billion then declining), more rapid development of technology and energy efficiency, and in general a more "convergent" world in terms of levels of income and ways of life.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0 3 6 9 12

Ave

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m)

Months

Overall mth ave 1989 to 2009

Overall mth ave A2 2010 to 2030

Overall mth ave B2 2010 to 2030

Overall mth ave A1B 2010 to 2030

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Figure 4: Past vs. Predicted Monthly Temperature at the Nam Oun Site Under Different Emissions Scenarios

19. The broader, multi-model predictions, by the IPCC (2014) and by Estham et al (2008) suggest a slight increase in both temperature and precipitation, although the area-focused predictions using SEA START suggest that while under scenario A2, there could be reduced precipitation in coming decades, albeit this is noticeable in the wet months rather than in the dry season. Conversely, the B2 scenario appears to show, under the SEA START data, a slightly slower start to the wet season although the period of rapid increase, namely April/May, is shown for both scenarios as well as historical data. Significantly, the models show less variation for dry season months than for wet season months. 20. The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia has developed data for areas around the globe with a resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree grids, using archived data from weather stations globally and a process of interpolation.7 This data, known as CRU TS 3.23, enables changes over the 20th century to the present to be viewed. Plots of the data were obtained for the Nam Oun subproject area, both for annual temperature and for annual precipitation. Figure 5 shows temperature changes, featuring a high temperature period in the late 1920s, after which it dropped to a plateau between the 1950s and 1970s, rising to regain the levels of the late 1920s around the year 2000. Over the last decade, temperatures appear to rise although greater variability is also apparent. Precipitation changes shown on Figure 6 however, show a slight drop around the 1950s, followed by a steady rise until the late 1980s, and a further rise since then which appears to continue although again, greater variability is apparent.

7 Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. and Lister, D.H. (2014), Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic

observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int. J. Climatol., 34: 623–642.

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30

32

34

36

38

40

42

0 3 6 9 12

Ave

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mp

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Month

Overall mth ave 1989 to 2009

Overall mth ave A2 2010 to 2030

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Figure 5: Changes in Annual Temperature in the Nam Oun Area Over the Last Century

Figure 6: Changes in Annual Precipitation in the Nam Oun Area Over the Last Century

21. In summary, the climate change predictions indicate a range of outcomes, particularly over different emissions scenarios. The IPCC and Eastham et al predictions, which are based on multi-model analysis, suggest greater precipitation with climate change, (with increasing risks described in section IIIA of this report) although significant risks of drier conditions also exist. C. Anticipated Climate Related Risks

22. Risks are identified both with climate change and with current climate variability. The 2008 study (Eastham et al) summarizes potential impacts of climate change for both the Moung Nuoy and Luang Prabang catchments as Agricultural productivity decreased; Existing food scarcity increased; Temperature and annual precipitation increased; Dry season precipitation increased; Annual runoff increased; Dry season runoff increased; Potential for increased flooding (not quantified).

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23. Damaging floods occur in northern Lao PDR, and severe floods have occurred in recent years. Floods in neighboring Luang Prabang during 2015 were described by villagers as unprecedented, and severe damage occurred as a result of tropical storm Haima in 2011. The predicted increases in precipitation can be expected to result in greater severity of flooding events. In small catchments where NRIDP subprojects are situated, this means greater risks of landslides within the catchments, from the build-up of soil moisture under conditions of prolonged precipitation, exacerbated by increased scour from higher stream flows. Under extreme conditions, agricultural fields, irrigation infrastructure and homes may be affected.

24. Predictions vary slightly as to changes in the level of precipitation, as described in section B above. These do not appear to show strong changes for precipitation during the dry season, but there are existing levels of uncertainty regarding the dry season availability of water in the streams under current conditions. This is significant because each subproject enables irrigated agriculture to take place during the dry season, albeit for a limited area. In the absence of data on dry season flow volumes and how they vary from year to year, it is difficult to manage the scheme such that a minimum flow, necessary for the integrity of the aquatic ecosystem, is maintained downstream of the scheme, and also to make allocation decisions for competing water uses, such as new or improved water supply schemes. However, on a basin wide scale for the whole Mekong basin, the major source of water loss to the atmosphere is via evapotranspiration from forest and other non-cultivated land, utilizing 29% of basin precipitation. Rainfed agriculture accounts for a further 10%, while irrigated agriculture uses less than 5% as it is the least extensive land use. Similarly, combined domestic and industrial uses account for a minor portion of basin precipitation. (Eastham et al 2008, p44).

25. The change in moisture and temperature regime can affect production, both in terms of the growth response of different crops to temperature changes, and in terms of the change in balance between rainfall and evaporation, which can reduce productivity for some crops. Yields are also significantly affected by changing in the timing of seasonal rains.

D. Climate Screening

26. Screening took place as part of the REA for the project, which identified climate related risks in connection with the location and design of the project vulnerability of the project and its outputs to existing and future climate conditions. The REA is attached as Annex 1. The project AWARE tool was also applied, which uses a database of climate related phenomena related to location, and identified flooding and to a lesser extent, precipitation decrease as potential risk areas. The findings of the AWARE tool are presented in Annex 2. Building on these findings, the foregoing review of existing information and analysis of past and projected climatic conditions, yields the following key risks associated with irrigated agriculture to be supported by the project:

(i) Greater incidence and severity of flooding events (ii) Higher stream flows (iii) Higher peak flows in canal systems (iv) Soil saturation in slopes in the catchment area (v) Risks associated with uncertainty over dry season water availability

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III. ASSESSING ADAPTATION NEEDS

A. Impact Assessment

27. An assessment of the magnitude of climatic related risks is made in consideration of project and subproject design features.

1. Drought

28. The following features have been taken into account in the design of system improvements for the subprojects with regard to water availability:

(i) Determination of design flow. The design team estimated dry season flows based on observations made on site during the dry season and calculations based on catchment size. In the absence of systematic streamflow measurements, there are uncertainties over the actual dry season discharge that will occur at the height of the dry season, and in "dry" years.

(ii) Dry Season Irrigable area: The irrigation facilities will improve water to two irrigated rice crops per year, one during the wet season and one during the dry season. During the wet season, water availability is high, and the water from the irrigation system supplements rainwater to meet the requirement for good plant growth. This allows the area cultivated during the wet season to be expanded. During the dry season, crop cultivation is reliant on water from the irrigation system but in the case of each scheme, a much reduced area will be irrigated during the dry season. For the Nam Beng scheme, a total irrigable area of 200 ha was allocated for the dry season (compared to 386 ha for the wet season) and for the Nam Oun scheme, a total irrigable area of 150 ha (compared to 420 ha for the wet season).

(iii) Dry season crop mix: System design envisages a mix of crops including green beans, cabbage, watermelon, soyabean, peanuts and pumpkin which have different water requirements in comparison to rice. The mix favors those with a lower requirement and will be promoted by extension activities during implementation. To estimate the effect of using the dry season crop mix, the water requirement for the mix in the case of the two schemes (Nam Beng and Nam Oun) was estimated based on the mix in the feasibility study report, and data on crop requirements relative to irrigated rice.

Table 2: Effect of Use of Diversified Crop Mix to Reduce Water Requirement

Crop Water requirement in relation to irrigated rice8

Nam Beng Scheme: Area to be planted (ha)

Nam Oun Scheme: Area to be planted (ha)

Watermelon 0.1 45 45

Cabbage 0.1 30 30

Garlic 0.3 20 20

8 Obtained using data from: Mekonnen, M.M. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2010) The green, blue and grey water footprint of

crops and derived crop products, Value of Water Research Report Series No. 47, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands.

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Crop Water requirement in relation to irrigated rice8

Nam Beng Scheme: Area to be planted (ha)

Nam Oun Scheme: Area to be planted (ha)

Maize 0.7 0 4

Rice 1.0 0 5

Soybean 1.4 10 10

Peanut 1.8 10 10

Pumpkin 0.2 0 40

Green Bean 0.3 35 35

Total Area 150 199

Approximate total requirement in comparison to irrigated rice 0.37 0.35

29. While the dry season flow has been estimated by means of field observations, and therefore subject to uncertainty, the reduced command area allocated for dry season use, combined with the use of a mix of crops with around one third of the water requirement for paddy rice, providing a further margin of safety, should dry season flows fall below the levels expected.

2. Increased precipitation

30. The design of the two schemes included as representative subprojects has been based on observations of stream flow, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Observed Flows and Design Flows for the Nam Oun and Nam Beng Schemes

Flow level Nam Oun Scheme9

Nam Beng Scheme10

Nam Oun Stream Nam Beng Stream

Nam Met Stream Houay Lor Stream

Peak stream flow (25 year occurrence)

125 m3/s 125 m3/s 85 m3/s

Peak stream flow (50 year occurrence)

158 m3/s 150 m3/s 115 m3/s

Observed Wet Season Normal Flow

3.5 m3/s 12 m3/s 10.5 m3/s 2.1 m3/s

Observed Dry Season Flow

0.45 m3/s - - 0.25 m3/s

Design Minimum Flow

0.4 m3/s 1 m3/s 1.2 m3/s 0.2 m3/s

9 Nippon Koei/NIACONSULT/Lao Consulting Group (2015). Feasibility Study on Nam Oun Irrigation Subproject

Houn District, Oudomxay Province. Annex 2: Concept Engineering Design, Drawings and Bill of Quantities. 10 Nippon Koei/NIACONSULT/Lao Consulting Group (2015). Feasibility Study on Nam Beng Irrigation Subproject

Beng District, Oudomxay Province. Annex 2: Concept Engineering Design, Drawings and Bill of Quantities.

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31. Improvements cover the replacement of existing damaged weirs with reinforced concrete gravity type weirs, water control structures and concrete lined canals, although some earth canals in each scheme remain unlined (for the sample subprojects, 600 m of the 4,460 m canal network for the Nam Beng scheme and 2,678 m of the 9,650 m canal network for the Nam Oun scheme).

32. The project as a whole includes, as an associated measure, support to land use planning to foster watershed management activities such as tree planting and restrictions on certain cultivation activities. This is intended to enhance the integrity of the watersheds.

33. Table 4 below assesses the impact of risks associated with higher precipitation.

Table 4: Assessment of Impacts of Risks Associated with Increased Precipitation

Source of risk Impact on irrigation infrastructure and irrigated crops

Features of the project that govern the level of impact

Assessment

Greater incidence and severity of flooding events

Damage to crops, irrigation infrastructure other public and privately owned assets

Design of the system based on Q50-year flood level

Resilience to flooding increased

Higher stream flows

Wash out, silting and blockage of headworks

Improvements to headworks and control structures

Increased resilience of the schemes

Undercutting of slopes in the catchment area

Watershed management planning and related activities

Remains a significant risk as the topography is steep and vegetation cover degraded in much of the project area

Higher peak flows in canal systems

Volume of water: capacities of canals temporarily exceeded

Concrete lining of most of canal networks

Earthen canals remain at risk

Velocity of water: increased risk of collapse of canals (especially earthen canals) and scour around water control structures. Potential dislodging of water control structures

Concrete lining of most of canal networks; improved control structures

Earthen canals remain at risk

Soil saturation from prolonged periods of continuous precipitation

Slumping of slopes in the catchment area, causing large scale soil erosion and potential silting and blockage of the headworks

Watershed management planning and related activities. Improvements to the headworks (concrete weirs; improved intakes)

Resilience to flooding increased

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B. Vulnerability Assessment

34. Table 5 below assesses the present and future vulnerabilities that threaten the project, the assets it will develop and its beneficiaries and identifies the key determinants of the vulnerabilities.

Table 5: Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerabilities Key Determinants of Vulnerability

Extreme dry season flows, causing flows into the streams to drop to levels below those required to sustain aquatic ecosystems

Over-extraction for irrigation during the dry season

Occurrence of extreme dry years

Potential abstraction for other water uses, without adequate information on safe offtake quantities

Slope failure within the watershed for each scheme, particularly close to the headworks where significant damage can be caused by slumping when soil is saturated, undercutting during faster stream flows, or a combination

Increasing precipitation, anticipated with climate change, especially over prolonged periods

Level of land use planning and implementation of planned activities to enhance the integrity of the watersheds

Failure of the canal network under sustained flooding conditions, by slumping (mainly in earthen canals) and piping of material underneath concrete linings

Increasing precipitation

Remaining earthen canals

Inadequate maintenance and repair of canal linings

Damage to headworks from higher sediment laden stream flows Increasing precipitation.

Poor quality vegetation cover in the watersheds

Impaired plant growth Changes in temperature, timing of seasonal rains and other conditions affecting the quality of plant growth

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C. Adaptation Assessment

1. Rationale for Improved Adaptation

35. The project design incorporates measures that serve the purpose of climate change adaptation, notably significant improvements to existing infrastructure (such as replacing weirs with substantial reinforced concrete structures) and land use planning leading to activities that improve slope strength and the integrity of the watersheds. However, the effectiveness of these measures, particularly the construction of improved infrastructure, is significantly dependent on the quality of design and of construction. Measures to ensure quality are therefore an important adaptation strategy. This is borne out by the fact that many of the schemes to be included in the project are ones that had been built previously through government and/or donor investment which have developed defects or in some case have failed completely. Quality applies to design, choice of materials, workmanship and technical supervision. 36. Further adaptation may be achieved by incremental improvements to measures already included, such as designing for greater than 50 year flood return periods, and greater technical and financial assistance to watershed management activities. 37. A major difficulty with adaptation for dry years arises from the fact that very little information specific to the source streams for the schemes is available. An understanding of patterns of dry season flow is necessary, to determine reliably allowable irrigable areas and sharing arrangements for competing water uses. Stream level measurement is therefore recommended as an adaptation measure. To overcome frequent difficulties with manual measurements in rural areas, the use of automatic stream level reading devices coupled to data loggers is recommended.

2. Recommended Measures.

38. The following are recommended as climate adaptation measures:

(i) Improved design of headworks, distribution systems and drainage; (ii) Improved construction quality; (iii) Capacity development for local engineers in quality control of scheme design and

construction; (iv) Improved river bank protection; (v) Better watershed management (starting with land use planning, preferably

participatory land use planning, to improve vegetation cover in the watersheds and improve the strength of slopes);

(vi) Improved awareness of available crop varieties (especially rice) to cope with flood situations (floating rice maybe) or dry situations;

(vii) Regular streamflow measurements using automated logging equipment to build knowledge about streamflow availability, to help dry season water usage planning.

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IV. REFERENCES Eastham, J., F. Mpelasoka, M. Mainuddin, C.Ticehurst, P. Dyce, G. Hodgson, R. Ali and M. Kirby, (2008). Mekong River Basin Water Resources Assessment: Impacts of Climate Change. CSIRO: Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship. Government of Lao PDR (2009) National Adaptation Programme of Action on Climate Change. Vientiane. Government of Lao PDR (2013) Second National Communication to The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change. Vientiane. Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. and Lister, D.H. (2014), Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int. J. Climatol., 34: 623–642. IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014, Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Part B: Regional aspects, p1335. Geneva www.ipcc.ch Kirby, M., M. Mainuddin, and J. Eastham 2010. Water-use accounts in CPWF basins: Simple water-use accounting of the Mekong Basin. CPWF Working Paper: Basin Focal Project series, BFP02. Colombo, Sri Lanka: The CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. 26pp. Mekonnen, M.M. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2010) The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products, Value of Water Research Report Series No. 47, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands. MRC (2009) Adaptation to climate change in the countries of the Lower Mekong Basin: regional synthesis report. MRC Technical Paper No. 24. Mekong River Commission, Vientiane. 89 pp. MRC (2010). Impacts of climate change an development on Mekong flow regime, First assessment - 2009. MRC technical paper. MRC Vientiane. Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A, (2007), Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, University of Melbourne

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ANNEX 1: CLIMATE CHANGE SCREENING

Rapid Environmental Assessment (REA) Checklist Instructions: (i) The project team completes this checklist to support the environmental classification of a project. It

is to be attached to the environmental categorization form and submitted to the Environment and Safeguards Division (SDES) for endorsement by the Director, SDES and for approval by the Chief Compliance Officer.

(ii) This checklist focuses on environmental issues and concerns. To ensure that social dimensions are

adequately considered, refer also to ADB's (a) checklists on involuntary resettlement and Indigenous Peoples; (b) poverty reduction handbook; (c) staff guide to consultation and participation; and (d) gender checklists.

(iii) Answer the questions assuming the “without mitigation” case. The purpose is to identify potential

impacts. Use the “remarks” section to discuss any anticipated mitigation measures.

Country/Project Title: Sector Division:

Screening Questions Yes No Remarks

A. PROJECT SITING

IS THE PROJECT AREA ADJACENT TO OR WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE AREAS?

PROTECTED AREA

X Subproject selection criteria preclude candidate subprojects in or adjacent to protected areas

WETLAND

X

MANGROVE

X

ESTUARINE

X

BUFFER ZONE OF PROTECTED AREA

X

SPECIAL AREA FOR PROTECTING BIODIVERSITY

X

All subprojects will involve rehabilitation of existing irrigation facilities, or, when canal networks are extended, these shall be within cultivated areas

B. POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

WILL THE PROJECT CAUSE…

loss of precious ecological values (e.g. result of encroachment into forests/swamplands or historical/cultural buildings/areas, disruption of hydrology of natural waterways, regional flooding, and drainage hazards)?

X

Weirs are necessary for the functioning of the irrigation systems. To enable aquatic life migration up and downstream, rock ramps (fish ramps) will be integrated into the weir design mitigating the disruption of aquatic ecosystems.

Lao PDR: Northern Rural Infrastructure Development Project - AF

SEER/SERD

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Screening Questions Yes No Remarks

conflicts in water supply rights and related social conflicts?

X

FWUGs will receive training and capacity building to avoid or manage any conflicts that may arise in the future.

impediments to movements of people and animals? X

Existing canal crossings will not be affected. Provision will be made for new concrete canal crossings.

potential ecological problems due to increased soil erosion and siltation, leading to decreased stream capacity?

X

Output 2 provides for land use planning / rezoning in catchment areas to prevent or minimize soil erosion. Bioengineering approaches are used to design measures to stabilize environs near the infrastructure and at critical areas in the upstream watersheds

Insufficient drainage leading to salinity intrusion?

X Irrigation systems have adequate outfalls to existing waterways

over pumping of groundwater, leading to salinization and ground subsidence?

X

Groundwater sources will not be used

impairment of downstream water quality and therefore, impairment of downstream beneficial uses of water?

X

Any increased use of agro-chemicals will be offset by training in sustainable practices involving reduced or optimized use of pesticides and fertilizer.

dislocation or involuntary resettlement of people?

X

disproportionate impacts on the poor, women and children, Indigenous Peoples or other vulnerable groups?

X

potential social conflicts arising from land tenure and land use issues?

X

soil erosion before compaction and lining of canals?

X

noise from construction equipment?

X Construction will mainly involve labour based methods.

dust during construction?

X Mitigation provided for in EMP

waterlogging and soil salinization due to inadequate drainage and farm management?

X

Consultations confirm that over- irrigation resulting in salinization does not occur. Further, FWUGs will be given training in optimal water use.

leaching of soil nutrients and changes in soil characteristics due to excessive application of irrigation water?

X

No increase in existing levels expected practices

reduction of downstream water supply during peak seasons?

X

No reduction in water supply is expected, as increases in water supply are to be achieved mainly by reduced losses to seepage.

soil pollution, polluted farm runoff and groundwater, and public health risks due to excessive application of fertilizers and pesticides?

X

Any increased use of agro-chemicals will be offset by training in sustainable practices involving reduced or optimized use of pesticides and fertilizer.

soil erosion (furrow, surface)? X

Soil remains within impounded rice fields. The systems will feed existing rice fields.

scouring of canals?

X Canals will be strengthened

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Screening Questions Yes No Remarks

clogging of canals by sediments? X

Some minor risk, but regular maintenance takes place and will be encouraged

clogging of canals by weeds?

X As above

seawater intrusion into downstream freshwater systems?

X

introduction of increase in incidence of waterborne or water related diseases?

X

Risks will be reduced by improvements to the canals which will limit ponding and therefore habitats for insect vectors of disease

dangers to a safe and healthy working environment due to physical, chemical and biological hazards during project construction and operation?

X

Very limited hazards associated with mainly labour based construction methods to be used

large population influx during project construction and operation that causes increased burden on social infrastructure and services (such as water supply and sanitation systems)?

X

Only small groups of workers will be on site, however issues remain potentially significant.

social conflicts if workers from other regions or countries are hired?

X

As above

risks to community health and safety due to the transport, storage, and use and/or disposal of materials such as explosives, fuel and other chemicals during construction and operation?

X

Some minor risk

community safety risks due to both accidental and natural hazards, especially where the structural elements or components of the project (e.g., irrigation dams) are accessible to members of the affected community or where their failure could result in injury to the community throughout project construction, operation and decommissioning?

X

Limited risk

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A Checklist for Preliminary Climate Risk Screening

Country/Project Title: 42203-XXX-LAO: Northern Rural Infra Development Sector Project - Additional Financing

Sector : Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development

Subsector: Water-based Natural Resource Management

Division/Department: SEER / SERD

Screening Questions Score Remarks1

Location and Design of project

Is siting and/or routing of the project (or its components) likely to be affected by climate conditions including extreme weather related events such as floods, droughts, storms, landslides?

1 Infrastructure will be strengthened to withstand anticipated floods. Canals will be concrete-lined to increase the efficient utilization of water.

Would the project design (e.g. the clearance for bridges) need to consider any hydro-meteorological parameters (e.g., sea-level, peak river flow, reliable water level, peak wind speed etc)?

1 Hydrological analysis will be done to forecast the river flows, water availability and extreme floods/droughts

Materials and Maintenance

Would weather, current and likely future climate conditions (e.g. prevailing humidity level, temperature contrast between hot summer days and cold winter days, exposure to wind and humidity hydro-meteorological parameters likely affect the selection of project inputs over the life of project outputs (e.g. construction material)?

0 Irrigation infrastructure Improvements based on technical best practices and not affected. Material selection will suit current climate variability.

Would weather, current and likely future climate conditions, and related extreme events likely affect the maintenance (scheduling and cost) of project output(s) ?

1 Floods may affect infrastructure maintenance if not designed to

1 If possible, provide details on the sensitivity of project components to climate conditions, such as how climate

parameters are considered in design standards for infrastructure components, how changes in key climate parameters and sea level might affect the siting/routing of project, the selection of construction material and/or scheduling, performances and/or the maintenance cost/scheduling of project outputs.

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withstand those.

Performance of project outputs

Would weather/climate conditions, and related extreme events likely affect the performance (e.g. annual power production) of project output(s) (e.g. hydro-power generation facilities) throughout their design life time?

0 The project provides water during the dry season for additional cropping particularly in association with other yield enhancing technological interventions

Options for answers and corresponding score are provided below:

Response Score

Not Likely 0

Likely 1

Very Likely 2

Responses when added that provide a score of 0 will be considered low risk project. If adding all responses will result to a score of 1-4 and that no score of 2 was given to any single response, the project will be assigned a medium risk category. A total score of 5 or more (which include providing a score of 1 in all responses) or a 2 in any single response, will be categorized as high risk project.

Result of Initial Screening (Low, Medium, High) Medium Other Comments:__________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________ Prepared by: Consultant, S. Eagle; Marco Leidel

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ANNEX 2: AWARE RISK ASSESSMENT